Days 6 & 7 -- Monday & Wednesday

MONDAY

We were busy / not around... this was a wide-open race among several closers-- the onus should've been(as always) to ONLY consider the longest shots-- going by final odds, we would've been considering #'s 4, 5 & 7 @ 12, 10 & 26-1 odds respectively(yes, 9-10 to 1 is the cutoff point for inclusion in speculative bets) . Now, who knows how the odds would've been trending & been @ 5 min. to post(@ the safe limit to try and get contest bet in).  Maybe the middle-odds horse had been coming down from 8 or 9-- meaning toss out. Maybe the biggest longshot had been coming from 30+-1, in case it would've merited carrying all our contest dollars exclusively.
When we have a LONE  LARGE odds contender, 25-1 is our cutoff point-- above it we single it, below it we combo bet it with any other(s) double-digit odds contenders. In case you're wondering why, a 20-1 contender's odds can drop to the teens after the final off-shore money dump... you can then wind up with a single loser  w/ odds in the high teens and some other missed winner @ odds just slightly lower, say low teens, that you had tossed from consideration. Anyhow, at that odds level we need twice / thrice as many  winners to win the contest--keep in mind we'll only hit between 1 in 10 to 1 in 3 bets... we're better off collecting something at a much higher hit rate; to that end-- sometimes a solid contender @ single digit odds, that is fairly certain to hit the board, may be a better option than boxing 2 or 3 uncertain contenders with odds in the teens each... the total NET wouldn't be that much higher & the hit rate would be much lower.... a risk / reward consideration.

BTW above horses finished 1st, 3rd & 7th: either we would've bet all three(IF the 5 odds had been higher early), or only combined the winner w/ the rear-finishing one, or exclusively singled that larger-odds trailer.

Of note, we did NOT like the place horse no matter @ what enticing odds it would've been offered: Migliore still tends to ride too much towards the front early on(even though he's stated he realizes the late bias)-- with closers he tends to ride mid-pack & start his late move a bit too early... with today's result a typical microcosm: he finishes close but ends up getting passed late. 

PS earlier we've stated we dutch contest contenders-- we wish to change this to a reverse Dutch: this rewards larger odds AND minimizes the ground made up on us when the largest-odds contender wins, by those who've exclusively singled the winner w/ a full amount bet of $100. In this race's case the 7's odds are 26-1, 5 = 9 or 10-1, 4 = 11 or 12.... here 26 is a little more than 10 + 12 combined, so $55 to 60 can go on the 7, $25 on the 4, the left over(from $100) can go to the 9.
If say, we had tossed the 9, then the two bet amounts could've been $70 & 3o. Of course, you can reward extra brownie dollars to any contender, based on your handicapping.

WEDNESDAY

As with Monday, there're a few contenders, led odds be your final arbiter. Also one caveat-- any horse with the usual near the front style, which we eliminate outright, has a chance to win IF it endures some early mishap that forces the rider to settle early & make a move late OR maybe a new rider elects to take back early-- prime upset chance for some no-name rider to perhaps bring in a longshot):

1- lousy post for a closer & low % rider... demand great odds premium.

2- deceptively-good jock that shouldn't attract undue betting action.

4- ditto above, except the trainer is 0 in the money for 2007.

10- disregard Hol races, where beaten by others here...if jock is smart enough to lag back early, the win is in sight.

11- demand odds premium, rider not so hot.

BTW above are POST POSITION numbers only.

Good Luck.

Recap & painful weekly lesson

Let's try and take some lesson out of this disaster:

Firstly, the difference in the outcome was the rider: Rosario patiently outrode Talamo, who moved a bit too soon.

Second and MOST important: on this new-type of surface an early plodder is not an automatic tossout, esp. in a large field: the sheer number of horses almost guarantees a faster pace(ergo the front & anything near it will be backing up that much more late) & affords the plodder a better chance not to lose contact w/ the field.

 

As far as the contest: a consolation is that only @ 30 contestants had the horse-- we can still catch up, as long as there are at least two/three more bombs during the remainder.

Day 5 Sunday July 22

We are absolute morons, yes-- plural.

Last night we bet the standout fave here(because he just towered over this field), hoping for a non-odds-on price today.

Today, while simultaneously playing in two blackjack tourneys online, we tuned in w/ 5 min. to post... looking to ascertain our choice's odds(if too low, we'd either downgrade bet from win to lesser pool, or outright cancel the bet) &  for any playable cap horses.

We noticed three longshots, and discounted the chances of all except for the longest shot: its final figs were not encouraging, but late speed put it in the ballpark.... + new trainer, 2nd start, jock switch added to the intrigue....
then we said NAH! We'll just change the fave bet from win to place or show, since win price was kinda low....got shut out attempting that switch..... .....and.....

you know the rest.......

Multi-tasking & thinking with the clock ticking are not our strongest suits.

Our only contest prayer now is to exclusively bet longshots from here on out, no matter how hopeless.

Good luck all.

Days 3 & 4 Friday & Saturday

Friday: we were on the disqualified and much best show horse @ 12-1(yes, we broke yesterday's plan, but the odds on just about everyone else here were abysmally slow). FYI we disliked the 2nd, 4th & last place finishers, gave a chance to all the rest, most offered at miserly odds.

Saturday: Busy / traveling / shut out.

Day Three Friday July 20

World record holder One Hot Wish will scratch out, + we're not too crazy about its remaining entrymate(even though kind of highly-regarded)... therefore race is wide open(even the maidens have a chance)-- the only sure eliminations are I Dig Her & Warren's Appeal.

We will single anything firmly entrenched beyond cap level... so considerably over 35-1(we want to avoid late action lowering odds to 20-1 or below). Otherwise, if both halves of #1 entry stay in, we may take them in the money.

Day 2 Update

We actually did not make post time. We likely would've thrown the fave out and win-dutched the other three... tripling our total bet(don't think we'd've thrown out the second-fave entry, as the odds on the other two weren't that much higher, plus we liked the second part of the entry also-- a little bit though. Actually, no one in the race was offered at great odds-- maybe a little bit the winner: ruled the field class-wise & was let go @ 9/2. Otherwise, not even our peripheral contenders for the lower exotics slots: 8 & 5 offered any great value.)....

The only surprising part of the race's results was the early duelers holding on for place & show-- but when you see they were able to clear the field while putting up close to 26, 51, 1:16, 1:41 internal fractions-- no wonder.

As far as track profile so far-- it seems that at all distances & surfaces closers do well-- esp. those with superior turn time & that can start getting into contention a bit earlier.

 

Technorati Tags: Betting Picks, Contest Selections, Del Mar, Handicapping, Horse Racing, Online Contest, Wagering Pix

Day Two Thursday July 19

Win Contenders w/ ML odds:

1A: 5
2: 8
7:8
9:8

A lot will depend here on which jock best understands the surface winning profile(closing)... plus, any of these horses is just as likely to finish off the board as to take the whole thing.

1A: Has been facing much better, can the inconsistent Blanc do the job? Won't get great odds, w/ Frankel training...

2: Throw out its initial try in this continent....However, it will have to loop the field from that post,  + Migliore tends to ride forwardly-placed: a further negative....

7: Carries the best jock of all these....who's been riding well lately. Eligible to improve the most as the only 3yo...

8: Not crazy about the jock...although should consequently carry the largest odds....If able to duplicate last race's running style............

 

We doubt any of these will be let go at 25+ to 1.... We'll wind up either backing the 7 in the  money, OR win dutching any offered at sufficiently-large odds...we'll try to post actual contest selection later.

Day One Wednesday July 18

We didn't get a chance to post anything here before the race went off.

FYI To our handicapping service clients we released 1/2/6/7 as win contenders, recommending an exacta box, which hit. (Race results: 2/1/3/7/8/4/6/10/5)

As far as the contest, we were on the longshot 6, who loomed boldly and then hung. Both 6 & 7 may have been too close to early pace... even though it was extremely dwadling-- it looks like the way to win this year(at this short route distance) is to lay way back, then make a move late. In previous times, early speed has given a good account of itself at this exact distance-- but in all divisions of this Oceanside,  winners came from the back of the field & their final quarters ranged in the neighborhood of  22 / 22 & 2....to boot the slowest closing fraction was put up while overcoming traffic issues.

For the record, Victor Espinoza on the winner, gave a heady ride...overcoming tons of traffic trouble(which he may have caused himself by uncharacteristically not taking the overland route, as he's traditionally been wont to do).

Del Mar Online Handicapping Contest

Requisites for winning:

1. You must think ahead & look at the big picture / NOT get caught up in insignificant day to day standings ranks & moves...more on this further down the page.

2. You MUST catch longshots!!!!! Particularly cap horses- 35+-1..... There will be  from one or two to as many as three or four 25+-1 odds winners this meet-- you must NOT let more than one of those get away from you to have any shot at making the top 100, which is really only HALF the battle!

The other half? Well, if you succeed in accomplishing that...with as many as eight thousand  other contestants to deal with-- most of whom realize the importance of shooting for price, there will be a core group of anywhere from 50 to 200 that will have matched you-- you will need to have collected other smaller prices along the way for tiebreaking purposes.

3. Your 'biggest challenge' will be to determine for EACH race if there is any likely, standout winner @ whatever price... & whether any longshots have any legitimate chance. With 43 racing dates available, IF you play longshots willy-nilly: 40+ days of losing stabs offset the mutuels of two longshot winners. You will need also to collect lesser payoffs, and this can be accomplished one of a couple of ways:

win dutching, show betting, etc., depending on how many legitimate win contenders you're left with... and as well their odds. If say, you have an odds-on lock, you might back him for place or show... if you're left with 2-3 contenders, you either should back the longest-odds for place or show OR win-dutch all three: your object is to collect something(that will move you ahead of those that WILL be on those same long-priced winners later on in the contest... ).

