HAWTHORNE SURVIVOR 2nd DAY SAT. NOV. 14

Eliminated….lousy card…esp. on a weekend.

PLAYERS STILL IN:  984985(one added early second day) of 28272828(one added halfway thru first day card)

Top 10 Contest Favorites

22.81% selected #06 Smoke N Magic in race 1 took win photo

11.29% selected #03 Michael's Dreamin' in race 1 lost win photo

10.42% selected #02 Supply Guy in race 4

9.98% selected #01 Miss Ann H in race 3

7.57% selected #07 Boots Are Walking in race 4

6.47% selected #01 Let's Go Sid in race 9

5.59% selected #05 Rose Fever in race 3

3.18% selected #05 Wild Expectations in race 10

2.63% selected #05 Big Vic in race 1 eliminated, never threatened

2.52% selected #10 Flirtin' With Fire in race 5

2.41% selected #08 Schleprock in race 2

Almost 100 didn’t sign in /  eliminated before racing even starts today. Over 80% of selections ride on first half of the card. It’s not bad to see individual races with 2/3/4 entries among the most popular…hard to get ALL of them to finish in the money…only takes one other contender to hit the board….  Today will be a day where most pass OR get eliminated…. we think the latter may occur.
Our selectee, in the second race, did not garner much attention today. Opens up as 9/2 lukewarm second fave. First race running is kind of encouraging though: two duelers drew away and won by country mile, the outside one winning the photo…although the fractions could’ve  been a bit faster.

RACE 1

fyi  This likely won’t be a contest race for us—in spite of the small field size.

WIN CONTENDERS

6—the likeliest to finish in the money…it’s not the ML fave for nothing: versatile running style  combined with outside post will allow placing in strategic running position. We dislike selecting ML fave though, unless it’s a real slam dunk.

1—can take it all IIFFF three things occur: A. equals highest fig showing in the pp’s B. gets a favorable inside trip C. the drying out strip does not develp a negative rail bias.

3-- by virtue of being able to attend the early pace, could speed pop this bunch of closers.

The rest are fairly evenly-matched fig-wise:

4—may be the best of the rest.

 

RACE 2

Tossup / chaos race—no one can run to par, the fave takes a suspicious drop off a layoff, the debuters look very underwhelming.

1— Lineage leans toward route distances and barn sports subpar record—even worse, they do NOT win with debuters.

1a- Drop from straight maiden, new connections & blinkers on seems encouraging…although barn does NOT win off the layoff.

5— Decent works…although connections records underwhelming & pedigree runs to route distances. Will offer price value though….

9— Some good works. Don’t get the short ML price though: breeding says route & the connections have poor records…as well this barn does NOT win with debuters.

8— Lays over this field on paper…BUT…very, very suspicious layoff + drop into claiming ranks.

2— 2nd ML fave off such a horrendous last race collapse…accompanied by such mediocre jockey & trainer? Please…….

3— Can get a lower share…price not bad…

4— Win contender with a prompt start, better trip & expected improvement. Wish a better rider hopped aboard though…

7— Poor debut effort along with poor works… Asmussen could have this horse properly spotted though….could win or finish last….at least will offer decent odds..

6— Lays over this field early numbers wise…contender for contest selection.

RACE 7

None of the experienced runners can run to par, but unlike the 2nd race, the debuters look promising…and if none come through, there are some live longshots among the others. As well any of the trio of horses with only one race under their belt cannot be summarily dismissed.

 

Entry— Mixed signals. 1 could always surprise, off that outrun debut effort. 1a looks like a promising debuter & the trainer historically does very well at this oval—however, his record with debuters is not that overwhelming… & none of his past wins have been accomplished utilizing this jock…who sports a horrible record.

3— Looks a bit underwhelming….could surprise at a price….

4— Looks very live… surprised ML is so high…do NOT overlook.

9— Very, very live debuter running for very able connections.

5, 6, 10— This trio of second-time starters cannot be dismissed just off that fact alone. 6 offers poor value, though, as ML fave…while 10 should offer a great price….

11— Sports top number….although not by a lot. Should offer a wonderful price.

7— Looks best of rest….won’t offer a bad price either..

 

We’re going with #6 in second race….not sure by any means: debuters have a chance…if one or two fires + if one or two of those with only one start + if the suspicious dropper airs we could wind up out of the money. We figure though, that today the track wil favor speed + possibly the middle of the course…exactly the attributes of our selection; as long as this doesn’t turn into a surprise multi-horse pace duel. We’ll see….