HAWTHORNE SURVIVOR FIRST DAY FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14

Many, many kudos for updating leaderboard right after the last race.

PLAYERS STILL IN:  984 of 28272828…one added to total halfway thru the card

Top 10 Contest Favorites

11.72% selected #01 Prairie Cruiser in race 1 2nd by a neck

10.73% selected #07 Sassy Shore Breeze in race 2 eliminated

10.30% selected #02 Roaring Scout in race 1 eliminated

8.93% selected #06 Sure Start in race 1 very distant third

8.21% selected #09 Cape Adare in race 9 1st by a mile-from dead last, circled field

6.96% selected #07 Lemonade Kid in race 6 eliminated

6.41% selected #02 Bad Bandit in race 4 distant 2nd

5.26% selected #04 Takedown in race 8 2nd, 3-way win photo

4.71% selected #04 Booboo Bee in race 3 eliminated

3.61% selected #06 Light Sleeper in race 2 eliminated

2.41% selected #01 Ms Manipulator in race 5 1st by ½

Over ¼ gone already after just the first DDouble…1/3 after the initial Pk3..

…2/3 total eliminated first day!!!

Dang…how it must suck to be gone before the very first running leaderboard is put up—it must feel like getting eliminated “before the start even”….
The eliminee’s punk associates will prolly ask later on: “Yo, slim… don’t see you in the leaderboard….how ya doin’ in the contest?”
At first the eliminee will pretend he didn’t even hear the question…if the punk persists, he’ll give him a hard stare followed by: “STFU!!!”…. or conversely, a combo 1/3 embarassed, 1/3 nervous, 1/3 defensive bad actor lie: “Which contest?” “Nah… i changed my mind…had something else to do around the first race…” “Yeah, that’s right…i was just too busy then…”

ROTFL

Click here for Hawthorne Live Video from CBS & YouBet 30 minute maximum per day…open & close link for each race only. IP address tracked, so switching computers won’t bypass limit.

Area getting lots of rain—scheduled to continue on / off until just before racetime.  Figuring they’re used to this up there—and with the dark days to prepare—they’ll have the oval in decent condition: meaning no boggy mess, but rather sealed, extra front speed-favoring.

EDIT: With about 1/¼ hours of signup remaining, there are just under 2,800 entries….so about 3K should be final number. Look for over half to as high as 3/4 being eliminated today right off the bat.

One semi-favorable feature: allowed to change choice until the 30 min. before first post deadline.

As far as our choice: with a bit over 1½ hours until first post: 8-5 to 3/2 to 7-5 fave over second choice #6 @ 2-1…everyone else offered 5-1 or greater. More telling is that our choice , actually the second Morning Line choice, has dominated the lower place/show pools to a much greater extent….therefore it may well end up going off odds-on.

EDIT 2: Not many more contest registrations—2827 grand total…which suits us…only first place gets money.

Even better news from the odds board:  other horses taking money…hopefully likewise as far as contest selections.

Okie dokie—choice is a go, repeat: choice is… a…. GO...

The biggest worry today is whether the prolonged & abundant rain creates a swamp, perhaps with a quicksand inside, favorable to closers & wide posts.
Workout times this morning were expectedly very slow, however—there are few announced scratches for today’s racing.

If that occurs, our choice should be easy to maneuver to the best possible part of the track….and hopefully be able to slow down the early pace sufficiently.
Otherwise, any other surface bias scenario should immensely advantage our choice.

RACE 1

Look for the rail horse to have its way alone on the lead all the way.

There are no other frontrunners in this race… it can run 10 lengths slower early than last race and still be clear on the lead by 5+ lengths. Assuming, by its breeding, that it doesn’t dislike wet going….it should romp home. This is only its third career race & second at the route—so it has room for further improvement….in contrast to its foes who have combined for a grand total one place & two show finishes from over 20 races.

Think about it: it’s got the rail on a sealed track at the shortest two-turn route possible, w/ ZERO competition up front—no duelers, stalkers or pressers…no other foe comes in with ascending figs(in fact just the opposite—they’re all exhausting every possibility: blinkers on, blinkers off, lasix, sprint, route, layoff, class drop, rider switch, etc.)….if it doesn’t win today…

Seems like a great contest candidate—we’ll know for sure after looking at the rest of the card.

As for the rest:

#5 could grab a piece—lost a lot of ground early last race, but could improve big with blinkers on for the first time.

#3 Should better debut effort by facing a much less demanding early pace today.

#6 & #2 should duke it out for a lower share. Who knows if the former threw in a clinker last time due to first time blinkers(which come off for this race) or the wet going. Who beats who? Depends on the trip & what part of the track will be better—inside or outside.

#4 Seems up against it, yet has always received a lot of money…at higher levels too.

 

We wouldn’t take anyone else besides #1 here—any of the rest would be no surprise either in the money or dead last.

 

More races coming up…and other tracks after that as well……

 

OK…….. nothing else jumps out…. let’s leave it as our interim / pending choice— prior to scratches / track maintenance report / how the weather transpires….

EPILOGUE

5 nails 1 at the wire…@ a great price. It actually took a LOT of money early on…dipping to 9-2 & looking like it could contend for 3rd favorite…before fading steadily.
Hopefully ML fave 2 took a good amount of contestants down with it.

Weirdly-run race though….anxious moments early for 1: got pinned on the rail and didn’t even make the lead; although a bit later on you could tell its jock wasn’t pushing it at all. As well the riders didn’t steer their mounts out into the middle of the track—just the opposite—two or three skimmed the rail.

Track surface appears very well sealed… and HARD.

See you later with tomorrow’s card.