The ignomity of it all: we take #1 @25-1...& a good chance of odds drifting to cap...only to watch them plummet to half that. To boot we don't get the stalking trip we figured on, but a determined effort for early lead...@ 9 furlong distance. To add further insult, someone we liked-- though not at the odds-- #4, wins @ just a couple points less: 10-1.
What a crappy Del Mar season.
PHA-- PHILADELPHIA RACE 6
Race where no one has run to par. Additionally, the odds-on favorite is vulnerable and the obvious contenders sport suspicious $$ drops and/or layoffs.
1-- Its pace figure is inferior to #8...thus will not get an open breather while having to run faster early...this is a very long sprint...you do the math.
So who is eligible to win then?
6-- Its lone 2yo race, despite slow break, is alone enough to contend-- w/o even taking into account a better break, expected improvement as a 3yo, etc. HOWEVER, the long break and steep class drop, w/o at least one more try at the MSW level-- or even a higher claiming price-- especially after attracting substantial handle in its debut-- makes it a tossout... to boot, it likely won't even command value odds.
8-- We hate to see such a long layoff after a sudden, improved effort. Still, it's an obvious contender. However, should something be wrong with it or doesn't break well, #1 could then be left alone on an open lead.
7-- Eligible to pick up the pieces of the pace duel, expect improved effort after an entire ½ year of races on the wrong surface and/or with trip mishaps.
2 and 5-- Very, very interesting debuters. Will carry tons of odds value in a race with subpar foes(ergo can still win the race with a BELOW average effort). VERY LIVE, do NOT leave out of your tickets.
3-- Debuter with supbpar connections and pedigree leaning towards late development and route racing.
4-- Not a lot to recommend numbers-wise...will carry a price though... doesn't need to improve by that much to have a chance here against these numbnuts.
EDIT: There's your $600 Triple, folks-- 7/8/2 ... 7 went off at decent 7½-1.
CRC-- CALDER RACE 5
Race boils down to two possibilities:
A. Which pacesetter imposes its will: 1 or 4...and whether a possible multi-horse duel cooks them enough for:
B. Whether one of these closers: 2 or 8 will have a good, clean enough trip to run them down.
Dang, scratches leave field down to these four: 1(Even)/3(20-1)/4(3-5)/5(8-1)
MTH-- MONMOUTH PICK THREE RACES 6/7/8
RACE 6: 2(4-1)/1(3-1)/7(6-1) ....(odds of main tossouts: 9-5, 5, 6)
RACE 7: 2(4-1)/3(9/2) ............(odds of main tossouts: 3, 7-2, 6, 6)
RACE 8: 4(3-1)/7(12-1)/2(15-1) W/ savers 1(9-5)/3(10-1)/6(4-1)/5(5-2)
TICKETS--
MAIN ONE:
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
4/7/2
18 combos
BACKUP--
btw we're gonna include #7 in the sixth...should be backup, but its odds will be ok.
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
1/3/6/5
24 combos
IFFF you wish to have more money, in this backup, on the higher-odds entrants, then create:
BACKUP2--
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
3/6
12 combos
Since we didn't pare anyone off first coupla races, the main ticket will need to have substantially more money per combo bet.
EDIT: 6th race--give bonus points to #1, none to #7.
Those of you real afraid of #4, can hedge your Pk3 tickets by keying it on top of exactas here w/ main contenders: 4 over 2/1/7 Do it Dutch style, this way you get a guaranteed return of 3-1
EDIT2: We could've also just included #4 in our Pk3's.... but this way we'd be more likely to cash something in case someone surprises in the following legs.
MTH-- MONMOUTH RACE 6
Looks like a possible pace meltdown-- although that's not a guarantee. Horses' connections can read the DRF...sometimes you get most holding back, allowing one or two to steal away early.
Who we like in order:
2-- Look for a fig jump from troubled debut. As long as it gets a clean trip / not buried inside.
1-- Whichever one of these two that gets the better trip should win here.
7-- May be able to stalk duelers, take over, and hold closers off...esp. if they encounter traffic problems.
5-- Unlikely...Actually a LAY candidate. ALTHOUGH its new connections may have something up their sleeves.
4-- Actually possesses best pace and final numbers...to boot it can rate a bit. BUT it's infected with seconditis & will be severely underlayed. At best it should be used in bottom slots only & NOT under other favored entrants. LAY candidate.
3-- Still more unlikely. Loses rider Cotto to boot.
In conclusion, we would only use 2/1/7 on top. Bet a little extra on 2...maybe on 7 as well if odds are generous...bet even less on 1 if odds wind up very low.
EDIT: #'s 1 & 2 bumped each other at the start, trailed the field early.
MTH-- MONMOUTH RACE 7
Two possible winners-- either 2 holds them all off OR 3 does it from behind.
The other two highly-regarded contenders, 1 & 7 are only lower slots contenders.... and will be severely underlayed if vying for favoritism.
EDIT: #'s 2 & 3 went off @ 5/2 & 7/2. However, at an exchange you got 9/2 & 5. So, if you did a Win Dutch-- at the track your return would be just over Double, while @ exchange you'd almost Triple your starting bet.
EDIT2: #'s 3 & 4 bothered each other at the start, 3 trailed the field early, finished a fairly close fourth..
MTH-- MONMOUTH RACE 8
4-- Might coast all the way on an unchallenged early lead.
7-- Has been saddled all of 2008 with races that don't demonstrate its true capabilities: from initial two off a long layoff to wrong surface / distance to troubled and/or vs bias trips. Great value.
5-- An enigma inside a riddle wrapped in a question-- at times looks like a future star, at times throws up mediocre figs without a seeming excuse. Low ML odds & Bravo aboard guarantee little value. Let's leave this one for underneath slots .... possibly savers on top, but only hooked w/ longshots. NOW....if the public lets this horse get off 4-1 or over, then it's another story.
1-- Capable of taking it all, but as ML fave, let's relegate to underneath slots & on top of longshots....just like 5.
6-- Has been crying for a race with a fast early pace in order to do the most damage. Will offer better value than 5 & 1...although not too much more.
2-- Ditto above, EXCEPT it will sport very, very juicy odds. Deserves inclusion in top slot just on that alone.
3-- Mini-me version of above 2. Among the closers, it will all depend on who gets best trip.
EDIT: #4 stumbled at the start, rushed to the lead, then faded to just lose the show photo.
#6 much the best despite 4 wide trip.
#1 had perfect stalking trip on the fence, which opened up for it to scoot thru... still couldn't get the job done.
MTH-- MONMOUTH PICK THREE RACES 6/7/8
RACE 6: 2(4-1)/1(3-1)/7(6-1) ....(odds of main tossouts: 9-5, 5, 6)
RACE 7: 2(4-1)/3(9/2) ............(odds of main tossouts: 3, 7-2, 6, 6)
RACE 8: 4(3-1)/7(12-1)/2(15-1) W/ savers 1(9-5)/3(10-1)/6(4-1)/5(5-2)
TICKETS--
MAIN ONE:
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
4/7/2
18 combos
BACKUP--
btw we're gonna include #7 in the sixth...should be backup, but its odds will be ok.
