Top 10 Selections for 7/31/2008
R# No Horse Name--- Percentage
6-- 3 Storming Off 32%
9-- 2 Ferocious Fires 23%
3-- 8 Hatta Fort 11%
4-- 2 Isn't That Special 4%
5-- 5 Better Than Swiss 4%
3-- 4 Redefined 4%
1-- 3 Be Certain 3%
9-- 6 Mr. Bourbon Street3%
2-- 8 Valiancy 3%
9-- 5 Market Psychology 3%
CONTEST SELECTION: RACE 1-- #3 (Yes, baby-- the jumps! Read all about that, and other races today towards the bottom of today's page) Go baby, go!!!
WEATHER NUMBNUTS:
Accuweather: Possible occasional thundershower @ 1PM-- otherwise sunny all day.
Weather.com: Thunderstorms all day 11AM-10PM
We'll side with the former.
CONTEST OUTLOOK FOR TODAY:
More of the same as yesterday-- few eliminations-- more than ½ the race field sizes project to go off in the single digits. Although we never lose hope: all it takes is a propitious bump... or two.
edit: confirmed-- field sizes "before" late scratches: 7, 8, 8, 7, 11, 87, 8, 10, 6, 11 One sixer, 3 seveners, 3 eighters....
Thus, a heavy fave in a 7 horse field: "½" the rest of the field has to defeat it...
THOUGHTS FOR THE DAY:
Those of you on a single entry--take each week one day at a time first. Have as a goal, at the start of each racing week-- Wednesday-- lasting that week-- for at the end of it, @ 90% should be gonzo. Surely and steadily the tortoise wins the race. Then you start over again the next week. You may only have to do this a couple of times before the contest comes to a conclusion:
1. at the start of this contest the feat may have looked daunting--- with 3,684 entries-- but look at how much better the picture improved by week's end: only 434 survived!
2. in a similar manner, those of you who purchased multiple entries and have seen them dwindle to say, just one or two-- don't be discouraged. It will help to visualize that by the end of this week the contest could be down to 50... then down to the money positions sometime during the following week.
To our projection factor in plus / minus one week deviation-- the contest might last a bit longer with a week of chock full of successful heavy chalk and/or beacoup scratches resulting in numerous small-field races...although conversely, consecutive Graveyard days could bring a sudden end to the contest.
And don't be concerned with the leaderboard-- chalk players usually lead early in tourneys, but are nowhere to be seen at the end. Losing chalk the fuel of almost 'all eliminations'... it eventually arrives, and in bunches.
In fact, the leaderboard almost never comes into play in NYRA Showdowns. The leaderboard in contests like these is basically there for dweebs to crow on internet boards, blogs, community sites, etc. ad nauseam how they're leading(or close to it) a tournament in the first few days.
Some clueless such beast actually posted @ the Daily Racing Form that he was leading this tourney after the fourth day @ 4-0(his entry's contest handle sorted first alphabetically among those @ 4-0 ROTFLMAO). Yeah, something like half the entries had either 3 or 4 wins then.
On an unrelated though equally dweebish note-- 1½ dozen additional bounced transactions(totaling 90 so far, look for that number to top 100 eventually. Ehh, what's a Grand among friends?):
Updated Prize Pool--$35,940:
1st- $14,376
2nd- 7,188
3rd- 3,594
4th- 2,874.40
5th- 2,336.10
6th- 1,797
7th- 1,437.20
8th- 1,078.20
9th- 718.80
10th- 539.55
Anyway-- if you're of the opinion that life sucks... and even if you disagree, you will still encounter now and then a particular period of time in your life, or at the very least an event, that does suck-- think about this:
boy, if that's bad-- death awaits me eventually... accompanied by lots of pain.
If you wish, you may proceed to cry now-- or at least commence hollering "OUCH!!!"repeatedly and, as they say in opera-- con brio.
see you @ scratch time....btw:
SOME PRELIMINARY CONTENDERS:
RACE 1: #3
RACE 4: main contenders-- 1, 3, 2
RACE 9: main contenders-- 6, 5, 2
TODAY'S CARD ANALYSIS AFTER SCRATCHES--
Today's card is chock full of favorites on:
a. suspicious drops
b. off a long layoff race + a bad comeback race
c. a chaos race with undefined pace scenario / combatants
Yes, lots of small fields too... contestants today are going to focus almost exclusively on one/two/three heavy, heavy favorites.
So, contest-wise we don't want to be near any carnage.
It's one thing to parimutuelly bet a race with a possible losing favorite, it's another thing to do that in a contest-- esp. when down to one single entry... because:
IIIFFFF that risky favorite comes in the money anyway-- it means that "ONLY ONE OTHER horse in the rest of the entire field" can beat one's choice.
