We're out of preservers, so we'll be on autopilot from here on out, mostly avoiding the top consensus choices in each race. Anyhow, if favorites keep coming in, then we weren't going to catch up.... As well a safe strategy like playing two safe shots & one longshot is no guarantee of staying alive-- one / two bad trips and/or late scratches into a false favorite is all it takes. ..yesterday being a perfect example.
"We need to take MORE chances at longshots than those ahead of us". Rest assured that many, many holding 2 preservers-- + maybe a third one come Aug.1-- will be firing lots of shots.
As well there are other tournaments-- we need to realistically budget our available time...all the while daytrading & handicapping cling to our apron strings.
In the first two contest races, we're wagering former rider getting back on to re-right the ship. BTW yes, many of you may / will find a lot of glaring weaknesses, negative stats, etc. w/ our choices... the same holds true though, for all entrants in these mule races.
2nd race: #1: may be able to control the pace here with Cohen back aboard.
4th race: We believe the race will go to someone in the first flight or thereabouts not too far back(#'s-- 10 / 7 / 9 / 3 / & maybe 5)whichever of them is most in the mood to run today-- as the rest may find themselves far, far back early... one of the reasons we don't fancy both ML faves w/ Bravo & Lezcano aboard.
#7: very positive to see Mariano back aboard in spite of last two running lines. Obviously, the drop to the bottom claiming level is a very strong angle-- the trick being to ascertain the dropper's form is not shot. We can maybe forgive the last two lines-- the route early pace being way faster than anything previously faced, and the short sprint for 'maybe' not having been persevered with after losing all realistic chance with the tardy start.
6th race: #3 The pace figure from the Florida race puts this horse way out in front alone, barring any of the debuters wanting to / able to dispute the pace. And that fig was put up while almost still a two year old....now it's over ½ year later. It's interesting to note though that Trujillo on a similar type of horse yesterday(to boot getting first Lasix) actually took back(far back actually) and rallied late...we wouldn't complain w/ rating tactics... assuming the horse is rateable... would then finish that much more strongly.
As always, we'll re-assess when scratches come out later.
Final look-- no selection changes.
We'll take the 2nd race result...sort of-- a longshot & a medium shot await-- & 2/3 contestants are blanked so far.... Of course, our atrocious racing luck continues== 3 straight trouble-trip races in a row(counting yesterday's fave we got assigned to after late scratch).
4th-- make that 4 straight here...got squeezed back to last....another one bites the dust. #9 wins....& along with #10, were much better odds than #7(from our top choices). Although if we strictly had gone by price, the 10 @ 20-1 would've looked a lot better over 9's 12-1 Morning Line. Real irritating to see most suck up & pass another day(third on Bravo)... and tough to root against favorite-- knowing a big price we didn't have would likely win instead. At least #4 finished out...... but it was a distant second to #1 in contestant selections.
6th-- not a great start: a bit s-shaped / slight bumping...ehh, coulda been much worse. Barclay Tagg can be very deadly when he takes off a few months to school & prep a horse. And we get heavily backed 7 & 10 off the board....doesn't help that much though-- Bravo's heavy fave did manage to hit third last race.
We're still waiting for at least one major chalk-bustin' bloodbath day... not one single one during this contest...almost happened twice: once Bravo saved everyone by a desperate nose over the fourth-place closer, another time a false favorite was about to take almost everyone with it, but offshore money, which came in during the race, made someone else the favorite.
We need a couple bad days to get most of the lucky riff-raff out / clear the way for serious strategizing and playing.
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