Boxing Mosley-Mayorga

Add to your parlays:

Fight won’t go the distance –150 (67% profit).

IF you don’t have any parlays and wish to do standalone betting, then take:

UNDER 9½ ROUNDS +105

For those of you advanced bettors that will need to reverse / hedge / dutch, the reverse play is:

Mosley Wins by Unanimous Decision(split decision win will lose your bet!!!) +170

OR:

Fight GOES the Distance  +130

EDIT: Almost got middled out--

the fight almost went the distance…. and one dweeb judge had Mayorga leading.

Actually, we don’t agree with the decision to rule the fight ended @ 2:59(one second before the end): the fight ended and Mayorga knockout was not saved by final bell… the fight WENT the distance AND Mayorga was knocked out.
So, some bettors should’ve been able to collect on both sides, depending on what exact props they chose:

Fight ends in KO

Fight goes the Distance

should both be winners.

Simulcast Picks of the Day Saturday September 20, 2008

PHA PHILADELPHIA PARK RACE 5

#5-- Should go wire to wire. It will be tough extracting value from exactas though-- it's hard to separate the other experienced runners 2, 3, 8...and they won't offer much odds value. If you have to play exactas, set the combo with the likely favorite, 8, as a hedge(breakeven)...and as well add the debuter #7 PLUS any other debuter whose odds are longer than #7.

A better option might be DD(w/ 4th race) or Pik3... although we won't be handicapping those other relevant races.

 

EDIT: We weren't around during racing, but the odds gods hopefully shone on you... esp. if you followed betting advice of next race-- which should be de rigeur ALWAYS... favor larger odds and eliminate or downgrade or use only as saver underlayed odds.
These are the odds of the entrants we mentioned: 11, 8, 6, 3, 8/5
The candidates turned out to not be as underlayed as we figured.

So, however you bet this race, you should've made money: exacta paid $155, TRI paid $1,210

 

BEL BELMONT PARK RACE 9 "GRADE II GALLANT BLOOM HANDICAP"

Severely underlayed & vulnerable bridgejumper-type favorite here:

Indian Blessing-- three reasons:

1. Figs have not improved this year(going by our numbers), while those of all its foes are currently ascending. This is a classic example of a precocious horse that early on beats up on foes that take longer to mature... to boot vs small & perhaps mediocre fields, usually while having its way on early uncontested leads. This type usually gets its comeuppance the second half of the year, when meeting foes that are catching up & passing in terms of growth... and its own growth(vertical) has topped out.

2. Race shape tilts toward chaos-- most of these can set the pace or rate...so maybe nobody wants the lead, someone steals it, most burn each other out in a duel...who knows....

3. There is very little incentive both race purse and future breeding value wise in a Grade II race for a multiple Grade I(& Breeders Cup) winner... having already achieved that status @ both routes and sprints.

Who to bet then? Just invert the Morning Line:

Porte Bonheur-- should offer outstanding value @ 12-1... with ascending numbers in spite of trip problems. Want another reason, hidden at that? Our figs rate her tops in here.

Zada Belle-- mini-me version of above @ 6-1

Elope / Sugar Swirl-- one of these could steal a lone lead...former holds much better value @ 8-1(as well is so lightly-raced that it could be anything / has the most upside potential)... latter is underlayed second ML fave.

In conclusion, we rate them in this order:

Porte Bonheur & Elope equally.

then

Zada Belle

then the two underlayed faves.

 

EDIT:  4 horse field and two encounter trip problems...

One scratch...one contender became underlayed...blah race to bet. Although if you did, the previous race should've put you firmly in the black for the day.

Simulcast Picks of the Day Tuesday September 2, 2008

 

PHA PHILADELPHIA PARK RACE 9

The winner will be one of the following three:

#5 The most likely... & to boot not undervalued. Possesses Early Pace(2½ lengths), Turn Time(2 lengths), Closing Fraction(1½ lengths) & Final Time(7 lengths) superior to all here.

