Saturday was a fave feast day-- and only 1 of every 11 entries was eliminated. For the contest so far, a bit less than 2/3 are gone. Today looks more encouraging in that respect-- only a couple of absolute layovers seem to loom; field sizes are probably the smallest since opening day, although by just a little bit. Things could still turn out ok after all, IF few scratch out.
With the improved weather finally here to stay for a little bit, Sunday & Monday portent well / seemingly will give us a break from spreading out on our contest betting. So far, we've utilized 16 horses-- as many as 5 in one day; and would like to cut down to just 1 or 2 a day.
Later...
UPDATED WEATHER FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE RAIN, FROM @ THE SECOND RACE ON.
We will endeavor to detect someone in the first race best-advantaged by the likely hard-sealed, still-dry going.
RAIN NOW DUE MIDDAY, BEFORE RACING STARTS! CONTINUING UNTIL MIDNITE....RETURNING MIDDAY MONDAY.
Racing started, no rain yet.
Let's see what scratches and possible surface changes bring as a result.....
Track: GOOD
Turf: YIELDING
RAILS: ALL @ ZERO feet
RACE 5- OFF TURF @ 7 FURLONGS!!!
Preliminary, previous night's thoughts on the card:
Race 3--
#8 could win IFFF able to rate, IFFF able to handle fast pace of race, IFFF keeps increasing figs. Orrrr, could finish off the board. And at 6/5 Morning Line will carry so many contest entries on its back.
#3 could win IFFF last race's lower fig was due to bouncing after wet track effort... AND is now ready to beat previous fig, which was career top. As well, it could be advantaged by any falling precipitation today.
Race 6--
We believe the Morning Lines and Speed Figs of the 3 non-debuters are erroneous.
#1 Our top choice of the three-- @ 12-1 ML!!!!!! Faced VERY fast pace, then closed into LOTS of traffic.... was outrun hopelessly far back / obviously had little chance; so it looks like the rider just used the race as a training tool--taking two / three separate small closing bursts in stretch.
How fast was the pace of that race? Well, as a hopelessly outrun closer, it posted a pace figure 2-3 seconds faster than the other two.
All in all, it was a good schooling race in many other ways-- was able to break from post 9(of 12), angle in a bit, thread its way thru horses...
#5 Consensus choice because of fast closing fraction vs upset Schuylerville winner... but its pace time was horrendously slow; and that just doesn't cut it with us: anyone can lope along for one quarter, then follow that with ONE single fast furlong-- big deal.
#3 we believe its high speed fig is false... while putting up a pace figure even more horrendously slow than #5... and a much, much slower final fraction. For those of you who bet Exchanges, this horse is a LAY(bet to lose) candidate.
CAVEAT: this doesn't mean #1 is a lock... unless it demonstrates ability to set the pace, its running style leaves it very vulnerable to any of the debuters able to throw a quality early pace. As well, it could also get hopelessly bottled up inside.
Race 10--
We highly encourage you to demand value here. Yes, #4, the people's choice, can win-- but so can a handful others-- some at astronomical odds.
This race is tricky to handicap by the numbers:
a. one entrant's number may be false.
b. even more significant--some of these with seemingly inferior numbers have had long breaks in which to grow considerably-- predicting the new higher number is paramount.
Win contenders:
7-- double digit morning line odds and one of our favorite jocks holds a lot more appeal than the favoritism of the next one. Toss the Belmont, add expected, normal growth improvement....and you have a contender. Sheets adherents will readily recognize a known pattern: a series of a good effort following a bad one.
4-- prone to bad starts / slow early going...although hard to play against Asmussen's current hotness.....
6-- has a small chance to scamper off alone... not too likely though.
1-- we suspect his last improved number is false. If we're wrong AND it continues with another jump in number, it could take it all. Or it might get bottled up inside the whole race. 6-1 is a borderline morning line that can drift down or up...demand value.
The next two are more worthy of the lower slots of your super ticket-- although at over 30+ to 1 would also merit win value:
2 & 5-- similar reasons as #7.
Next one is not a win contender, but w/ a 30-1 morning line & Bill Mott training, leave out of the bottom of your tris and supers at your own peril.
And the last one is a Lay Candidate for those of you Exchange players: #3... inferior speedster to #6.
See you at scratch time.
One more race:
Race 9--
This is a race lacking a committed "pacesetter"; ergo, this is a rider's / shrewd connections race: ripe for the taking by a go-getter.
It is also a race where the chasers / pressers / stalkers show slower early pace numbers than the closers; and to complicate things, a couple of the closers are vulnerable to a slow early pace. As well there are some versatile ones in here capable of employing the different running styles.
The closest candidate to a pacesetter is #6-- who prefers to either: lay just off a true pacesetter, chase a lone pacesetter, or stalk a two-horse duel... in other words-- it prefers to relax a bit early on, instead of tackling pressures and responsibilities from the get to.
However-- the early pace numbers it's been involved with have for the most part been so abysmal-- that we could make a case for it being a closer... a closer so outclassing its fields that it wound up close to the early pace; whether naturally and/or by design from shrewd jockey tactics.
Next-closest candidate is #7-- but in only two examples in recent pp's: one was in a wet track, where the closer-than normal running style can either be ascribed to a particular affinity to the going and/or being rushed up after the poor start because often it's hard to close on sloppy going and/or the running bias then was not kind to coming from behind.
In the(only) other example shows pressing / dueling a rather slow pace-- but that can be assigned to rider tactics, as was caught wide with most of that small field being fairly bunched up early.
Keep in mind too, that both those are the two outside horses-- not so fast early-- vulnerable to jock tactics to their inside. Especially from:
#2 is maybe the actual fastest early horse-- coming from sprints and from stalking a very fast early pace in a route. However, the jock is not the gunho gate type...hopefully Allen Jerkens will properly counsel her... and continue the 'giant killer' lore. And it seems to be advantaged by wet going.
