The contenders in brief, also factoring in pre-Derby workout form, a most Crucial consideration:
Level 1-- HOF candidates(or at least 'potentially' so).
#20 Big Brown(3-1)-- not gonna tell you much you don't know already. He stands head and shoulders above all-- looks like this year's Barbaro. Obviously he hasn't had an acid test, but he has the potential, with continued improvement, to be this year's champion & Breeders' Cup winner. He is much more deserving of favored status(hate to utter that in such a large field) than #10 Colonel John(more on him later), a candidate for underlay of the year.
No one else merits inclusion @ this level-- now, it doesn't mean he's a cinch; but if he wins, it's by double-digit lengths.
Level 2-- Main contenders / candidates to finish in the money.
two nice prospects jump out: improving future Grade 1 winners who should make their presence felt here:
#12 Smooth Air(20-1)-- now don't think he's 'that' close in ability to Big Brown based on their last matchup; it was only the former's second race off a ½-year layoff & 3rd career race, plus he wasn't pushed late.
#5 Eight Belles(20-1)-- besides continued improvement, an alert start + clean early trip gives HER a chance to finish in the money.
Level 3-- Possible prospects
@ ½the rest of the field actually... some have a chance to best the two horses one level up, but it's hard to make such a case with any degree of certainty: too many questions remain about each. Conversely, it's hard to totally eliminate more than ½ the field in this year's running-- too many of these have numerous legitimate excuses for not having shown their best yet. Let's take them starting from the outside(& likely most-overlooked by the public). ALL these, btw show solid Churchill works / pre-Derby form :
#19 Gayego(15-1)-- BTW the name refers to a geographical area of Spain(get your mind out of the gutter, LOL)-- a Gallego(pronounce the double L as if a Y) is someone from Galicia in Spain.
Several things 'ALL have to happen':
'must' continue improving
'must' be able to rate like in his sprint races
'must' post a career-best final fraction
#17 Cowboy Cal(20-1)-- ONLY CHANCE is IF given a rating trip like in his November race.
#16 Denis of Cork(20-1)--needs BOTH an alert start & clean trip...glaring weakness is customary glacial early number.
#15 Adriano(15-1)-- may / must continue improvement.
#11 Z Humor(30-1)--serious questions remain whether he can handle this class of competition / pace... But the odds should be attractive though...& has looked great training @ Churchil...
#6 Z Fortune(15-1)-- switches to a track more hospitable to his running style, may jump up here.
#4 Court Vision(20-1)--eligible to receive the best trip of its career.
#2 Tale of Ekati(15-1)-- ditto above horse, plus eligible to improve significantly in third off layoff for a trainer known to not unduly push his charges early on.
Level 4-- Underlays
might have a chance, but underlaid odds prompt us to downgrade a level or two, if not toss out altogether. This year, the second & third favorites earn this notorious distinction. If you're playing exotics, you gotta figure the vast majority of the masses will be keying the top two/three ML choices; so, if you can't toss a couple of them from the top slots, then there's little sense in betting this race.
#10 Colonel John(4-1)--the Left Coast contingent looks very, very weak this year... plus this horse has been facing very, very weak early paces. Maybe we shouldn't hold that against him(he has lain fairly close up early at times), BUT he's being touted co-favorite or close second-- with a wide gap to the next best contender & everyone else. This is a horse whose top number only beats the top number of three other contenders-- by less than a length at that-- and two of them have legitimate excuses trip-wise!!!
One could make a case for him of being capable of posting a much better number because this will be only his third race of the year, and that his last race didn't amount to more than a public workout because a slot in the Derby was already secured(earnings-wise)... plus he lost ground and position early on... and has been working spectacularly @ Churchill Downs..
#9 Pyro(6-1)--IIFFF you can toss the last subpar race(was already qualified for the Derby earnings-wise, so he didn't even need to hit the board)-- possible... judging by his solid pre-Derby work form....THEN, a repeat of the Champagne last year gives him a chance...although at unattractively-low odds.
Level 5-- severely outclassed / don't belong in this race and/or show substandard Churchill works / pre-Derby form:
#1 Cool Coal Man(20-1)--he's not 'that' outclassed, esp. at expected price, it's just that too many others are more likely-- esp. if forced to loop the field from that inside spot. As well, not crazy re his workout form over the Churchill strip.
#3 Anak Nakal(30-1)--although he's on an upward cycle, his numbers are the lowest in this field...may have a better shot in the Belmont.
#7 Big Truck(50-1)--we doubt this horse would be here if Barclay Tagg didn't have another contender running...
#8 Visionaire(20-1)--disregard disadvantageous last race...although he will need to run a lot faster early(than accustomed to) so as to not lose touch with the field.
#13 Bob Black Jack(20-1)-- 'might scamper away alone early' what with blinkers and The Mig aboard... plus IF the other couple of early-pace contenders decide to rate or break poorly... Otherwise, his early numbers are not overly dominant... ditto his form @ Churchill...
#14 Monba(15-1)-- getting a clean trip AND displaying the ability to rate even further back early would give him a chance...outworked by stablemate though...
#18 Recapturetheglory(20-1)--if this horse was a closer he'd be a serious contender off his final numbers... but he ain't gonna do it here with his customary 'unpressured while slow early' pacesetting ways... in spite of the seeming lack of early speed, as compared to previous Derbies.