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
1/3/6/5
24 combos
IFFF you wish to have more money, in this backup, on the higher-odds entrants, then create:
BACKUP2--
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
3/6
12 combos
Since we didn't pare anyone off first coupla races, the main ticket will need to have substantially more money per combo bet.
EDIT: 6th race-- give bonus points to #1, none to #7.
Those of you real afraid of #4, can hedge your Pk3 tickets by keying it on top of exactas here w/ main contenders: 4 over 2/1/7 Do it Dutch style, this way you get a guaranteed triple return
EDIT2: We could've also just included #4 in our Pk3's.... but this way we'd be more likely to cash something in case someone surprises in the following legs.
DMR-- DELMAR RACE 7
Of the non-debuting horses, we rate them in the following order:
12-- stands out over the rest: has the best fig by 3 lengths... and as well early pace fig by 5 lengths.
8-- barely edges out 7, and at much better odds
7-- then there's a 4 length gap to the next two, who also sport worse early pace numbers.
6-- edges out 5 but lags way farther back early.
5-- be advised, though, that:
NONE of the experienced runners can run to race pars, so.... inspect very minutiously (don't know why the spellchecker is flagging this word) the debuters!!!
EDIT: Annnddd bingo! Firster #4 wins, and coming in second-- #5...the best value of the five entrants with a race under their belt. #12 was done in by the post, being unusually close to early pace and strange, meandering trip... none of the debuters went for the lead, forcing horses more accustomed to closing to take over that chore.
EVD-- EVANGELINE DOWNS RACE 9
6-- Stands out. The rest fight it out for second, they are--- in order:
1-- Poor value, as its entrymate has no chance, although looks second best.
4
7
Tossouts: 1A & 2 The latter is a LAY candidate.
EDIT: Pretty much went as prognosticated. Of note, #2 seemed to be making a threatening move but shuffled back in the stretch....although it's debatable whether it was going to reach the leader. Paid $2.40 Lay price btw.
No choice(mathematically-speaking re the contest) but to stick to #'s 2 & 3... at this juncture we have to disregard likely winner for highest price, no matter how hopelessly outclassed-- the first four finishers just towered over the rest figs-wise.
We went down in flames with the only cap horse here, #10. We actually liked as well the win & place horses, but at this stage of the contest their odds would not do it for us. We did NOT like our choice...but really have no choice this late in the contest: we need cap winners.
#7, the winner, was let go off much higher than its 6-1 Morning Line, but at odds in the teens, would really not help us.
The place horse, #4, was a longshot that we felt had a much better chance than #10... but at odds in the low 20's....
CRC CALDER RACE 1
This race does not have a reliable, committed AND dominant pacesetter...could wind up as a fast multi-horse early duel, the opposite-- tentative, slow early bunchup, or even possibly a stolen, lone lead by anyone.
It does not seemingly offer much single-race Exotics value... maybe DD / Pk3 is doable depending on the contender odds in those later races.
Possible Winners:
6-- Looks like a righteous favorite: is lightly-raced w/ ascending pace & final figs, something you rarely see in low claiming ranks. To boot, it's coming off a not so great trip and gets a rider switch to the Jerry Bailey of Calder. Top Contender. Don't be too enthused, though: it's ML fave & there are other contenders.
8-- Similar profile to above, only to a lesser extent. It's coming off two brutal trips & getting a rider switch to an experienced journeyman. The only chink in its armor is that it hasn't YET posted a decent turn time...this could be a function of bad trips & rides so far-- or a permanent defect. The pp draw is not great BUT it affords it a chance to track & sit just off its main rival. Win contender if some misfortune befalls #6, although note it's listed as ML second fave / possible race co-fave.
2-- Faced a much superior Pace of Race last time, than any of these are used to...possible...maybe at a price.
4-- Could wind up as lone pacesetter in the clear, HOWEVER-- early pace number is inferior. Not likely, but if offered at sufficiently high odds, could merit a Win slot saver in your exotics.
1-- Rail horses with a closing or pressing style always pose a dilemma-- either they get perfect or brutal trip...esp. depending on whether you didn't bet them, LOL.
Last out it posted a decent number in spite of practically losing all chance at the start, then being rushed to the lead. However, it will offer very poor value as ML third fave while being piloted by inferior jock.
The following horse, although NOT a win candidate, is very reliable, and usually posts its usual fig no matter how fast / slow the Pace of Race:
3-- Merits inclusion in the lower slots of your exotics.
Tossouts:
7-- inferior figs and seemingly poor form to boot. Although, any large longshot, as this horse projects to be-- is excusable to insert in bottom of exotics slots. Anyone can clunk up in the money, after the main contenders get done beating each other up... it doesn't hurt to include large longshots in the lower slots for $1.
LAYS:
for those of you with access to Betting Exchanges-- we will look to lay either 1 or 3...preferrably 3 IFFFFF offered @ playable odds.
EDIT: 1 offered @ $2.37....we passed...mainly because it was not our first choice(for throwout), & the more others get scratched, the less the chances of losing(the opposite of when Backing: betting a horse to win). As well post position 1 is very dangerous to Lay, no matter how bad the contender-- esp. one not part of the early pace. In fact, we only like to Lay someone on the rail that we can safely toss out as a projected disadvantaged frontrunner.
And one more reason: the very first race of the day is good to watch in case of any unexpected bias.. weather patterns can greatly influence track maintenance.
Of course, if there was plenty of betting value, we might've been tempted to make an exception-- but this race just screamed PASS.
IN MONEY BETS:
6 could be a candidate, depending on whether race betting develops into multiple horses vying for favorite-- as opposed to one heavy favorite. Win odds and lower pool handles will decide this come post time.
EDIT: 1/5
We were getting ready to suggest Win Dutching 6 & 2... then the odds plunged to the bottom on the fave.
Race unfolded(& ended) pretty much as thought. Don't know what the rider of #1 was doing attending such a multi-horse pace duel.
CRC CALDER RACE 4
Quick, concise analysis-- we're passing this race.
1-- Looks like top contender. MUST get clean trip...not crazy about the jock.
6-- May be able to clear early... a better alternative than getting hung outside its main two early rivals.
4-- May be the best pacesetter...has faced much better while getting outrun late...may also finish up the track.
5-- Looks like a tossout: vulnerable to today's Pace of Race...very underlayed.
Other possibles, should 1 encounter trouble & speedsters get cooked by speed duel:
8 & 3
The riders of #'s 6 & 5 must've been intimidated & overly impressed by the odds of the favorite: #6, who can set the fastest fractions of any here, backed off fairly slow fractions, allowing the fave a clear early lead...while #5 took way back to oblivion. ANNNddddd, for the second time today we notice Segundo Caballero too close to the early pace while on a closer drawn on the rail-- only this time his mount fell back a bit & re-rallied.
CRC CALDER RACE 7
Race looks like a tossup. Here's two you might throw OUT:
4-- which is also a prime LAY candidate.
8-- we're not crazy about...although it's hard to get odds like those on Lopez.
