Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Saratoga Showdown Day 7 Wednesday July 30

Top 10 Selections for 7/30/2008
R#   No Horse Name  Percentage
2nd-  8  Akilina                 24%
9th-  7  Talkin Treasure   20%
9th-  1  Ice Cool Kitty       17%
4th-  4  Brooker D             11%
4th-  7  Storm Boot Gold     6%
8th-  7  Stormy West           5%
2nd-  3  Glory Gold               4%
3rd-  3  Kapanga                   3%
6th-  4  Summer Patriot       2%
1st-- 1  Dynaski                     1%

'Eliminee' Count:
1% after 1 race. Fave(& slight second fave placed) won the hurdles race, so those all likely just failed to sign in today... and who'd be ballsy enough to bet the jump race?
Second race in... absolutely glacial early fractions fractions: 22-3/5 first quarter followed by a turn time one fifth shy of 24 seconds...
ominously beginning to look like a fave fest day. Feel sorry for whoever gets eliminated today.
4th race-- Don't know how that favorite was able to win the show photo from those others. That's the only maddening thing about this contest-- bad handicappers suck up like that, while a solid choice elsewhere gets whacked to the moon.
5th race-- a cursory glance at a results ticker(only prices, no names) might lead one to conclude favorites ran out; but the two consensus ML choices are in the money.
7% after 7 races
6th race-- horse we liked in here, #3, stumbled at the start, then was guided too close to early pace in our opinion. It did, however, save ground along the inside until running into traffic, then found its way outside & closed for third.

8th-- Finally some semblance of a slightly favored contest selection bites the dust. 1½ lengths separate the first 7-- only ½ for places 2-7.
12% after 8 races.
9th race will be key-- hopefully both faves will not hit the board together.
No can do. Our other choice, had we had multilple entries, won by open lengths in a hand ride as the second favorite.
Should go under 10% remaining entries by the end of the day. Little by little...
Tomorrow looks like more of the same as today. Sharp downturn in field sizes from opening week.
10th race-- Not worried at all about our upcoming choice in the final race. Usually we are, no matter how solid it is, esp. when not running until late in the card. We however, MUST be correct re #9 running back to its number two back(read our analysis below)-- just repeating last race number would not only make this race a total tossup, it would not even ensure an in the money finish.
#12 worth a shot at those odds.... not too much early speed in here....
odds just dipped.... certainly a more worthy candidate than the other debuter, #7-- at those comparable odds, that is...
Okie dokie, we win, at good odds too. Horse just looked too good on paper; #'s 10 & 5 took too much money to be disputing favoritism-- compared to how they looked on paper vs #9.

 

Track:
FAST

Turf:
FIRM

Turf Races:
3, 5, 6, 7, 8

Inner:
Set at 9 Ft

Mellon:
Set at 0 Ft

Plenty of scratches today, making for small field sizes, by normal / expected Saratoga standards. We don't expect very many eliminations today-- but of course we will always hold out hope. To that end, we will try to avoid overly popular(seemingly) candidates...although not at the expense of avoiding a true, solid contender.

 

We noticed many solid choices today(listed in race analyses below)-- plus we likely missed considerably more... we just ran out of handicapping time; as lots of races scratched down to very playable sizes.
There's a couple of false ML favorites-- in the 6th race for one-- but not enough to cause many eliminations today in our opinion; although we've set the plate for such a possible appetizer by staying away from the races which will likely attract the most attention...waiting instead until the very last one.

 

OUR SELECTION TODAY: 10TH RACE-- #9

 

WEATHER

Scattered thunderstorms might hit the last 2-3 races. Rain arrival now delayed until nightfall.
edit: Weather.com predicts occasional / scattered thunderstorms from 4pm on, Accuweather from 7pm on....
We'll guess no rain before end of the card.

 

SOME "EARLY" THOUGHTS ON A COUPLE OF POSSIBLY ELIGIBLE RACES

RACE 2-- couple of key scratches, we will nevertheless pass this race... staying away from the favorite even though it has less competitors to deal with.
Many will likely be tempted by the smaller relative field size and favored status of #8... but this race could be a trap:

The experienced runners' figs are "way below par"-- thus making the race both vulnerable to decent debuters(they don't even have to be good-- they can be below average and still win), and to any experienced runner with a bad line that may suddenly wake up. At any rate, taking a small price & riding with the masses on such a runner makes little sense.
To boot, #8's comment line implies significant trip trouble-- we've watched the replay several times w/o seeing anything untoward. This horse does have two positives:
A-- Fast final fraction-- however, the first two fractions were very slow. B-- First Lasix-- could MAYBE mean it will dispute the pace-- preferable 'for this race' over the closing style displayed in its debut.

In total contrast to #8 sits #1: scratched
A--it encountered trouble severe enough to kill any win chances-- not readily apparent from the fairly innocuous comment line.
B--it posted a killer internal fraction... a turn time almost 10 lengths the better of #8. Factor in the ground lost early, and this horse figures to be open lengths clear of its experienced foes.
This is a horse with value & likely dismissed by most contestants-- has a good prep race under its belt, Cornelio stays aboard...