#2 Could be anything / won with plenty of reserves left... but will get an acid test vs #5 here. Still, a bet should carry value-- judging by 6-1 Morning Line.

#1 Another one that should move forward from impressive debut, overcoming traffic problems to post decent time, nonwithstanding claming class rank. Although it is the most likely to pick up the pieces should the early pace collapse, it may yet again encounter traffic problems while stuck down on the fence... and will likely by underlayed...as ML fave.

The rest are really up against it here:

#6 Second career race, first time lasix & the troubled debut-- broke sluggishly, then rushed to set the pace while wide-- signal a possible impending fig improvement...or maybe not: could be strung out 4-wide in a 5-horse pace duel while will not getting a clear lead, & to boot having to run a longer distance of ground. And don't expect a great odds premium, as Morning Line fourth fave. At best you could do a reverse Exacta Saver on top of main contenders, but even then, only if the prices are large enough.

#4 Yes, it's a closer in a race chock full of early speed...and it sports improving pace and final numbers...but all that still leaves it 15 lengths behind the projected final time here. And will offer poor value as the ML third fave.

#3 Won despite a not so smooth start, but that bottom maiden claiming rank is very telling: Early Pace was some 10 lengths slower than what it could face here... Final Time almost 20 lengths slower than the projected final time here.

#7 Even worse than above...can't even win yet at bottom maiden claiming level.

 

Depending on how the earlier races run, scratches, etc. we will decide on either # 6 or 4 for a LAY bet... as well as any possible exotics bets.

 

EDIT: no one unduly favored... exacta box of win contenders returns almost a $5- equivalent payoff on total investment.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Forty-second & Labor Day

Next to last day.

#7 second pick.

#8 first pick.

Not our day though-- #8 drops from 30 to 14.... #7 goes from 20 to 40

And both numbnuts go up to contest the pace...@ 7 furlongs on synthetic surface... unbefriggin' lievable.

Simulcast Picks of the Day Monday September 1, Labor Day 2008

 

SAR SARATOGA RACE 10 GRADE 1 HOPEFUL STAKES

 

WIN CANDIDATES

#8 CRIBNOTE----------------- Race shapes up for him to mow them all down late; may be the best two year old this year. And at larger odds than main foe, just might be the best bet of the season.

#4 MUNNINGS---------------- Talented speedster eligible to take them all the way.

 

SAVERS / LOWER SPOTS

#6 MEDAGLIA D'ONORE---- Offers fantastic value, bbuuttttt...MUST fulfill the following three:
clean start, clean trip, continue fig improvement.

#1 BREAK WATER EDISON-- Small though unlikely chance at the win IFFF several things fall into place:
it continues improvement of both pace and final figs, it's able to stalk pace closest of all from the rail, speedsters tire each other out, and #8 encounters trip trouble.
It won't offer much value though, as third ML fave.

BOTTOM SLOTS EXOTICS

#3 COGNITO------------------ MUST rate / not get involved in pace duel to have a chance...as well as get a trouble-free ride.

#2 DESERT PARTY----------- MUST continue improvement to have a chance at the bottom slot of Tri / Super. Won't offer much value either, as fourth ML fave.

#5 VINEYARD HAVEN------- Not a whale lot to recommend, but could surprise a bit back on dry footing-- and don't often get the chance at double digit odds with Trainer Frankel.

 

LAY(lose / tossout) CANDIDATES

#7 NOTONTHESAMEPAGE-- You can safely eliminate this underlayed horse from Win consideration. It won't get a clear open lead here, has to race an extra furlong, and its other pace competitor, #4, has faster Pace & Final numbers despite hitting the gate in its debut; as well factor in its foe's expected improvement in second career race.
#7 will be more cut out for routes with easier early paces next year.
Its only chance to even pick up a minor award here is if it can rate just off #7 @ a slower early pace-- it's removing blinkers in preparation for that...it will also need #7 to 'cooperate' w/ either a bad break or by not sending too fast early in this long sprint.

