Days 6 & 7 -- Monday & Wednesday

MONDAY

We were busy / not around... this was a wide-open race among several closers-- the onus should've been(as always) to ONLY consider the longest shots-- going by final odds, we would've been considering #'s 4, 5 & 7 @ 12, 10 & 26-1 odds respectively(yes, 9-10 to 1 is the cutoff point for inclusion in speculative bets) . Now, who knows how the odds would've been trending & been @ 5 min. to post(@ the safe limit to try and get contest bet in).  Maybe the middle-odds horse had been coming down from 8 or 9-- meaning toss out. Maybe the biggest longshot had been coming from 30+-1, in case it would've merited carrying all our contest dollars exclusively.
When we have a LONE  LARGE odds contender, 25-1 is our cutoff point-- above it we single it, below it we combo bet it with any other(s) double-digit odds contenders. In case you're wondering why, a 20-1 contender's odds can drop to the teens after the final off-shore money dump... you can then wind up with a single loser  w/ odds in the high teens and some other missed winner @ odds just slightly lower, say low teens, that you had tossed from consideration. Anyhow, at that odds level we need twice / thrice as many  winners to win the contest--keep in mind we'll only hit between 1 in 10 to 1 in 3 bets... we're better off collecting something at a much higher hit rate; to that end-- sometimes a solid contender @ single digit odds, that is fairly certain to hit the board, may be a better option than boxing 2 or 3 uncertain contenders with odds in the teens each... the total NET wouldn't be that much higher & the hit rate would be much lower.... a risk / reward consideration.

BTW above horses finished 1st, 3rd & 7th: either we would've bet all three(IF the 5 odds had been higher early), or only combined the winner w/ the rear-finishing one, or exclusively singled that larger-odds trailer.

Of note, we did NOT like the place horse no matter @ what enticing odds it would've been offered: Migliore still tends to ride too much towards the front early on(even though he's stated he realizes the late bias)-- with closers he tends to ride mid-pack & start his late move a bit too early... with today's result a typical microcosm: he finishes close but ends up getting passed late. 

PS earlier we've stated we dutch contest contenders-- we wish to change this to a reverse Dutch: this rewards larger odds AND minimizes the ground made up on us when the largest-odds contender wins, by those who've exclusively singled the winner w/ a full amount bet of $100. In this race's case the 7's odds are 26-1, 5 = 9 or 10-1, 4 = 11 or 12.... here 26 is a little more than 10 + 12 combined, so $55 to 60 can go on the 7, $25 on the 4, the left over(from $100) can go to the 9.
If say, we had tossed the 9, then the two bet amounts could've been $70 & 3o. Of course, you can reward extra brownie dollars to any contender, based on your handicapping.

WEDNESDAY

As with Monday, there're a few contenders, led odds be your final arbiter. Also one caveat-- any horse with the usual near the front style, which we eliminate outright, has a chance to win IF it endures some early mishap that forces the rider to settle early & make a move late OR maybe a new rider elects to take back early-- prime upset chance for some no-name rider to perhaps bring in a longshot):

1- lousy post for a closer & low % rider... demand great odds premium.

2- deceptively-good jock that shouldn't attract undue betting action.

4- ditto above, except the trainer is 0 in the money for 2007.

10- disregard Hol races, where beaten by others here...if jock is smart enough to lag back early, the win is in sight.

11- demand odds premium, rider not so hot.

BTW above are POST POSITION numbers only.

Good Luck.

Recap & painful weekly lesson

Let's try and take some lesson out of this disaster:

Firstly, the difference in the outcome was the rider: Rosario patiently outrode Talamo, who moved a bit too soon.

Second and MOST important: on this new-type of surface an early plodder is not an automatic tossout, esp. in a large field: the sheer number of horses almost guarantees a faster pace(ergo the front & anything near it will be backing up that much more late) & affords the plodder a better chance not to lose contact w/ the field.