Why do we not recommend win plays on lesser odds-horses? Odds as high up as the teens are not worth it: you'll be lucky if you can hit more than 1 in 10 winners here-- you're much better off collecting lesser prices at a higher rate: little by little you may be able to accumulate enough lesser daily winnings to equal one longshot winner's worth of mutuels; and "more importantly"-- anyone you fall temporarily behind(who had a win bet on that lesser-odds horse) is NOT a contest threat... they will eventually fall by the wayside: as they are employing an incorrect strategy. You MUST be considerably in the black on all your other non-longshot plays.

4. Play every day.

5. Pre-select something as early as the night before....you can bet & edit your picks right up until 'close' to post time. Play close attention to their close-off time, which they will adjust during the day to account for delays in previous races, BUT-- their running clock onsite can be a bit behind. Anyhow, you won't really need to cut things that close: odds must be over 20 to warrant a lone win bet, otherwise..... IF you do get shut out before post time for any reason, you can email your pick to miles and/or mary(look up their addresses onsite and add them to your contacts):
have your email client already-opened, filled w/ your pick, & addressed to them before making your pick, just in case.... one click will quickly do: if you have to start opening your email client, searching for their contact addresses, typing out your message, sending it(while hoping your connection does not suffer any slowdowns)... then you're at their mercy when deciding if your message arrived before post time(and remember, their clocks are a bit behind....which they refuse to acknkowledge). BTW their phone #'s are not direct-- you must wait until operator connects you through... gets a hold of them....
Make a choice early...then you can always edit it closer to post time.

6. Until proven otherwise, assume a closers' bias at all surfaces and distances...except for maybe the 2yo dashes.

7. Be willing to forgive a recent subpar race-- esp. if distanced / not pushed late, yet given a strong gallop out...and if now going off at large odds-- most such examples were likely pointing for this meet.

8. Physicality should play a huge role this year:

 Race day-- who looks like they do & don't enjoy the new surface and surroundings...

Day 10 In Progress..........

Race 4--

3 min. to post--7/9/1/4 identical favored odds.... 4 been drifting up from almost odds-on level to 3..... 4 has the most contest votes, then our 9...and + whoever becomes posttime favorite will carry significant scratch votes..... we're now favored... hate that.
4 delayed start due to "equipment adjustment".... goes wire to wire. 9 was dozen lengths back early after getting pushed out by one of the pigs...the 8? No chance now. 7 pulled up, 6 suddenly dropped out of it.

For some reason, the track looks(& plays) sealed to us....

We're mentally preparing ourselves for elimination-- we only have longshots in remaining races.

Race 6--

1/2//3/4/7 vying for favoritism.... 3 acting up in the gate...it carries a ton of contest votes, someone else'll be favored-- & carry all the scratch votes...rider off 3... back on.... our 6 sandwiched back to last at the start--- what a day for us. 3 no room the length of the stretch, finally squeezed thru near the wire...claimed by R. Dutrow

Race 9--

1 just took some money: jumped from 11 to 6.....

1 broke sluggishly and gradually lost ground on the rail thereafter.....

Sayonara everyone... see you next @ DelMar contest.

DAY 10 SUNDAY JUNE 10

Race 4:

Debating between 3 & 9, alternates: 5/7
We hate the 1, Exchange Lay it.

EDIT AFTER SCRATCHES: 3/5 not running, took 9

Race 6:

1/2/6 main contenders, alternates: 4/9/10

EDIT AFTER SCRATCHES: Vacillating between 2 & 6...we'll stay w/ the longshot-- in so doing we're basically saying re the 2: if you're so good, as the pp's indicate, why are you running for a tag... and this low to boot?

Rrace 9:

1/4/8 main contenders, alternates: 5/9/6

EDIT AFTER SCRATCHES: Staying here w/ the longshot as well. MUST have improved from 2 to 3, esp. if it's going to gun from the inside... or we'll also take unforeseen closing ability(not just stalking).

Pending scratches & barring sudden weather / surface change, we're going the longshot route today. We have no choice--  we have too many long prices among our contenders. If we let even one get away, we'll really be in a hole; conversely, if we hit just one we'll sweep to the lead...two might put us beyond reach of all.

We may get eliminated today... so be it.

Good luck.

EDIT AFTER SCRATCHES: We're breathing a sigh of relief after the scratches in the 4th-- 3/9/5 were all strong & now we don't have a quandary of longshot flyer vs solid contender... the decision's made for us. As well our day does not ride on longshots in all races; while we do stay on longshots in the next two, the solid choice here should hit the board and allow us to take a coupla flyers afterwards.
We happen to be riding twice on Trainer Pompay in the bookend races btw. We need for her charge in the last race to have matured enough since last season to put up a bigger number...and hopefully as well to have learned to rate even more.

Buona fortuna.

Day 9 In Progress

We audibled in the 4th race:

to the 2--

better: post/jockey/upside potential/quality of past competition & pace faced/ML odds(2nd fave rather than 1st fave)...  ALTHOUGH a bit less consistent / riskier choice!

2 @ 4-1, 5 @ 8/5... & twice as many contest votes on the fave. We like to be in position to advance while lots of folks lose...potentially(we're in such a position all day actually, as we've disdained the heavy faves in the other two races as well).......... so we won't shed a tear if both the fave & our horse bite the dust... let'em bump & wipe each other out.

If you played our pix, then you had the exacta, tri & super. BTW when you play our choices, if co-faves are included, never stick them both in the 1-2 slots OR only bet enough on those combos to hedge / break even. For example Exactas: key 5 & 2 over and beneath 1/7/6 ONLY. Supers: do your combos manually-- start by boxing all five horses, then remove the combos that have both 5 & 2  in the top two slots(first & third/fourth are ok though), and those that have BOTH of them out of the first two slots.

Our 2 had no excuses, it broke very well(& got odds cut in half as a consequence) & secured the garden stalking position, then the seas parted and it slipped thru, but first the 5 & very late the 6 overtook it. The 2 should do better both at a longer route & while closing from a bit further back-- but it really had no choice in this race, both from the inside post & the short mile distance: if it takes back it then gets trapped in no man's land.

We have no regrets re having audibled off the fave-- we'll do it again anytime. We just took the worst of it with the late odds plunge. Forget about too many elims today, with the first two choices both hitting the board. Actually, check that: we don't like the public choices in the next races, so there's still hope for some bloodletting today...

Of note though: the top-ranked contestant's choice didn't hit...this is one person we're watching like a hawk: he/she's @ $65 in front of the closest competitor; and may go down today...its next two choices in order are: the 1 in the 6th, the 8 in the last... both of which we don't like.

Race 6:

The 9 is actually vying for favoritism-- give us a second to scratch our heads... its lineage is conducive to routing & late development-- apart from lousy connection stats, including a goose egg with debuters. Our 7 a bit cold on the board.... we're satisfied though: we assigned speed numbers to all contender workouts here, & it rules the rest, plus its connections' stats are not as negative as most others'.  The contest consensus 6 we absolutely hate...we're hoping it can grab outright favoritism-- (favorites automatically get assigned all scratchee votes)...

9 dumped rider & broke loose while loading.... finally caught her, very fractious.... should be scratched IMO.... fractious again, rider off-- will load w/o rider, rider now on, still very fractious in gate...they're off. Shoots out first like a bat out of hell, gets overtaken late by the 2-- another with breeding more conducive to routing, negative jock  + trainer ice-cold stats: 0 x 19 debuters, 1 x 39 straight maidens. It did have decent works, but there's NO way we woulda played it-- we woulda rather took the 9 first-- & actually we ALMOST  gave the 9 out as a longshot play.

The very-worst play here was the favorite-- in several races it has not come within several lengths of posting a par time(neither final nor internal) for this class level. So now, despite facing a ton of debuters they're gonna make it the favorite?!!?! Please!!!

We couldn't even get the favored 6 off the board: it did not threaten the top two but did get  the distant third...though we did get the contest's runaway leader off the board again...two down, one to go.

Race 9:

Upcoming favorite, which we dislike, has the most votes today...by a wide margin. Currently @ 3/5, our choice @ 5/2, everything else is @ double-digit odds.

Awwrighteethere... fave did win, but at least contest leader bit the dust. Our hero took a nice bump out of the gate.

A domani.

DAY 9 SATURDAY JUNE 9

RECORD TO DATE--  24: 8-4-6

Across-the-Board ROI(based on $2 w/p/s): $2.40  +20%

$2 WIN ROI: $2.18  +9%

Highest-odds winner: 7-1

3 for 3 days: 1 

THIS WEEK SO FAR-- 9: 3-3-0 

Across-the-Board ROI(based on $2 w/p/s): $2.96  +48%

$2 WIN ROI: $2.49  +24½%

Highest-odds winner: 5-1

3 for 3 days: 0

 

The reasons why we survived yesterday hold the key to the mint not just for contests, but for making money in the real world. Friday saw almost half the still-surviving contestants eliminated. Something like the first three consensus choices in each/every race failed to hit the board; and as we speak only 19% of original contestants remain(after just 8 days); even tho' smaller-size fields abounded(high numbers of scratches) & favorites/consensus choices did very well the first 7 days.

Firstly, kindly disregard our contest stats for real world money-making purposes-- we only post them for bona fides reasons: to give you impetus to accept some of our more off the wall concepts. A lot of those races were contest-forced, WE wouldn't bet them- even w/ YOUR in-laws' money(yes, in real life our win & roi rates are much, much higher... they have to be!!! since we get to cherry-pick from a huge simulcast menu, as well of course the entire bet-type menu).

