World record holder One Hot Wish will scratch out, + we're not too crazy about its remaining entrymate(even though kind of highly-regarded)... therefore race is wide open(even the maidens have a chance)-- the only sure eliminations are I Dig Her & Warren's Appeal.
We will single anything firmly entrenched beyond cap level... so considerably over 35-1(we want to avoid late action lowering odds to 20-1 or below). Otherwise, if both halves of #1 entry stay in, we may take them in the money.
Win Contenders w/ ML odds:
1A: 5
2: 8
7:8
9:8
A lot will depend here on which jock best understands the surface winning profile(closing)... plus, any of these horses is just as likely to finish off the board as to take the whole thing.
1A: Has been facing much better, can the inconsistent Blanc do the job? Won't get great odds, w/ Frankel training...
2: Throw out its initial try in this continent....However, it will have to loop the field from that post, + Migliore tends to ride forwardly-placed: a further negative....
7: Carries the best jock of all these....who's been riding well lately. Eligible to improve the most as the only 3yo...
8: Not crazy about the jock...although should consequently carry the largest odds....If able to duplicate last race's running style............
We doubt any of these will be let go at 25+ to 1.... We'll wind up either backing the 7 in the money, OR win dutching any offered at sufficiently-large odds...we'll try to post actual contest selection later.
We didn't get a chance to post anything here before the race went off.
FYI To our handicapping service clients we released 1/2/6/7 as win contenders, recommending an exacta box, which hit. (Race results: 2/1/3/7/8/4/6/10/5)
As far as the contest, we were on the longshot 6, who loomed boldly and then hung. Both 6 & 7 may have been too close to early pace... even though it was extremely dwadling-- it looks like the way to win this year(at this short route distance) is to lay way back, then make a move late. In previous times, early speed has given a good account of itself at this exact distance-- but in all divisions of this Oceanside, winners came from the back of the field & their final quarters ranged in the neighborhood of 22 / 22 & 2....to boot the slowest closing fraction was put up while overcoming traffic issues.
For the record, Victor Espinoza on the winner, gave a heady ride...overcoming tons of traffic trouble(which he may have caused himself by uncharacteristically not taking the overland route, as he's traditionally been wont to do).
Requisites for winning:
1. You must think ahead & look at the big picture / NOT get caught up in insignificant day to day standings ranks & moves...more on this further down the page.
2. You MUST catch longshots!!!!! Particularly cap horses- 35+-1..... There will be from one or two to as many as three or four 25+-1 odds winners this meet-- you must NOT let more than one of those get away from you to have any shot at making the top 100, which is really only HALF the battle!
The other half? Well, if you succeed in accomplishing that...with as many as eight thousand other contestants to deal with-- most of whom realize the importance of shooting for price, there will be a core group of anywhere from 50 to 200 that will have matched you-- you will need to have collected other smaller prices along the way for tiebreaking purposes.
3. Your 'biggest challenge' will be to determine for EACH race if there is any likely, standout winner @ whatever price... & whether any longshots have any legitimate chance. With 43 racing dates available, IF you play longshots willy-nilly: 40+ days of losing stabs offset the mutuels of two longshot winners. You will need also to collect lesser payoffs, and this can be accomplished one of a couple of ways:
win dutching, show betting, etc., depending on how many legitimate win contenders you're left with... and as well their odds. If say, you have an odds-on lock, you might back him for place or show... if you're left with 2-3 contenders, you either should back the longest-odds for place or show OR win-dutch all three: your object is to collect something(that will move you ahead of those that WILL be on those same long-priced winners later on in the contest... ).
Why do we not recommend win plays on lesser odds-horses? Odds as high up as the teens are not worth it: you'll be lucky if you can hit more than 1 in 10 winners here-- you're much better off collecting lesser prices at a higher rate: little by little you may be able to accumulate enough lesser daily winnings to equal one longshot winner's worth of mutuels; and "more importantly"-- anyone you fall temporarily behind(who had a win bet on that lesser-odds horse) is NOT a contest threat... they will eventually fall by the wayside: as they are employing an incorrect strategy. You MUST be considerably in the black on all your other non-longshot plays.
4. Play every day.
5. Pre-select something as early as the night before....you can bet & edit your picks right up until 'close' to post time. Play close attention to their close-off time, which they will adjust during the day to account for delays in previous races, BUT-- their running clock onsite can be a bit behind. Anyhow, you won't really need to cut things that close: odds must be over 20 to warrant a lone win bet, otherwise..... IF you do get shut out before post time for any reason, you can email your pick to miles and/or mary(look up their addresses onsite and add them to your contacts):
have your email client already-opened, filled w/ your pick, & addressed to them before making your pick, just in case.... one click will quickly do: if you have to start opening your email client, searching for their contact addresses, typing out your message, sending it(while hoping your connection does not suffer any slowdowns)... then you're at their mercy when deciding if your message arrived before post time(and remember, their clocks are a bit behind....which they refuse to acknkowledge). BTW their phone #'s are not direct-- you must wait until operator connects you through... gets a hold of them....
Make a choice early...then you can always edit it closer to post time.
6. Until proven otherwise, assume a closers' bias at all surfaces and distances...except for maybe the 2yo dashes.
7. Be willing to forgive a recent subpar race-- esp. if distanced / not pushed late, yet given a strong gallop out...and if now going off at large odds-- most such examples were likely pointing for this meet.
8. Physicality should play a huge role this year:
Race day-- who looks like they do & don't enjoy the new surface and surroundings...
