This race does not look to offer great value.
(It's important to note it will be limited to 8 entrants-- the outside 4 are actually on the also eligible list.)
Handicapping insights? What handicapping? It's a 5 furlong dash--a charge of the light brigade early on-- won by either:
1. the early speedster fortunate enough to get a clean start while it's main pace competitors are playing bumper cars with each other, blowing the turn, etc.-- or...
2. in case of a clean start for most, one of the early speedsters not good enough to make the front flight-- but then able to thread thru the gasping duelers inside the sixteenth pole.
Value / Possible Longshots? HHMMMM, let's see:
there's a router on the rail @ 8-1 ML, coming off a layoff, that can't win unless on a clear lead or beat NW2L claimers... Best case scenario: it's ready to run off the layoff AND it will successfuly rate here AND will get a clear lane late.... maybe if Moses was the pilot....
...and a pair of Turf debuters @ 12 & 15-1 on the outside two posts. Of those, #7 @ 15-1 w/ Aaron Gryder aboard garners a second look: although off 8 months, the trainer does click with 1 in 4 layoff horses, and the horse is going from 3 to 4yo. But it's got its work cut out: would have to successfully rate, secure good position and get a clean trip. We think this race may actually be part of the trainer's modus operandi to teach the horse to successfully rate early.
Come posttime we'll give a second thought to anyone over 25-1... and since we'll be gone most of the day, we'll bet #7 now. In case we're not back in time, it's the most likely candidate to reach cap odds. But we'll cancel the bet if the odds are below 25-1.
BTW please remember to cancel early unwanted bets... we've forgotten twice already this contest. A good practice is to first check Bet Summary; doing this will also help remind one of earlier bet(s) in effect when trying to place a new bet, as the interface does not list previous bets-- and may help avoid getting shut out, since changing a bet is actually a multiple step / click process of finding Wager Refunds button, then Refund, receive confusing message "There are no races to refund"(which actually means you've successfully cancelled), then Today's Race...
In conclusion, we may well pass this race...it offers little value and/or handicapping certainty. But of course, come posttime we'll have to consider anyone @ cap odds, no matter how unlikely.
Race went to the speed of the speed turf debuter(even though coming off a NW2L, the adjusted early fractions were scorching) off cleanly-- place finisher, #2, bumped out of the gate, then wide while flying late to best the rest.
Almost got caught asleep at the switch again-- was just able to get wager cancel in on time. Hopefully the two previous such memory lapses won't come back to haunt us.
Let's actually alter this strategy immediately. In contests past, with no limit on number of races played, we would always put in a bet immediately after the race was put up: before even handicapping, we would just bet one of the ML longshots. That way we wouldn't be shut out, in case we couldn't be around to put in a bet later... better to have something / anything going rather than nothing, especially a dangerous longshot. This year, though:
the new contest limit of 32 wagers mandates saving unused bullets in the holster for down the stretch: 43 total contest days minus 32 maximum days allowed to bet = 11, the number of unplayed days we want to get out of the way... so as to not reach the last part of the contest not being allowed to bet any more races. Ideally, the last half of the contest we'd like to have those 11 races out of the way already, in order to be able to play every single day with abandon(even races with no longshots, we'd perhaps be able to make a few bucks here and there with say, some show or win dutch bets).
Today, like this first week for the most part, was a perfect time to pass-- nothing over 15-1 offered. This week had only two playable days(between no longshots offered and/or only unplayable longshots)-- so serious players should have banked 4 unplayed days already. We forgot twice to cancel wagers offered below playable odds threshold, hence have only banked 2 unplayed days.
Let's hope the contest organizer keeps picking sucky races so we can quickly reach our quota.
No comments:
Post a Comment