OK, back to yesterday-- firstly, be aware that due to tech difficulties we have not had use of our main handicapping software for most of the contest so far... but that's not a catastrophe because of the main principles we utilize, which allow us to earn a living & win contests no matter which software / figure service we use:

Potential + Run to Par + Form Cycle Status... these categories, plus other related sub-categories, can be summed up in one question(which you should be asking for almost each race you handicap):
"Which one of these is the likeliest to decimate this field and/or go on to climb the ladder to fame & riches"?
Just asking this one question will place you eons ahead of the mad crowds-- simply because they focus too much on what already happened in the pp's: expecting history to repeat itself--  it allows you instead to better predict "what is going to happen TODAY". 
You should expect that in every race lurks one(or more) horse ready to take it to the next level / run significantly faster than par for the race class / condition.
Where/when the public errs the most is:
1. In a race where all entrants(of those with sufficient pacelines on record) have not before or can't/won't run to par today both internal & final fig-wise. Said public  then favors the obvious highest-fig entrants from among that inferior camp.
2. Does not sufficiently forgive subpar efforts due to: seemingly slight surface variation(say good instead of fast/firm), first couple of races off a layoff, subtle bad trip, trainer/jock intention, first couple of tries at new distance range / surface, etc. YET, ironically, IS willing to forgive an animal's bad effort and/or downward form cycle when its connections are willing to run for a significantly-reduced purse and/or shop the animal for a lesser price!!!

And that takes us to the crux of this contest's strategy: the time to try to beat a heavy favorite, apart from when it carries glaring defects, is really only when #1 condition is present and/or multiple still-unproven runners posess significant upward potential.
Especially at premier/short/boutique meets, favorites win at a disproportionately-high proportion(up to almost ½ for all first favorites &  9/10 when odds-on)-- trying to beat them willy-nilly would've gotten one eliminated during the first seven days here, while backing them too much would've eliminated one yesterday...as well as  have kept one far down in the standings during the preceding time.

We could really expound endlessly re expanded subtleties & additional categories + theories... replete w/ individual race examples; but we'll leave that for a future dedicated column.

Onto Saturday's cards:

Race 4:

5 is too much the standout here..."as long as it doesn't get suckered into laying too close to the projected suicidal pace"(we'd prefer to see a better jock aboard).  For that reason there'll likely be plenty of scratches here-- way too many speedballs are entered.
Alternate choices: 1/2/7... maybe 6.

Race 6:

The experienced ones here have put up horribly-subpar internal & final figs, + the debuters for the most part have horrible debut stats re sire & connections.
One notable 'kind of' exception is the 7, alternate choices: 1, 5, entry.
Speaking of entry-- if you just can't come up with something solid here, a viable alternative would be to allow the track wise guys & insiders to steer you: select the outside part of the entry, as it will likely scratch out AND dollars to donuts in this race the live/best debuter will likely be favored. ORRR, IFFFF you have time to play tomorrow after scratches,  just select one of the scratched ones....

Race 9:

3 stands out to us here, alternate choices: 5, 8.
Also, we do NOT like the ML fave 6, and may look to lay it at an Exchange.

 

Good kuck lids -err lick kuds -err luck kids. This dyslexia is killing us.

Day 8 In Progress

Race 4--  Not too keen on the fave dueling...however, no excuse for sorry performance. Winning trainer Alexander claimed him.

We totally & completely missed this race analysis, however, we're glad to lose-- this horse carried the most contestant votes today. If the next two races cooperate, today'll be an elimination bloodbath. Of course, we're sitting very vulnerable as well-- we don't have anything near the top 3/4 consensus choices in the next two races. So it's either us + likely only a scant few others, & at a price, or most of the rest that will be advancing today.

 

Race 6-- Our hopes here ride on Fragoso aboard a turf debuter-- we're encouraged he started off the day with a good winning ride.

Okie, dokie-- in like Flynn @ 12-1...& we got the favorite, third-favorite & Bravo on the fourth-favorite off the board!

Firstly, we totally disregarded the 2nd-favorite & actual winner-- due to both the layoff & departure from Pletcher's barn. Secondly, our hero suffered a ton of traffic problems-- to the point we thought the race was lost. Fragoso did a heckuva job breaking alertly & securing the rail w/o pushing the horse unduly. But from there he endured slow horses in front of him & getting pinned against the rail by those to his immediate right...losing ground and position late backstretch, turn & early stretch.

The first three horses here were much the best, the others will need to improve significantly.

 

Race 8-- we've audibled here to the 4, primarily because of the inferior turn time of the 5. And we root for 2, 6, & 9(especially whichever one of them goes off favored)to finish off the board & complete today's elimination bloodbath. BTW the 15-1 ML 5 that we audibled off is vying for favoritism here, while the actual ML favorite 9 is at double-digit odds & longest shot of the board. 10 is now vying for favoritism after Brad Thomas touted it on his race analysis broadcast.

Mission accomplished + all three others off the board!!! The latter wasn't that likely, as the race had scratched down to 8 entrants. Our hero had shown a huge fig improvement in his 2nd both off the layoff & as 3yo...that day was a speedfest: he was the ONLY non-wire to wire winner, putting up something like 11 & 3 closing furlongs. Today he was not able to either secure the inside or close stalking trip like we hoped-- he was last or next-to last early & had to take the overland route to win. What allowed our hero to win was the patient & confident ride from his jockey: he was laying next to last early(the two trailers well in back of the rest), then the trailer(& eventual place horse / loser of the photo) made his move, and but our jock just let him by...& only moved later at his pleasure-- coming widest of all to win the photo. Of note, the 5 that we audibled off came in third, actually sticking his head in front mid-stretch before succumbing to the top two.

We're gonna take a wild guesstimate-- as many as one thousand were eliminated today, narrowing the field down to some 1-2-3 hundred.

DAY 8 FRIDAY JUNE 8

RECORD TO DATE--  21: 7-3-6

Across-the-Board ROI(based on $2 w/p/s): $2.45  +23%

$2 WIN ROI: $1.91  -4-3/4%

(Yesterday we were involved in three win photos-- getting the nod only once... while our secondary contenders rounded out one super & the exacta in all of them.)

Today's racing is very dangerous: double-digit size fields in all three races-- w/ no standout lock in any of them....a bottom-barrel claimer, maiden route turfer, & entry-level Allowance Turfer with some surface firsters. To boot, fitness/recency/ability to run-to-par/track debut questions plague any potential standouts in all three.

Yes, one could elect to take a free pass(kinda early to be doing so-- unless one is very dedicated & non party animal-like... all it takes is missing one day w/ an earlier-than normal post time or some weekend when one stayed out late the previous night or got caught on the road to some resort)... while also missing out on a couple of potential bombs. We'll stay the course. Refer to review of the 6 horse for a coupla tricks / alternatives useful in a contest card like today's.

All in all, this weekend could turn out to be very crucial-- come Monday the field could be whittled down to as low as a coupla hundred.

Race 4

6 is the standout...will likely be odds-on...sorry. If you need a Bud longshot, take the 7.

EDIT: Contenders here are 6 thru 9

Firstly, none of these can run anywhere close to par-- in fact, only three are capable of running in even remotely competitive fashion vs a par 'pace of race'!! All but two of these not only have never won 2 races, but can't even boast of a single close and in the money finish vs 'conditioned & low-level claimer dregs'. Therefore, anyone boasting an in the money finish while facing open claimers and/or a fast pace is a candidate to demolish this field.

6: just towers over this field with multiple win/in the money/competitive efforts vs open mid to high level claimers & fast early paces...while also one of the lightest-raced here. If it hasn't soured / lost form from racing against much tougher, it could/should win by the proverbial country mile. This horse will by far carry the most contestant votes tomorrow, but it's very dangerous to try to beat it, with the other two races looming so inscrutable. IF this contest allowed betting each race right up until post time, then one could take that chance, with an eye towards charting the tote in the next two races(in order to jump on any significant bet pattern-- a very telling clue in those type of tossups. One viable alternative if you insist on beating this fave-- take the highest-post AE / MTO in the next two races...your selection likely won't make it into the race, thus putting you on the post time favorite. In those inscrutable-type affairs inside information & its money flow have a very good chance of tiding you over. You could also take any mount ridden by the meet's dominant rider(s) going off at fairly high odds, debuting surface/distance, trained by small/obscure/low percentage trainer).

The rest are only contenders in a least-worst sense / maybe the horse to beat fails to fire today sense / try to beat the odds-on favorite sense...

7: is used to facing very fast early paces & there's a slight chance it could find itself alone on an early lead. Apart from aforementioned there's little else recommending it: typically tends to lose ground in the stretch-- poignantly evidenced by its seconditis record.

8: this bottom-level maiden claiming Philly graduate becomes a contender 'only' because it has not faced non-maidens yet-- it thus has NOT shown that it CANNOT handle conditioned claimers!!! It will not find itself alone on the pace call like last time...and will need to improve its final fig substantially-- which it very well is a candidate to accomplish, with only 1 route / 4 previous races under its belt.

9: obvious contender, although it carries huge fitness & affinity for this track questions.

Race 6

Too many unknowns!!!!! Contenders: Entry/4/3/7/11/10/13

We'll take 4: high-priced yearling has nothing but bullet grass works, while advantageously tagged w/ double-digit ML; Fragoso knows how to bring in live longshots.  Whatever you do, do NOT take the 12: sucker bet.

Race 8

6 piques our curiosity, but this race is wide open 'dependant on trip'.