 

As far as the contest: a consolation is that only @ 30 contestants had the horse-- we can still catch up, as long as there are at least two/three more bombs during the remainder.

Day 5 Sunday July 22

We are absolute morons, yes-- plural.

Last night we bet the standout fave here(because he just towered over this field), hoping for a non-odds-on price today.

Today, while simultaneously playing in two blackjack tourneys online, we tuned in w/ 5 min. to post... looking to ascertain our choice's odds(if too low, we'd either downgrade bet from win to lesser pool, or outright cancel the bet) &  for any playable cap horses.

We noticed three longshots, and discounted the chances of all except for the longest shot: its final figs were not encouraging, but late speed put it in the ballpark.... + new trainer, 2nd start, jock switch added to the intrigue....
then we said NAH! We'll just change the fave bet from win to place or show, since win price was kinda low....got shut out attempting that switch..... .....and.....

you know the rest.......

Multi-tasking & thinking with the clock ticking are not our strongest suits.

Our only contest prayer now is to exclusively bet longshots from here on out, no matter how hopeless.

Good luck all.

Days 3 & 4 Friday & Saturday

Friday: we were on the disqualified and much best show horse @ 12-1(yes, we broke yesterday's plan, but the odds on just about everyone else here were abysmally slow). FYI we disliked the 2nd, 4th & last place finishers, gave a chance to all the rest, most offered at miserly odds.

Saturday: Busy / traveling / shut out.

Day Three Friday July 20

World record holder One Hot Wish will scratch out, + we're not too crazy about its remaining entrymate(even though kind of highly-regarded)... therefore race is wide open(even the maidens have a chance)-- the only sure eliminations are I Dig Her & Warren's Appeal.

We will single anything firmly entrenched beyond cap level... so considerably over 35-1(we want to avoid late action lowering odds to 20-1 or below). Otherwise, if both halves of #1 entry stay in, we may take them in the money.

Day 2 Update

We actually did not make post time. We likely would've thrown the fave out and win-dutched the other three... tripling our total bet(don't think we'd've thrown out the second-fave entry, as the odds on the other two weren't that much higher, plus we liked the second part of the entry also-- a little bit though. Actually, no one in the race was offered at great odds-- maybe a little bit the winner: ruled the field class-wise & was let go @ 9/2. Otherwise, not even our peripheral contenders for the lower exotics slots: 8 & 5 offered any great value.)....

The only surprising part of the race's results was the early duelers holding on for place & show-- but when you see they were able to clear the field while putting up close to 26, 51, 1:16, 1:41 internal fractions-- no wonder.

As far as track profile so far-- it seems that at all distances & surfaces closers do well-- esp. those with superior turn time & that can start getting into contention a bit earlier.

 

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Day Two Thursday July 19

Win Contenders w/ ML odds:

1A: 5
2: 8
7:8
9:8

A lot will depend here on which jock best understands the surface winning profile(closing)... plus, any of these horses is just as likely to finish off the board as to take the whole thing.

1A: Has been facing much better, can the inconsistent Blanc do the job? Won't get great odds, w/ Frankel training...

2: Throw out its initial try in this continent....However, it will have to loop the field from that post,  + Migliore tends to ride forwardly-placed: a further negative....

7: Carries the best jock of all these....who's been riding well lately. Eligible to improve the most as the only 3yo...

8: Not crazy about the jock...although should consequently carry the largest odds....If able to duplicate last race's running style............

 

We doubt any of these will be let go at 25+ to 1.... We'll wind up either backing the 7 in the  money, OR win dutching any offered at sufficiently-large odds...we'll try to post actual contest selection later.

Day One Wednesday July 18

We didn't get a chance to post anything here before the race went off.

