RECAP: THE DENVER UNDER, DENVER SIDE, AND MIDDLE OF OVER TEASES LOOKED ALMOST GOLDEN FOR QUITE A WHILE.
THOSE OF YOU THAT HOOKED 2ND HALF TO OHIO ST. TOMORROW—YOU’VE WON THE OVER AND PUSHED WITH DENVER. EDIT: OHIO (MAC) hopefully you caught this glitch…only OHIO playing….
EDIT7: YOU SHOULD STAY PUT….YOU HAVE BOTH SIDES COVERED, WITH A CHANCE TO MIDDLE. HOWEVER, THERE’S A CHANCE TO MAKE FURTHER MONEY--
2 TEASERS:
COLL.FOOT. OHIO ST. TOMORROW w/.
DEN/NO nba SECOND HALF OVER 98
DEN –2 SECOND HALF
EDIT6: Good things come to those who wait….games looking better. The only thing dicey is the NBA under—looks like a track meet so far. We just were able to semi-cover that by taking DEN side. We may be able to see something at halftime for you…we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.
EDIT5: EXPLANATION OF THESE SECOND HALF BETS
We’re not trying to protect the various parlays—whether yesterday’s continuations into today, or today’s new ones-- for a couple of reasons:
A. yesterday’s are themselves a reverse protection of main plays…at some point you run out of possible profit, barring middling most hedges.
B. today’s parlays were already structured / split with protection in mind—both football sides are semi-protected by OVERS.
We did see some extra profit potential in today’s second halves(irregardless & separate of whether it looks like our original plays are losing--more on that in a second)—so we are attempting to use those to protect today’s NBA nightcap AND hopefully middle both the original bet and this Teaser Criss-Cross Reverse Hedge. Coincidentally, one of those reverses does protect one of the main games—the Texas side…so extra gravy for us.
As far as our bets not looking so hot early on:
A. NFL Ariz likely won’t come back to make a game….but the Over protection should hit.
B. Coll. Foot—we did manage to cover the reverse of Texas…albeit w/ the reverse of the nightcap. There’s only so much you can do—sometimes you’re gonna take a loss. Although there’s still a good chance Texas will keep gradually wearing down A&M, and the latter will press & commit mistakes / give up turnover points.
All in all, we’re not sitting too bad…esp. if we can middle some things.
EDIT4: 1½ UNIT TEASER: NFL SECOND HALF currently at 23½ w/ NBA OVER of Den/NO
EDIT3: TWO 1½ UNIT TEASERS: OVER of Den/NO w/:
SECOND HALF….TEXAS A&M currently at +17 / OVER of SAME GAME currently at 30
EDIT2: THOSE OF YOU WITH TWO OPEN SERIES, DO THIS:
1½ UNITS EACH…Key UNDER of Den/NO in two-team parlays with:
College Texas / Coll. Foot.OVER of Texas / AM
EDIT: ADDING SPORTS
Those of you with open series from last night hooked with Arizona NFL do the following:
2 units Teaser: Ariz OVER w/ Coll. Foot.OVER of Texas / AM
1 Unit Parlay: Texas w/ NBA UNDER of Den/NO
All others:
Key UNDER of Den/NO in two-team parlays with:
Ariz NFL / Ariz OVER / College Texas / Coll. Foot.OVER of Texas / AM
Ensure you peek in during halves—we will look to protect games, esp. the NBA. FYI the overs above semi-protect / hedge the individual sides.
Wake up early—we start the day off @ 11am w/ Calder’s first race. We’ll have horses & sports for you.
CRC Calder Race Course
RACE 1
WIN CONTENDERS
5[6-1]---- May have a lone lead…
7[8-5]---- If healthy, fit, and ready would decimate this field…as its ML odds suggest.
2[4-1]---- Best closer—chance for top prize if frontrunner tires and 7 is not ready or suffers a trip mishap.
The rest are overmatched.
BTW #1 is best of the rest, but is a career maiden…and even though it will be advantageously placed inside, we recommend LAYING it(betting it to LOSE at an exchange).
EDIT: The way the post time odds go—7 is 1/5, 2 & 5 are 5 & 8 to 1 respectively….the play becomes a Dutch of: 2 & 5 WIN & EXACTAS: 7 OVER 2 & 5 & 1
RACE 5
WIN CONTENDERS
2[3-1]----Has improving numbers & the fastest closing time… projects to sit just off the lead.
3[6-1]----Small chance of winding up alone on an early lead… a danger at this short distance. Now, that is not very likely—but couple that with a decent price—& it becomes a must play.
7[5-1]----With continued improvement AND a clean break, ditto # 3. We actually prefer it over 3…but price rules(projected).
Just to clear up: the distance of this race, coupled with the young age of these horses, makes this a tough race to key on any one.
It’s very likely that 3 & 7 would duel each other into exhaustion, thus setting things up for 2.
And it’s actually even a bit more likely that 7 will win the early lead.
But….. if watch head on shots of the start of races consistently, you’ll notice how this type of horse is not very good at at clean / straight break—it often is a wonder how many of these don’t fall down / are left behind at the break. As well, there are no others in here fast enough to keep up early w/ either of these…couple that with the short distance of this race… the small price of our leading contender(2nd ML fave)…and it’s tough to bet that the break will be uneventful for all.
LAY(bet to lose) CONTENDERS
IF you have access to an exchange, these are the candidates:
1- Cheap speed. Even when able to make lone lead, it falters late…at shorter distances to boot. This horse is only suited to bullring ovals where 4½ F distances are regularly carded. The coup de grace here is that its fastest early speed still places it some 10 lengths back of the quickest ones here.
4- Slow early and slow late…. should finish among the back of the pack.
6- Looks like a declining horse based on figs--- kinda confirmed by the rather quick & repeated willingness of its connections to lower the asking price. NOW, we could be wrong…maybe it just bounced off the wet track effort…BUT as the ‘clear projected favorite’ makes no sense to back w/ our money. This horse only makes it into the win contender group with multiple scratches in the main contender group.
EDIT: KINDA LIKE WE SCRIPTED IT, NO?
AQU AQUEDUCT
RACE 2
WIN CONTENDERS
Looks like only one possiblity==
2[3-1]— projects to have the lead all to itself.
2B[3-1]-entrymate has the fastest closing time.
BTW re ML favorite 6—looks like a career maiden…we will put it in LAY group.
LAY(bet to lose) CONTENDERS
everyone else looks overmatched… we will look to lay 8[safer] before 6(ml fave).
EDIT: THIS ONE THE OPPOSITE OF PREVIOUS…. TRANSPIRED BASS ACKWARDS OF HOW WE PREDICTED.
ALL IN ALL, THE PONIES THREW A NET PROFIT FOR THE DAY FOR BOTH YOU AND US—WHETHER PARIMUTUELLLY OR EXCHANGE-WISE.
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