Slightly less than 30% went down yesterday-- including more than 2 dozen additional failed bank transactions(besides those of previous day)-- so we'll need to update prize structure to reflect the slightly diminished total prize pool:
Official number of entries so far: 3,6527 (¿maybe a handful of contestants bet the steeplechase yesterday, didn't / couldn't update, & thus were given a free pass?)
1st- $14,636
2nd- 7,318
3rd- 3,659
4th- 2,928.20
5th- 2,378.35
6th- 1,829.50
7th- 1,463.60
8th- 1,097.70
9th- 731.80
10th- 548.85
We have 7 of 8 entries still alive. A cursory glance at tomorrow's card leads us to believe we should find something safer to bet than today.
If we find something really safe and in a small field, we won't be disagreeable to singling it with all our entries... otherwise, we 'might' spread out to 2-3 horses-- a safe & almost necessary strategy given the unsettling weather & not totally clear resulting running surface profile; and especially so w/o the luxury of watching a race or two prior to betting. Yesterday was an illustrative case in point: we had two choices-- one a dominant speed, the other one the best closer. As well this particular wet surface can be conducive to unpredictable starts-- we won't go so far as to call it slippery, but it certainly is not as tractable as when normally dry.
Forecast calls for more steady rain thru the night, ending sometime between sunset & early commute time.
See you tomorrow after scratches.
UPDATED FORECAST:
TODAY-- After rains end, SUNNY & CLEAR the rest of the way...@ 7-8 hours of it before today's later post time.
SATURDAY-- More of the same, BUT the heavy rains return for the last 2-4 races of the card.
SUNDAY & MONDAY-- Resumed deluge continues.
Let's fathom a guess re surface & bias:
Turf-- still off until next week
Main-- speed-favoring... this attenuating as races progress during the next two days. Maybe today Friday the rail is still not the place to be.
Of course, this all could turn out to be the total opposite.
TODAY'S CHOICES:
2 entries-- Race 1: #2 Has a very versatile running style & being lightly-raced is the candidate most eligible to post the largest figure increase in here-- & not that it needs to: it already has the highest Fig. As well it has the fastest turn time & early pace-- the latter by open lengths-- it should be able to control the pace here & draw off. It also happens to be ridden by one of our favorite jocks: Leparoux; and as a further bonus, it's ONLY the second ML favorite.
The only question mark remains whether track maintenance has been able to even out the track(fixed the boggy inside).
PS #7 would be a contender for main choice normally-- but we just can't see anyone claiming from Bill Mott & improving the horse-- although Trainer Brown is very, very able.
2 entries-- Race 6: #4 Projects to be open lengths in the clear early-- & not that it has to: as it is able to rate-- IIFFF #1 does not duel with it...even if, we're not too worried:
rail could be dead today and #4 still sports the highest Fig here by open lengths.
As a further bonus, it's ONLY the second ML favorite.
The race boils down to those two. Our Trainer, Asmussen, has started the meet on fire-- while questions remain on whether main rival Trainer Levine can continue his tear from Belmont in light of a surprise inspection and testing of ALL his stock a few days ago. His charge here is getting first Lasix-- normally an almost automatic win bet-- but who knows(wink, nudge) now....
3 entries-- Race 7: #3 A stone closer with the highest Fig, turn time, & closing fraction. There is a chance #5 could scamper away early, but barring a bad trip, he should finish somewhere in the money at worst. The only chink is that it may find itself dead last early-- couple that with a runaway leader-- & the bet becomes fairly risky: assuming the pacesetter airs, ONLY ONE OTHER horse can beat it to stave off elimination. But there are some pluses to this bet:
a. it's not among the first three ML favorites.
b. it balances out the running styles(& possible running bias requirements) of the other two choices.
All in all-- we'd prefer not to have to spread out beyond two choices... but question marks linger re today's surface: has track maintenance been able to iron / dry out yesterday's boggy inside and tiring / closer-leaning track? If so, then the rail could reverse to the golden path from the place not to be.... and/or front-running bias could as well be back.
So, as it stands-- our selections are fairly balanced: 4 on second-ML entrants, 3 on a middle-priced entrant / 4 on frontrunners(one being very rateable), 3 on a closer. This way we're not totally done in by any extreme surprises-- from a golden or dead rail to an early or late biased strip.
Even better, none of our selections are the ML choice in any race... we can now start hoping for favorites to fall-- ergo many others being eliminated while we pass(supposedly).
In case you wonder why we didn't take advantage of the 3rd & 8th race's smallest field sizes today-- we found them too even-matched with plenty of unanswered questions. As well such races might attract the most entries... and the main trick in this contest is to survive when many get eliminated-- ergo avoiding popular choices whenever possible becomes paramount.
IN RUNNING:
First race kaput-- at least we're glad to see we became posttime favorite-- this way we also carried down in flames all scratch selections.
"From that race only" it looks like the inside is still NOT the place to be-- and closers "might" be advantaged.
Third race: just couldn't get either 4 or 6 to fall-- two of today's most popular choices. All in all, we're now below ½ original contest entrants.
Races 6-8 carry the bulk of remaining contestants-- will go along way in determining whether a substantial amount get eliminated today.
We need an average daily elimination rate over 17% if we want to see the contest end before the meet concludes-- so far, it's been 24+ & 29+...
Race 6--
As we said before, #1 with first Lasix will go a long way in determining if Trainer Levine continues on fire / with big figure jumps, from Belmont meet... or if he lays low(currently under big time steward scrutiny) / tails back down to earth.
We're presently very comfortable w/ our choice, as #1 is between a rock and a hard place-- does it allow #4 an open lead(or lay off and ease out to his outside) or rush up on the deeper rail to duel-- this to boot off a substantial layoff, while frontrunning in sprints not being its accustomed game.
Again, if it airs-- then Levine is a trainer to follow closely the rest of this meet... we kind of doubt this though.
Betting seems to be very guarded / lukewarm-- the big money can't make up its mind.... ehhhh..... they can always past post, depending on the early part.....
We would expect big money on a live Levine horse(that is also the ML favorite), so we'll take it as a plus for our hero #4's chances.
#1 inches ahead in favoritism at the end.... we'll take that...in case of some late scratch, more votes go on our foe.
Survivor Mantra: Win on the longshot, lose on the favorite.
Speaking of-- favorites are just not falling today... ehh... we'll take it... after the first race's disaster.
7th race-- Nice to see our handicapping vindicated, esp. on a non-consensus horse: we both win & get the favorite we totally disregarded off the board.
BTW Dominguez rode this horse extremely, extremely confidently.
IN CONCLUSION
Of three selections:
the first one, a pacesetter, broke poorly and brought up the rear all the way....the second one lost a three-way win photo...the third one won.
We lost two of seven entries--
"something than can bite one when spreading out too thin"...Originally last night, we settled on two races: the latter two; & this morning after scratches, we added one more--the losing first race.
BUT, until we get to dry, fast racing--we may have to spread out a bit-- not knowing for certain what the running profile / bias / conditions will be.
Take tomorrow's racing-- this clear weather will continue tomorrow BUT rain will arrive latter half of the card. We could suppose the track will be sealed, harder, drier....¿enough to solidify the so-so inside, enough to favor front runners? Or will it tend more towards these past coupla days? Turf racing-- off again in anticipation of more rain?
And let's not even get into Sunday / Monday-- deluge will return & continue for the next few days.........
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