Intra-Day Commentary--
Race 4: Duel never materialized, though in contrary manner to what we envisioned. Of the potential duelers-- one debuter scratches while Bravo on the other debuter(#4), breaks slowly-- while #1 bumps at the start & then elects to allow the eager 9 the lead all to itself. What bothered us the most though, was the low 5-1 value on our 7. At that price it likely wouldn't've passed our handicapping muster-- at such a price level one starts to 'find extra weaknesses"-- post position, possible slow start, etc... Speaking of, it ran about as well as it could, given a wide trip the entire race.
One consolation given the odds-on fave coming in-- 235 out remaining 646 entries are blanked so far. We now hope faves fall the rest of the way; and we have one longshot & one middle price choice remaining for the day.
Real irritated by life preserver info not getting updated yet(9pm)-- notice some blanked contestants with two preservers still. If just the top three/four contestants get eliminated, this contest then becomes totally wide open & up for grabs... this month is VERY crucial. If on the other hand, August finds some of the top contestants with three preservers, then they're gonna be almost impossible to beat.
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Very, very preliminary initial analysis-- we will add to it raceday eve.
We don't have any real Safe In the Money choice selected today, but so be it. We are now trying to make a move up the standings-- if we fall by the wayside so be it-- many contests loom that are much less demanding and carry substantially higher rewards(in addition to juggling regular investing obligations). It's the classic risk & reward dilemma, so if we are to continue making this considerable effort-- we want to do it from at least very good position / odds.
Race 4
Only one horse beats the race par here-- #7, when figure is adjusted for race trouble. She qualifies as a safe in the money choice-- and as well sports a decent morning line of 8-1... since we are not that impressed with either of the low-odds turf debuters, in spite of attracting top pilots both. Now, this doesn't mean one of the debuters or the pacesetting 1 will not win(if let go alone early), but she should still beat enough of these to at least garner a placing.
Conclusion: there is projectedly very little mutuel value here for most of these. Even our choice #7 is held at a fence-straddling Morning Line of 8-- she can drift in either direction odds-wise. She remains our choice though. IF she scratches, then we will likely select #5.
#7 Final Choice
1. 5/2 - 40 45 48 51% Obviously offers low value. She can ONLY win with a couple scenarios:
a. The 9 elects not to tangle with her early again(quite possible) and Joe Bravo on #4 allows her an uncontested lead(unlikely).
b. She is actually a closer so good and classy that she found herself battling the slow pace in her debut.
EDIT: its pace figures are subpar, so even though the race & course might be kind to frontrunners... if you wanted to play that angle we would suggest instead one of the debuters. Even if the other frontrunner were to scratch(thus potentially leaving her alone on the lead), we would NOT bet her-- not as the likely odds-on favorite & selectee of likely more than ½ the contestants(by post time).
2. 10 - 1 0 1% No chance.
EDIT: trainer 1 for 26 2nd career Turf race...and 8% on Turf Lifetime. Let's change No Chance status to Slightly Possible. She would need to show a much stronger closing kick-- connections may try laying a bit further back in order to encourage this.
3. 4 - 6 5 4% Even though she attracts Eddie Castro, there's not a lot to recommend here-- besides trainer Pletcher & sire FuPeg garnering an automatic strong Morning Line:
Turf Debut breeding stats are so-so & as well Pletcher's excellent Win % drops significantly in the Turf debut category. The workouts are too slow, too short to build up any stamina whatsoever, and worse-- have a recent gap. We would guess this race is more a fitness workout.
4. 7/2 - 33 27 24 17% Joe Bravo habitually attracts so many votes... We're not crazy about the Turf debut breeding stats, or the well-spaced out work tab.
5. 20 - 0% Puleeze........... Horse, trainer & jockey ALL need to be put up for a bargain price at the cheapest possible racetrack.
EDIT: let's backtrack here-- this horse has faced much faster early pace...could get brave late(although she HAS to throw a much improved closing fraction). She is now the Bud Longshot. Iffff #7 scratches, she may become our pick.
6. 9/2 - 11 12% Good closing kick... as well lost 2-3 lengths due to traffic in early stretch of last race... but this horse is just horrendously devoid of early speed. She will have to pray for a perfect threading late trip to have a chance.
EDIT: she has a chance, as do all closers here: whichever gets the best start & cleanest trip will likely be the winner... and she does have a very competent rider aboard. But the odds offer no appeal whatsoever.
7. 8 - 0 3 4 8% An almost ideal contest selection profile: double digit payoff while attracting zilch contestant attention. This horse looks to us as one who only runs well on grass. In her debut, she got bumped out of the gate, then moved up the rail until experiencing heavy traffic blockage the entire length of the stretch. The jockey change to Trujillo is positive: good gate & longshot skills.
8. 10 - 0% Mediocre debut, but one just never knows if connections were just waiting to bear down in second race... although that argument is not supported much by trainer stats: 4 for 42 second career race... 0 for 15 2nd Turf race(only 3 placings total too). The jock is having an abysmal Monmouth meet...