EDIT: Contenders-- 2/4/5/6/10 However, anyone can win. The main problem is the distance: the very short route could well help whoever gets the best trip... not necessarily the best horse will win here.  It could be a lone frontrunner-- the pacesetters in here have also rated in the past-- there's always the chance some aggressive one will grab the lead while simultaneously the other early battlers get caught flatfooted / decide to take back. It could be one of the prompters / stalkers from a garden spot just behind the early duel; and good luck guessing who it might be: maybe one of the speedballs that took back, one of the prompters, or even one of the deep closers which happened to benefit from an auspicious start. Then, from this group and/or the deeper closers: who/will anyone be the recipient of the rail parting or a seam between horses developing late?

2: Speed and the rail. This horse can also rate, but due to post & blinkers on will likely gun. Might scamper off alone early, as his main rivals for the lead have been rating recently / often.

4: Demand 20-1 + odds... as there are plenty of  unanswered questions re surface, ability to face this caliber of pace, connection's cold stats... It will be its third start off layoff & as 3yo, so plenty of upside potential vs these older horses. As well it could find itself sitting in the garden rail spot right behind the frontrunners. 

5: IF this closer can stay within decent range of the leaders.. We're going to audible to this one due to the nice 15-1 ML...for now......

6: Not entirely sold on this horse's newfound closing kick... plus in order to have a chance it can't lag as far back early as it did last race.

10: Possible horse for course, Castro back aboard a great +. However, MUST pair up last year's MTH form, NOT its recent one.

 

Final selections for the latter two races will become clearer once rider assignments & also-eligibles / scratches get sorted out. 

Good Luck.

Rant: weekend races not up yet.

Day 7 Wrap-up

Race 4

If we could foretell closing odds, how much easier this contest would be-- 11-1 vs 6/5, vs 9/2 vs 7!?!?  Even late in the betting the odds spread wasn't so great: the fave was @ 5/2, the 9 was as low as 4, the 4 @ 6....BTW re the fave: as they went to load it tumbled to 9/5, then 3/2...after they sprung the gates it hit 6/5. [We do believe that there's widespread betting at simo shops after the race starts--folks bet several main contenders, then call up the bets just prior to loading..they'll then watch the start+ early portion-- cancelling those with poor performance early, doubling up on those with favorable breaks. At tracks with early biases in particular they probably make a killing]. The 1 looked home-free midstretch, the 9 just didn't look like it would get there.  We have two rider critiques here:

9- Cruz went to the whip way too soon(early turn). 1- went a bit too fast at the start, chasing the speedball... it needed to settle down early much sooner than it did. As well we weren't too enthused about putting on blinkers.

All in all, no regrets: this was the safe play by the numbers; we just didn't figure to be odds-on while conversely to boot an in-the-money contender was let go @  double-digit odds.  We figured the actual winner's post time odds would fall somewhere between the other two contenders 4 & 9...while the fave's somewhere @ 5/2; thus making the other unsure contenders unappealing risk vs reward-wise. 

At least we're qualified for today... while having one price play later in the 6th: we audibled from the likely odds-on 6 to the 3(hopefully it should carry double-digit odds). What facilitated that decision is that Dutrow already burned us in this contest with a similar-profile horse...now we hope he repeats again, taking a bunch of contestants with him.

Race 6

Late scratch 5.... how can we eliminate contenders with 6-horse fields abounding?

Uggh, nipped again in the shadow of the wire-- by one of our other contenders...post position is mainly what shied us away from the the winner 9.  The 4 leaned the 3 up against the rail a bit coming off the turn into the stretch... we were tag-teamed here.  And we went off at too low odds...ehhh, at least we got the odds-on fave off the board.

Race 7

Lay the 5 at an Exchange...you should get a 50% payoff.

About time we won a photo! And we get another fave off the board! Our hero broke too well & gained too well of a position early for its own good. Early on, we did not think that it would even finish in the money as a consequence of this-- and coming off the far turn it sure looked like the whole field would engulf it(two horses checked right behind it in fact), but watch Castro's heady use of the whip to hold off the cavalry...and in deep stretch it really seemed as if the 6 would overtake it. Nevertheless, Rajiv sure rode well today...he's always live on a longshot.

 

Weekend picks up shortly. Look for as many as one thousand to be eliminated come Monday: today somewhere between 3-600, + there's another 500 who've used up their free pass, tomorrow's contest races ALL have large fields...let's see how good our forecasting turns out to be.

DAY 7 THURSDAY JUNE 7

Less than 100 eliminated yesterday-- not gut.

Race 4

We remain w/ the 1. Other possibilities at a price could include: 4/8/9...although none will likely be offered at sufficiently-high odds to warrant a look.

Race 6

Our revised contender list: 3/6/8/9...though they all have serious question marks:

3: Returns to trainer it did the best racing for-- putting up numbers which would decimate this field IFFFF able to revisit them.

6: Dutrow juice?

8: Hard to dismiss anything Castro rides nowadays, BUT kinda suspicious why it departed Allowance ranks.

9: Trainer may be getting geared to run this horse back up the class ladder to its former level. Hopefully Rajiv's able to secure a decent stalking spot / stay out of traffic problems, then get first crack at the cheap speed that's for the most part on a downward form cycle here.

Tough contest race to pick-- not only re questionable form for most, but because the ML assigned odds (for 3,8,9 that is)straddle the fence: any of 'em could wind up w/ either single or double -digit odds. The 6 of course, will attract the majority of votes. We'll revisit these choices come scratch-time.

Race 7

Contender list: 2/3/4/6/7/8 Also-- the 5 does not deserve ML favoritism. If able to access an Exchange, Lay it.

2: Posted a great closing fraction in turf sprint.... 3rd off layoff, class drop, & turf route distance give it a chance.

3: Hasn't done much, but has been facing better & most importantly is bred for routing-- to boot classic distances at that.

4: Horse to beat with a clean trip & heady Castro ride.

6: Strong closing kick-- blinkers off, firm turf & improved trip give it a chance.

7: Worth a shot a double digit odds-- it's certainly NOT a  sure tossout.

8: Not much to recommend...but Frankel @ likely double-digit odds makes it worth an extra look.

Apart from our actual contest choice, 4, the rest are pure speculative plays...plus none carry sufficiently-high ML odds to entice us to leave the 4; & additionally, it's not listed ML favorite. We're still focused on Survival mode this early in the contest. IF we take a purely speculative chance here and there, we'd like to be fairly certain of getting 25+-1 odds AND more importantly-- that the other two day's races are not tossups. Yes, if any of our contenders sport double-digit ML odds, we'll always give them a long look.

DAY 6 RECAP

Race 5--

Guess our choice(2nd fave-- too bad it didn't get favored...if we were going to lose, might as well take more contestant choices down in flames with us) didn't take to the weeds....yes, it shouldn't've fought for the lead, but still-- it quit like a pig. All in all, we wouldn't change our pick -- even after the fact: no way would we bet a Luis Rivera mount with YOUR money-- to boot it was the fave(who also carried the votes of all scratched horses).

Race 8--

Great job by Castro on our choice to not let the front get away too much from him...he's been riding so well... Although we were actually hoping our horse would fall down, because it was the posttime fave(as the scratched horses here had garnered heavy backing). Too bad Bravo mount, who imploded, didn't become 1st favorite-- instead of just 2nd...

Race 9--

Finally a fave implodes, along WITH votes of heavily-backed scratched horses. Our choice was not too far back early, then suddenly backed up midway thru the backstretch.

Don't think too many folks got eliminated today-- no more than 300 is our guess...

DAY 6-- WEDNESDAY JUNE 6

We'll stay put w/ selections posted previously. BTW nothing's a lock today:

5th race: Our choice is solid-- ideal fit to the conditions, BUT: 1. it's debuting over a new surface, 2. we're not crazy about connection stats(although the horse has been performing well for them). 3. Late scratches have made a shambles of the race shape: no one may want(be good enough to carry it) the lead OR someone may scamper off alone. Four to five horses here look to vie for favoritism here, & the remaining don't look to go off too long odds-wise.

8th race: Two main contenders here...the likely best one here's the import, but you can never tell for sure how it's going to fare off the layoff and US debut... as well the short ML odds & Bravo aboard are contest uber-negatives. So we take the other one, who towers over all the rest, but it's no lock: it's a closer stuck inside-- at a distance & new rail placement(out 24 feet) that could allow / aid one of the speedsters that might scamper away alone. Who knows, it may turn out to be the actual post-time favorite...definitely no price bonanza here.

9th race: most of the field is within a length or so top-fig-wise. Our selection's posttime odds may not match its ML longshot status, as it's being touted by the wise guys.

 

Our three choices today can all win, or all finish off the board with a bad break here and there... & to boot we may not get great prices either.

 

Good luck.

Early pre-Selections & ANALysis for Days 6 & 7

DAY 6

Race 5

Entrants here can be fitted into several categories, w/ some members of more than one: speedsters who need an unpressured early lead, some former speedsters who now are showing a rating style, turf debuters, & some hopelessly outclassed entrants: who either don't begin to measure up by the numbers and/or are undergoing a poor form cycle.

So, we've looked here for a good stalker or closer, in good form. Yes, this is a dash & our chosen hero may not win, but this is not our ultimate goal-- it's an in the money contest: we want someone running well late, as opposed to someone who may win or finish up the track.

Among the stalkers & closers the obvious contenders would be: 2, 3, & 6...plus possibly 4,5,7-- these latter may be prompted to fight for the lead or taken back / rated; irregardless re this final group-- none measure up based on one or more of the following: numbers, form, win %, connections %. NOW, we didn't just blithely dismiss any-- for instance: the 5 has a useable line 3 races back, + further could deserve a few extra points for a better trip today, not only re wide, but also re posting a better closing fig if within sight of the leaders. However, there's: a question of form, second & third-itis %, abysmal trainer key stats in relevant Turf categories...