We backed off Laying #4 because #3, the only other pace rival, sometimes does not race on the lead-- exactly what happened today, allowing #4 to set a lone lead and just last at the wire.
CRC CALDER RACE 8
3 looks strongest here: superior turn time & early pace...dropping from higher level.... Pascacio Lopez aboard.
1 looks like a LAY candidate.
The winner, #6, took a ton of money in debut for 50K tag-- 9/5...and again took a ton on the drop here to 12½K-- 5/2...and aired. Our choice, #3, needs to learn to relax: stumbled out of the gate and then rushed up to the lead-- only to have to be snatched up to prevent running up on the heels of the frontrunners...effectively dooming its chances.
DMR DELMAR RACE 4
This is who we like, in order...notice the gaps / groupings(ML in parentheses to ensure odds / value guide our betting here):
#11(6-1)
#4(30-1)
#10(5-2)
_______
#3(3-1)
_______
#2(5-1)
#6(6-1)
_________
#9(20-1)
#1(12-1)
#8(15-1)
You can base your Super ticket on those... for example:
#11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)
with
#3(3-1) / #11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)
with
#2(5-1) / #6(6-1) / #3(3-1) / #11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)
with
#9(20-1) / #1(12-1) / #8(15-1) / #2(5-1) / #6(6-1) / #3(3-1) / #11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)
= 216 Combos.
Get into the habit of writing ML & actual odds next to saddlecloth number... and as the actual odds diverge, you can move up or down a notch or two(or even eliminate) the affected selectees, as appropriate.
That helps you save money / pare down a ticket when necessary, as well as catch / reward higher payoffs.
Only short odds today....pass.
SARATOGA RACE 2
The only thing to report here is that #7 looks like very poor value(2nd ML) & will likely be overwhelmed by a faster than accustomed to Pace of Race. We recommend that you leave it out of your exotics tickets, and those of you with access to an Exchange, should LAY(bet that it will NOT Win) it.
Edit: paid a bit over $2.60... a very decent Lay price.
MONMOUTH RACE 3
Win Candidates:
Race looks like a 'possible' race meltdown, favoring a closer.
Who we like, in order:
3-- Will likely lay closest to frontrunners, and be able to take over late.
1-- This pacesetter has the early numbers to wire the field. It is NOT a likely winner though, in light of negative class drops. HOWEVER, one must respect a possible loose frontrunner at Monmouth...to boot at a price. You just never know-- the jocks on the other frontrunners may decide to allow it to scamper alone, figuring it is physically compromised. This will be a win or finish last type, so what you can do is hook it up in Exotics exclusively in the win slot.
2-- the best pacesetter...improving and rateable...again, speed always dangerous at this oval.
4-- backup closer, in case #3 suffers some trip misfortune(bottled up inside for one) or physical ailment(headache? lol) today. We don't like it that much, as it seems to be infected with seconditis, but should be played because the early pace will likely collapse.
5-- second best pacesetter. Yes, it's a bit down the contender line, but a case can be made for a win: firstly-- it's improving, second-- there's a good chance #1 won't run a lick today, and should #2 suffer some start mishap(look at the head-on start video-- these animals often break like bumper cars), it would leave it on a lone lead.
Eliminations:
#6 is a false favorite-- will have to run faster early than accustomed to AND will not get the luxury of an open lead like in the past. We recommend you toss it. Lay it in Exchanges.
So, let odds be your guide in how you bet this race. For example, make exacta tickets thusly:
1 over 3 & 4. IF it wins, it will have run the other speedsters into the ground, so toss them.
3 over 4, 2 & 5.
4 over 3, 2 & 5.
5 over 3 & 4.
You can play a little more on the lesser-paying combos AND/OR less on tickets including 1 & 5, as those are more saver / backup AND will be longshots anyhow.
Edit: Exacta paid $47+
Lay paid a whopping $3. If you parlayed the first two lays, you've almost doubled your money
MONMOUTH RACE 5
# 3 offers the best value here....#1 can be totally tossed out.
Who can finish second? Who knows-- #5 is wildly inconsistent not only in final times, but in the type of early pace it sets...world-class one race, very slow the next. #6 will be facing a much tougher pace today AND W/O being clear on the lead.
Edit: #1 late scratched. Too bad, we were thinking of a Place bet, with the Lay Parlay money, on the winner #3.
BTW we rarely bet Win: we stick to extremes-- either Show / Place or Exactas / Tris / Supers.
MONMOUTH RACE 8
Not a lot of value here.
#5-- can wire these... is it ready off such a long layoff?
#6-- has back numbers to win here...however, seems to be infected with seconditis... BUT attracts Lezcano aboard...hhmmmm let odds be your final judge.
#3-- can win or finish last. Seems to be going down the class ladder...Lezcano jumps off.
#7-- has a chance, esp. because NONE of the above can be blindly relied upon.
The next one has a chance at the bottom slots ONLY:
#4
The others are hopelessly outclassed:
#'s 2 & 1.
Blech.... odds too low on everyone here.....
ELLIS PARK RACE 6
Nothing too detailed to report, except that #9(3rd ML) is a very poor value: sports lousy figs and that running style is a kiss of death at this track / distance. LAY it.
It MIGHT clunk up in the money, but NOT Win: there are just too many others that can beat it:
#'s 10, 2 & 3 are itching to make up for tardy starts last out & sport various changes like jock, blinkers, lasix... & don't forget to calculate the possibilty of a marked improvement in second lifetime race for two of them.
As well, all three debuters look live in here, to boot, only one horse in here has topped the race pars for pace or final time: #10
Edit: NO money to be made here...to boot a large field to deal with. We were offered just under $2.32 payoff on #9 and decided it was too measly. However, if YOU took it and kept the LAY PARLAY going, you're now @ 230%. Once you hit 300%, pull back original unit + 1 unit profit, and restart a new progression.
ELLIS PARK RACE 9
We won't be betting this race, but: #8 offers very, very good value...while #3 is the totally underlayed opposite.
Edit: Looks like we were on the same wavelength as everyone else, as our choice became very undervalued-- drifting between 8/5 & 2-1, and the projected undervaluee went off at a smidgen under 3-1...and actually won.
ARLINGTON PARK RACE 7
We're going to be LAYING #8(co-second ML)... it looks like it won't be able to handle today's expected Pace of Race.
Edit: wound up being favored... don't know why: Bill Mott doesn't use cobra venom(squeaky clean trainer) & Rene Douglas(the Jerry Bailey of Chicago tracks) wouldn't've been allowed to carry the horse during the race anyhow. Got a sliver under $2.60 payoff.
SACRAMENTO FAIR RACE 4
Heavy ML fave #1 obviously looks strong... although it will likely be pushed by the live debuter... no money to be made, and no certainty either. However, since four of these area closely bunched odds-wise behind the fave, we may be able to find playable LAY odds:
we will look first at #5, then at #3.
Edit: First choice 5 offered @ $2.29 - 2.32, second choice 3 offered @ $2.10....guess which we took?
If YOU've been matching our LAY Parlay, you should be @ 294%, almost triple your starting unit.340%...time to pull back & re-start. We passed once, are @ 269%.296%
We recommend you pull back now, since only one more betting race remains today, we'll post amounts under that race.