Also of note-- a couple of the debuters here show outstanding work tabs & are trained by very smart connections-- example: #3: its trainer has 28% debut win mark from more than 100 starts.

 

Race 9-- edit this race should be a strong candidate for us, however we will avoid because there were no scratches. We will instead hope that the lesser contenders all step up to the plate enough to knock one of the two ML favorites out of the money. We can afford to try this because there should be plenty of other candidate races, judging from the field sizes after scratches.

There are four possible winners here-- irregardless of how likely / unlikely their individual chances.

#7: is our top choice..albeit the favored #1 sports a faster fig to #7's second-best in here. However, if we factor in for the trouble in its last race AND expected development / improvement from 3 to 4 years old-- #7 has the potential to post the largest fig jump. It has a versatile running style & is perfectly drawn on the outside for this 7F race-- it can keep tabs on everyone while staying out of potential traffic problems. Cross out its last '07 race-- where something very likely occurred that necessitated a long layoff-- and there's only one out of the money effort from 10 races.

Like we stated earlier, four have a win chance in here(+ another fifth one has a serious in the money chance), so nothing is carved in stone-- but we like #7's chances to hit the board.

#1: top fig(which can further sport an improvement jump from the advance to 4yo), Trainer Dutrow  & ML favoritism will attract the most contestant entries of the day-- a big excuse to stay away if possible. Potential chinks: it's kind of under the gun from that rail post: either send or risk getting bottled up... and this is too long of a sprint to run w/o a breather.

 

#6: 2nd most eligible to post a 'large' fig increase: its latest useable sprint line was from second off a long layoff @ 7 furlongs w/ a jump from allowance to stakes as a 'new 3yo'. You can almost say the sky's the limit. @ 6-1 ML will offer great value / be dismissed by most contestants.

 

#3:  a slight, slight notch below the top two; however-- that's off 2yo figs. It could surprise, but will have to be real fit, sharp AND ready to post a new career top(nonwithstanding its frequent layoffs)-- as its main competitors will likely do so. It will also need a clear trip from that post. Will offer some odds value-- but is a little less likely than the top 3 here...could just as easily be off the board.

 

#2: Budweiser longshot to fill bottom exotics slots. A slightly further cut below main contenders, although it's a Saratoga horse for course on its third race off the layoff. Its trainer has an abysmal 2008 record... horse will need to fire on all cylinders & get a great trip from that post to hit the board here.

 

It's too early to say yet-- before scratches & latest forecast-- but #7 is a good candidate for our contest entry.

Hate to endure practically the entire card before finding out if surviving though......

 

 

ANOTHER POSSIBLE PLAYABLE RACE

edit: several scratches here may cinch this as our race. There will be plenty of favorites today-- the one on the very last race may be more advantageous to back for the purpose of staying away from overly popular choices-- just by virtue of its late in the day timing. 

Race 10--

#9: throw out last race-- against its preferred running style-- setting the pace as the inside horse of a three-way duel @ 6.5 Furlongs on the rail...on a day where the inside was not the best place to be. Although the early fractions weren't all that fast, it still wasn't able to relax or settle at anytime. We do like how it never stopped trying in the stretch, even after passed, as well also the energetic post race pullup. That race either sharpened its conditioning and/or proved how fit the horse was. Previous to that, its pace and final figs had been steadily ascending. A repeat of the race two back would decimate this field-- and it should get a similar stalking trip on the outside that will allow it to settle down / sit a bit during the early going.

Now don't go betting the farm on the nose-- a horse with a rating style is susceptible to any runaway pacesetter-- very possible here, w/ the presence of debuters. Now, that is not a likely occurrence because this horse is a quality stalker, able to track a very fast early pace-- but it's no guarantee for a horse drawn wide in a large maiden field. As well there're a bunch of entrants making their second career race after an outrun debut-- they could be anything.

 

RACE 6--

Idiotic entry labeling situation messing with post position numbers is totally out of control-- here they are in pp order:

3--- closer... young, rapidly improving horse throwing improving pace and final figs-- the ideal profile candidate for this type of race.

4--- closer... a bit like above candidate. Although at one year older, less eligible to post as big of a sudden improvement. It has been facing very slow paces-- so obviously, the faster the pace up front the more its chances improve-- although one never knows if a horse can handle a classier, faster pace until they actually prove it on the course.

2--- closer... susceptible as well to the kind of pace up front.

5--- closer... needs to show more numbers-wise to compete with main contenders here.

1a-- closer... needs fast pace up front for its late kick to be effective.

6--- closer / stalker / prompter... most eligible to steal the race up front. Possesses fantastic distance lineage.

7--- closer... the likely field trailer. Doesn't seem to win very often, but is capable on its best day & with a clear trip to take it all.

9--- closer / can stay closeup early / could take the lead with cagey jock aboard IF #6 passes on that opportunity... also eligible to win from behind with a clean trip.

 

Win contenders: 3,9,2,6

3-- qualifies as safest in the money choice.

No comments: