ANOTHER VALUE LESSON

THIS ONE COMES FROM HORSERACING, although it applies universally.

THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH PASSING UP A BET…ESP. WHEN THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL.

Do NOT fall into the trap that you MUST dope out and bet an inscrutable event—esp. one that does not offer a high rate hit and/or value.
There are many reasons or excuses for this—none valid:

1. It’s the first / only / feature event of the day—how can one start / endure the day like that?

2. My punk friends are betting it—and will surely be crowing afterwards(those that do win that is).

Say you’re gonna watch TV with some of your punk friends…and they’re in the mood for steak--so you all head to the supermarket. Once there, you go to the meat section; but on this day all the meat looks kinda old—perhaps spoiled…and to make matters worse, they’re not running any of their usual price specials.
Do you think if you offer to buy something else or even leave empty-handed you’re friends will berate you with something like: “Aww, don’t be cheap--we should buy some anyway…we have cast iron stomachs!”? Maybe, if they’re morons—but in such a case you wouldn’t have any misgiving with getting something else(race / game / sport) or even going to another market(track / channel)… even not eating(betting) would be a very viable alternative.

So why should wagering & protecting your hard-earned money be any different? Anyway, the moron who pressured you into eating that spoiled steak(bad bet) is likely not going to offer to pickup your hospital bill(refund your lost bet).

Another way to look at it—when you look back on your wagering records***—even if you’re in the black overall(although that misses the point)…dollars to doughnuts you have won less than half of your total bets or sessions / days. Try this this three-part exercise:

A. Draw a line through ‘all large / on tilt ‘ losses and recalculate bottom line.

B. Repeat above, only do so for all large wins instead.

C. Re-calculate with both previous steps “combined”.

Therefore, we can conclude & see how eliminating losses & bets that were not going to pay a high return anyway is so crucial.

*** If you don’t keep records you are a total Mickey Mouse who doesn’t deserve to hold on to his money—at least, that what you’d think of your personal broker or say acquaintance who just opened a new business… if they told you they don’t keep records…but they think they’re: up a little bit / about even / losing / whatever….. why should betting your hard-earned money be any different?

The more you treat your wagering like a legitimate business, the more successfull you will be at it.
The very players / trainers /teams you wager on live or die by stats—you likely base your betting decisions on such—yet you don’t “stat yourself”???

 

What’s that, you say? You win way more than half your bets? Well then, you’re a pro…and already keeping records….thus, this advice doesn’t apply to you. What? You still insist you are up yet don’t keep records? Would you accept such a statement from the trainer of your horse / manager of your investments /team / business???

 

This is an analysis for Aqueduct’s First Race on Thursday November 13, 2008…that we neglected to post in time. BTW the race ran to a tee per our analysis, but that is not the point.

Morning Lines listed with saddlecloth #

LIKELY WINNER:

#6[3-1] Used to a Pace of Race many lengths faster than any of his foes. Could take them wire to wire—although that’s not a slam dunk—the long sprint distance & wet weather may play a negative role; as well, a couple of foes were compromised at the start of their debuts and ran with a closing style—meaning we can’t tell for sure that they’re not frontrunners in reality.

#4[2-1] Most eligible to win if above one tires late.

 

POSSIBLE WINNER / IN THE MONEY CONTENDER:

#5[8-1] Although it’s the contender seemingly offering the best value, it’s not a highly probable win candidate—the top two would BOTH have to falter. It’s running style though, gives it a chance to get a lower slot, as it’s the one most eligibile to keep the top one in close attendance. It’s Achilles Heel though, is that its final time suffers the faster it runs early.

#2[[9/5] Has a chance IF it can post an effort similar to its debut—however, it’s dead-closing style puts it at a disadvantage here(vs a possible lukewarm pace). As well, it will likely offer ZERO VALUE as ML fave.

 

TOSSOUTS

The rest don’t even stand a reasonable chance for the show spot, let alone….

 

RECOMMENDATION

If post time odds follow the Morning Line, this race would be a perfect candidate for passing. The ONLY reason for betting would be if one had live $$ contenders in the next leg of the Daily Double to hook with the top 2/3 here:

1. Favorites are the main contenders, “no longshot is a contender”….to boot, it’s only a 7 horse field, so even the higher-ML contender will likely be offered at much lesser odds.

2. No choice is a slam dunk for two main reasons: questions re handling wet surface, questions re pace duel / running position for a couple of these.

3.  Small projected payoff.