Saratoga Showdown!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That wondrous, magical time has arrived-- too bad NYRA does such a piss-poor job of promoting & selling it: this contest, properly-promoted should do 10-20 thousand buys; and over 100 thousand if elements of other competing contests, plus other innovative features were incorporated into it. That is a subject for another day though-- let's stay optimistic & focused:

It is just after midnite Wednesday, race selections were just put up, and there're 3,000+ entries so far-- we look for a minimum 4 to possibly 5 thousand entries by the 12:15pm deadline...making for the following approximate prizes:

edit: we were a wee bit optimistic-- the registration process just does not facilitate multiple entries that much....to boot, many folk may be leery of giving up bank account number on the web. Final fig: 3,684 entrants-- may actually go down a bit later, when they get back bounced transactions. Just subtract ¼-½K from the lowest fig for each placing to give you approximate prize.

1st- 15-20K
2nd- 8-10K
3rd- 4-5K
4th- 3-4K
5th- 2-3K
6th- 2-2½K
7th- 2K
8th- 1½K
9th- 1K
10th- 3/4K

We start with eight entries and the goal of sweeping the top five spots.

 

Some things to note for the first day's card:

1. It is due to start raining(& quite heavily) any minute now in Saratoga, continuing on & off for 13 of the next 14 days-- we kid you not. Look for the track to be sealed all day-- and we'll all have a better sense of how wet it is by midday: could be anything from fast to boggy.
We doubt the latter though-- unless the rain is totally nonstop, track maintenance should be able to utilize all its tricks to keep the surface fairly close to fast for the first day at least.

We actually hope for a swampy mess with a quicksand rail-- we would love nothing more than seeing something like 90% of entrants eliminated immediately.

2. Today's card is chock full of large fields comprising almost exclusively of Turf & 2YO races. Will races stay on the Turf? We'll guess yes... if only to keep the field sizes large, rather than 4-5 horse fields after scratches galore. There is one dirt sprint--
3rd race-- with 7 entrants only + a consensus best bet of the day / clear on the lead favorite / with a win on lone off-track effort / who shouldn't be at this level anymore save for an unlucky DQ two back, followed by a second against the bias last out...we wouldn't be surprised if 90% of entries jump aboard. We will tag it with one of our 8 entries-- so as not to get eliminated if everyone else passes-- but we will look elsewhere for the bulk of our entries.
We hope that the rail is dead tomorrow AND that Jerkens & Dominguez in the next stall over decide to duel & keep it pinned against the rail-- we wouldn't be angry over an accidental bump out of the gate as well.  The only chink with that scenario is that #2 may not be able to keep dueling much further than the half if the rail is not dead-- so Bridgmohan on #3(best contender here btw) should hopefully be alert enough to sit just outside the two speedsters and pounce before entering the far turn.

3. The other horses that should get some backing from the masses look vulnerable:

Race 2-- #2 we hope for the following negative scenarios: it breaks from the rail btw-- bad rail, closer against speed bias, closer will have to loop field / encounter traffic problems, dislikes wet going(though already worked on wet surface), majority of debuters turn out to be superior, etc.

#8 Race 10-- #8 could be strung out too wide early; could be deteriorated goods between age & Lake doping(notice the steady drop in class and/or stay at same level in spite of winning)-- very few horsemen are able to successfully claim dropping horses off trainers like Lake, Shuman, etc... if even able to race them again ever. The lone short & terribly slow workout(esp. for a speedster) inspires zero confidence.

4. There's very little sense in working up any detailed analysis now-- scratches & surface conditions could make the effort totally fruitless. We will endeavor to stay clear of the public choices tomorrow, while hoping to see a minimal number of scratches & worsening weather conditions.

 edit: Too many scratches for our blood left ½ the card with small fields. We now hope a few things happen to consensus choices:

A. uneven portions of surface lead to negative / unexpected biases.

B. most jocks figuring a speed bias will engage in suicidal fractions-- reversing expected results.

C. off-track pedigree conducive to Saratoga rears its head-- it can trump general / traditional wet pedigree stats, big time.

