Top Selections for 7/26/2008
R# No. Name Vote %(including scratches' votes)
9 1 Ginger Punch 67%
8 5 Abraaj 9%
4 5 Unbr. Heart 7%
1 5 Rollers 6%
2 3 Munnings 1%
8 1 Thor's Echo 5/6%
6 6 White Tie 3/4%
7 4 Wait a While 2/3%
1 8 Benny the Wtr. 1/2%
We're certainly and MOST willing to sacrifice a single entry(Ginger Punch)-- along with over 2/3 of present entries!!!
Prize Pool--$36,390:
1st- $14,5562nd- 7,253
3rd- 3,639
4th- 2,911.20
5th- 2,365.35
6th- 1,819.50
7th- 1,455.60
8th- 1,091.70
9th- 727.80
10th- 545.85
PS re prize structure: Looks like more failed bank transactions keep returning-- over 1½ dozen today-- some 4-5 dozen since the contest start. Expect to see this continuing trickle into Monday & maybe Wednesday finally. As well we wouldn't be surprised to learn that some are due to disgruntled contestants calling their bank(s) to stop payment:
some wise guy could say, buy a bunch of entries-- and bet them all on just one horse each of the first few days....with the hope of having a lot of live ones.
See, after just one week of play the contestant pool should be down to the last 15%...maybe even only 5%. Such a wise guy would then have a very, very strong, advantageous hand...and if he fails, he calls his bank to block transaction or stop payment. Furthermore, if he's really wise, he won't pay any Stop Fees... or at most just 1. What a way to take a free shot!
But hey, NYRA shares the blame for changing processor(& thus credit card acceptance) in order to save a few bucks.
In fact, NYRA didn't even need to use anyone else other than Google Checkout(or similar other competitor)-- not only the cheapest option, but the one with the most diversified menu of payment options. That is one of the reasons the number of entries is a small fraction of previous contests-- apart from poor PR, inadequate budgeting & mediocre software utilized.
We would love to run this contest-- we would have prize pools in 7 figures dwarfing present 5-figure levels.
We won't update prize structure until end of next week...what's the use? Anyhow, it's only a few dollars less @ each level. And besides, we're going to sweep the top spots-- we've already spent that 25-30K.
We begin this fourth day thusly:
CONTESTANTS-- 60% already gone. As we've stated before, we need to see an avg. elimination rate of 17% daily so that the contest ends before the meet(thus avoiding tiebreakers). So far, the numbers have been: 24+, 29+, 25+ the first three days.
PERSONALLY-- 5 of 8 entries alive. We have played 11 total horses-- over ½ have outright won / 2 have finished unplaced(although w/ excuse: both got wiped out at the start)-- for a positive across-the-board ROI...which mimics almost all non-real money contests we enter. We need to hire someone to follow us around and bet our contest choices.
We feel very confident in light of above for accomplishing it in the face of trying weather / uncertain track conditions & @ the home of large fields & graveyard of champions / favorites. We will post a detailed summary after the last day of each racing week, Monday.
WEATHER-- Clear the rest of the way today & tomorrow....UNTIL the last ¼ of the card. That arriving rain will continue into the night, then fall on and off both Sunday & Monday. Following that, Tuesday will be dry & Wednesday will see some rain... & the end of that weather system.
OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW-- Large fields, which may or may not stay large depending on whether Turf racing gets canceled because of the pending late wet weather.
HEAVY FAVORITES / LAYOVERS-- A handful loom boldly.
See you @ scratch time.
UPDATED WEATHER:
No intra-card rain today, tomorrow, or Monday(only tonight-early morning). btw Turf rated GOOD today.
So, all Turf racing should proceed as normal, at least today & Monday.
Next week: rain forecasted for Wed thru Sunday.
SURFACE:
Only remaining question mark remains whether the track was sufficiently worked on, aided by sunny weather yesterday and now, to even out all negative features-- to wit: is rail and/or overall inside ok now & re overall course, is early speed not disadvantaged today... One degree further: are inside and/or early speed actually advantaged?
One possible contest single-play solution would be to play a quality chaser / stalker / presser drawn just outside the main speed.
SOME PARIMUTUEL LONGSHOT POSSIBILITIES-- Mind you, we're posting this before scratches, but we just don't have the time to wait until NYRA is good and ready-- or the inclination to subsequently do a mad, headless chicken handicap of the card just prior to posttime.
The two route Turf races-- 5 & 7-- afford very possible scores...not just due to the large field sizes, but each for its own reasons:
5th race: in this claiming race the experienced turf horses cannot beat the par time, so the winner may well be not only the lucky recipient of a good trip, but as well one of the surface debuters-- particularly one with adept soft ground lineage(& of course, the requisite physical conformation)...
continued.....
FIRSTLY THOUGH, CONTEST PICKS:
Races today are for the most part contentious--doh-- & more importantly: there are possible chinks in today's projectedly-huge favorites...
We're spread out to four choices... hopefully, if we've guessed correctly re how the track will play today, then tomorrow & Monday we'll be able to key on only one or two.
Right off the bat, we've got two of five entries on:
Race 1: #5 We're just too tempted by its top early fig and overall speed fig-- both open lengths better. ALTHOUGH we are worried over seeing only short works off the layoff-- where are the stamina & fitness-building longer works? But then, who are we to tell Barclay Tagg how to train a horse? As well, we'd've preferred it be drawn outside its main speed threat #8-- for both possible positive outside bias present today and being able to relax better on the duel.