9. 5 - 5 3% No chance-- would have to miraculously show the ability to close. For those of you who frequent exchanges, this may be a good LAY candidate, with that semi-decent Morning Line.
EDIT: let's also backtrack here-- from no chance to Slightly Possible: if we assume the connections will try to not tangle with #1 early-- then one could also assume one or both debuters would keep #1 honest-- and she would pick up the pieces while laying closeup, then hold off the closers. Not very likely, and her odds preclude selecting her anyhow.
Race 8
Fairly mediocre field... we'll wait until we have adjusted figs & more stats. So far, 2, 3, & maybe 8 seem to have the only realistic win chance. 2 would be a safe choice, while 3 would be more of a longshot & value play with an element of risk.
EDIT: after adjusted figs and a more in-depth look:
#3 Final Choice
In this race we had to go back to last year for useable pacelines for several of these, as many have had plenty of excuse trips. The race looks like an early tussle between 4, 6 & 7. Of those, according to pace analysis, 4 should quit first-- the other two are about even with a slight edge to 7 if in tip top shape & because it will advantageably track outside the other two; as well its rider is much superior. We expect first place to be taken by one of the closers though-- as for instance, the 2 & 7 have the early number ability to sit just off the pace(or even contest it, thus adding to overall early pressure). The only question for the closers in this race will be one of being in shape AND improving form.
1. 20 - 0% Remove all wet surface pp's, as well as the first couple off extended layoff & the one with the troubled start-- and this horse does not look bad at all... and would have very competitive numbers. We would consider it more if it hadn't been offered for a price(and a very low one at that) last time. Of course it doesn't help to see the abysmal numbers being put up here by both jock and trainer. This horse is not an automatic throwout...it could get a perfect rail skimming, unobstructed trip all race...or not. BUT there are other longshots with more appealing qualities. We'll categorize it as Possible but Unlikely Longshot.
2. 7/2 - 19 22 26% Very, very dangerous-- has a back number to decimate this field...and very able jock. We just don't like that it was offered for a price last time... and worse, its low odds today make it an automatic pass(in light of the question marks especially). BTW that last Turf fig is bogusly high(Bris).
3. 12 - 5% This is our choice-- 3yo has the best chance of taking the leap upwards in form over its older rivals, has a good inside post and is ridden by one of our favorite longshot jockeys. Horse has had many of legitimate excuses in its pp''s that have helped to obscure its form(& thus odds). You won't see 90+-1 again though... and it is worth noting that the trainer has terrible pertinent stats: repeat win: 1 in 21, allowance races: 1 for 11, dirt races: 5% win from last 300. But we wish to ride this young horse's potential, improving form AND high morning line odds. As well too high a number of contestants have selected it, belying its high odds: 5%.... we can not afford to let so many contestants catch a longshot without us.
4. 6 - 4 5% As stated earlier, the most inferior of the early pace contestants...morning line atrociously low 6-1 given its chances.
5. 5 - 1 2 3% How can the ML on this horse be ONLY 5-1? 6yo, lifetime record: 38 2-8-11, @ Monmouth: 21 0-7-6. Trainer-- allowance races: 2% from 51.... has only two total starts in 2008 actually.
6. 5 - 10 9 10% Frontrunner likely will be sandwiched between others early. As well atrocious ML given its actual chances: 5-1
7. 7/2 - 13 16% The best of the early speedsters...with a top jock aboard. Has the numbers to clear early and the ability to press the pace(more likely). May be strung out wide early. Offers zero value as an expected contender for favorite status. Possible, esp. if the closers suffer bad trips / are not in top form. We prefer others at better odds here.
8. 3 - 44 36 31% Our backup choice if #3 scratches. We consider it the best candidate for Safe In the Money Status: it can sit just off the early pace(instead of contesting it) and thus post a much better final number, especially with that superior jockey change. Some doubts remain though: One-- best figure in pp's MUST be duplicated to have a chance. Two-- and very bothersome: last race fig was lengths lower than previous one(according to our figs & in marked opposition to Bris #'s. Three-- quality of past opposition inferior to most here. Still, if in form, it should advantageously be able to track not just the speedsters, but its other closing competitors from that post.
Race 9
Ditto. We'll try to beat the projected ridiculously-low odds favorite #9 btw. For now, we've selected #4.
EDIT: after adjusted figs and a more in-depth look:
#4 Final Choice
We "have to" avoid #9: odds-on choice picked by ½ the contestants.... dropping precipitously into a dirt sprint(?) 32 days later w/ no works(as well notice how last year's works are better than this year's).... Bravo off.....
Horrible, horrible race. Since none of the longshots show signs of life, we'll take #4 on 'potential' & closeup early position...in spite of 0 for 2008 jockey-- we'll trust his wily trainer.
Good luck. Any further edits tomorrow morning will be in blue color.
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