We've pre-selected the 2: nonwithstanding subpar connections stats & turf debut, this is the ideal Allowance animal with the most potential: 3yo vs a bunch of elders, lightly-raced yet possessing improving numbers(adjust last number to account for double trouble please), consistent in the money record, has never been risked in a claiming race, can close yet is able to stay close to the pacesetters... Of the remaining rateable contenders: the oldster here, 3, looks intriguing, but we'd prefer to see better connections & less of a second & third-itis %... 6:  It is encouraging to see Lez back aboard, and its past classy Turf dash figs, adjusted for trouble, would allow it to contend for the top spot here, but we're concerned about poor recent form-- both race & workout-wise.

Race 8

Two standouts here: the entry(Mott & Bravo) and the 3. We're on the 3 but may look closer at the entry based on who scratches & Bravo rides...for this contest each entry member is a separate choice.

Race 9

Apart from the Monmouth debuter 7(coming off a subpar race btw), the rest can be divided into two camps: proven MTH losers & MTH hourse for coarse. In this latter category reside three entrants:  2 / 4/ 10.

2: notice its score last year here, when shipping in off subpar PHA races & while also stepping up in class(on paper, that is). Is it repeating that pattern again? Even if so, that number, the top showing in last 12 pp's, only makes it one of several eligible to win....IIFFF / assuming the top two faves on suspicious class plunges & off questionable form don't fire(even a substantially-lesser number than they're accustomed to would decimate this field).

4: Why is this horse running at 1/3 its value, while to boot coming off great works?

10: Most suspicious of all: former 9-yo Allowance / Stakes horse laid up 25 months...

Kind of between a rock & a hard place here because the website handicapper gave out the 20-1 ML #2 as his top choice-- we'll fall back quite a bit & to numerous contestants if we back someone else & it comes in. For now we'll take the 2 & make a final decision at scratch time.

 

DAY 7

Race 4

Stereotypical toss-up. Horses are so inexperienced that even those with only poor form showing can wake up when trying new surface / distance / jock / etc.

We'll take a chance on the 1 horse, despite its rail post-- its tractability seems advantageous vs. the un-rateable main-contender speedsters...and it faced an extremely fast pace last time. In fact, we'll include it in our Daily Parlay, barring low odds.

Race 6

We'll ride the Dutrow ju-err magic, #6.

Race 7

Main contenders look to be in the middle here: 4-8

We'll take the 4 now, then re-evaluate based on actual ML  & scratches.

The whole Day 7 will actually get a second look.

Day 5 / Weekend 2 Recap

Ho, hum. Just over ½ original contestants remain after two partial weekends. We were hoping to additionally eliminate next week the 500 or so entrants who've used up their free pass(if say, most were to overlook weekday racing commencing this week), but with Wed. entries up since yesterday(+ Thurs. up today), that's a longshot.

Race 4:

A. We got fooled by the underlayed winner 1. There was no clue its latest connections entertained any thoughts of changing its running style back to how it achieved its best successes over a year ago.

B. We zagged instead of zigging re our two win contenders(underlayed as well): the one we used finished up the track, the unused one placed(enduring a smidgen of a traffic jam)-- & at better odds. What a contrast in racing trips too, for two horses next to each other post position-wise-- as Murphy's Law usually dictates: the one we ended up utilizing brought up the rear while on an overland route, and the one we discarded was able to secure good inside position and contend for the win.

Race 8:

Our choice finished third...BTW great candidate for including in show parlaying: with 4 entrants vying for favoritism, you know at least 1 / possibly 2 or more will fail to hit the board, thus throwing a decent show price of at least $3.00. In such instances the Place slot holds little attraction + carries excessive risk/reward baggage: for a few cents to @ $1 more it usually's not worth it(keep in mind that most leading contenders will not usually get whipped to death to improve finish position once the Win looks out of reach)... and a Win bet holds no attraction for us until the Win price passes $9. When it does, we'll usually bet in the following manner & ratio: either Show or Place 2 or 3 Units AND 1 Unit to Win; and if we also find a vulnerable favorite in the same race we may instead proceed to Exotics.

BTW great job from Bravo on the race winner: securing inside from his wide post... one of the reasons we didn't fancy this entrant, along with the undue attention its rider usually brings. The place finisher we didn't fancy too much either for the win, but it's hard to toss turf speedsters completely out of the money, esp. because rail placement was moved out recently & rains have not abounded-- the resultant firmer going aids their chances.

Race 10:

Monmouth NEVER included the 1 horse, who was MTO in scratch report...leading us to believe race was taken off the Turf; thus prompting us to edit our pick to the only MTO entrant(who btw sported far superior dirt figs & as well form).

Yes, it worked out better for us in the end: we got switched to the post time fave(who actually won), BUTTTT we scrupulously avoid being on a race time fave: not only does it attract undue votes, but all scratched selections get transferred to it... most contestants get eliminated when consensus choice(s) fail to hit the board, a vulnerable spot to be avoided whenever possible.

Good Luck-- we'll post something re the next two contest selections a bit later.

DAY 5 final contest picks & In Progress bet recommends

Only one change-- 10th race, we'll guess is erroneously reported as staying on the Turf, since lone MTO #1 hasn't been reported scratched...he'll be our actual contest pick.

No pari bet recommends as of now...we may include one or two contest picks in our daily Parlay, maybe not...or we may instead look to lay some false contender...or maybe nothing $$ worthwhile will materialize.

Stay tuned.We will add edits to this post, rather than commence brand new ones.

 

EDIT: We took the day off...had we stuck around, our 8th race selection($3.00) would've been part of daily show parlay.

MORE RANTING

Just dropped almost 100 places in standings on day with no contest race. Other times you'll often see remaining survivor count change during days with no racing / after 2-3 dark days. Software must be real glitchy.

And re Sunday 10th race, track live feed reports race as run over the turf-- while contest picks handicapper reports it switched to dirt...we see no mention of lone MTO horse scratched, so we ASSume race is on dirt..& switch our contest pick to the MTO horse, #1.

DAY 5 SUNDAY JUNE 3

(The expected Day 5-- Saturday, was canceled due to technical problems)

RACE 4

Preliminary thoughts-- scratches can alter course of action greatly.

1. Winner should be either 7 or 8...they have a lot of similarities: horse for course, been freshened up, they have the closing numbers suited to today's 9 furlong distance, & their trainers have positive % in several key / pertaining stats...the 7 in particular reunites with trainer who led it to its best successes(in the current pp record). That being said, it remains to be determined with certainty whether it can come back to last year's top form OR if advancing age and/or the previous connections have irreparably diminished it...so our contest choice for now is the 8.

2. If either above scratches, the 12 can be added to win contender status, BUT his trainer & jock EACH are 1 for 2007, he will enjoy a nice wide trip, & will be sporting miserly odds. Parimutuelly-speaking, we would never bet this horse to win, if at all-- we would only hook him in exotics w/ our other contenders(non-fave ones at that).

3. 10 is a 'saver' win contender(not bet alone, ONLY hooked in exotics with other contenders).

4. 1/2/5/9/11...

A. IFFFF by chance, four of these five scratch, the remaining one moves up to win contender status.

B. IFFFF by chance, three of those five scratch, AANNDDD odds allow, the remaining two get added to 'saver' win contender status--conditions in points 2, 3 & 5 required).

5. IF playing exotics, 4 & 6 merit inclusion in 'underneath' slots IF odds surpass 7-1.

RACE 8

#9 just leaps off the page: numbers, success in dashes, tractability along with ability to lay close, age + potential, high % / consistent record, form cycle, connections... contest choice. This is not your stereotypical no-value fave, as a total of four here are vying for ML favoritism.

Other possibles: #2

RACE 10

Tossup, many could surprise:

#3 IFFF able to handle today's pace of race(way faster than it's ever faced)

#4 Not likely, but not an auto tossout.

#2 & 5 & 10 Cheap speed...all other frontrunning foes would need to scratch out in order to consider win candidate.

#6, 7, 9 Not likely...& we'd need to see 25+-1 odds to consider.

#8 ¿Serey magic? Lukewarm contest choice.

#11 Not a win candidate, BUT eligible to garner a minor piece.

Final scratches may drastically alter our actual contest choices in all races today.

Look for surviving contestants to dip below ½ today...maybe even down to 1/3 . Along those lines we're kinda disappointed Wednesday's races put up yesterday-- there're almost 500 contestants who already used up their free pass, ideal candidates to be eliminated if not aware of the imminent start of weekday racing.

Good Luck.

DAY FOUR RECAP

Today's results almost reflect how risky playing for price can be in this contest-- we didn't squeak by a whole lot. It just doesn't take much sometimes: one entrant contesting pace instead of taking back, another one not liking the surface...and now your contest hopes ride on a single entrant who might not like the surface / weather, or due to its running style endure commonplace turf bad trip / be done in by the bias, etc. Had that happened, it would've been especially galling to be eliminated while most of the crowd betting faves advanced.

*** *** *** Of note today...8th Race: as previously stated, turf rail out 12 feet(website incorrectly posted normal placement)...Field kind of weak quality-wise. If you wonder why Bravo on the winner disputed the pace: the sod here can get a bit firm at times, and this is exacerbated when running over the nice, unused section of the course(w/ rail placement significantly out)... Bravo was just taking advantage of this-- although I as the owner or trainer would've preferrered to see the horse take back a smidgen. Photo-loser DeCarlo was sharp also in keeping the leaders within range.