The keys here will be two:
a. the surface NOT being unkind to early speed
b. former rider Coa on main adversary & "the only other entrant that can keep up early".... Is he hell-bent on a hot pace duel...or maybe wishes to take back early?
The remaining three choices each carry a single entry, and two of them, unfortunately, will be heavily favored:
Race 4: #5 As long as the pace doesn't get too hot here, we'll take it. Its main speed adversary, which could cook things a bit-- especially the very first quarter-- is #7. As well there are other live ones in here, such as 1A, 2, 6,7... main reasons why we downgraded this horse from 2 entries originally. ML fave.
Race 8: #5(2nd ML fave) We're banking on the connections here being smart enough to overcome the projected suicidal early pace here: Jockey Alan Garcia has been riding very well lately, & Trainer McLaughlin seems to have turned things around very positively. So the question mark becomes:
Is this horse rateable enough to lay a few lenghths back(or conversely able to lay close and not get burned). BTW another live horse in here, for similar tactical reasons-- besides others, is #7.
Race 9: Yeah, everybody and their dog will be looking to pick #1(the day's minus-pool fave). BUTTTT.... what if the inside is dead today.... what if it gets goaded into a speed duel with the projected lone frontrunner-- & maybe to boot today's surface is unkind to early speed?
Because, an expensive horse like that sometimes just has very little incentive to win a race-- what's "another" Grade 1 win add in value whatsoever? Also, should things not go well early...say a bad start...the connections aren't going to risk anything by say, whipping it like crazy to catch up-- remember Big Brown's Belmont Stakes example.
In conclusion: running-style wise we're covered with both speed burners & other versatyle ones that can both rate & duel for the lead. We ride on three projected heavy faves(maybe one, in the fourth race, becomes lukewarm co-fave instead) & one likely second favorite. This is NOT to our liking-- we like to root favorites going down / taking many entries with them-- but we also need to be realistic: it's hard enough to get ONE heavy favorite, not to win, never mind being out of the money... but several of them ALL "being out of the money"? So, we're hedged-- if the public advances today we ride along(& avoid elimination by trying to be too clever)... but at a single vote, we can root lustily for a heavy favorite to take a jump into the infield lake.
We'll be back w/ our promised comments / advice re the two grass routes today.
Interesting first race: Dominguez, aboard the speed of the speed, takes back behind THREE duelers early.... then closes up the inside alongside the eventual winner....BUT hangs a bit in the end. I think we were right: Barclay Tagg SHOULD have put in some "longer workouts".
SOME PARIMUTUEL LONGSHOT POSSIBILITIES-- Mind you, we're posting this before scratches, but we just don't have the time to wait until NYRA is good and ready-- or the inclination to subsequently do a mad, headless chicken handicap of the card just prior to posttime.
The two route Turf races-- 5 & 7-- afford very possible scores...not just due to the large field sizes, but each for its own reasons:
5th race: in this claiming race the experienced turf horses cannot beat the par time, so the winner may well be not only the lucky recipient of a good trip, but as well one of the surface debuters-- particularly one with adept soft ground lineage(& of course, the requisite physical conformation)...
Race 5: Yes, #8 is the one to beat, BUT "there are many live ones in here" AT A PRICE! "For a sufficient price we can disregard question marks and slight weaknesses"!!!
#1 learning to rate makes it very dangerous-- the post could either be its salvation or downfall... good chance of the former, as it'll likely be disrgarded by most the other riders here..
#2 could be anything
#5 don't disregard Mark Shuman
#7 projected longest shot in here...tasty....
#9 was hindered by slow pace last out.... odds clouded a bit in light of number of tries so far...
#6 can fill your lower tri & super slots...
Race 7 next...........
Race 4-- Kinda regretting taking #5 here... poor value--- many live ones at a price...will have to improve measurably to stave off the others.....may likely do so-- but at that price....
We'll take that second...kudos nevertheless to the connections...taught the horse to close. and YOU should've gotten that TRI using our choices!
Can't get faves to lose today-- we need Ginger Punch to fall in the 8th(no pun intended)-- otherwise most everyone gets a free pass.
Race 7:
Supers & Tris: key 1,5,6,7,8 w/ 3,4,10 in the lower slots.
Unlike the 5th, where missed the place horse, #3, this race is more agreeable to catching the super-- its'9 furlong distance separates the classy ladies from the cheap hos: easier to overcome bad racing luck / tougher to steal with subpar early fractions...
Only 5% eliminated halfway thru the card....6% after 7 races...8% after 8......9% after 10...
Missed the place horse in both 5th & 7th....
Race 8: #7, our second choice completely wiped out at the break....never passed anyone else afterwards...
Race 9: We started to cheer when 'they' almost got 'her'-- completely boxing her in... leaning on her coming out of the final turn into straightaway: our heart skipped a joyous beat when Robby Albarado on #7 leaned into her.... we really thought she was going to fall down, or at least finish out of the money.
BUT it was a valiant extricating effort, guided by Bejarano, that squeezed out a well-deserved win: almost like squeezing thru the eye of a needle.
We'd've been left with a coupla hundred surviving entries only, had she gone down.
Oh, well-- onto tomorrow-- and all our entries survived unscathed. Proportionally, more than 5 of every 8 entries are eliminated after this fourth day.
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