Let's pause, take stock and gather our thoughts:
81¼% Eliminated so far.
Of the remaining 589:
224 sit vulnerable w/o lifesaver,
262 still have 1,
and 103 have 2.
Now, there are two keys to this contest, to be played out in the next 2½ weeks:
1. How the top two players with 1 & 2 preservers left respectively, fare...since they have put a bit of a distance between themselves and the rest of a fairly bunched group.
2. How do those with 2 preservers left fare.
Come August 1, anyone picking up a third lifesaver will be able to play more longshots than most of the rest, a deadly advantage. It's very tough to play catchup to someone near the top as it is-- one needs to catch not just one, or even two, but three or more longshots(two to catch up, but figure some of those ahead in the standings will also have caught at least one of them)... and if all the while they get to bet more longshots than one, the task becomes Herculean. Anyway, most everyone still in it will be swinging for the fences the last month. And it's not like if there's only one longshot a race one can easily target.
So, forget about a Silky Sullivan comeback in August-- both Extra Preservers and favorite domination(4 of 10 races won, 8 of 10 in the money) bias this Survival Course towards front-running speed...those not in front need to middle-move this month.
Two possible strategies remain then(we assume you're not one of the lucky 35 with a positive ROI):
1. Have patience and hope the rest of this month claims many near the top.
2. Take chances now & don't worry of getting eliminated early...for if longshots don't come in this month, then you weren't going to have a chance anyway. It would mean favorites didn't fall / leaders with 2-3 lifesavers would abound and stay in front the rest of the way.
Thursday's Plays:
Today's contest races are dreadful. It's a waste of time to rely(study) too much the numbers-- as the races are devoid of contestants capable of beating par(thus favoring longshots)...BUT as well sport suspicious heavy favorites that will likely carry in each contest race more than ½ the contestants' votes. So today, almost all contestants fall or almost all contestants advance.
We will avoid all manner of favorites, betting a longshot in the first contest race, and two middle prices in the others:
#2 in first two races, #11 in the last one.
A domani.
OK. We notice a dearth of early speed in the first two races, so we are going with a coupla longshot frontrunning possibilities:
2nd race-- #2 looks like the only speed
4th race-- #5 gets Elvis + 1st Lasix(trainer clicks 21% with this).
7th race-- We really, really wanted to select a longshot here as well(#9 is one candidate, for instance)... but we doubt a lot of horses here-- both main contenders and longshots-- can handle the expected pace of this race. So we took #11 w/ Bravo aboard...as added bonuses, seldom to you see Bravo overlooked by most contestants and/or not competing for race favoritism.
We get the best of both worlds: a nice safe choice to counterbalance our longshot stabs, while avoiding the contest consensus choices here-- so can still hope for many getting eliminated today. We then avoid heading into the last race(if our two longshot stabs failed earlier) either praying the third longhot stab succeeds or hoping the contest consensus choice(usually way more than half the crowd will be on it) comes in to save us(& as well give a free pass to almost everyone else). Because now, what's needed above all else, is for lifesavers & top contestants to fall off "before" the first of next month-- when everyone picks up another one.
Crappy odds on #2... 10-1 would lead us to look elsewhere. Up to 12, back down to 11... 13.... 12...18....21.... Hoping to pass 30, which should throw $100+ total across the board....23.....26...33....yippy ka yeh....35....47 on #3 btw......being pressed by #6..... now drawing off a bit... 49-1....5 ranging up.....both drawing off... 1 ranging up.... 2 quit......hold third please..... No luck... top two faves 1-2, so most everyone advancing today-- except for us maybe....LOL.....
4th....5-1 on #5???????????? wt.................7-1.... so-so start.... head very high-- either rank or uncomfortable or failing to settle into stride or being taken back.... early pace unexpectedly fast....midpack....no sighting late..........10 taken down, 5 moved up to fourth-- will have to look at the replay....oh, yeah....5 eased out early stretch to commence rally and almost immediately thereafter got whacked back in behind others--
7th-- Bravo 15-1?????? 8......... Late scratch........we get #3...not that bad--- we're not sure if it can handle today's projected pace of race though..........7 bails most of us out from runaway 10 @ 70-1... woulda been $210 total across the board....woulda won with an inside post draw. Favorite swerved out into others at the start, then back of the pack early & finally closed for distant fourth..
Horrible luck for us last two races.
No comments:
Post a Comment