DEL MAR RACE 7
Win Candidates:
#5-- the one to beat...projects to be alone on the lead AND to boot is improving both pace and final time from race to race. The fly in the ointment is already-beaten #8, who may go on a kamikaze dueling mission with blinkers added. If so:
#7-- can take it all...what with getting an extra ½ furlong + a possible huge fig leap in its second career race. SCR
These next are more saver / bottom exotics slots candidates. Their win chance depends on the top pacesetter getting cooked AND the top closer suffering a bad trip.
Let's move both the following to the scratchee's slot... as they're both double-digit odds.
#'s 6 & 3 The former should be offered at generous odds... for that reason alone it could even deserve a Win Slot Saver bet.
And let's relegate the following two(2 & 9) to bottom of exotics slots ONLY....AND not together or directly underneath #5(in other words, ONLY one fave/co-fave per ticket.
A further notch below those is:
#2-- MUST break cleanly AND get a clear trip(not get bottled up inside or forced to loop everyone)... will likely be UNDERLAYED.
An even further notch below above BUT offering great value:
#9-- is improving numbers-wise, but needs a fast, contested pace to have the best chance.
If you're playing Super / Tri, #8 has a small chance at the third / fourth / fifth slots. We will look to LAY it.
Let's Lay 8, and use that projected win money for exotics-- and leave #8 "completely out" of all exotics... or only underneath two longshots. BTW that price will likely be $2.45
EDIT 1: We recommend you pull back the same amount as us: 215%, and bet the remaining 69%...44% for us. You can now bank TWO units profit, as well as the original starting unit...leaving a bet for this race of 40% Unit.
We have a goal of a minimum 125% daily profit. So, we will bank that & original unit....then bet the remaining 71% Unit.
EDIT 2: WOW.... almost everyone went for the lead-- setting a fast 21.8 first fraction-- #'s 2 & 6 were up with the expected 5 & 8...as well, #'s 3 & 4 were stalking right on the heels of those first four battlers. What the??? The jocks must've found Valenzuela's secret cocaine stash just before the race...
And as for #8-- looks like the blinkers allowed it to relax early...instead of the expected......
We actually got shut out of a bet here--- the last two minutes to post nothing was offered on #8.
We'll next take a peek at a couple of Penn National & Evangeline Downs races...
Edit: found nothing there... will get a head start on tomorrow.
Dodged a bullet here.
We selected #'s 4 & 10... gave a long look at 3 & 8. 9, the eventual place horse, was our least-liked longshot... part of uncoupled Gallagher entry.
The jock on #4 is what eventually broke the longshot quandary for us-- but his riding tactics leave us perplexed: we were expecting a closeup, rating ride, not a duel for the lead...the wrong tactic to employ on that surface and distance.
The Pacific Classic is not normally conducive to longshots-- esp. this year's version... another $100 saved.
#3 has a very good chance.... over cap odds to boot... go baby go!
We had #2. Would've won if commited to threading horses.... but not with that drop back to last and loop the field 10-wide despite breaking from pp2 ride. To boot it blew the turn-- if at least it had leaned inwards and cut the corner it probably would've still won in spite of the trip... but noooo.... it had to give everyone else a real wide berth.
What it looked like was that mid-backstretch the jock thought about looking for some hole thru the pack, then just before the turn changed mind and very sharply / needlessly swung out(instead of just easing wide-- there was no one else to outside or behind to contend with) only it did this too close to the turn and that momentum took the horse back and sideways as the pack kept rounding the opposite way.
We needed a good jock here.
Okie, dokie. We have 5 events, thus we need 5 betting units...hook them each / all with your base of Soccer ARG-NIG Over 2½ +115 thusly:
Parlay 1 (2-teamer) 1½ Units: Water Polo Men-- USA over Serbia +248
Parlay 2 (3-teamer) 1½ Units: Volleyball Men-- USA over Russia +134 AND Water Polo Men-- HUN over MNE -163
Parlay 3 (3-teamer) 2 Units: Beach Volleyball-- US pair over Brazil pair -223 AND Water Polo Men-- HUN over MNE -163
Now, for those of you not allowed to parlay these...or just wishing better payoffs by manually parlaying-- here's the order of the events(DOUBLE-CHECK TO ENSURE WE OR THE NBC WEBSITE HAVEN'T ERRED OR THE SCHEDULES GET ALTERED):
First: Beach Volleyball followed by Volleyball USA-Russia...might get shut out if attempting to hook sequentially
Second: both Water Polo matches-- they're back to back, but like above pair, would also be dicey to handle them individually
Third: Soccer
So, you could do the following:
Of your 5 betting units, bet:
A. 1-1/3 on Beach Volleyball
B. 1 on the regular Volleyball
After those events are in, add together your payoffs to the unused 2-2/3 units.
Bet 31% of everything on HUNGARY Water Polo and...
19% on USA Water Polo
After that, add your payoffs to the unused 50%, pull back your betting units + enough to guarantee a profit for the Olympics(this is the third session we bet together these Olympics-- you have profit from the first and loss from the second) and bet the remaining on the Soccer final.
If that math does not work out, then we'll assess our options before the Soccer match. We'll either bet extra on it and/or the riskier Over 3½ goals.
Those of you who like Round Robins can do this:
Toss out the Beach Volleyball, and with 3 Units do Two-Team Round Robins using the regular Volleyball & the two Water Polo Matches. Afterwards, if say only two out three won-- thus cashing once only-- add your payoff to a fourth unit and ride all that on the Soccer. But if you cash all three, then follow above parlay step that guarantees profit.
UPDATE
Now that the first two events have won, it's time to protect our parlays. This MUST be done, irregardless of how UNLIKELY an opposing side's chances, in order to GUARANTEE profit no matter who wins the latter events.
Let's bet TWO units on MNE +175 in the first Water Polo match.
UPDATE 2
Okie dokie, we're killing them today Hannibal Lecter style. BTW The way the manner in which the Hungary match transpired early made us very glad for having reverse-hedged it. Here are suggestions for your next wagers depending on which of the three methods you're using:
1. Original fixed parlays-- You're waiting on a possible payoff of almost 33½ units. Subtracting the original 5 + 2 used to reverse hedge leaves just under 26½ net that must be protected-- we'll post some ideas on that shortly.
2. Manual sequence-- You should now have just over 14-3/4 units - original 5 = 9-3/4 net. Seems skimpy in comparison to the other methods, no? It always will "when zero games lose". In a similar manner, folks who bet those smaller parlays make a lot less than with one giant parlay instead--they would be sitting on payoff of over 192½ units. But it's just unrealistic to expect such a near-perfect total day's outcome.
You need to be content in the knowledge that you always had money in pocket to continue betting "even if both concurrent(or almost) games lost each of the two times".
A riskier alternative could've been to assume that at worst one game would fall but you would cash the other one-- thus risking the entire cash in hand each time. BUT.... you'd have to be prepared to come up with:
A. another 5 units as many as two additional times in worst case scenario.
B. 2-3 units in case of 1-1 result of first series... if only the -223 game won. BTW replacing those partial units would be mandatory in order to avoid having subsequent wins w/ lower bet amounts. Otherwise, the next series also ends up 1-1 and you may not even have a chance to break even in the end.
