Saturday, June 7, 2008

2008 Triple Crown Thoughts

FYI we parlayed our Kentucky Derby winnings(Place bet on Big Brown) into a place bet on our hero in the Preakness. BTW Those who followed our exotics betting advice on the Derby, had the Superfecta. If you flip-flop the actual second & third place finishers, the Place payoff would've been much, much larger... but hey, that's racing luck.

We will NOT bet this Belmont because we are rooting against the favorite. Even if we weren''t, the only investment that would make sense would be to resell Belmont Stakes seats-- some well into 5 figures.

We are not rooting for this winner for many reasons:

 

1. Big Brown's feet problems, passed on from his father, are bad for the breed, in particular here in North America; and you can be fairly certain his syndication example just would not occur in another major racing  jurisdiction like say, England... but since money rules here...

2. The bad example + continuation of amoral trend set by his connections-- from one of the principals trying to escape a cloudy past of illegal investment shenanigans, to the trainer completing a Triple Crown trifecta of winning trainers having endured suspensions for illegal medications... again: you can be fairly certain that in another jurisdiction like say, England or Hong Kong both the owner and the trainer would NOT be involved in the Triple Crown or in racing altogether.
But hey, God bless America-- land where the Clintons not only never served a day in prison, but actually came within a whisker of running the country again-- this in spite of running their vitriol mouth and inventing more and more lies continuously... something Big Brown's trainer is mimicking as well.

 

We don't know about you, but we "are thoroughly disgusted" by Big Brown's owners and trainer-- from their thug security to their classless comments criticizing other connections to their illegal medication problems(no matter who the trainer has been)-- we can't think of a more undeserving & ego-centric bunch. And actually, if they had shown some class & courtesy towards others, we wouldn't be writing this article: but enough's enough.

 

We are counting on Big Brown to not win due to several main weaknesses:

1. The post-- likely the others will keep it boxed in. This is very possible, especially in light of his Jockey's comments that he will be very mindful of conserving energy & not trying to spurt away from the field(like in his last failed Triple Crown bid).

2. The cracked foot + overall conditioning: everyone's been raving about his last workout, but we totally disagree:

we feel he didn't handle the track all that well + he seemed to be laboring towards the end of the workout and as well the post-work pullup was very mediocre.

3. Pedigree limitation skewing towards sprints & short routes.

4. The weather-- today is the first real muggy summer day of the season-- and you just never know who it will affect more. Joe Takach devotees should have a betting edge in this race.

 

 

Good luck.