Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Saratoga Showdown Day 2 Thursday July 24

Contestant tally: of original 3684 entries, 6 have subsequently been voided due to bank transaction decline / failure, 882 others had a losing pick-- almost ¼ eliminated right away.

Prizes: for prize purposes 3678 paid entries seem to be the final official number-- for a total $36,780. Payoffs will thusly be:

1st- $14,712
2nd-  7,356
3rd-   3,678
4th-   2,942.40
5th-   2,390.70
6th-   1,839
7th-   1,471.20
8th-   1,103.40
9th-      919.50
10th-   551.70

 

As we summarized @ closing previous post--

as long as moisture keeps falling, we will look to favor closing ability, middle & outside posts, wet ability & pedigree...  the counterpart to that: we will avoid inside posts, esp. when the horse may not be able to extricate itself from there; early speed will only be considered  if classy, superior and esp. if projected to clear early.
And as always, popular choices will be avoided unless if totally legitimate or if needed for hedging purposes. As well we will always avoid being as spread out with so many different bets as yesterday-- unless if strategy dictates an exception.

It's likely safe to assume that tomorrow's card will be similar to today's re Turf races switching to dirt and many scratches abounding. Therefore, today we will only handicap in detail the three 2yo races... for the rest, we will only note things like wet pedigree & form, horse for course stats, key trainers, jock moves, etc.

Further additions to this post will be in a different color ink.

 

We're real worried Thursday may be a free pass for everyone-- first race, a steeplechase, was canceled; yet is present in the contest selection page. Unless every single contestant bypasses that race, contest organizers will be forced to pass everyone who bet it and doesn't bother to select again after the race is removed from the page. What are they gonna do-- assign all un-updated selections to the favorite in the next race?

If even one contestant fails to pick again after that race is removed, they'll be forced to pass everyone. We'd actually prefer if a free pass was given exclusively to the few involved instead. This is a major, major faux pas-- as the race cancellation was announced before the contest selection page for Thursday was up.

 

BTW all Turf races off...confirmed. Looks like the rain never really stopped, actually increasing in intensity... and 'may end around midday tomorrow'.
Even if 'no more rain fell the rest of the racing day', the surface will likely be a morass. So much moisture has fallen, there's just 'no place whatsoever' where the water could drain / go / be removed to... & even though the surface's
been sealed, it's got to be well on the way to some combo of Everglades & chocolate pudding. We don't see how frontrunners(except maybe those on an open lead) and inside posts won't be compromised.
Those players who can dope out previous wet track winners "@ Saratoga", and as well specific pedigree stats for Saratoga wet tracks should do very well today and in the coming continued rain days.

 

Updated forecast calls for rain to resemble yesterday: continuous throughout the day, well into tomorrow.

Some other things we'll be mindful of today:

Trainer Richard Dutrow & Jockey Alan Garcia seem to be hot-- we'll give closer scrutiny to their horses. Garcia may be a real plus, as the crowd will likely not fixate on him-- but rather on the usual & tired marqueé names.

Projected pace duels: sometimes do not materialize... right from the start horses may slip, break tardily, bump, etc.-- leaving  a lone one in control... this surface doesn't seem amenable to a quick turn of foot / catchup after some such incident.

We'll be back after scratches are posted.

 

First race has been removed from selection page. We're bracing for the howls from anyone eliminated because they originally selected something in that race & will not come back until after the day's racing has started.

 

Very little contest communication-- feel very much in the dark-- nothing posted / reported on the contest page.
For instance, something should be posted re today's cutoff selection time-- ¿maybe 1:20pm(15 min before post time of the first scheduled race today, which is actually the 2nd race)???
We didn't wish to risk any of our entries-- therefore went ahead and inputted all our selections before the normal 12:45 deadline. As well didn't venture a bet on the cancelled first race(possibly a free pass for the day?)... although very disappointed to have to do so before late scratches announced.
Re no late scratches-- are there none today, or are they purposefully delaying late scratch deadline because of the delayed initial post time?

 

Okie dokie-- two choices today(btw neither super-sure):

4 entries on: 5th race-- #8 is the superior speed, who drew  good post outside its early rivals, placing it on the expected better part of the track today.
We have two concerns: although its wet pedigree is very good, it seemingly has not enjoyed sure-footedness; we hope this is balanced out by being outside the rest.  The other concern is that we need for most of the debuters to not be the next coming of Smarty Jones.

3 entries on: 8th race-- #14 We go to the well again today with Trainer Levine: he has this horse on a very positive improvement curve...his whole barn has been on fire in fact. This horse has the best closing speed and if we've guessed correctly, should be favored by what we expect to be a trend today towards outside late speed. It's no lock though, there are plenty of other good closers in here.

 

Overall for today, we have mixed feelings--while we like seeing larger fields than yesterday-- we couldn't come up with anything remotely resembling a surefire bet.
Although we expect a much larger elimination percentage than yesterday, we might get swept with it as well.

 

After 3 races, over 20% gone already...should easily surpass yesterday in that regard. Looking for 50-70% original total being gone after 2 days.

 

Good news / bad news: we won the 5th but just couldn't get the 1 out of the money(ditto for the 4th race fave); the entry just managed to beat us out for favoritism--  additionally carrying whatever few votes were still on the scratched 3. Be back near day's closing.
You might question, judging by the win margin, why we classified it a a not sure bet...but to be fair, most of its opponents had early trouble while it sped away unharmed.

 

BTW Stopped raining after the 2nd race(the real second race, lol). We need to start thinking in what condition the surface "could be" tomorrow... thinking maybe all the visible water will be gone...wondering if the consistency will tend more toward gooey kablooey or wet, hard clay(if no more rain falls).
Rain returns(supposedly) the following few days, so we can forget about Turf racing this weekend & maybe even next week-- re-cancelling Wednesday's jump race from today..

 

Raining again-- guess it's not done for today.

 

7th race-- the winner, #5, recaptured favorite status with the late pari dump(after race off)-- carrying to victory substantial votes on scratched horses...while 2nd fave finished off the board. All in all, @ ¼ today's entries are gone.

 

8th race-- our choice, carrying remaining 3 entries, vying for favoritism. We hope favorite status fall on another horse AND that it finish off the board-- taking down the votes from all scratchees as well.
Ehh... we'll surely be posttime fave now.
9th race will be key as far as eliminations: top 4 choices carry 40% of today's entries.
Ok, all our entries make it today.

Bbuutttt, you gotta be kidding us.... 9th race scratches down to four entries??!!?! We coulda saved ourselves all the day's aggravation by just betting anything in there. Actually, this morning, when at 5 entries we didn't see anything compelling-- race seemed a tossup, & for most, equal win & out of money cases could be made.
So, now we need for either 3 or 6 to finish dead last. HHHMMMM, if both were to fall down, then all the entries carried by both would go down as well... horse has to actually cross the finish line(with a rider aboard of course) to be awarded a placing(third in this case).

 

 

WRAPUP

Not as many eliminated as we'd've liked-- 9th race 4 horse field put a damper on that, no pun intended.
All in all, we're still satisfied-- a higher % than yesterday, 28, went down; and more importantly: our 7 entries all survived unscathed. And that was particularly fortunate in light of not finding anything special-- in particular the 9th race w/ its then 5-horse field.

 

PS Re betting the cancelled jump race: we just discovered in our Inbox a warning email not to bet it. Still, we think the organizers lucked out, any wronged contestant has a legitimate beef.
Firstly, the race was included in the selection page.
Second, many folk utilize, for spam purposes, a non-primary email account precisely for web sign up purposes-- which seldom, if ever, gets checked.

We can envision 'some' working folk(w/o internet access later on, for whatever the reason) putting in a bet early... not being able to wait until scratch time / post time.
Then again, a bet on such a race just has a general too-risky perception. Luckily, these are not the days of yore when Jonathan S. ruled these races @ 1/5.

PS we suspect two such contestants were given a free pass.

We're just breathing a sigh of relief that the day didn't turn into a free pass for everyone. We want our prize money-- and we want it as quickly as possible-- especially we don't wish to see the contest outlast the meet and go into tiebreaker status.

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