The safe way you bet just gave you many additional options re guaranteed profits. At the end of the very first series you stood with almost 9 total units. You could do many things then: like pulling back original 5 units + say 1 of guaranteed profit... then gone for the jugular with the remaining 3 units on the remaining 3 games... 'with their money only'.
3. Round Robins-- You should now be sitting with over 17½ units, over 12½ net. Now here we could've included the soccer as well in our original advice, but we didn't want to overcomplicate things. You did 3 two-teamers-- you could've added the soccer to each and wound up with 3 three-teamers.
We'll post some ideas later on how to get additional, almost guaranteed profit from the soccer final for those on steps 2 & 3. And for those on step 1 some ways to not only guarantee profit but maybe even collect on both sides-- both the main bet and the hedge.
Stay tuned.
UPDATE 3
Some ideas for those in steps 2 & 3:
A. Risk only a little / bank most of your profit while still taking a shot at another nice payoff:
MLB Baseball Milwaukee(vs Pit) -265 parlayed to MLB Baseball TB-Chi UNDER 9½ -110 Parlayed to Soccer Over 4½ +615 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever
Each unit bet should pay over 26 units.
B. Safely win an adequate amount of money with a larger bet:
Soccer Over 2½ +115 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever
Each unit bet should pay just over 3 units.
Now for those in step 1:
A little bit of a dilemma-- ideal would be a way to have a decent chance of middling the hedge. The problem is that we foresee a high-scoring game and/or one side dominating the other. If someone offered an Even Goal Amount Prop, it would suit us to a tee: covering 0-0, 1-1, 2-0(only leaving 1-0 exposed) & just under half the possible high goal outcomes.
So, let's try for two things--
1. try to make the hedging amount elsewhere(thus a free bet). So let's FIRST do a two-team parlay w/ 1/3 of your planned hedge bet tonight: MLB Baseball Milwaukee(vs Pit) -265 parlayed to MLB Baseball TB-Chi UNDER 9½ -110
2. at least a slim chance of middling AND collecting big payoff in the process-- in return for having to hedge out such a large portion of the expected profit. Now take your payoff, add it to the unused 2/3 and
Hook Soccer UNDER 3½ -327 to: Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever
Example: say you wish to use, from your expected 26½ NET Unit Win, @10½ units to hedge, leaving a potential NET of 16 won at the least(assuming soccer game goes over).
Use 3½ on the Baseball Parlay, which should return just under 8-3/4 Units + unused 7 = just over 15-2/3 in hand.
These you can parlay thusly: Soccer UNDER 4½ -930 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever...
The payoff should be @25 Units, which has a chance to w/ middle the other potential payoff 33½ Units.
Your total initial + first & second hedge investments will be 5 + 2 + 10½ = 17½ Units....subtract this from whatever you collect for your NET, which should be either of these 3 amounts:
A. ONLY main bet hits: 16 Units
B. ONLY hedge hits: 7-8 Units
C. MIDDLE: 41 Units
3. Now, what if the baseball parlay loses, you ask? Well, you had 7 unused units--
Parlay them either of these two ways:
A. Soccer UNDER 3½ -131 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever... Payoff will be 17½ Units...Perfect Breakeven IF you DON"T middle main bet. Profit of 17½ if you do.
B. Soccer UNDER 2 +105 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever... Payoff will be @20½ units, for a NET of 3. IFF you push first leg here, payoff is 10 units, for total loss of @7 Units(the original + first hedge amount).
However, keep in mind these results are after losing main bet, having had multiple opps to cash big... can't always expect to cash large in spite of a loss can you? Well, we would still have one last ace in the hole(assuming a disaster push in that last example: a baseball play(s) for that night, to bring us into the black anyway!).
What's that, Virginia? What if US women & men lose? Are you kidding me? So what if they do? They can only hurt us IF our main bet loses. Another way to look at it-- US odds are prohibitively low, so for the Hedge part, they allow us to collect fairly substantially over their odds by winning. If they lose, we were going to lose something anyway....in effect getting a return from them much better than when betting them exclusively / singly.
UPDATE 4
Let's do 5 Units Halftime Nigeria ML +450 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370
UPDATE 5
We'll find something to hook the last reverse to, after Basketball, to get into the black. Look for that in a new thread. As well we're planning to drop the bankroll on USA Women's Basketball final. Stay tuned.
Re the Beach Volleyball Women's Final....can't believe that Chinese team was seeded first-- esp. w/ their relative lack of experience. The US pair seeded second... defending World Champions who hadn't even lost a set ever?? Gimme a break.
If you have access to In-Running wagering, take USA women in softball(vs Japan).
Some soccer bets coming shortly...
Okie, dokie...as Hannibal Lecter uttered before murdering his victim(in our case the book)....Take FOUR betting units and make three equal bets(so 1-1/3 units each):
Parlay 1:
USA-Brazil OVER 2½ +120 WITH Argentina-Brazil OVER 2½ +115
Parlay 2:
Brazil(Women) ML +107 WITH Argentina-Brazil OVER 2½ +115
Parlay 3:
USA-Brazil OVER 3½ +284 WITH Argentina-Brazil OVER 2½ +115
Be ready with an extra 4-8 betting units during BOTH in-game / Halftime of the women's final(find yourself a book that offers either / both) AND right afterward: we're going to protect the bets & guarantee profit.
Once in a while a loss not only occurs, but it transpires in such a way as to not allow some kind of protection or reverse... that occurred twice today.
In the softball game, a bet on the US after game start was the only way to get decent odds. Alas, they pretty much gave the game away-- they never even took the lead so that we could then scalp the outcome(bet both sides for guaranteed profit)...Actually, those of you that had In-Running betting may have had a fleeting chance to do so when the US was at bat with the bases loaded. But lots of credit has to go to the Japanese & their pitcher UENO(28 innings / 400+ pitches in two days, unbelievable)... they seemed like the team of destiny the last three games.
The soccer game also transpired in a manner that did not allow any way to protect the original bet: just one goal anytime before halftime would've given us some options.
We'll have some more wagers for today and tomorrow-- stay tuned for a subsequent post.
PS Are we the only ones that regard Bob Neumeier as a candidate for the Biggest Horse's Arse in Sports Broadcasting(he's been doing the Track & Field interviews... and does the KY Derby annually)?
#'s 5 & 10(third and fourth place finishers were our choices.
We got shut out(Olympics) though-- just as well.
One of our clients is running here, so we'll post some handicapping thoughts on this race...which seems fairly susceptible to a longshot winner:
PP# (ML odds)
1: Scratched
2 (12-1) Doesn't compete well on numbers...UNLESS if you factor in lengths lost due to traffic issues in its debut-- speaking off-- second career race makes it eligible for a big fig jump. As well it could be the recipient of a perfect rail trip... or the total opposite. This horse could win as likely as finish up the track. Nevertheless, longshot odds demand inclusion. Contender.
