EDIT: re some rule changes for this year, etc. The meet runs 43 days, offering 44 races(final day two races are offered instead of one-- one can bet in one of them only). However, this year, one can ONLY bet a maximum of 32-- & the usual minimum of 10. For weekly prize eligibility, a minimum 2 races must be bet. Bets can be from $5 to $100, but only those $20+ count for minimum requirements.
Cap amount is 35-1. We suggest you consider betting Place instead of Win if your choice's odds are 50+-1.
In general, one can bet right up until post time, and if entries close before the gate opens, one can still email them one's pick / change....HOWEVER, their internal clocks are something like 1-3 minutes behind-- leading to conflicts.... Since years ago we complained-- telling to double check with atomic clock-- but they've insisted their time is correct and doesn't require checking, much less fixing. We recommend always putting in a bet in from the day before-- one can always get a refund. Speaking of-- when one wishes to change a bet, one must first cancel / request refund, then go back in and input a new bet. Be aware that when canceling a bet, a message pops up sic
"There are no wagers to refund or cancel". That sounds like the wager cancel failed, but in actuality it means the reverse-- that there are zero dollars / bets left in play for that contest race(one can bet multi-horses in different amounts in any win / place / show combination). AND we recommend CYA: having email agent open in compose mode, with both the following addresses inserted(and already added to address book), when making a bet close to post time:
Mary Shepardson(Internet Issues)
marys@dmtc.com
Miles Michelson(Contest Issues)
miles@dmtc.com
Subject: website froze when placing wager, website will not refund my wager(or some such alerting subject), quickly write in your desired bet amount & horse name in the body...and click Send. One can also call them, but first a switchboard operator answers...while juggling multiple lines-- by the time she gets to one's call and is able to transfer, the race will likely be over...and to boot they may not be at their desk when you call, or have voice mail enabled.
Still, having the number on speed dial can be another option in case of internet, browser, operating system outage:
General Information Number:
(858) 755-1141
Racing Office:
(858) 792-4230
We used to have the direct extension numbers-- call now and get them from the receptionist.
STRATEGIC MUSTS
1. One must have as a goal not to let any longshot winner, say 25+-1, escape without a bet. One may get away with missing one of the longshot winners of the entire contest, esp. if a handful or more strike, but two slips and kiss the contest goodby. Why? The mathematics of the sheer numbers-- this contest may attract as many as 10 thousand entries, so-- whenever a longshot wins, a considerable number of people will have hit it. And when the second & third longshots hit, a still considerable number of entrants will have bet all of them.
Think of it this way as well: when one lets a longshot slip by, one now has to hope that when the next longshot(or two) wins, one has it and NO ONE in that significant-sized leading group does-- a tall order.
Fulfilling this step is ONLY ½ the battle for:
2. One also needs to pass contestants in the standings, as many as possible AND BEFORE one catches that longshot winner; while allowing as few as possible to pass, even if just by a few dollars. As in NASCAR, just being in the lead lap is not enough.
IF one catches that purported longshot, one now has to worry about how to beat everyone else in that group. Keep in mind that every losing bet deducts money from the accumulated bankroll-- unlike other contests. One is only obligated to bet at least $20(of a max $100) in 10(of a total 32)days. <Needless to say, one MUST catch longshot winners with the max $100 bet>. Therefore one MUST answer the following correctly:
A. Do any longshots have a chance in this race, or are they hopelessly outgunned?
B. Is there any sure in the money horse in this race? For, even if say, such a horse pays $3 on a show or place bet, that means plus $150 50 added to the bankroll, rather than minus $100 riding on a hopeless longshot-- a $250 150 swing that multiplied 10-20 times in the contest equals having caught one extra longshot winner.... actually two, when taking into consideration the combined / doubled effect of the converse occurring to others ranked close by: their multiple losing bets that further take them 2 longshot winners' worth of money behind oneself... ***
3. The immediately preceding is why there is little value betting single digit odds horses, esp. to win as opposed to say, show UNLESS they appear formidable-- of course, we're referring to races where we've totally discarded the longshots... or those races that may not even have a longshot.
Yes, a loss or two while swinging for the fences won't really hurt, "but the aggregrate future effect will be substantial". Two-three of weeks getting blanked out is minus $1500, while two-three weeks @ slightly over break even for a +$2000 swing equals one longshot winner. We just need to be realistic rather than pray for luck... as often a few weeks of mostly feature races can and will pass w/o a cap horse winning. ***
And that is why one MUST realistically determine whether a race is ripe for a longshot or not.
4. The above is why we're not opposed to betting more than one horse in a race... esp. in the following couple of scenarios:
Race is narrowed down to 2-3 possible winners-- all paying medium mutuels-- say @ $16-34.... or two such with a so-so favorite...Usually they are all win or off the board, with none being a certain in the money bet... We don't mind betting all or drop the lowest odds entrant & bet the other two-- we want to make some money(hedge a bit) rather than be vulnerable to a zig-zag situation-- anyhow, a single maximum bet on winner in the low teens odds is not a lot of loot-- and we will still move up considerably in the standings, while most others are losing their $100... "it still helps a lot to win something while MOST are losing something".
5. Yes, when we collect from an in the money or multi-horse bet, some others will collect more-- but those that do have NO chance in this contest... they are utilizing erroneous strategy. We are more concerned about collecting extra money here and there to beat those who employ a sound strategy and/or catch the same longshots.
