As of Saturday night July 12, 29 contest days have transpired(31 racing days actually, but two were cancelled due to technical problems)-- and counting today Sunday, 38 more contest days remain. So, 43% of the contest has transpired-- with 57% left to run...in other words, 1 & 1/3 again more days remain...quite a ways to go still. Don't count though, on too many more getting eliminated for three main reasons:
1. those who make it to thru the end of each month pick up an additional lifesaver
2. Monmouth's extreme favorite bias: 43% Win / 76% In Money so far this meet
3. remaining contestants are collectively far more savvy than those already gone
Of 3,142 starting contestants, 677- slightly over 20% remain. Of the remaining 677, between 1/5 to 1/6 still have two lifesavers left(this is the group we really need to worry about); just under ½ still possess one, and the remaining 35+% precariously have none left(& can largely be dismissed, with just under 2/3 of the current month still to run).
Figure on @100+ contestants remaining alive to the very end-- fluctuating from as little as 50, to as many as 200. In other words, this is not solely a 'survivor' contest like other Showdowns & Eliminators elsewhere-- where the winner usually outlasts everyone else without the contest having to run until the last possible day, nor any accumulated winnings coming into play. In fact, more contestants should remain to the end in this year's Survival version over previous years due to more leniency re lifesavers.
So what does that mean re overall strategy for the remaining portion of the contest? A lot depends not only on $$ behind, but on how many life preservers one has in possession. Let's use as an example our contest entry:
we are at @$465 + 1 preserver... 129 are still alive in front of us... first place currently @$832, $100 less to second place(this one actually more dangerous than the current leader, what with two preservers in possession), another $50 less to third. We can't go crazy yet-- you have to be in it to win it-- but we need to start making up some ground pronto.
A. IF we had two preservers left, we could afford an average daily strategy of one safe choice & two longshots, but--
B. With only one preserver left AND more than half the month left(until we can pick up another one first of next month) the above strategy is very risky. A bad trip in a large field, a bad start in this speed-slanted oval, etc. would leave one having to on average play two safes and one longshot daily. And--
C. the bad part of such a strategy is the mathematics re the sheer number of contestants: there will be 'many contestants ahead of one betting twice as many longshots for something like 2½ weeks'... might as well just quit and start preparing for next year.
D. One not only needs longshots-- but that is only the half of it-- quite a few others ahead in the standings will also be on our longshot winner. Meaning:
E. We need to pick at least one more longshot than everyone ahead of us AND a few medium prices in order to beat all those tied with and behind us who also picked that same longshot... a tall order indeed.
F. Those with multiple preservers are really in the drivers seat-- come the first of next month they pick up another one-- and can then do things like bet exclusively longshots for several days in a row. Enough of them do this, some will hit 2 or 3 and blow the contest wide open.
Just to illustrate how difficult it is to pick a winning longshot: off the top of our head there've been 6 25+ to 1 winning longshots & we've only been on one-- in the other handful of races we've zagged to a different(& losing) longshot. Take yesterday's contest day, which has been a microcosm of our last 2-3 futile weeks:
7th race-- no standout sure in-the-money horse / on final figs(adjusted) 6 of 9 separated by 2 or less lengths, 2 more within another couple lengths.
Race projected as multi-horse pace duel-- of those further back that could take advantage of the possible flameout, the 3(ML 10-1) looked to be outstanding value... and became our choice the night before. However, next morning we audibled to the 8-- the speed of the speed-- who had posted a monster pace figure open lengths faster than ever before(to boot on the heels of several very subpar efforts)...you always wonder in such a case whether the pace fig is legit-- and even then, whether it can be repeated.. + whether that would cause a bounce. As well the horse could get strung out 4-5 wide on pace on a track favoring inside posts. What convinced us was the possibility of the Dutrow juice guaranteeing at least an in the money finish-- he was a smoking 6 for 11 at the meet +jockey Desormeaux shipped in as well-- despite wide post drawn. And that unfavorable post + 4-1 morning line figured to throw a double digit win mutuel. Alas, it went off as the favorite-- & we had to content ourselves at that being a positive sign. Gates open, 8 goes to its knees a couple of strides out-- Desormeaux lucky to stay aboard. After spotting the field, it steadily loops the field and almost catches $21 frontrunner that won the pace duel. Our original choice got a bit bottled up on the rail and lost position between calls, closed to be fourth and got bumped up to third @12½-1 on a DQ.
Nonwithstanding all that, a big consolation was that almost 70% of contestants lost here; and the remaining two races were conducive to longshots presented a possible double whammy of a longshot winner for us + an eliminated contestant bloodbath.
8th race-- Final analysis: Contentious race: half the field plus one rates within one second. 2 main win contenders-- 3(ML 10-1) with potential for further improvement / 5(ML 9-2, Contest most-popular choice) a stalker who could best take advantage of speed bias, having been facing superior early paces recently; however, sports subpar finishing kick.
/ 1 secondary win contender-- 9(ML second favorite, Contest third most-popular selection) a closer with undesirable post & who needs a fast pace up front /
1 Budweiser longshot-- 8(ML 20-1) sporting beacoup weaknesses: facing accomplished turf runners as a 5yo turf debuting in a stakes race / on its 29th start, the trainer 1 for 38 over the years at Monmouth, 5 for 102 overall this year, 1 for 101 with odds greater than 10-1(worse: 0 of 7 when favored), zero in the moneys from 4 turf debuts, 0 in the moneys from 4 starts with jockey Fragoso(who while very able sported subpar Monmouth win % of 8). The horse's only plus-- adequate Turf pedigree on its mother's side---negatively balanced by subpar father.
Based on that, the bet becomes a no-brainer: take the 3 while avoiding the other two choices with glaring weaknesses & more importantly, tons of contestant selections. If the 3 scratches take the 8.
The 3 just jumped off the pp's: 5yo gelding sporting improving numbers that coincided with newly-found success @closing style, decent post, shrewd jockey Cotto aboard...the deal clinched by its double-digit Morning Line odds. Opened up 50-1 and we were drooling.... got pounded to 20(drifted to 35 last couple minutes actually)... But as soon as the gates opened we didn't like what we saw: $80 turf debuter sprints to the lead with three horses abreast chasing a length plus behind it-- our hero sandwiched in between. Eventually he got closest to the leader while inheriting the rail-- but in the stretch drive it threw its head around several times, as if not liking being on the fence and/or tiring from being too close to the front early...and faded to fifth... while the frontrunner reached the wire unchallenged.
The only consolation out of this race was that 200+ contestants were so far at zero for the day, with a bottom level claiming race coming up. However.....
10th race-- Alas, the consensus top two choices scratched out: one early, the other one late....leaving 90% of contestants riding on our selection #3(ML 4-1), who inherited favored status. We originally hoped for it to stalk the speed duel & hopefully pay in double digits. But that duel evaporated with the scratches, leaving the 1 to dictate the pace and win.
Tomorrow's analysis follows on the next post.
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