3 (4-1) Offers very poor value & will draw too much attention with Gomez aboard. Yes, anyone attracting Gomez aboard for the first time merits a long look; but according to our numbers, it rates poorly on both pace & final time. Even if say, Gomez attempted a change to a closing style, the final number would have to improve by many lengths to contend here. Toss-Out. (PS now, if the ML odds situation was reversed, it would merit a bet on the hope of a turnaround w/ Gomez.)
4 (5/2) Speedster merits respect-- esp. w/ Bejarano aboard for the first time. However, #8 may make it run faster early than it likes. Otherwise, should #8 not get to the front, it could wind up controlling the pace. Coin toss either way...won't offer value. Marginal Contender. IF you must use, relegate to bottom slots of exotics and don't combine with other short odds candidates.
5 (12-1) So-so number two back. However, should get a ground-saving stalking trip...could inherit the lead and hold off the come from behinders. And longshot odds definitely make it a... Contender.
6 (10-1) Very, very, very live longshot. Has faced much tougher AND actually has the best numbers if you extract internal sprint from its route races. As well its last sprint long ago yields a number better than any in here. Prime Contender.
7 (9/5) Has a lot to recommend it. Because of likely favorite status it becomes one of those cases where you include it in all your tickets while hoping it bounces or some trip calamity befalls it.. Prime Contender.
8 (10-1) We're not too crazy about this horse, BUT it has enough speed to clear the field; and at those odds we wouldn't want to chance not having a loose on the lead longshot. Contender...but it's a Win or finish up the track type.
9 (20-1) This speedster seems very up against it-- its early numbers aren't great, it's prone to tardy departures, it's used to being on a lone lead...Today could find itself hung out to the parking lot battling a much faster pace. Its only chance would be rating ability-- but it hasn't demonstrated that ability yet. Toss-Out...although we will never, ever chide you for betting the longest shot on the board.
If you're playing exotics, #7 is the only fave we would play on top...although not on top of any other fave. Of the other two faves, we would completely eliminate #3(in fact, if you have access to a betting exchange, LAY it)... and #4 we would toss from top slot + we would only use underneath longshots.
Who we like in order:
6/7/ then
5/2/ then
8/4
We don't like 3 & 9...would only use in third or fourth slots of exotics, and then ONLY underneath longshots.
Cash a big one.
#3's disaster was bad for others as well in here-- firstly, it knocked #2 to dead last...secondly, it allowed #4 to control the pace & finish in the money. That's horseracing for you.
BTW re #4-- it hovered @ 10-1 odds for quite a while-- we almost, almost posted an upgrade to prime status along with 6 & 7.
Add together THREE of your usual betting units and bet TWO parlays:
56% on Argentina-Brazil OVER 2 -120
the remaining 44% Argentina Money Line +157
EACH hooked to Will the 200m World Record be Broken? YES-- +180
IF you're NOT allowed to parlay, then just take TWO units and:
38% on Argentina-Brazil OVER 3½ +358
62% Will the 200m World Record be Broken? YES-- +180
IF you don't have access to those type of bets AND / OR you need a safe / drop the bankroll / bet the mortgage type bet:
then just do a straight Argentina-Brazil OVER 2 -120
Some thoughts midstream:
We based our recommendations 'widespread' offerings seen on the web.
The ideal lines would / should have been: Over 2½ & Over 3 in the above examples... we didn't see those offered. Heck, it was hard enough to find any lines offered at all.
2½ would've been ideal in order to bump the payoff into the plus side(100+). And 3 obviously is a lot safer than 3½.
And getting a higher than EVEN payoff is key for us-- we rarely accept a lower payoff unless we really like a side.
As far as the game itself--if you watched it-- the total goals should've been a lot higher-- between an unjustly disallowed goal, to a crossbar hit, to a few open misses(vs solitary goalkeeper). All that in spite of both team's defensive game plans....
BTW It's very important to perform parlays manually as much as possible. Of course, a lot of that depends on whether your book is prone to slow grading and/or unexplained early bet closing times.
The benefits are:
1. Almost all the time the payoff is larger.
2. After initial win, one can pull back and guarantee some profit.
Of course, one MUST be disciplined, in case of initial loss, to manually continue the progression with the required amounts.
PS Always check during a game we tout-- we are always looking to dutch or hedge with In Game or Halftime bets.
Re 200 Metre FInal:
Don't be surprised if Bolt breaks 19 second barrier-- he's that freakingly good.
Told you so. He needs to take up 400m though-- not for serious racing, but that will seriously focus his training & perfect his 200M performance.
We have another selection for tomorrow, stay tuned.
#'s 10 & 5 were our choices today-- the former: dominant speedster who projected to be alone at the second call...the latter: a closer / grinder who figured to benefit from a multi-horse speed duel.
But, as often occurs in horseracing-- the best laid plans of mice and men.... the connections of #10 chose to have it close instead-- and it sulked itself right out of the race. Meantime, the remaining speedsters set a considerably slower pace of 22.5 & 46...allowing two of them to finish in front.
Played #2 in one entry, & #7(the eventual place horse) in another.
First three finishers were our actual choices.
The longest shot of them, & actual show finisher, was not offered at such high odds pre-race...and as well we liked the other two better.
So we decided to win dutch the 10 & 11(the winner was offered at much higher odds then)... but we got distracted elsewhere and got shut out... would've cleared @ $175..... ehhhh.....
Porto Marmay was our hapless choice...no value today.
Totally did NOT miss this race-- judging by the mutuels, we wish we had.
Totally missed this race-- judging by the mutuels, good thing we did.
Nothing of great value offered...This is a race we would've normally passed during the first half of the contest. But, since we've already banked the necessary amount of skipped races, we may as well play something...
we took #7, hoping for a wire job...pretty lame choice @ pretty lame odds.
Best Pal Stakes is a wide open race here-- the longshot winner will go a long way in deciding this contest.
Only question is which of the handful of probable cap horses does one back?
Stupid DelMar saved us $100-- w/ minutes remaining until post would not allow a contest bet.
As well nice to see a DQ put up the favorite-- when we don't win.
A domani ragazzi.
We took #'s 1 & 3.... nice to see faves come in when our choices don't.....
Again we erred today, missing the contest race-- good thing too: we liked #2(finished second)-- we save another $100... and bank the necessary 11 unplayed races.
We now can play every single race left w/o running into the max. allowed races limit.
We will be very mindful of needing to cash in when longshots are not an alternative-- in other words:
the next longshot winner we hit, will likely also have been picked by others ahead of us...so in that interim, we need to pass as many of them as possible.
And we will need to repeat that cycle afterward-- wash / rinse / repeat in order to get to the top of the leaderboard.
See you tomorrow.
We actually missed this-- were too involved with our bread and butter handicapping.
Everything's good though-- no longshot won / we saved $100. Speaking of, we now have 10 unplayed races banked, out of a total of 11 needed.
For all intents and purposes that fulfillment's met & we can play every single remaining race... it will be pretty hard during the contest's next 23 races to not find one single 'safe & undamaging' race to skip: with neither a viable longshot or standout in the money candidate..
