Updated Prize Pool--$36,330(more returned transactions keep trickling back every day-- expect Wednesday or maybe Thursday to be the last day for that):
1st- $14,532
2nd- 7,241
3rd- 3,633
4th- 2,907.40
5th- 2,361.50
6th- 1,811
7th- 1,453.20
8th- 1,089.90
9th- 726.60
10th- 544.90
NOTE: what's really bad about the bounced transactions now-- practically all are on "already-eliminated" entries.
Patience is THE greatest virtue:
ONE racing week is not even complete yet, and already 5/6 of all entries are gone...More than 3,000 of the original 3,684 went POOF!!!
WEATHER:
Starting @ the second race, scattered & occasional thundershowers thruout the afternoon & evening.
Although we suspect it might be more of the same as Sunday-- no substantial rain materializing.
Half the ten races are Turf affairs-- we wonder if there's any temptation to switch surface in light of the weather...not just today-- rain is expected almost every day next week starting on Wednesday-- which to boot holds the rescheduled steeplechase.
Additionally of note, there's one race with a small 5-horse field. We're not getting our hopes up yet, as previous small fields for this meet have been competitive all around.
This boutique meet is unlike regular meets in the sense that just about everyone who ships up here comes with bad intentions...to run fast-- unlike the downstate meets where tired & outmatched entrants that one can draw a line through are found more often.
We start today with 3 surviving entries from an original 8. That may seem kinda shaky, but we're actually handicapping solidly:
we've selected 18 different horses so far--½ outright winners btw-- and only 3 have gone down... all 3 of them due to an unlucky mishap at the start.
One got totally wiped out in bumper car fashion at the break, the second was a frontrunner drawn inside who broke behind the field and then couldn't get thru, the third one yesterday acted up in the gate & reared up at the start.
TODAY'S PIX(1 entry each)--
4th race --- #9.. our favorite pick, but still carries risk in such a large field. Other contenders: 3,2,1.
10th race- #11. IF surface stays dry, 12 has a win chance.
3rd race--- #2.. This pick-- as well the spreading out to multiple choices-- does not make for a lot of handicapping sense.
BUT it works for various strategic & hedging purposes.
It's a fairly competitive field-- everyone has a chance to win...although we downgrade a bit the chances of #'s 4 & 1. Ergo, all have a chance to win-- & as well to finish totally out of the money.
We don't like to see its possible dueler drawn to its outside & @ demanding 7 furlong distance. Still, it could also find itself on a lone lead-- but then again, the track could be wet and tiring...w/ maybe the inside part worse off.
Or, more likely-- the track could be sealed....still dry.... favoring speed.... the inside the better part to be.
It is a 5 horse field(3 out 5 qualify... & a late scratch would practically cinch things).... balancing out the larg(er) fields of our other selections.
It won't be the favorite...balancing out the possible favoritism of our other two choices.
We don't like to spread out, but this is not Belmont or Aqueduct. When the weather stabilizes, along with surface & bias... & we find a strong choice in a small (or even medium-size) field; that'll be another story.
INTRA-DAY
2nd race coming up--- still no posted selection stats... how will first race be handled re the non-pari winner? Either counting it + the official win & place finishers only...or count all 4, adding the official show finisher...
Still no top selection stats, although the eliminated stats ticker is down 2% now...
3rd Race-- 3 entrants among top ten choices today.... as long as all three do not beat the other two, we have some eliminations. If not, most entries pass today.
Top 10 Selections for 7/28/2008
R# No Name Percentage
3 5 Wanderin Boy 32%
3 2 Mr. Umphrey 16%
9 3 Desert Key 10%
9 5 Kodiak Kowboy 8%
3 3 Gold Trippi 6%
8 3 Windy 5%
1 1 Tergesti 5%
4 9 Blitzen Too 4%
10 11 Irish Bride 3%
1 4 Overextended 2%
#2 took 100 entries with it.. 1/5 gone today.. survivors down to 1/8 of starting number.
race 4: we're very comfortable with #9-- drawn just outside of its main competitors, will be able to easily track them. Should post a big fig jump both from being lightly raced / still growing and this, its third race off the layoff. Handles the soft turf well...no chinks in its armor. As well it's meeting a lower level of competition than in its last race. This filly could turn out to be a very good one down the road.
Of course, in a large field all kinds of trouble can appear....
Can't believe down to last entry. Each lost by ½ length-- one faded a bit too much, the other fell a bit short of catching up-- got middled out.
¼ entries down so far today.....
We could've just blindly put our three entries on any three in the 5-horse third.... minimum one and likely two entries would've survived...
No rain so far.... our remaining entry in the 10th, moves up on off-going... not necessary though.
1/3 gone today so far... 1/9 overall entries remaining...
Race 10: looks like a late scratch occurred-- #13. Not a contender at all, by any stretch of the imagination, but we'll take any help-- no matter how trivial.
Ok, we scrape by.
No rains.... speed did well on wet Turf.... quite a few prices...
We'll start another post w/ a weekly recap later tonight.
No comments:
Post a Comment