Yes, 34th(2 days lost to tech glitches), in spite of what contest site states.
We sit extremely, extremely vulnerable today-- again, we went for price today, without the safety net of any contest life preservers.
7th: Here is our semi-safe choice...of course, there's nothing safe about a turf race with a large field...to boot we've been cursed by horrendous trips the last couple of days(in other contests as well): #7
Notice Bravo jumping off to ride Pletcher horse...we don't like that horse too much and feel it's more about Bravo wanting to get in w/ Pletcher-- something he really needs especially since being displaced as the king of Monmouth. #7 brings improving numbers and unlimited potential in this third race as a 3yo & off an extended layoff... that profile is the most likely and ablest to produce the largest fig improvement. We now just pray for a safe trip, as we only ride longshots in the remaining two races.
Speaking of longshots-- #1 would be our choice in here-- although we would prefer both a shorter distance & #6 scratched out. #1 has a sick fast first fraction it can throw to clear the field, however-- its turn time slows down considerably after that. Rider Ortiz has already brought in a couple of longshot frontrunners on the Turf this meet. It remains to be seen whether #6 elects to duel right away or concede early while tracking close up. At any rate, #1 would make an iffy choice... and counting the next two races, we can't have only iffy choices all day.
Oh, and back to musical jockey chairs: notice how Centeno elected to stick with Also Eligible Barclay Tagg trained #11 instead of #5(who's getting blinkers btw). Castro jumps back on-- & at sufficiently high odds would become a viable longshot play-- esp. third off the Euro plane & layoff(& off course, the able Castro aboard). We're not too keen on #11, in spite of clicking w/ Tagg @ 10-1 on the Turf yesterday btw. #11 is facing a field of seasoned performers, improving sorts and others with lots of potential...and would need to post a big fig jump(which it's potentially able and likely to do) to be eligible for the win, but others with faster numbers already are as well likely / able to post further numbers jumps. #11 may get a lesser award, but we would be extremely surprised it grabbed the top spot... to boot, the ML suggests little value premium.
8th: #8 our choice. Safe and / or alternate choices would be #'s 2 & 5. By our numbers, #8 actually sports the highest lifetime fig. Notice as well the rating ability at times-- it's precisely this we're counting on today. The last race, first one back from layoff, can be discarded.. by noticing in the pp's that it took several to get going in gear last year. May need this race as well-- but we'll take a shot at juicy odds: we hope for 50/100-1.
9th: This race is a projected tussle likely won by whoever gets the best trip. We can study the numbers all we want and pick someone drawn inside-- but that pick could get bottled up in there-- so we must go for value: #7.
Trainer Shuman's clicking @ just over 30% winners for Monmouth this year, and rider Fragoso makes for an able longshot steerer. #7 can stay close and then unleash a sick turn time open lengths better than its closest competitor-- to us, turn time, when combined with a superior other fraction(in this case #7's final fraction), is the ultimate arbiter of superiority and counterbalance / shield vs. troubled trips. At 10-1 morning line, we hope for 30/50-1 post time odds.
Race 7: race video down. We may be out of the contest. We may have bit off a little too much today, what with avoiding consensus choices here and betting longshots later. No sweat... che será, será...we have plenty of projects vying for our attention.
Chart up...great...missed by a nose.
Race8: internet video still down. another one bites the dust. Everything riding on trainer Shuman in the 9th.
Race 9: 22-1 @ 10 min. to post. Video still down, even charts from 7th race not up yet. No success for us today, no joy / entertainment even.
40-1... can't even watch race..... have to wait interminable minutes for just the results.......
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