There were a lot of good new changes made in this year's edition-- but we're not too sure about the automatic granting of a new(& additional) lifesaver at the start of every month + to boot, the lifesaver now working as a free pass in case all selections finish off the board(rather than being ONLY a free pass for one absent day).
The problem lies with Monmouth's extreme favorite bias-- in 4 & 8 out of every 10 races the favorite wins & finishes in the money, respectively.
So, this new format favors those lucky enough to catch longshots early in the contest to coast thereafter, with a strategy of 2 sure & 1 longshot per day thereafter; while those behind need the converse strategy of one sure & two longshots.
One might think that w/ such a favorite bias the latter strategy can be utilized all the time-- it might work for a while, but will fail in the long run "on an individual basis"... all it takes is one of the myriad of troubled trips possible, the horse has a headache, maybe a late scratch auto-transfers pick to a false favorite, maybe weather dictates a surface change(or the expected wet weather does not materialize and one handicapped for it in anticipation), etc. Notice we termed it "on an individual basis"... as on a collective contest basis it works all the time-- due to the sheer numbers of thousands of contestants, all possible combinations & permutations "each get covered by a considerable number of entrants".
In previous editions one didn't have to toss so much caution to the wind, as the great equalizer was prompt elimination-- no multiple free passes were available-- actually zero were available, as a lifesaver was only good for totally skipping a day. In previous editions, once considerably behind-- could still afford to play safe / let most ahead fall by the wayside...
But now with the new preserver format....plus everybody and their mother knows about the favorite bias... that's become an unrealistic strategy. We haven't kept detailed tabs, but we'd hazard a guess that over half the contest races have had a selection picked by more than half the contestants. In combination with that, there has not been one single contest day where all three favorites bit the dust. or more than a handful where two such favorites went down. The best one can realistically hope for is that races have multiple horses vying for favoritism-- and that a couple of them finish out... a slow water faucet drip type of elimination grind. Counting both early and late scratches, all that's needed is a race or two to whittle down to 6-8 participants, to allow most contestants to pass on to another day.
Let's take this year's example:
Firstly, the month of September is not part of the contest. Second-- those with one & two preservers will pick up in 1½ weeks their second & third preservers-- the leaders so benefiting can take a lot more longshot stabs than those behind them. Someone with three preservers can theoretically bet an entire week or more at a time of only longshots... & as long as at least one or two hit the board, continue trying thereafter. Although that is a strategy that cannot be relied upon if one is still in numerical range but behind many contestants: the sheer numbers dictate that the longshots one is fortunate to catch, will also have been caught by quite a few ahead as well.
In short, the many pitstops / extra chances, in combination with the abbreviated length(ends with Labor Day)-- bias this race to those frontrunners able to escape the start unscathed.
We can understand this new contest format "from the organizer's point of view"-- their aim is to have as many as possible in contention as long as possible. They might / would probably counter with the argument that of right now, 83% of contestants have been eliminated.
We've suggested to the contest organizers to make this contest a for pay event, in the manner of the Nyra Showdowns and more importantly-- to allow folks to buy a preserver instead. The substantial prize & preserver monies could allow payouts many places down(like in the Connecticut OTB tourneys), additional NTRA / World Series entries, etc. The buying of preservers would fulfill the organizers' wish to see more contestants last longer and would level the playing field a bit.
Imagine for a moment a contest with more than ten thousand entries opening day--Nyra gets lots of entries but can do a way better job with payment options-- either they've accepted credit cards or electronic bank account payment at times, buy never both... someone accepting those, paypal, google checkout...in person at the racetracks & simulcast parlors, etc. should be able to attract ten thousand as a minimum. Of course, it would entail allowing multiple entries. Now imagine the following additional rules & options:
1. Additional preservers(everyone gets one free to start with) can be purchased up to two in one calendar month(one would be allowed however, to use up the next month's quota in the present month) but ONLY after "being eliminated"... for $5 each(an extra $5 for each extra contest day that passes while having been eliminated).
2. At the start of each month one can purchase new / duplicate an existing entry in the following manner:
A. July 1 one can duplicate an existing entry, capped @ the breakeven ROI(of $18 a day, which is three across the board wagers on three horses. Today, for instance, is @600) for $20. Entries in the plus column would cost $30.
B. August 1 double July's pricing....
Total prize pool could top one million by contest end!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment