Excluding the two title bouts, these fights were setups / positioning for future title fights for highly-regarded prospects or name veterans. They were fed opponents physically smaller(a couple moving up in weight in fact), slower & with very limited skills.
This fight day again demonstrated why boxing is so in trouble vis a vis MMA: in order to watch all these fights, a boxing fan—depending on geographic location—paid two or three times to watch them(if he/she was even lucky enough to have them offered in his/her location)…only to receive a bunch of very obvious mismatches & questionable judges’s decisions.
But again, apart from crappy internet feeds, most worldwide fans were not able to watch one of these cards, let alone all of them.
Promoters and broadcast networks complain of poor ratings for some of these cards—but how do they expect to build fan base and individual boxers’ names if folks can’t watch them?
Boxing promoters & network executives need to put themselves in a fan’s shoes: pay an exorbitant price, then pray that none of the outcomes are fixed/predetermined, all the bouts are not boring mismatches, all the combatants have taken their opponent seriously & trained properly.
On a separate note—we’ve always been impressed by how orderly & well-behaved German society is usually—and yesterday was a perfect example almost to the point of boredom:
the audience was very well-mannered and outdone by the fighters themselves, who respectfully acknowledged referee instructions, admonitions and commands. Contrast that to some of the boorish excesses we’ve been subjected to in this side of the pond: fans throwing full beer bottles into the ring, ring melees, referees attacked by fans & fighters… Just the way a referee is in total control of a fight overseas contrasts so greatly to our fights—where the fighters usually do as they please anyway—despite repeated referee admonition.
3:00PM (EST) Cruiserweight 12 rounds - Jako-Arena, Bamberg, Bayern, Germany - ARD
Otis Griffin +755 Over 9½ -130
Enad Licina -1175 Under 9½ +110
Griffin valiantly tried early, but he was really outclassed— & had suffered two KO’s in previous three fights.
4:00PM (EST) Heavyweight 10 rounds - York Hall, Bethnal Green, London, United Kingdom
Albert Sosnowski +575 Over 6½ +105
Danny Williams -850 Under 6½ –125
Overhyped Williams needs to retire—age has brought on diminished reflexes, speed & chin.
4:00PM (EST) Middleweight 12 rounds - Jako-Arena, Bamberg, Bayern, Germany - PPV
Raul Marquez +850 Over 8½ -130
Arthur Abraham -1250 Under 8½ +110
Marquez totally overmatched here—much smaller & now pushing 40…. time to hang ‘em up(title contention-wise).
9:1010:30PM (EST) Light Welterweight 12 rounds - Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York - HBO PPV
Derrick Campos +2000 Over 8½ -130
Dmitriy Salita -4000 Under 8½ +110
Salita qualifies as the least-skilled undefeated boxer today—a must fade against any opponent of quality. He was lucky to escape with a win today against a club fighter of limited size, speed and technical skills. Salita’s defense is absolutely porous, his footwork & body movement are horrendous, and he does not utilize height advantage—in fact, just the opposite, often winding up crouched lower than his considerably shorter opponent… as well he leaves his head exposed a lot and does not keep his hands up high and together.
It’s not that he doesn’t possess the requisite physical attributes—he has very good balance, natural speed, coordination and flexibility—he just chooses to only fight in spurts and only move around at times—in between those times he’s a stationary statue that can be easily steered & trapped.
Questionable judges’ decision scores ran the gamut from giving every single round to Salita to giving Campos the nod in almost half the rounds.
9:459:10PM (EST) Light Welterweight 10 rounds - Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York - HBO PPV
Emanuel Augustus +325 Over 9½ -440
Francisco Figueroa -400 Under 9½ +350
Figueroa is supposedly a hot prospect @20-2, being fed a veteran sparring partner to many, in order to pad his record and set up a contending fight down the road. But he didn’t impress much / show the requisite initiative. At best he won 2 of the 8 rounds, yet got the nod from 2 of the judges, who scored him winning 5 & 6 of the rounds.
10:309:45PM (EST) Welterweight 10 rounds - Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York - HBO PPV
Ernest Johnson +1250
Zab Judah -2750
Actually fell asleep during this fight—Judah won easily…but against a very overmatched & inexperienced foe. Irregardless of inane commentator hype, we believe his best days are behind him…. he should retire. Never known for punching power, age will not suit him like a fine wine.
11:00PM (EST) Light Heavyweight 12 rounds - Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York - HBO PPV
Roy Jones Jr. +240 Over 9½ -340
Joe Calzaghe -280 Under 9½ +280
Jones’ downfall has been his ego—doing it his way w/o a top trainer or conditioner… all obviously crystalized for this fight: his corner looked totally inept & overwhelmed, the fight strategy was wrong…let Calzaghe punch himself out to exhaustion…that has yet to occur(when have we seen Calzaghe slow down late in a fight?)…and only served to facilitate the cut eye & an insurmountable points lead. As well, training-wise Jones should emulate Calzaghe & become a cardio punching machine—a must to counteract the forces of aging. To expect to be awarded rounds by judges on a counterpunching + lesser punch output style—basically on name & past accomplishments—defies logic.
An ominous sign was an interview a couple of days before the fight—where the subject of still needing to lose a bit of weight came up.
We don’t have any lock-type of selection today….only a “LEAN”—the nightcap…instead, it’s more of a value-flyer-fun / watch along with your punk friends kind of day.
Firstly, notice there’re ZERO evenly-regarded matchups out of the seven scheduled above.
Second—we have no clue who most of these fighters are.
Thirdly—bbbuuutttt…… we cannot go wrong blindly betting all underdogs:
A. Take the LEAST underlayed fight—Jones/Calzaghe… even if you fancy Calzaghe a lot, those odds are STILL “way too low to realistically make money in the long run”. You would need to correctly select 8 out of every 10 such matches to break into the black…and 9 out of 10 to make the beginnings of a good profit!!! Conversely—if you dutch and hedge, you can make a profit EVEN “if only one selection wins”… and will likely double your money at least! We recommend round robins of two…if just two selections win, you make a killing.
A. It’s unlikely that ALL 7 heavy favorites win AND/OR that NONE suffer a freak injury AND/OR that NONE get jobbed by the judges.
B. Notice how all but one of the faves are from other continents…where the local talent is supposedly / historically inferior….
C. We don’t know most of these scheduled fighters—but at those generous odds, who cares?
Here’s a suggested course of action:
1. Reserve 9 bet units, one for each fight, plus two spare.
2. Bet 1 on first fight.
3. IF you win, put away your starting 9 units + 1 of guaranteed profit and continue with the remaining 6½ plus onto step 5.
4. In case of loss, bet 1 unit each on the next two fights starting almost simultaneously.
5. If you won, same as step 4.
6. Once the two 4pm fights are over, you should have at least 6 units in hand worst case scenario. Whatever it is, divide into 6 amounts; and bet one portion on the fourth fight listed here.
7. If you won, redistribute winnings in hand among the unbet 5 portions; and bet one of them on the fifth fight.
8. If you lost, continue with one portion on the fifth fight.
9. Notice how, along the way, we have two more portions than the number of fights remaining—this is by design: we want to ensure of having a good amount to bet on the nightcap, where we have a ‘leaning’ opinion.
10. If you won, re-distribute among remaining 4 portions, and bet one on sixth.
11. If you lost, repeat step 8 for the sixth fight.
12. Now bet HALF of everything left on the nightcap: Roy Jones. EXCEPT IN THE CASE OF:
13. You haven’t booked a guaranteed profit + the starting units YET because: you “ lost the very first fight” BUT have won along the way…”book a guaranteed profit” before proceeding to the nightcap.
14. By now, even in worst-case scenario all six prior fights lost, you should have at least 3 units riding @ +240, resulting in a minimum profit of @ 1¼ units.
IIIIFFFFF Roy Jones is in shape & does not fade late, he may be able to control the entire fight—dancing circles around Calzaghe / making him look like a rank amateur… possibly even knocking him out. Conversely, he could also lose convincingly.
IN CONCLUSION
This is a night where we don’t have a strong opinion on anything—and are totally clueless on most—but WILL ‘make a profit’ / have fun watching this with our punk associates. The ONLY way we lose is if ALL the favorites cover / NONE of the underdogs win…and how likely is that?
NOW….this is the first ‘flyer’ bet we have EVER posted here… but still, we feel the probabilities are on our side.
UPDATE INTERMEZZO
One of the first three fights hit….you should now be @ step 6, with @ 12-3/4 units in hand. Keep in mind that 9 of those are your own money—so a little reassessing is in order:
How about putting away your 9 units AND BANK 1 UNIT GUARANTEED PROFIT FOR THE DAY?
The PRO argument for us is because of lack of expert knowledge / sure opinion of the latter 4 fights.
The CON argument would be the chance at a large score, since the odds on our remaining choices are extremely generous.
The MIDDLE ROAD works for us though—there is nothing wrong with hedging. As well, reality dictates banking profits along the way—this is true no matter what the investment vehicle: from art to securities to real estate to whatever….
SO….. we recommend you proceed on to step 6 with your remaining almost 3 units in hand.
You will be able to enjoy watching the remaining fights smug in the knowledge that you have a guaranteed profit even by going 1-6 for the day…. and can make much more with even just one more win.
See you in 3-4 hours… we can continue this constant reassessing after each fight…. as well we can(should) allow the expected highlights + late analysis for each upcoming fight to influence that process.
EPILOGUE
Not bad: we made money even though we lost the rest of the fights, including our Lean. We made money even though we had very little info to go on… and in spite of getting robbed in one of them—the 9:45 fight is a candidate for fix/setup of the year(look for post-commentary on each fight underneath its original listing above).
Now, what facilitated this? Two things:
1. The large odds—as we’ve stated before—blindly betting all +200 and above underdogs in boxing, ufc, horse matchups, etc. throws a profit.
2. Overhyped / underwhelming prospects in three of the bouts(counting the one bad decision and another one lucky enough to escape with the win).
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