#1 could be called a stalker-- or maybe not-- in both examples the early pace was so horrendously slow, that maybe it just found itself there by chance(more likely jockey tactics-- notice the shrewd riders aboard).
#3 Nick Zito and Chop Chop can shrewdly read a Racing Form-- and notice the relatively fast early fractions their closer can throw in spite of the laid back running style..
#4 mimics #3, though to a lesser(slower) degree-- and is getting blinkers...
¿ See how all of a sudden, depending on connection thinking, this race could even turn into a multi-horse pace duel?
Further complicating the handicapping of this race is that NONE of the entrants fulfill the most important factor in these type of races: improving numbers(#2 may qualify, but is numbers are very slow compared to the rest...#6 qualifies 'slightly'); some even show up and down numbers.
For instance:
#7: maybe it bounced from previous wet effort... or maybe the slower fig was due to the faster early pace. May do well with changed, wet forecast...
#1: regressed last time-- maybe that was due to the slow race pace-- otherwise, previous number takes this.
In light of that, we can perhaps reward consistency-- those who throw their usual number irregardless of conditions-- in order "and level" of fastest to slowest:
5,
then 6,
then 3 & 4... the latter seemingly advantaged by wet going.
All that leaves us with 5 & 6 as our base-- with 1 & 7 capable of either winning or finishing in the back. Disregarding odds & profit, an exacta player would thus bet: 5 & 6 with each other and on top of 3 & 4, then 1 & 7 with each other and on top of 5 & 6.
Let's see if any scratches simplify and/or point to someone specific.
In order for us to be able to key on one for the contest(more likely either 5 or 6), we'd need one each to be scratched from the following three pairings:
1&7
5&6
3&4
CONTEST SELECTIONS:
Boy, what unsettled weather. We don't care if it rains one way or the other-- but as long as it 'predictably does one thing or the other'. NOT this will rain and doesn't / won't rain and does... ir it's gonna rain, let it start also in the morning-- instead of part the races get rain only.
NOW...if one could input a selection right up until posttime... then no complaints.
2 entries 3rd race: #8 jockey Alan Garcia-- an underrated jockey(at least by lofty Saratoga standards) who has been riding very, very well both here and at Monmouth-- came thru yesterday in a similar situation for us-- rating a speed horse vs a very fast pace. We need this horse to rate rather than duel because 3 & 6 can get crazy up front with a pace considerably faster than what it's put up so far in its brief career. So the main question mark is: can it rate vs a very fast pace(not just the slower paces it's been able to rate against in the past).
As a plus our hero handles the off-going. Speaking of-- #3 could well turn out to be a mud lark-- & just romp home. That is, if it recovers from the last race bounce...otherwise could bring up the rear as well.
The obvious minus is that our selection may well be the most popular today by far. EDIT: carries 42% of all entries today.
3 entries 5th race: #14 a nice, safe, consistent choice near the top in almost all of the various numerical categories. Has only been out of the money once, is trained by on fire Trainer Dutrow, handles the off-going, has a versatile running style... Big plus: not highly regarded in the Morning Line.
EDIT: has become top contest choice in this race.
So, we're balanced vis a vis the public: once with & once against.
BTW we tossed our 6th race choice, #1, due to the weather uncertainty. Could be stuck on a bad rail, on a wet course over which it's totally unproven.
INTRA DAY--
GGRREATTTT start to the day: 1A, carrying 7% of entries, off the board. OOPS...sure hope today doesn't turn into another disappointing favorite feast, like yesterday. 5% eliminated after 1-- that's mostly from those failing to sign in today, than from losing first race picks. Today's top selection numbers:
Top 10 Selections 7/27/2008
R# No. Name Percentage
3 8 City Roar 42%
10 4 Pyro 13%
1 1A Yelt 7%
9 5 Mamb.in Sea. 5%
2 2 Cribnote 4%
5 14 Stars. Cruiser 4%
5 1A Boss Tiffany 3%
9 3 Amped 3%
10 3 Mint Lane 2%
3 3 Critical Cathy 2%
KEY CONTESTANT RACES--
3rd-- is very crucial, w/ the 1st & 10th choices.
A couple of others have a couple of top ten choices each as well:
10th, 9th, 5th.
Race 2-- Yo!, WCFields! How you can make odds-on favorite a maiden with a closing style against 5 debuters @ 5.5 Furlongs beats us: Top selection #5 today?!!?! We've spent hours and hours handicapping...precisely to avoid having to select such a horse. We coulda saved all that time...jeez....
Race 3-- Here we go yo, here we go.... 3/5...Would you sacrifice 2 of 5 entries so that 42% of all remaining entries tumble in just one race? We wouldn't. We actually thought a little bit of splitting the two entries between 8 & 3, the actual winner.
Real mixed feelings now... we'd better be very careful the rest of the way.
Actually, in a lot ways-- having too many entries can be needless / a hindrance-- a single daily entry on the best bet of the day can work well: barring bad racing luck.
And Saratoga is the toughest / most unforgiving of the three NYRA tracks. With the other two-- there are always plenty of 5-6 horse fields to find succor in.
We should be somewhere in the teens percent surviving contest entries.
For whatever it means-- out of 18 horses played to date we've had 3 losers-- each loss was due to a start problem.
Race 5: we'll take favored status as a real strong sign of confidence. We may even end up @ odds-on, from the looks of it.
Good... we just wanted a decent start-- as long as the start warn't an issue, the numbers ensured a good finish.
After 10 of 11 races-- 17% overall remaining, 54% down today.
Something to think about: more than 3K, of original 3,684 are out already.
