Intra-Day Commentary:
We''re in a real foul mood-- DelMar fancies itself the premier meet in the country yet budgets like a third world country:
Tomorrow's contest race needed to be posted hours ago!!! Every year website outages, freezes, slowdowns abound at times-- this year no exception. Track employees don't escape unscathed either, when on their computers-- one T-1 connection shared by everyone means a cigarette break after every click of a link. Positive news is the 5+K entrants contributing to overburdened servers... at that rate, this contest should top last year's 7+K & may actually have a shot at 10K.
Game of inches.....& judges darkened our already foul mood further..."#3's infraction did not alter the finish order"... Duh... slowed momentum & altered course had to count for something in photo...
The one consolation as we lick our wounds: those who bet today's winner pose absolutely NO threat in this contest(to say nothing of others who cashed in the lesser pools, as well as those who bet less than a full unit).
Take a look at the standings: Those currently in places 1 thru 1,451 are automatic throwouts... they pose no threat with their methodologies.
1. 7/2 Win Contender-- Very strong one at that: may shake off alone on the far turn. However, as the morning line favorite, we refuse to start the contest with a whimper-- so no to this one and no to In the Money Lock category today. We pass on this one.
2. 15-1 Win Contender-- Versatile running style and could get a perfect trip along the fence the whole race(or get bottled up) @ juicy odds. Still, we feel others are better, while still offering similar odds.
3. 9/2 Win Contender-- mainly because as a 2yo it had similar figs as these sophomores, and now attempts his third race off extended layoff. Still, if we were managing this horse we would opt for an allowance race and more distance: 8½-9 furlongs. ML offers little value for a horse attempting turf debut in stakes race-- as well, we're not enamored of his sire & trainer Turf debut stats. We pass.
4. 20-1 Win Contender-- he has to be labeled thusly, if only based on ML & able longshot jock...But it's had too many chances already, & as with the case of #2, we like others more.
5. 12-1 Loser-- We give this horse no chance actually. It has a faster first fraction than #1, but lags far behind in turn time. He will need to post a faster figure while running farther & being pressed early... not without cobra venom.
6. 12-1 Win Contender-- OUR MAIN CHOICE. If this horse puts it all together third off the layoff, it may decimate this field. First race back he threw a freakish turn time 5-6 lengths faster than the nearest competitor here. Subsequent race was deceptively troubled: his slow early fraction can be explained in part because others ran erratically, forcing it to take up and be forced back off a dwadling pace. Don't be discouraged by his jockey's stats-- we were very impressed how deftly & aggressively he handled circling the field on the far turn-- he couldn't have saved another ½ inch of ground nor ½ ounce of momentum. His finishing time there beats all others here by open lengths. This horse may now be ready to put together a decent start(faster while way more relaxed) coupled with best turn time and finishing fraction. We would like to see at least an extra half furlong distance-- but a clean trip & heady ride should be sufficient here.
7. 10-1 Win Contender-- Has to be considered so just on the basis of having run in way classier races in Europe. However, trainer's relevant stats are abysmal: of 53 extended layoff starts 0 wins / 10 in the money. First start for trainer: 0 of 11. As well, the sire's avg. win distance is 5.9 furlongs-- see how they kept it at that distance range the whole time overseas?
On the other hand, workouts are excellent. We could consider a bet at sufficiently high odds-- if firmly entrenched in cap territory(meaning no chance of dipping below 35-1)-- ideally sufficiently high enough to allow a Place bet to collect near the cap limit.
8. 4-1 Win Contender-- A clean start w/ very good gate jock aboard gives an excellent chance to take it all; as well there's that recent great work. However, we are loath to accept favorite-vying odds on a chronic early laggard breaking from a wide post(& many horses to his outside as well)at this shortest of route distances. Whoever bets this horse better not cry later over a bad trip-- they're asking for it.
9. 6-1 Win Contender-- Although 6-1 ML on a Turf Debuter in a stakes field-- this size to boot-- is not what we would call value.
10. 9/2 Win Contender-- With improvement AND a clean trip--doubtful on such a wide post in such a large field... @ such low odds will not attract our money.
11. 15-1 Loser-- Way outclassed & has had too many chances.
12. SCRATCHED
13. 15-1 Win Contender-- Off his single troubled but won Turf line, this horse could be anything-- or at least has not demonstrated "yet, on that surface" a top or limit. If we were to bet someone in the outer half of such a large field, we would much, much rather be on this horse's generous odds rather than # 8/9/10. And being from the AE list, it could really, really get overlooked /let go at huge odds.
14. 20-1 Win Contender-- Not likely, but will offer huge odds.... comes with great work, top jock, versatile running style, good effort against the bias, improving numbers.....
Don't fret that we haven't outright & decisively eliminated more-- it's a huge field with plenty of long-priced entrants-- scratches and post time odds should be very important final arbiters.
May the mule be with you.
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