This will should put us in good stead for the contest stretch run-- notice how almost all the top contestants have played almost every race-- eventually(within the next 10-12 contest days or so)-- most will not be allowed to play anymore races, while we get to still play @ another extra 10-12.
To boot, as we've already stated, we're not impressed with just about anyone significantly in the plus column:
let's see, there's almost 7 thousand contestants...let's say @ the current top 10%... @ those $700 or better-- the winner will likely NOT come from that group. Why?
There's been maybe ONE true longshot winner fitting 'correct contest strategy'... meaning that of all CAP(or near) mutuel winners, only one was at a high enough level within a few minutes of post time.
ALL the other high-priced winners were in the high teens at best at cutoff time of 4 min. to post. That is the absolute threshold one should adhere to in order to ensure not getting shut out. Yes, at times one is able to select even as the horses are loading in the gate-- but not always.
What all that means is that the current leaders have been playing fairly low-priced selections-- & subsequently lucked out with the odds drifting significantly up by the time the races in question went off.
So, we can continue playing our limit selections-- knowing that if the leaders didn't shoot for those high prices in the beginning-- they certainly won't later on as they try to jockey for position amongst those closely-ranked to them. This will be their downfall-- when the next couple of longshots come in, they won't be anywhere near the top-- and may already be at or near the maximum allowed races limit.
See you later....
Less than 3 lengths separated top 6 finishers. Either of the first two favorites could've won this race with a better start and/or trip-- although we take nothing away from the winner accomplishing this in only its second career start.
And actually, the winner was among our contender group-- along with #10, who offered much better odds(who finished a non-threatening seventh w/o any trip eventualities). Our hero fit two ways:
as the contender offered at the best odds & as the longshot with the best chance(the only longhshot with any chance here btw).
Our hero didn't seem to fire late-- it didn't seem to relax early as in previous races-- it seemed to run faster than normal early so as not to lose touch.
See you mañana.
Finally something....although price kinda sucks.
Among our handful of contenders, 2 & 4 were offered at the highest odds-- although in the teens is really nothing for this contest. Normally we would pass at such relatively meager value...
HOWEVER:
1. we've already banked close to the needed 11 unplayed races-- the point at which one can play 'every single remaining contest race'.
2. we do need to start catching up-- and actually, we may be spinning our wheels versus those leaders w/ the same selection today.
The rationale for both horses was similar:
#2-- unlimited potential fig jump as a new 3yo. We played this one in our main entry.
#4-- unlimited potential as well, but for different reasons-- a combination of layoffs, trip trouble & different distances / surfaces had not afforded this horse a chance to demonstrate its top potential 'at this race distance & conditions'. Of course, the potential was larger for the former, so this one went to our for fun entry...finishing a closeup third.
BTW in case you wonder how the speed held up so well-- the early pace was glacial:
a. why #10 held on like that until the end.
b. Baze rode a real heady(or lucky) race-- up on the slow duel.
We will now be switching to what we could call 'fulfilled skipped races strategy' for the remainder of the contest:
we will play all races(we just have one two more to skip as a requirement). While we will still look to play longshots-- particularly @ cap level-- when none are offered(or those offered have zero chance), we will then select the main contender @ the largest odds offered @ posttime; the only exception to the latter may be if something is fairly sure to hit the board(irrespective of odds): we may take the sure money in that case.
The logic goes like this:
since one has to skip 11 races in this contest-- the most sensible & productive way of accomplishing this is by 'early on' not playing races that don't offer a chance at a high mutuel and/or at least some guaranteed money(as in a superior runner laying over the field). However, once those races are banked-- allowing one to play ALL remaining races, then the onus becomes on cashing(esp. if behind at this point) / one can & should lower odds threshold. When no high mutuel is available / offered, something cashed is better than nothing.
All odds very, very low. Nothing to do.
So far, we have banked 8 unplayed of 11 needed days.
Of more concern is the sizable lead the top handful or so have managed to attain: when we hit a longshot, we need for them to not hit it as well.
BUTTTT............the biggest challenge, re the contest though, is the parimutuel dump-- which to boot can be totally unpredictable:
The odds @ 1-2 minutes to post(and not always can one bet so close to post anyhow-- when races delay, the contest organizers usually set back the entry deadline time to reflect the adjusted posttime...but not always) and the final odds one can see on race charts can be so widespread it's not funny.
Some time ago, one horse we passed over with odds in the low-mid teens almost doubled to 25, while other longshots took more money & went down enough to leave said horse as the only longshot(double most their odds). If one missed the race and just looked at the chart later, one would be so sure of having had that if on time(along with many contestants-- who you'd think would be attracted to the only longshot in the field)....
This happened again a couple of days ago, although not to our selection:
we had been monitoring the 5 largest ML entrants, with the intention of playing whichever was the significantly largest longshot--
we were on a cap horse, the other 4 offered little value...all in the teens. Well, one of them went to 25 after the bell and just held on in the race to grab the win.
BTW our cap horse was only @25 when we selected it, after having yoyoed up & down between 17-21 most of the time, hoping it would drift up instead. We were rewarded by seing 30 as they loaded, eventually passing cap limit after the bell.
In fact, @ 4-5 min. to post all the odds were so low that we almost took off, but decided to stick around.
Our complaint is not that we would've had that winner, but how it rewarded unsound strategy:
Now we currently have contest leaders who, barring those who selected early / were not around @ posttime, got there with the most unsound, clueless strategy imaginable-- they have two longshot winners that they selected when they were in the low-mid teens...vs other higher-odds entrants already present!
The only possible excuse to select such a beast is when having singled it out as the towering best-- although that would make said person the Einstein of handicapping with a license to print money.
Now, we don't begrudge anyone success... but come on....
It's like handicapping doesn't count & wagering odds are not often what they seem-- one needs a Ouija board just to guess what they will be.
Pre-bet 7 & 10.
Contest interface wouldn't cancel either bet(odds too low) close to post time.
We just wanted refunds, had no alternate worthwhile, value choice(s).
There were only 3 cap horses in here: 1, 2, 3 and they stood NO chance 'whatsoever'.
Ok, we're out...and discontinuing this. We'll see you at Belmont's Fall edition. Next year, we'll enter Saratoga Showdown with an adequate number of entries.
Yesterday,
All my longshots seemed so far away,
Now it looks as though they're here to stay,
Oh, I don't believe in yesterday.
Suddenly,
I'm not half the man I used to be,
There's a favorite hanging over me,
Oh, yesterday came suddenly.
Why'd she
take the chalk I don't know, she wouldn't say.
I said,
No, no just because you won yesterday!
And she said,
Bets were such an easy game to play,
Now I need a place to hide away,
Oh, YES I believe in yesterday.
Why'd she
take the chalk I don't know, she wouldn't say.
I said,
No, no just because you won yesterday!
Yes she said,
Bets were such an easy game to play,
Now I need a place to hide away,
Oh, YES I believe in yesterday.
Mm-mm-mm-mm-mm-mm-mm.
WE START THE DAY WITH 9% SURVIVING CONTEST ENTRIES
Yesterday we rode in the jump race specifically to avoid possible bloodbaths in the races popular with contestants.