Even though Elvis sang against suspicious minds-- we'll stay with ours the way it is, thank you very much.
Therefore, we will not bet any race that might elicit a possible popular choice today. That imperative pretty much nixes all the decently-sized races today. However, this course of action is facilitated due to(thankfully) finding a nice lock in today's jump opener. In fact, it's such a ridiculously easy choice, that we won't tell you-- we'll let you read the pp's and guess which.
Another plus-- we get to skip a couple of blood pressure doses today, what with our selection being in the first race. As well as any rains IIFFF they ever arrive.
RACE 2--
five debuters
one one also-ran that wouldn't be the first to miraculously wake up in its second career race
the next two will compete with favoritism with one of the debuters:
a pacesetter off soft fractions for a cold Lukas barn
a closer on the outside post--off a tardy start in its debut-- it did rally ok... maybe if Asmussen whispered in our ear that he was sending we'd be a bit more encouraged...
RACE 4--
three main contenders in pp order:
1-- a better start would really help(blinkers could help, the rail may not)
2-- if able to rate, could take it all...although will be facing a much, much faster pace of race
3-- has a chance if able to bounce back to previous form
RACE 6--
favorite just screams: "suspicious bet sucker, lay off!!!"
RACE 7--
#'s 4,5,6-- all very suspicious as well
#9-- we like the trainer, and gather many other owners and trainers have liked this horse a lot too. Interesting to note though, that NONE of them have attempted a class raise in spite of good form & efforts-- this horse must have some physical defect-- not too serious, possibly more cosmetic than anything-- which can be largely controlled...enough that is, to permit racing.
RACE 8--
contentious race without a definite pace scenario-- chaos in other words.
As well, if one backs the favorite in the face of those frequent and long layoffs, one must guess that the initial dull comeback effort was ONLY due to either not taking to the Grass or just being a public workout to tighten its conditioning.
We're not prepared to bet one way or the other-- not even if you handed us freely some money(contest entry).
INTRA DAY--
Okie dokie, we're in like Flynn.
Saratoga Grass seems to be favoring early speed(besides inside) no matter how wet or dry.
J. Sheppard once again demonstrates his complete domination of the game on that surprise winner-- it only lagged 16 lengths behind our hero last time... unless if you wish to blame the extra weight carried today-- what's that, about 1 length per pound? LOL
The only questions(minor) for #3 were:
the layoff & Jockey McCarron off...we figured he was just returning the mount back to his regular rider. Otherwise, the apparent steep class drop was not an issue: Saratoga offered a purse for this race equal to that last Grade 2 affair(well ok, 2 thousand less)-- and ensured no steep competition with those conditions: only fairly recent winners...or confirmed losers. The only foe we were even mildly concerned with was the show horse.
NOW WE GET TO ROOT FOR FAVORITES TO FAIL: WE HAVE OUR PREDILECT SONG PRIMED AND SET TO PLAY AFTER THE FINISH OF EACH RACE TODAY "ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DON--ERR DUST".
ELIMINEE METER:
After one race: 1 entry eliminated LOL
After two races: same total...
After three races: 1 more entry eliminated...totaling 2 so far... At this rate, the bounced check entry purchases being returned today will beat the number eliminated during game play.
After four races: Unchanged total...this is like watching paint dry.
After five races: Ditto again...
After six races: Yippy ka yay mofos!!! ONE more entry bit the dust!!! Total 3 for the day now!!!
After seven races: Nothing changed....
After eight races: Looking ahead to the ninth-- contains three popular contest choices-- will they all finish in the money? Judging by today so far, others will finish first and second while the three faves deadheat for show. #5 late scratch-- votes will transferred to #2, for a total of 26%....#6 carries 3%. Never seen a day like this, everyone but the three stooges passing so far...
Ok, more stooges fall down, finally-- 3% down.
After nine races: 8% down so far.
End of day total: 9% gone today & 9% remain in the contest.
Race 2-- first three faves had it easy, as the other 5 foes suffered / underwent eventualities...
Race 3-- almost got the fave down, which closed up open rail to nip a coupla others for show...
Race 4-- the 'safer' of the three faves won-- could not get any of them to finish off... as two of their foes wiped each other out at the break.
Race 5-- another false fave sucks up for show.
Race 6-- fairly strong second choice finishes third, behind first contest choice winner. Never mind...off in another galaxy.
Race 7-- fave fest continues unabated.
Race 8-- nonwithstanding all those high mutuels, place & show horses were 2 of 4 morning line co-faves. No one in here made top vote list anyhow-- of those 3% & above listed.
Race 9-- Yippy ka yay mofos!!! #6, carrying the princely amount of 11 entries, went down. ONE time we were able to play our Queen anthem today!!!
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