*** *** ***

Contrast that mostly Older Mare Allowance times: 23.66 - 46.78 - 1:09.85 - 1:34.05 - 1:40.12 WITH earlier 6th Race mostly 3YO Filly Maiden Claimer's: 23.04 - 45.63 - 1:09.54 - 1:34.04 - 1:40.35 ... Not just the runaway filly winner ran a faster early pace, but as well the next 3/4 back of her. *** We would mark down not just the winner, but the first 3 fillies for watching: the second-place finisher did all she could from so far back, ticking off her finishing furlongs in 12 flat...And the show horse held on fairly well while tracking the torrid pace: she actually middle-moved averaging less than 11 & 4/5.

CONTEST TECHNICAL GLITCH & RANT CONTINUATION

Everyone gets a free pass tomorrow, BUT what is more troublesome is Sunday races not up: a look at the overnights reveals why-- MTH entries are closing very late because they're having trouble filling fields: http://www.monmouthpark.com/overnights_extras.asp?racedate=6/3/2007 *** FYI Turf Rail Placement is incorrect, as posted onsite. Today's was 12 feet out, not 0.

Survivor RANT

It's now Friday morning, and races are not up for tomorrow or Sunday...they all shoulda been up as early as Wednesday & as late as yesterday: Thursday. Maybe Monmouth, which suffers from a dearth of horses at times, allows a very late entry time in order to fill fields. Then again, Memorial Weekend races for all days including Monday, were up way in advance.... HHMMMM, EHHHH........what're ya gonna do?!? *** EDIT 1: Picks for Friday stand-- no changes. *** EDIT 2: Friday racing started & still no card up for weekend, not even tomorrow's. Every cloud has a silver lining though: we'll take as a tiny positive that this may cause extra eliminations(contestants failing to sign up to make picks for the card).

RE TRADITIONAL INVESTMENTS:

Soon we'll put up some moves. Everything's fair game btw: options, forex, commodities... long/short, RE, business opportunities, banking & credit cards. Our main goals are to eventually start a Diversified Hedge Fund, & eventually an 'international' Foundation. On the personal side our goal is the traditional Tithing, BUT in 'reverse': we will disburse 90% of our income while keeping 10%. And someday we will be President(more than one country in fact) & UN Secretary General-- these are not goals actually: they're FACTS.

DAY FOUR- FRIDAY JUNE 1

RACE 4

Lousy field-- look for a surprise win by someone who has faced a fast pace last(at least two or more races in a row-- you want to confirm both the legitimacy of the fig(s) and demand a semblance of fitness), yet faded / been outrun by quite a bit at the end: today they may hold on for two reasons...vaunted MTH speed bias & no one here puts up decent closing numbers(vs. a better than average pace of race that is)...

*** Contenders in this category: 1/4/7, although the pace looks to be highly contested.

*** We nevertheless are not ready to risk on a win or out-of-the-money animal(which to boot might be strung out wide while fighting for the lead on this inside-favoring oval), esp. since the next two races are kind of tossups as well: we're looking for somebody semi-fit, not on a downward form cycle--and most importantly, rateable-- we'll take the 3. For now...but as always though-- scratches could change things, in particular here: lighten the projected early pace battle. Another advantage of our choice-- allows us to avoid the likely two co-faves.

*** BTW this race is a tossup-- most entrants here suffer from second- & third-itis + are in questionable form-- if you're inclined to take a shot, nobody is really out of it...there are a couple of longshot possibilities coming out of route races, IFFF either can get lucky: decent break / settle early not too far off the pace / get a good trip(may be able to slip thru, as the other jocks won't likely be focusing on either: 2 & 5.

What we want to avoid at all costs it to ride along with the masses on the vulnerable co-faves:

6: jock has 0 wins, 1 second from 22 Monmouth starts / horse has raced once in '07, once in '06... & is now in for a 5K tag after multiple close, in the money finishes in open Allowances / out of the care of its former Hall of Fame trainer / its win % smacks of 2nd-, 3rd-itis.....

***

8: cold trainer / second-itis record(esp. when you glance at '06, '07, Mth, 6f columns) & winless in '06 & '07 / + its last race was deceptively easy: it's entrymate ran interference for it on the lead, keeping other pace contesters at bay; then it got a breather around the final turn & early stretch, but still gave up the lead, while earning a sub-par fig that likely won''t be enough to beat this field.

Race 7

Tossup, depending on who's ready to run(is on the juice) today:

*** 2: HAS TO pair up either 2nd or 10th race back to have a chance...pluses-- trainer has high win % from few starters & is not high-profile / won't attract undue parimutuel interest, jock is very capable. Not probable, but there are worse bets.

*** 3: as with above, MUST be ready to toss out its last fig & pair up previous one. Unfortunately, contrary to the 2, it'll be fighting for favoritism.

*** 4: we're counting on the Dutrow 'magic' here....yes, the layoff & price drop might give one pause-- but luring Castro aboard + today's easier class level(considerably lower than appears on paper btw) balance things out: this horse, if it finishes well here, may turn out to be a typical Dutrow win-while-rising-in-class-several-times-in-a-row...won't get a huge price, but this race won't likely see a big-price winner, not with 3-4 co-faves.

*** 5: HAS to run a career top fig just to contend here-- possible but not probable...& it's not sporting longshot ML odds.

*** 6: possible IFFFF first fraction is not too hot...nonwithstanding, it sports a coupla ifs/negs... jock's subpar numbers / debut over this oval / non-longshot ML odds...

*** 7: ML fave & Bravo-- if everything not sure/perfect, then this is one to avoid at all costs... It's the obvious horse to beat: this gelding looks as if it recently hit a late growth spurt(or, if you're a conspiracy theorist: suspiciously improved greatly & immediately fig-wise for its new trainer), BUT its last number was disappointing-- worse than its previous three(alhough still good enough to best these IF it does not continue downward)...if you feel it was due to the slightly-longer route distance, then you've got a play-- although at short odds. It does seem to perform better when laying a bit off the front, but here may have to set the pace-- although that may not be so bad: except for the 6, it may have the lead all to its own on this speed-friendly oval.

*** 1: does not look like it belongs in here AT ALL-- NONE of its lifetime figs make it a win contender here + its subpar-record trainer just does not win off the layoff to boot.

We'll take a bit of a risk & avoid the obvious crowd choice, risky because our choice is not a lock by any means: its debuting over an oval that does not favor at all its historical running style....but maybe Dutrow juice will allow it to lay much closer early.

Race 8

ONLY TWO entrants class up & fit the race conditions here: co-faves 7 & 9. We'll go w/ the latter & avoid Bravo on the likely actual favorite(between the horse being a year older, maybe bouncing 2nd off long layoff & plane, possibly running into traffic trouble again)...

*** Others that 'might' grab a 'minor' piece of the purse(in order of probability): 4/8/10/6/3

*** Low-odds(strongly-favored) entrants that can be absolutely tossed from WIN consideration(Layed at an exchange): 3-- although it might be able to get a lower piece of the purse.

*** IF race goes off-the-turf, 12 has a great chance.

*** Again, this analysis is VERY preliminary / final choices can change depending on other race scratches...not just within the particular race, but also how sure our other contest race choices loom race-day.

*** Good luck, as always.

IN-BETWEEN DATES

Not happy about two things: 1. Every day the standings change after posted...as long as a couple of days afterwards. 2. Races not posted yet for Friday racing, and it just turned Thursday. Races should've been up Tuesday. On the other hand, this may help eliminate more(by missing next contest day).... Ehhh........

DAY THREE- FIRST WEEKEND RECAP

35% eliminated first weekend alone...of those remaining, @ 2/3 are in dire straits: have only cashed the minimum once daily and/or have used up their free pass(missed logging in once) already. Based on performance so far 6-700 total have any chance at all... but the races up to now have been easy...it will only take one / two days of chalk biting dust to reduce total number to under 100-- Though at the present attrition rate, look for this(few contestants left) to occur within the next 2-3 weeks, even if favorites continue coming in. *** We're gladly chugging along in 139th place, $50 off the lead...not a single one of our selections has failed to hit the board. If/when we see a longshot chance, we'll take it...but we may not have to the rest of the way. And we're in decent shape for bonus prizes: one of 45 with one 3 X 3 day so far.... & at 4 wins, only 8 others top us(all tied at 5 each). ***

Race 8

Underlayed(huge understatement) entry finishes 1-2. We had actually noticed its place finisher(darn, we thought our choice actually got the place!)... its last race last year was very solid-- much more so than readily apparent-- but we disliked how it quits when pressured on the lead, and as well its trainer's ice cold stats. Our choice lay back a bit further than we thought it would...all in all we were pleased the first two choices finished off the board.

Race 9

Our odds-on choice much the best...we'd have traded the win for a loss, in order to eliminate beaucoup contestants. Small consolation though: 2nd & 3rd choices(very lukewarm though), one w/ Bravo, finished off the board.

Race 10

Again, we'd've been very happy to see our choice run off the board. Very little in the pp's to recommend top two longshot finishers...esp. the winner. Place horse confirms speed bias(as if that's news) w/ the insane fractions it cut out: 21.54 - 44.08 - 1:08.76 ... Lezcano wisely took back off it by as much as 6 lengths early, and was gaining considerably at the end(bore out badly early stretch into the eventual winner's path-- possibly while switching leads--that probably cost it place, maybe even win), although seemingly nothing was stopping the freight-train winner-- who won despite a hard bump out of the gate. We actually feel sorry for those who backed that winner- only to see it come in at a measly 10-1 odds. *** Good Luck.

DAY THREE- MONDAY MAY 28

Almost 30% / 1000 contestants eliminated first two days..... Another 1000 teeter on the brink of elimination: ½ those already used their free pass, the other ½ have only squeaked by each day with one horse in the money. And things have not gotten difficult yet...all 6 races so far have been fairly easy to dope out. *** The first two races today, 8 & 9, are horrible-- not a single horse can run to par...with no towering standout either; while the meet's top % riders are skipping them for the most part. *** We originally took both Elliot mounts early, but he's only getting 30% 'in the money'.....so, we're audibling to: ***

Race 8

#5- Seems to run well off the layoff + should be advantaged by Monmouth's frontrunning bias...and attracts the best jock of the group by far.

Race 9

We reluctantly took the #4 fave here based on the sizzling connections and potential: third race both off the layoff & as a 3yo. Although it sports the best closing fig, its early numbers are absolutely glacial...but then again, it can't really be faulted because it faced slow paces in all races-- it hasn't been a case where it couldn't keep up with fast early paces. It may not win, but it should be flying late.

Race 10

This race probably presents our safest bet. Although our original choice scratched, other scratches lead us to surmise the #1 may well have its way on the front end...this will be its third race off the layoff & on upward form cycle.

***

Good luck.

DAY TWO In Progress

Race 6:

We did not edit our picks today, leaving them all in as originally submitted. Our contenders finished 2nd & 3rd...we had the latter one, as Pletcher's horse projected to be heavy chalk(& we didn't like what the claiming price drop intimated)-- went from 6/5 to 3/5 to 1/2 in just two late tote flashes, while ours drifted up to 9...we'll take that any day.

***

For clarification purposes-- esp. since we did not signal either as a parimutuel bet-- these were only contest choices: safe picks to finish in the money... as opposed to regular bets that get backed to win.

At Monmouth & this class level in particular the dominant speed usually wins-- & good luck deciphering which one before this race went off. BTW Lezcano did a good job of staying in contact early vs what turned out to be a torrid pace: 21.48 / 43.93 / 56.46

YES, Bravo on a maiden dropdown adding blinkers merited consideration, BUT that was obvious to the masses(or so we figured): he was co-second ML choice + w/ the negatives of the trainer having horrible stats any way you diced them & nothing positive in the lone running line(no show of early speed, no heavy betting action, nothing).

IFFFF we were to take such a flyer, we'd rather've given a shot to similar-profile but higher-ML odds horses: 1(scratched), 4 & 6, even the debuter 3.

***

Bottom Line re Contest Strategy: if we're to take either the ML fave OR Bravo(on one of the top three ML choices), we're going to demand just about everything be right-- since the masses will be all over such beasts.

***

Race 8:

12 is a Lay...should get min. $2.70. Our contest choice not a pari bet: we would prefer to see an extra half-furlong in distance(when backing a closer), smaller-sized field, less opponents making a turf / route debut, either towering or very-rapidly increasing figs...

Basically our contest choice here backs up / complements Race 6's-- between both we have a very good chance of one finishing in the money.

***

Race 10:

Our 5 scratched, so we've been auto-switched to the odds-on 7... Now we hope it finishes off the board, to get more contestants eliminated.

There don't seem to be any money bet opportunities here-- nothing sufficiently-high in odds to Lay-- best thing offered is the 8 @ max. $2.25 payoff...pass.

IFFF we'd had one of our other contenders scratched OR had some heavily-backed horse that could be tossed, we'd take a flyer on an Exacta Box....pass.

***

EDIT:

Nice exacta-- $300+...but would've cost $50 to bet(5 boxed + 1 other underneath them). ..Too bad the fave held on in the show photo: very few elims today-- besides those who didn't log in both yesterday & today.

***

PS Standings update up just after 10:30 PM last night...previously we've seen them up as soon as 6:30....

DAY TWO SUNDAY MAY 27

Race 6: Two contenders here: 7 & 8. Preliminarily, we've selected 8(odds), although 7 seems a more sure pick(re consistency & not lagging back so far early). We'll re-asess after scratches tomorrow. Race 8: Only one fits profile here: 9 Now, fig-wise it's not a standout-- it HAS to continue improving & stay out of trip trouble...Bravo should help with that-- then again, most lemming contestants usually are on Bravo. Parimutuelwise: we might bet him tomorrow IF we don't find a good price Laying someone else...we'll finalize this tomorrow depending on odds. Race 10: Eery replay of yesterday's 10th analysis: Win contenders: 4/5(favor this one)/7/9/10/11...6 in the money possibly, but not Win. PS re Monday: Races look totally inscrutable: none of the contenders can run to par(both pace & final fig-wise) in the first two races...We have to decide between taking a pass or a shot at longshots...slightly leaning towards the former. For now, we took Bailero in the 10th- trainer & jock are absolutely on fire(1A also has a shot...maybe 9 IF it can handle running against the type of early pace projected here. Race basically boils down to which closer/stalker gets the best & most relaxed trip behind the projected sizzling pace), + both Stewart mounts in the earlier two races-- what's he doing riding those high-odds horses....he's pretty good at bringing in $$ horses... NOTE: just realized won't have a choice to pass on the race-- picks can be edited, but there's no way to unselect everything.

For the record re the Preakness:

We skipped the blah race: nothing too sure, little profit w/o being able to completely eliminate(from in the money slots) any of the shorter-priced contenders. Here's a link to some comments i posted before the race: http://leftatthegate.blogspot.com/2007/05/but-steve.html Ehh, not every race is bettable.

DAY ONE- SATURDAY MAY 26

Belated Posting-- we tried making the live Simulcast Challenge-- so couldn't post Survivor analysis pre-race. *** As it turned out, we missed that tournament. *** Here's that analysis...shortened btw. We did go 3 for 3 today, but don't get any ideas we're chalk-eaters. *** We're tied for 8th from 3442 contestants, $3 from the top... but, as we've said before, that means nothing...surviving is the key. *** One fourteenth of the field eliminated today, in spite of two 3/5 winners, BUT...1000+ did not log in to make a pick...& may not again this weekend, thus eliminating them totally. *** Race 8: Allowance races today hold a unique handicapping methodology lesson, per Quinn & Quirin: Look for the stereotypical horse for this class-- young, lightly-raced & improving numbers-wise race to race(hopefully not just one of the three internal race fig segments is improving, but two & possibly all three). Toss out seconditis & pro-maiden candidates, the more races the worse, the older the worse, the more gaps in races/works the worse, the more inept the connections the worse. *** We recommend you scan the pp's and circle your candidates before glancing at any pace/speed/connections figs-- in this day and age we tend to focus too much on the figs accomplished yesterday instead of thinking re what projected number improvement is possible today. Afterwards, you can then utilize the rest of your arsenal to prune out your contenders. *** In this race only two contenders merit consideration, one a likely fave-- the other at a middle price: 6 & 9 Fortuitously, the first one scratched out, leaving us w/ a nice 13+-1 price. We'll also include this horse in our parimutuel show parlay progression for the day. As well, the 10 is worth laying at an exchange-- should get a 30% price. *** Race 9 *** Not much to choose from here. The ML fave is a confirmed frontrunning-quitter...however, he projects to be open lengths in front of the closest speedster...factor in Monmouth's speed bias & we'll take it, hoping for an in the money finish; as the rest are totally uninspiring-- none can run to par for this class, and they're either cheap speed or closing plodders..."none" of the latter are on any kind of significant upward form cycle. *** Race 10 *** Win contenders: 4/5/7/9/10/11...6 might hit the board, but is NOT a win contender. We favor the 5 slightly-- it will be our choice. Those looking to Lay, take whomever's the most-favored among the rest, including the 6. Scratches: 3/4/5/10 We now were left w/ 7/9/11...which is precisely the order in which we fancied them. Likely wouldn't get a great price on the 7, but we felt it the most likely of the rest to hit the board. *** Layers, either 1 or 6 is worth taking-- we'll include a $2.68 price offered on the 6 & include it in our show parlay progression today. *** PS the 7 sure raised our blood pressure today, as we were sitting on a possible 3 for 3 day(a separate bonus prize category): breaks thru the gate pre-start, breaks poorly, circles the field late. *** As mentioned earlier, got shut out of the live contest.

Monmouth Park Survival at the Shore Online Contest updated daily, + Simulcast Series Challenge(when they occur- every 3-5 weeks) + regular bet picks

Survival at the Shore Strategy http://monmouthpark.com/survival/default.asp

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1. "Concentrate on surviving": the contest is meet-long(& likely won't make it to the end this year)!!! It's just too risky to take shots early in the contest-- 3 daily races bring a false sense of security / may lead one to risk taking a shot in one race when one has fairly secure choices in the other two. Secure, schmecure...this is horseracing!!! All it takes is one encountering running trouble + the other one scratching late & transferring one's choice to a perhaps false favorite....now your contest life depends on some longshot flyer. You might get away with this for a day or two or week, but soon enough you'll get your comeuppance. And even when you take a shot, you may find your choice's possible longshot odds shrunk significantly at post time. Take today's action:

"In spite of not one but TWO 3/5 winners" more than 1/14th were eliminated(7.2051%)...that rate, plus days when faves are not so successful, should probably guarantee the meet outlasts the contest...'especially when we additionally factor in all those eliminated during weekends(esp. holidays) & earlier-post days-- today, more than 1000 entrants(just under 1/3) did not sign in!! We hardly think they were availing themselves of the one free pass allowed in this contest right on the very first day.....so count practically all of them out this weekend, add the usual daily lose rate, and we may see 2/3 - 3/4 gone by Monday end.

You can't win this contest if you're not in it at the end-- this year just concentrate on outlasting all. IF we're wrong, and you see with 1-2 weeks remaining that the meet will end up with not all eliminated, then you can start taking some shots. So.....

2. For reasons previously stated, we place much more value on a horse that figures to be around at the end / have a fairly high probability of being in the money, even if underlayed / offered at short-odds and even if others(collectively) as just as likely to contend for the win slot..RATHER than some overlayed hit or miss longshot that is just as likely to win as to finish off the board. HOWEVER....

3. We scrutinize the first three morning line choices, esp. all projected heavy favorites ad nauseam and demand no weaknesses. All competing jocks will be fixated on stopping the favorite, or at least not allowing it an easy trip, and more importantly-- only when faves go down do significant numbers of contestants fall by the wayside. The only advisable- nay, obligatory time to take a shot-- is in the face of vulnerable favorites...say, when no one in a race projects to post a pace & final time par number.

4. Submit picks early, as soon as advance entries posted!!! You can always edit them at any time until 30 min. to first post. If you put it off until you finish some other project, something else will come up, then you'll wake up late, the internet connection will flummox, your computer will act up....Murphy's Law.

Our Simulcast Series Challenge Strategy: http://monmouthpark.com/ssc.asp

Most are in a Live Bankroll w/p/s format, 10 mandatory bets(no max.) each for min. a tenth of the 'starting' bankroll...2 entries allowed, top finishers get Ntra & World Series berths...keep your live winnings in addition to substantial cash prizes.

This is our favorite tournament format-- most closely resembles real life.

We want to utilize a different approach though-- parlaying w/ in the money.

1. Entry one is a 100% mostly-Show parlay, w/ some tweaks along the way: entire bankroll is parlayed from the first bet until it grows to 6-12 times starting size, depending on frequency & $ size of longshots at contest tracks... thereafter, min. flat bets are made to satisfy contest requirements. Live odds are scrutinized in all remaining contest races and saver min. bets are placed on any live longshots.

2. Entry two is ditto above but only @ 50%: half the bankroll is bet initially, those winnings added to un-bet money, halved again, then on to the next bet, and so forth and so on...in other words, this progression allows for one loss after each win.

3. Bets are usually for Show, sometimes Place based on field size & projected payoffs. How we determine potential payoff?

4. Calculate based on your horse finishing in the money, then take from the rest of the field the top 3 based on pool size & drop number two from that group. That is a fairly realistic result: not ALL top 3 choices will finish in the money, while still realistically projecting the top fave to hit the board...gravy time if it does not.

5. Early in the contest, when our expected price is under $4.00, the entire bet goes to Show(or Place), but if the win odds are 7/2 or greater, then 2/3 will go to show, 1/3 to win. When the expected price is over $4 we tend to forego Win until its payoff nears $20.

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Top prize eligibility usually requires growing starting bankroll 4 to 10 times...in the money / grabbing one of the usually four national championship berths at stake should be accomplished somewhere between 4 to 6 times.

If starting bankrolls are $100 when say, a 25 / 35-1 longshot comes in, figure more than one person hit it with $10 on the nose....and in that group some will additionally have another winning $10 bet on some middle-priced winner + another $10 on some slightly-overlayed fave...for a total bankroll of @ 450-500.... so one would need to get the bankroll progression to about 6X starting size, then finish requirements off with $10 bets the rest of the way, esp. on the nose of any potential longshot contenders.

If two such longshots come in, figure one or two folks at least, will have both.

Three or more, count on multiple folks having all but one...so now you need 10-12 times starting size.

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Why don't we go for longshots ourselves? It's a lottery..some races will have multiple live longshots, so the contest becomes a glorified dart tournament... plus we feel we can handicap well. Additionally, it's real money, not play money at stake...taking wild shots with play money & ideally low entry fees is not as costly as when one gets to keep all accumulated winnings.

PS This last contest's format is slightly changed-- only win / place allowed. Our altered strategy here is 50% progression in a 2/1 - place/win format.

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Parimutuel Bets

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During the course we may find bettable opportunities at this or any other track-- we will post as we find them...they may run the gamut from exotic betting to Laying(betting to lose at an Exchange).

Day's Wrap Up

Kentucky Derby

We weren't overly impressed with anyone before this race, and the slow final time bore this out...how very pedestrian & ho-hum this year's 3yo crop is.

(It's one of the reasons we only took a flyer bet in the Superfecta pool(BTW nice payoff w/ the fave on top, co-fave third, fourth-fave second, & the fourth-place finisher not that much of a longshot at 28-1... 29K+. Almost $9 million bet into this pool--that's what allowing 20 separate betting interests w/ no coupled entry / field will do for you!),

Although the race looked promising when 22-4/5 & 46(actually was 46-1/5+ but only 46 was flashed onscreen) was hung up early...they all backed off Hard Spun and he throttled the pace down considerably: the 6F & 1M splits were fairly subpar.

Besides the winner, no one else did any real running at the end except for the 4th place finisher- who actually made up ground on the winner after having to swing out 10 wide turning for home.

***

Credit should still be given to the winning horse and connections though:

***

Jockey: Calvin "Borail" Borel turned in the stereotypical ground-saving ride he's become known for. This has been a sort of breakthrough year so far for this 20+ year veteran...he's been riding with extreme, obvious confidence: at the recent Keeneland meet he brought in some longshots and turned in some masterful rides on the Turf particularly, and these past few days at Churchill he's been on a zone.

Here in the Derby, he did crowd a horse or two when he cut over to the rail early and in the stretch, but those are slight indiscretions typically both unavoidable and forgiven due to the huge size of the field. The only thing we'd critique about the ride occurred very late:

excessive whipping at the end with the outcome kinda in the bag, as well as premature and overly-excited celebration just before the wire-- we briefly worried he'd fall off.

***

Trainer: Carl Naftzger broke the 2y0 Breeders Cup winner / 2yo champ hex while doing it his way--with only 2 prep races this year. Actually, I believe the latter contributed greatly to breaking the hex: horses get so much in steroids- to say nothing of antiobiotics & other medicines- to withstand the rigors of racing / serious training and help to heal expected minor injuries and illnesses. What this does to the typical precocious 2yo is stunt its growth and make it too heavy: bone plates fuse, virtually stopping vertical growth, while piling on extra bone & muscle. The resultant body type is more suited to sprints than to marathons-- at the same time its 2yo lightly-raced counterparts get a chance to grow up in more unimpeded fashion / end up taller by following year. Who would you favor to win the Boston Marathon--somebody muscular but short or someone taller, longer-legged, leaner?

Naftzger withstood all criticism and stuck to his game plan...he also demonstrated how much of a stand-up guy he is by telling jockey Borel early that the mount would remain his-- despite getting calls from just about every top-name jockey's agent.

***

Horse: Street Sense also deserves kudos for its athleticness: although he lags back early, he has quick acceleration & can make multiple moves in a race.

And his winning margin was deceivingly small-- the place horse was able to slow the pace down the backstretch in uncontested mode; had he been pressed, and thus finished out of the money-- Street Sense's winning margin would be 8+ lengths...maybe more with the tiring pacesetters causing extra traffic problems late.

So barring injury, unless someone very good is waiting in the sidelines and/or an extreme speed bias pops up at Pimlico or Belmont, Street Sense has an excellent chance to sweep the Triple Crown.

***

On a different note, most of the commentators / announcers for the Derby need to go:

Mike Battaglia, Tom Durkin, Tom Hammond, Bob Neumeier, and Kenny Rice have for years regaled us with their inane banter and interviews, along with useless MOTO analysis and "insights". This year's telecast sunk to new lows past their already-low standards, with too many examples to waste time actually having to type out here-- don't know how some past interviewee hasn't bitch-slapped one of them already.

They resemble a casting of Tatoo, Grandpa Munster, Mister Rogers, Lenny, Squiggy, and Pee Wee Herman.

We can just picture these "ignorant sluts" to paraphrase SNL, waking up every morning feeling so witty and insightful... so unexpendable in their line of work...puleeze!

If the commentary and interviewing is going to be so useless while performed by such unattractive & dull characters-- heck, the governor of Kentucky came off much wittier and entertaining-- you might as well substitute the Beulah Twins.

We can think of so many worthwhile substitutes-- how about some pedigree & form/insider insights with say, Lauren Stich, Joe Takach, Jan Rushton...how about some expert fig, pace, structured bets & handicapping commentary from say, Ernie Dahlman, Jim Cramer, Dave Schwartz, Ken Massa, etc.

And if not substitute entirely, at the very least they each can be interviewed / given a short segment to present.

***

DELAHOYA-MAYWEATHER

***

Fight didn't live up to its hype-- but that specter always hung in the balance coming in: what with Mayweather's moving up two classes, brittle hands, size disadvantage, but speed & age advantage...he could turn the fight boring and ugly.

ALL the announcers & commentarists here were very disingenous at the end, proclaiming the fans got their money's worth-- while we wouldn't exactly rate it a flop, it certainly didn't match the hype.

***

Mayweather: deserves the biggest knocks here...after so much running at the mouth he did very little to show how "great" he supposedly was.

***

Delahoya: still relies too much on his left, he needs to bang / even lead with that good right he has. And his jab almost disappeared for this fight-- he threw it infrequently early: when he did it worked, and he stopped throwing it altogether the last 4/5 rounds.

Apart from that he does get high marks for his blocking punches / defense(he had to crouch down & lunge / chase his more elusive opponent, thus leaving himself more vulnerable in the process) and conditioning / preparation / strategy(vis a vis being at a speed disadvantage).

We feel he needed someone more authoritarian in his corner-- a Dundee, Steward, Mayweather Sr. to point out--nee scream out to jab more. Now Roach did keep pointing that out, but in too soft / calm of a tone. Maybe Roach was more worried about having Delahoya conserve energy for late, for DLH was very tense from the get go. Mayweather, in stark contrast, was way too relaxed at all times-- and it showed in his lackluster effort.

***

As far as our bet, we thought we had lost it late-- that DelaHoya would get the decision...had he just jabbed even a little bit in the later rounds, instead of looking for one big opening, he likely would've got the nod.