FYI To our handicapping service clients we released 1/2/6/7 as win contenders, recommending an exacta box, which hit. (Race results: 2/1/3/7/8/4/6/10/5)

As far as the contest, we were on the longshot 6, who loomed boldly and then hung. Both 6 & 7 may have been too close to early pace... even though it was extremely dwadling-- it looks like the way to win this year(at this short route distance) is to lay way back, then make a move late. In previous times, early speed has given a good account of itself at this exact distance-- but in all divisions of this Oceanside,  winners came from the back of the field & their final quarters ranged in the neighborhood of  22 / 22 & 2....to boot the slowest closing fraction was put up while overcoming traffic issues.

For the record, Victor Espinoza on the winner, gave a heady ride...overcoming tons of traffic trouble(which he may have caused himself by uncharacteristically not taking the overland route, as he's traditionally been wont to do).

Del Mar Online Handicapping Contest

Requisites for winning:

1. You must think ahead & look at the big picture / NOT get caught up in insignificant day to day standings ranks & moves...more on this further down the page.

2. You MUST catch longshots!!!!! Particularly cap horses- 35+-1..... There will be  from one or two to as many as three or four 25+-1 odds winners this meet-- you must NOT let more than one of those get away from you to have any shot at making the top 100, which is really only HALF the battle!

The other half? Well, if you succeed in accomplishing that...with as many as eight thousand  other contestants to deal with-- most of whom realize the importance of shooting for price, there will be a core group of anywhere from 50 to 200 that will have matched you-- you will need to have collected other smaller prices along the way for tiebreaking purposes.

3. Your 'biggest challenge' will be to determine for EACH race if there is any likely, standout winner @ whatever price... & whether any longshots have any legitimate chance. With 43 racing dates available, IF you play longshots willy-nilly: 40+ days of losing stabs offset the mutuels of two longshot winners. You will need also to collect lesser payoffs, and this can be accomplished one of a couple of ways:

win dutching, show betting, etc., depending on how many legitimate win contenders you're left with... and as well their odds. If say, you have an odds-on lock, you might back him for place or show... if you're left with 2-3 contenders, you either should back the longest-odds for place or show OR win-dutch all three: your object is to collect something(that will move you ahead of those that WILL be on those same long-priced winners later on in the contest... ).

Why do we not recommend win plays on lesser odds-horses? Odds as high up as the teens are not worth it: you'll be lucky if you can hit more than 1 in 10 winners here-- you're much better off collecting lesser prices at a higher rate: little by little you may be able to accumulate enough lesser daily winnings to equal one longshot winner's worth of mutuels; and "more importantly"-- anyone you fall temporarily behind(who had a win bet on that lesser-odds horse) is NOT a contest threat... they will eventually fall by the wayside: as they are employing an incorrect strategy. You MUST be considerably in the black on all your other non-longshot plays.

4. Play every day.

5. Pre-select something as early as the night before....you can bet & edit your picks right up until 'close' to post time. Play close attention to their close-off time, which they will adjust during the day to account for delays in previous races, BUT-- their running clock onsite can be a bit behind. Anyhow, you won't really need to cut things that close: odds must be over 20 to warrant a lone win bet, otherwise..... IF you do get shut out before post time for any reason, you can email your pick to miles and/or mary(look up their addresses onsite and add them to your contacts):
have your email client already-opened, filled w/ your pick, & addressed to them before making your pick, just in case.... one click will quickly do: if you have to start opening your email client, searching for their contact addresses, typing out your message, sending it(while hoping your connection does not suffer any slowdowns)... then you're at their mercy when deciding if your message arrived before post time(and remember, their clocks are a bit behind....which they refuse to acknkowledge). BTW their phone #'s are not direct-- you must wait until operator connects you through... gets a hold of them....
Make a choice early...then you can always edit it closer to post time.

6. Until proven otherwise, assume a closers' bias at all surfaces and distances...except for maybe the 2yo dashes.

7. Be willing to forgive a recent subpar race-- esp. if distanced / not pushed late, yet given a strong gallop out...and if now going off at large odds-- most such examples were likely pointing for this meet.

8. Physicality should play a huge role this year:

 Race day-- who looks like they do & don't enjoy the new surface and surroundings...