 

THE WAY TO  BET THIS RACE FOR A POSSIBLY LARGE PAYOFF

1. Go to a Betting Exchange / Trade and LAY #7-- should pay somewhere between $2.25 - 2.45. Use that projected payoff to:

2. Play Supers, but structure tickets to avoid more than two single-digit entrants in any one combo. Possible examples:

Firstly, bet 1K Lay 7...this will give you a coupla hundred. Secondly, with our main choice, let's make an exception & cover most possible combos underneath it, irregardless of odds.

8 with
4/6/1 with
3/5///4/6/1 with
2///3/5///4/6/1
48 combos @ triple per combo than the bottom 2 tickets

4 with
8 with
1/2/3/5/6 with
1/2/3/5/6
20 combos @ double per combo than the bottom 2

1 with
8 with
3/4/5/6 with
2///3/4/5/6
16 combos

6 with
8 with
1/2/3/4/5 with
1/2/3/4/5///7
25 combos

Field size makes this bet kinda low in value-- if any longshot gets scratched, then a better bet might be:

3. Doubles / Pick Whatevers using 8 & 4...6 as small Bud Longshot or Saver.

 

THE WAY TO  BET THIS RACE FOR A SURE PAYOFF

Check back near post time-- there are several options, depending on odds & pool sizes:

1. LAY 7 No decent price offered. We almost posted a substitute choice for LAY: #1... but that post position is awfully dangerous to LAY.

2. 8 to Show or Place...maybe even a dutch one of those pools and Win. This is what made the most sense: 2 Units Show & 1 Unit Win @ Exchange slightly over 9/2 odds. Horse didn't win, but you still got an equivalent payoff on your total investment of almost $2.47.

3. Win Dutch 4 & 8...that's best done at an Exchange-- where there's enough odds to also cover savers on 6 & 1. Not enough profit to cover everything.

4. 8 win Dutched to Reverse Exacta 4/8. Quiniella would be ideal...but stupid NYRA offers that only on some races. Woulda lost...and didn't compare safety-wise with option 2.

EDIT: So Frankel jumps all the way up beyond our 3rd & 4th place slots. To add insult to injury, @ a paltry 9-1. Tell us that the vet wasn't juicing today and that the inner circle wasn't tipped off. What a crock. As for our heroes, another couple of crocks:

#5 was making a winning move, but blew the turn to wind up in the parking lot...still recomposed itself to re-pass all others again-- except for the winner.
#4 repeated gate problem...was unhurried early, then gradually closed while very wide to finish third.
And, #'s 1/2/3 played bumper cars at the start...par for the course at this racing age.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

LAD LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 8

#3-- Lays over this field.

#4-- Second Best.

#'s 6, 5, 1-- Fight it out for lesser spoils.

#7-- Would have to improve immensely to contend here...on the other hand, should offer a good price.

#'s 2 & 8-- can not only be tossed out, but are as well severely underlayed.

#8 scratched...pace scenario a bit cloudy-- #2 has very inferior pace fig, but is only confirmed pacesetter. #3 @ 1/5. PASSSSSSS

EDIT: wasn't expecting to see #'s 3 & 4 duel for the early lead.

And actually, there was money to be made with this triple-- esp. since 5/6/1 were longshots-- coulda done something like this:

main ticket-- 3 with 4 with 6/5/1, then reverse for a lesser amount the place and show positions.
saver ticket-- 4 with 3 with 6/5/1. Only 9 combos total.

 

DMR DEL MAR RACE 5 I'M SMOKIN 100k STAKES

Wide open race...a lot will depend on riding tactics and who gets a good trip.

 

WIN CONTENDERS

#7--- eligible to take it all...decent price too. Lordgivemealift could turn out to be a nice horse...could also get cooked in a pace duel here.

#9--- very dangerous at a price. Negatives: needs a fast pace of race to do the most damage, & may not get it here.

#2--- ditto above, except as an underlayed ML favorite.