It didn't quite work to our advantage...some popular choices hung on for third. That bad luck was due to a coupla things:
1. many races scratched down too much.
2. three / four races had considerable bumping-- esp. among foes to the popular choices.
So, as long as all that does not excessively repeat, we should see plenty of eliminations today. And yes, like yesterday, our selection will be a favorite not particularly favored by the public.
Today's card contains plenty of:
A. suspicious droppers
B. favored horses with plenty of unanswered questions.
And even the one race with a small field holds no gimme, and is a rather contentious, with all but one entrant bunched closely in the Morning Line. We give everyone a shot, even the ML longshot is not out of it by any means-- we've pegged it as the Bud Longshot actually.
Although more importantly, each & all horses in there carry question marks. It's a chaos race where 5 of 6 entrants should each curry favor with contestants-- ergo there will be some eliminations, no matter the outcome. It's entirely very possible that the longshot finishes in the money, and one or two of the more favored ones finish out.
We'll write a little more about this race later on.
TO HECK WITH MEANINGLESS & USELESS WEATHER FORECASTS
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ON SOME RACES--
RACE 2--
This race has two entrants that will attract considerable contestant interest-- it makes no sense to bet here for that and to boot, other lingering handicapping doubts re each co-favored horse.
First-- assuming one has several strong candidates throughout the card-- one should not ride on overly popular horses. Even if the selection is solid, anything can happen. There are two co-faves here sitting in adjacent stalls, their riders likely fixating on each other-- what if they tangle up?
Losing favorites are the most efficient executioners / firing squads in eliminator contests-- so as much as 'sensibly possible' we should strive to remove ourselves beforehand from a path where bullets earmarked for the crowds may possibly pass.
Second-- before even getting into handicapping merit-- if both horses are about equal or one cannot be eliminated-- a bet would carry too much risk / become a coin toss. If one by misfortune picks the one that loses to the other, then our hero can ONLY let ONE other from among "among the rest of the field" defeat it.
Third-- if to boot the horse(s) have serious handicapping question marks...
#3-- There's just an air of dubiousness for this ML favorite, seemingly best in this race:
Running at this class level-- esp. following that layoff-- just doesn't exude confidence: we'd have preferred to see an initial crack at Allowance level. As well the mediocre work tab w/ only short works adds little comfort. The public today will likely cherry pick its best couple of numbers before its last race, and be impressed by top jock aboard & Trainer Levine's almost 30% clip rate both overall for the year & in various relevant stats.
We however, are mindful of his win percentage nosediving from the fiery 40's during Belmont to very pedestrian 2 for 13 after officials had every single horse in his barn surprise tested just prior to Saratoga meet starting.
Now, we're not necessarily right-- but we're also not going to join the chalk herds to find out.
#4--
Will either be co-favorite or close second to above.
Again, we look at this horse in a somewhat similar light: from its class drop to the ice cold stats of its very able trainer and jock: 0 for 7 & 2 for 42 respectively. Actually, according to our numbers, there may not be anything wrong with this horse: We have every single one of the first five races, across different tracks and surface types / conditions s mind you, ascending each from the previous one-- until the last race's slight dip, which could possibly be due to having to run much faster early yet being so much farther back than accustomed to...+ maybe not being unduly pushed late in a hopeless cause.
We would much rather(if we had to that is) take this horse over the other one-- but our safety cushion significantly deflates if the other one is ready to romp.
RACE 3--
Even Money ML favorite should attract the most entries. It could either romp or finish out-- here's why:
early pace numbers are way inferior to others in here. Now, is that because this horse is a closer-- who impressively chased a loose frontrunner? Then it romps...or maybe not-- it's going to have a giant bullseye mentally painted on it by all the other riders-- who will be doing their utmost to pin it in, block it, etc.
If it happens to not be a closer, then today's fast pace may do it in.
If we HAD to bet this race, we'd rather take #4, who may shake loose early-- or #7, who is used to facing very fast early paces.
RACE 5--
We like the standout horse here-- or conversely-- we dislike it the LEAST of all other favorites today. A big plus is that it shouldn't attract that many contest votes because of the larger field, sizable number of debuters, dipping figure, etc. This may well be our contest horse; although we will continue searching for something better, esp. after scratches.
Yes, we would've liked to see a fig # jump, as well as no return to claiming ranks. However, the newly-demonstrated closing ability is a huge plus...in its previous races it just looked like a determined frontrunner who would at all costs not allow anyone to pop a head in front early.
Now we don't have to fret about any speed-crazy debuter-- it should be able to sit right behind and then pounce. As a bonus, if no one really wants the lead-- its previous early pace fig is open lengths faster than any of the experienced runners.
RACE 6--
Some nice horses in here-- and couple of question marks as well. The size of this field makes this race more appropriate for betting than for contest purposes.
edit: Field down to 9: 1,3,4,5 main contenders...good luck choosing from between them...which one is most ready to run... which one grew up the most during layoff...
RACE 7--
ML favorite on a suspicious plunge off a long layoff after allowance wins. And trainer & jock have between them one solitary second place finish out of a combined 27 starts here.
Second ML fave, formerly in open maiden and allowance does not inspire much more confidence either @ 25K offering price..
RACE 8--
First two faves(disregard MTO entrant) may be compromised by fast early pace-- yes, even when bias favors speed that can occur.
RACE 9--
Very contentious race-- along with question marks on many. We can envision any, ALL and each of these winning AND finishing out of the money-- so not only why toss a coin-- why even waste time handicapping it further.
We could be persuaded to bet here if by chance two scratched out... as it stands, we'll let other contestants knock heads, and each other out here.
TODAY'S SELECTION-- Race 5 #5
INTRA DAY-- seems like our advise on the various races has been good for parimutuel betting-- doping out a winner with some semblance of a price-- although not for getting the suspect completely off the board.
The entry returned purchase drip seems to finally have dried up.
race 2: #4's gate stumble cost it at least place and maybe win. That would still place fave @ third-- hard to get it out in 5 horse field. #2 late scratch-- we would've considered #7 in 5-horse field. #5 just came here for the scenery-- never lifted a foot. #1 thoroughly basted & cooked in its own juices by the pace, was never going to hit board barring an accident.
race 3: #'s 2 & 6 lost all chance at the break. Yeah, they were longshots-- but that makes it a lot harder, if only mathematically-- to get the sucky fave off the board.
race 5: #5 not getting a ton of money, but then, no one else is less than 6-1...
Top 10 Selections for 8/1/2008
R# No Horse Name Percentage
3-- 3 Afleet Aya 32%
2-- 3 Casino Kay 14%
8-- 7 Prussian 14%
9-- 3 Zada Belle 13%
9-- 1 Miss Macy Sue 6%
6-- 4 Jibboom 4%
9-- 4 Rite Moment 3%
9-- 6 Graeme Six 3%
5-- 5 Ridge Royale 2%
1-- 3 Panthera Tigre 2%
ELIMINEE COUNT-- 338 OF 345 after 4... rollin', rollin', rollin'............
