Contest Update ¼ of the way thru-- personally, we've banked 6 out of 11 unplayed races needed. We should have two more-- we erred twice in not canceling a bet in timely fashion(longshot ML odds going off @ single digits)-- we further need to make up that extra minus -$200 somewhere along the way.
No longshot's won yet for you? Do NOT yet fret about the standings... have bit of patience...and take comfort in the realization that anyone so far with any kind of plus bankroll is an automatic contest no-chance. Then, among the current minus bankrolls, cross out the chances of all those with non-$100 multiple amounts. Further crossouts would be those @ more than minus -$500:
firstly-- not all races have had live longshots, IF ANY AT ALL...
but more importantly, only max. total of 3/4 of the races can be played-- so anyone who doesn't bank unplayed races now, will not be allowed(mathematically speaking) to play any races at the end-- & if to boot they've wasted picks on low-odds entrants, they're just too OUTGUNNED-- sporting a bb gun against uzi-toters-- to stand a chance in this contest.
Another appropriate analogy could be a Nascar race: drivers who don't ration their alloted fuel maximum(31 of 42 max racecards), and/or stick mostly to the slow lane on the track(slow lane = lower prices, passing lane = longshots).
Just betting good value is not enough "for this contest"... one needs "extreme value".
Every CAP longshot winner is worth 3 low-teen odds winners / 4-6 high single-digit odds winners,
TWO CAP winners are worth FOUR high-teen / low 20's winners!!
Two longshots in here--
5- NO CHANCE
3- SMALL CHANCE
We'll expound a bit later on...
#5 has consistently put up figs open lengths worse than almost all these... to the point that its career best would place it at the rear of this field.
#3 could find itself either on a lone lead or pressing the flank of one other not so fast speedster... then again, speed on this surface & 6½ furlongs may well be a dicey option.
It does have competitive figs that at least place it in the ballpark... so it's not necessarily money automatically down the drain.
We'll take a shot, but will demand cap odds, not just 'kinda longshot' odds similar to its Morning Line.
10 min to post. absolutely nothing going on.... everything in the teens and below-- #3 @ 10-1....
these are the odds offered w/ 5 min. remaining:
11 --- 12 4 17 7/2 7 7 2
We pass-- & now have 7 unplayed races banked-- out of 11 needed.
See you Tuesday nite.
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