 

Not knowing "for sure" how this first day's surface will play, and how much more the weather will continue to affect it as the day transpires, we've balanced out our 8 picks to take advantage of all possible scenarios, to wit:

dead rail / inside
the opposite: golden rail / boggy mid track
extreme speed bias
disastrous pace duels

We paid very, very strong attention to wet track performance & pedigree, and trainers (Bruce Levine)
we also hedged with some public choices, in case a the day turns into a fave fest.

Our favored pick of the day, if we  had to put all our marbles on one runner, is

#3 Icetate in the 3rd Race. A young, improving horse on its third race off the layoff--with a versatile running style that can allow it to track the two main speedsters, duel them if one wants to scamper away, or take back and close if they want to get crazy up front. Now, it won't necessarily win this race-- #1 could scamper away alone, maybe even on a golden rail, but it should finish in the money. Wet track ability & pedigree are optimal btw.

Summary of our picks:

HEDGES / JUST IN CASE

1 on #2 in the 2nd--  one of the consensus choices today has impeccable wet track pedigree and a race under its belt...finishing 2nd despite some trouble. On its own merits, this is not such a strong or value bet, BUT it serves actually as a double hedge: coattail the public and the Asmussen / Bridgmohan combo(3rd race), which we just cannot fathom being blanked off the board in both small-field races.

2 on #1 in the 3rd-- we actually hope it falls over the rail... it will likely be carrying way over ½ the contestants today.

1 on #1 in the 10th-- ditto all reasons for both of the above-mentioned horses.... & trainer Levine is winning at an ungodly 40+% clip.

STRONG BETS

1 on #5 in the 6th-- Levine again, this time on a multiple winner at Saratoga and on wet track. Only gets one vote because it might get into a too strong pace duel & is the morning line favorite. This selection also serves as a backup to the 10th race, for the same reasons we gave re Asmussen entries.

3 on #3 in the 3rd-- for all previously stated reasons. And if this race had 5 entrants like others in the card, we would've let it carry at least 6 of the 8 picks. BUT, you just never know here: it may get outdistanced too far early(on a speed-biased track the two early duelers may finish one-two...making #3 have to beat ALL the rest), may get caught wide early w/ that part of the track not being the place to be....

 

INTRA DAY OBSERVATIONS:

Looks like inside the place to be so far....

1st race-- sorta ok results: although ML fave came in, actual parimutuel fave tanked-- taking as well with it all bets on scratched entries.

2nd race-- not great results: although we are now guaranteed to play tomorrow, first two strong ML choices came in-- very few eliminated here.

3rd race-- looks like the 1 should air, given the way the track is playing-- unless our choice has made monstrous improvements. After this race we'll break & come back this evening.
#2 either still too green or didn't handle wet going...that's the only break #1 needed to scamper away untouched.

 

Yeah...looks like a fave fest day..... still, 10% are out already....

 

DAY'S WRAPUP:

All in all, we're satisfied with this first contest day-- in spite of the combo small field & favorite fest-- almost ¼ of all entries were eliminated. An average daily elimination of rate of 20% guarantees this Showdown will come to a conclusion before meet's end... as has been the case historically with most Showdowns. That means that all we have to worry about is surviving, w/o tiebreakers like most Wins, highest single mutuel, etc. coming into play.

And more importantly today, we only lost one entry(finished fourth after bumping at the break)... a significant victory after having spread out the selections to cover different possible track bias scenarios.

Speaking of--  in light of how the running progressed throughout the day & as long as the wet weather continues, we will likely lean tomorrow towards closers / pressers + middle to outside posts. We will only play early speed if it is quality(rateable and/or able to duel fast and win),  will not get pinned to the inside, and/or looks to clear substantially early.