*** Edit: we've made a couple of corrections above to reflect the fact that only the net winnings from a bet get added to a bankroll(ie a win $100 bet on an even money shot will only add $100, not 200 to the bankroll). BUT the principles still apply-- there will still be plenty of contestants betting nothing but longshots.
TIPS ON HANDICAPPING A CONTEST RACE
1. When you write down each horse name(or saddle cloth number instead, whatever), "list very prominently next to each the MORNING LINE ODDS".
2. We highly suggest you begin looking at each "starting from the LONGEST MORNING LINE ODDS".
3. Give every realistic break possible to double digit ML Odds entrants. If you must, call an extreme Liberal and/or conspiracy theorist associate to help in this process. But, seriously:
Go back as many pacelines as needed...use the fastest one in the pp's if realistically possible. Often, horses hopelessly outgunned will not be pushed hard-- maybe not even from the get go-- the distanced loss does not necessarily mean anything is wrong with them...even if this repeats for several races in a row. As well, the connections are not going to get rich by needlessly pushing for a minor place purse-- they may have the patience to wait for a realistic chance of winning...at juicy odds to boot.
Don't be hesitant to manually adjust pacelines to account for trouble during a race. Be willing to discount any subpar effort on a surface type, condition, distance, etc. that may not be the horse's preferred or habitual.
Be willing to manually contruct a paceline utilizing each best fraction from the last few pertinent races in these scenarios:
A. A new 3 or 4yo's 2nd/3rd/4th race off an extended layoff, when he recently has posted an internal fraction faster than ever(very important: must be under pressure / with company, not alone by itself)-- there are 3 main fractions btw: F1 is obviously the first call fraction, F2 is usually turn time or the second call minus the first call fraction, F3 is the coming home time after the second call down to the finish. If it just posted a career high with one of these, go back to other pacelines and grab the fastest other two to construct a projected paceline which usually correctly anticipates that such a horse is about to put everything together to post a line indicating his considerable growth spurt / physical progress.
B. Do something similar with a horse that just displayed an ability to run a race with a different running style not shown before(very important: final fig for the race with this new style must be comparable to his best numbers).
One handicapping factor that can take one very far is to not handicap a race, which is based on PAST numbers, until one answers the following:
If one horse in here by miracle turns out to be the Eclipse Horse of the Year, which one(s) is most likely? Or-- which horse(s) in here are likely to post a new career high final figure that is open lengths faster then ever and which may also include a career high early pace or closing figure open lengths better than any before? The next category down question is: which of these have steadily rising figures, making them likely to post a higher fig than any showing recently in the pp's? Try to predict a number, how high today's may turn out to be. As well, try to adjust upward all figs for past race trouble. Now you will be eons ahead of the crowd.
Who are the candidates eligible for a big jump in numbers? In allowance races, 3yo's vs their elders-- this factor gains strength proportionate to the fewest number of races in combination with the fastest-rising thru the different classes / conditions. The last two factors, in combination with wide spacing between races apply to 2yo's... significant monthly growth spurts abound for them. In Turf races of all ages, anyone newly introduced to the surface that is quickly rising thru the conditions...& foreign horses.
New 3-yos, new 4-yos(esp. if lightly-raced), new 5yo geldings(IF their previous figures were ascending) on their 1st thru 4th race off an extended layoff. All above examples are particularly strong when the pp's have finish coments like handily, ridden out, confidently, easily, when asked(as opposed to "driving"),...especially when in combination with a pressured duel and/or trip / traffic trouble. Conversely, look with suspicion at any win accomplished while clear on the lead BUT with a 'driving' finish.
You may not be able to handicap sorted by Morning Line.... maybe you need to scan by post position or running style. What is more important is that you divide the field into main starting categories-- pretend that you are a Win Dutch bettor who likes to bet all possible winners-- disregard odds / profit possibility for this:
Win contenders(no matter how unlikely-- you will tie-break these later)
Unknowns(insert these into above category). Actually, these should not be a separate category-- they should always be among your win contenders. In other words, do not leave out from Win Contenders anyone that you cannot provide concrete negative reasons for being a likely loser. It's easier if you start by creating your group of 'eliminees'....everyone else left is a win contender.
Loser('this group will include often those who will likely be in the money but just won't get the top spot)
In the money lock
Close to racetime
We can sub-categorize our Win Contenders-- we can mark any that we feel are Unlikely to win... and those that are held under 5-1 are tossed immediately. The same would usually apply to those under 10-1, as we would likely have stronger contenders left at close to those odds or higher...or maybe an in the money lock.
You now have left your strong / main contenders. If you have any @ 25+-1, it's your bet. Otherwise, we need to continue eliminating-- from these we would toss any @ under 5-1 that cannot be categorized under In the Money Lock. If you still have too many, keep tossing the next marginal odds @ 5/6/7-1. If you now have 2-3 left, consider betting them all unless if one is @ considerably higher odds.
You can always make exceptions to every tenet when convenient to do so.
Take for instance a race with mostly evenly-matched contenders all held at single digit or low teens odds-- however, there is one longshot that you crossed out before as an Unlikely Win Contender-- we would suggest betting it...or pass the race completely if you don't have an in the money lock.
The most important single thing you can do close to posttime-- is to note(again) any / all longshots-- esp. cap horses 35+-1, and "ensure they have no shot of winning(serves to doubly insure you did not overlook anything earlier)!! Or sometimes you may not have had a chance to handicap, arriving close to posttime... grab a form and start from the largest odds on down, crossing out or flagging down the line.
Okie dokie, the first day's analysis follows next.
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