First of all:
whatever opponent we pick….and whether you take our advice and/or bet on your own--
“you will not go wrong if you blindly bet the + odds”. For, even though you may pick the better fighter, the judges may confound you, the ref can err, a fluke injury or ko can occur, etc. If you take too much prohibitive chalk, you will find yourself needing to win 2/3 to 3/4 of your decisions just to break into the black.
For tonight, we are keying on two fights:
1. Anderson Silva
Yes, the odds are prohibitive…and he’ll eventually lose one day… but not to this opponent. And with Silva, you won’t get any overconfidence or lack of training issues.
The odds are currently –675…. @ 14.82% profit.
2. Thiago Alves over Koschek +120, down from +130
We have no idea why Alves is rated underdog—his opponent cannot carry his jockstrap. However, Koscheck does have to style to muddle through the fight, keep it on the ground… and then who knows what the judges will decide….
SO….. we suggest the following betting plan:
1. Bet 2 Units on Silva AND
2. Bet most of the projected profit of above on Alves.
So, say your unit = 1K…. bet 2K on Silva and $300 on Alves. You may want to lower this last bet to say $250 to have a guaranteed profit / cover cost of sending bet funds to book, etc.
Other options:
Add Silva to all your parlays for the day.
IFFFF you like Silva opponent Cote, fight won’t go distance odds are –700.. a good way to have both fighters covered.
If you need some action bets at good value, Tyson Griffin @ +215 could be a possibility.
NOW, we are not touting him or betting this match…. but the value is obviously there.
EDIT: We neglected to specifically mention him, but the win by Junior Dos Santos @ +450 is a poster child / perfect example of our value mantra. Say you bet 5 fights @ 1K each… the payoff for this fight, @ 5.5K guarantees you a profit for the night! It won’t matter whether you lose all the rest / any other wins will just be gravy.