LOWER SLOTS & WIN SAVERS

These are a notch below above, but since none of those are cinch, then the value odds among these, if any, can be bet in the top slot:

#8--- a revert to closing style makes it dangerous, to say nothing of top jock Bejarano jumping aboard. Won't offer exceptional value though.

#11-- won debut despite traffic problems, expect a much improved fig for its second career race.

#1--- can get a piece stalking from the rail. Today's Pace of Race may be too quick to its liking though...and won't offer much value.

BOTTOM SLOTS EXOTICS

#3--- won wide-trip debut. May get a nice(or horrible) trip today from that inside post. Expect an improved fig in second career race, and at a better price than:

#10-- won wide-trip debut, but the trip today may wind up even wider. Nevertheless, expect an improved fig today.

EDIT: Charge of the Light Brigade finish--two underlays had to take first two spots: 2/1/10/11

 

DMR DEL MAR RACE 9 GRADE 1 DEBUTANTE STAKES

There doesn't seem to be a dominant & able pacesetter here. As such, the race can be stolen by someone alert, or can descend into chaos.

TOP 5 CONTENDERS:

11/8/5/7/3

EXOTICS LOWER SLOTS

10/2/6/4

longshots in red       

Okie dokie-- Exactas:

Box 11/8/5/7 for 4 times as much per combo as the LAST sequence.

Key Wheel 11/8/5/7 OVER 10/6/4 for 2 times as much per combo(half of above sequence)

Reverse Key Wheel 10/6/4 OVER 11/8/5/7 for half again as much(quarter of first sequence) plus one time 5 over 2.
37 total combos.

Hold off on above exactas for a bit....

EDIT: We left and got back too late. Good thing, as two of our main contenders, 7 & 8, went up to contest/press early lead. We need to hold a seminar for jockeys out there: 7 furlongs on synthetic, you hold back and move late...especially if your horse is not a pacesetter by nature. Crappy, crappy meet with artificially high purses & subpar racing.

 

EVD EVANGELINE DOWNS RACE 9 LAFAYETTE 100k STAKES

#'s 4 & 3 tower over this field-- two horse-race.

The rest, in order of preference: #'s 7, 8, 2

Racing canceled.

 

MTH MONMOUTH PARK RACE 9

Look for a pace meltdown here. Toss out #'s 1/5/2.  Exacta Box #'s 3/6/4

2 Scratched... now things get dicey early-pace wise: 6 will likely elect to stalk/press, but 1 & 5 are inconsistent pacesetters. We don't wanna chance a lone frontrunner beating us. Anyhow, there's no value here with our main contenders-- 3 & 6...nor with anyone else for that matter. We're tempted to LAY 1...very undervalued...but: PASS

EDIT 2: actually, let's hook #3 back and forth in exactas with ALL...put a bit more on combos with #6, less with #1.

EDIT 3:  and those of you who followed our original advice quadrupled your exacta investment... had the triple too.
They made the garbage #1 favored...but those odds weren't reflected in Exchanges-- a very underwhelming $2.90 LAY price offered(should be more like $3.40-3.80)

 

RP REMINGTON PARK RACE 7

#3 Looks strong here-- hook it in exactas with 4 & 1. 7/2 all way down to 3/5... no value-- PASS.

#2 Is a tossout and LAY candidate.

EDIT: #'s 4 & 1 unexpectedly cooked each other in an early duel.

 

RP REMINGTON PARK RACE 9 CLEVER TREVOR 50k STAKES

#3 Looks very strong here.

#2 ML fave looks very underlayed.

#1 We like it better than #2, and carries a lot more value.

#5 Has a chance if pace melts down.

#'s 4 & 6-- Projected Pace of Race looks to hot for them-- they'll likely bring up the rear.

SUGGESTED EXACTA TICKETS:

#'s 3 & 5 hooked back and forth with each other and over 1 & 2.

EDIT: Exacta 5/3(4-1 & Even Money) pays whopping $34