Survival at the Shore Wednesday July 16

Intra-Day Commentary--

Race 4: Duel never materialized, though in contrary manner to what we envisioned. Of the potential duelers-- one debuter scratches while Bravo on the other debuter(#4), breaks slowly-- while #1 bumps at the start & then elects to allow the eager 9 the lead all to itself. What bothered us the most though, was the low 5-1 value on our 7. At that price it likely wouldn't've passed our handicapping muster-- at such a price level one starts to 'find extra weaknesses"-- post position, possible slow start, etc... Speaking of, it ran about as well as it could, given a wide trip the entire race.
One consolation given the odds-on fave coming in--  235 out remaining 646 entries are blanked so far. We now hope faves fall the rest of the way; and we have one longshot & one middle price choice remaining for the day.

Real irritated by life preserver info not getting updated yet(9pm)-- notice some blanked contestants with two preservers still. If just the top three/four contestants get eliminated, this contest then becomes totally wide open & up for grabs... this month is VERY crucial. If on the other hand, August finds some of the top contestants with three preservers, then they're gonna be almost impossible to beat.

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Very, very preliminary initial analysis-- we will add to it raceday eve.

We don't have any real Safe In the Money choice selected today, but so be it. We are now trying to make a move up the standings-- if we fall by the wayside so be it-- many contests loom that are much less demanding and carry substantially higher rewards(in addition to juggling regular investing obligations). It's the classic risk & reward dilemma, so if we are to continue making this considerable effort-- we want to do it from at least very good position / odds.

Race 4

Only one horse beats the race par here-- #7, when figure is adjusted for race trouble.  She qualifies as a safe in the money choice-- and as well sports a decent morning line of 8-1... since we are not that impressed with either of the low-odds turf debuters, in spite of attracting top pilots both. Now, this doesn't mean one of the debuters or the pacesetting 1 will not win(if let go alone early), but she should still beat enough of these to at least garner a placing.
Conclusion: there is projectedly very little mutuel value here for most of these. Even our choice #7 is held at a fence-straddling Morning Line of 8-- she can drift in either direction odds-wise. She remains our choice though. IF she scratches, then we will likely select #5.

#7 Final Choice

1. 5/2 - 40 45 48 51% Obviously offers low value. She can ONLY win with a couple scenarios:

a.  The 9 elects not to tangle with her early again(quite possible) and Joe Bravo on #4 allows her an uncontested lead(unlikely).
b. She is actually a closer so good and classy that she found herself battling the slow pace in her debut.

EDIT: its pace figures are subpar, so even though the race & course might be kind to frontrunners... if you wanted to play that angle we would suggest instead one of the debuters. Even if the other frontrunner were to scratch(thus potentially leaving her alone on the lead), we would NOT bet her-- not as the likely odds-on favorite & selectee of likely more than ½ the contestants(by post time).

2. 10 - 1 0 1% No chance.

EDIT: trainer 1 for 26 2nd career Turf race...and 8% on Turf Lifetime. Let's change No Chance status to Slightly Possible. She would need  to show a much stronger closing kick-- connections may try laying a bit further back in order to encourage this.

3. 4 - 6 5 4% Even though she attracts Eddie Castro, there's not a lot to recommend here-- besides trainer Pletcher & sire FuPeg garnering an automatic strong Morning Line:

Turf Debut breeding stats are so-so & as well Pletcher's excellent Win % drops significantly in the Turf debut category. The workouts are too slow, too short to build up any stamina whatsoever, and worse-- have a recent gap. We would guess this race is more a fitness workout.

4. 7/2 - 33 27 24 17% Joe Bravo habitually attracts so many votes... We're not crazy about the Turf debut breeding stats, or the well-spaced out work tab.

5. 20 - 0% Puleeze........... Horse, trainer & jockey ALL need to be put up for a bargain price at the cheapest possible racetrack.

EDIT: let's backtrack here-- this horse has faced much faster early pace...could get brave late(although she HAS to throw a much improved closing fraction). She is now the Bud Longshot. Iffff #7 scratches, she may become our pick.

6. 9/2 - 11 12%  Good closing kick... as well lost 2-3 lengths due to traffic in early stretch of last race... but this horse is just horrendously devoid of early speed. She will have to pray for a perfect threading late trip to have a chance.

EDIT: she has a chance, as do all closers here: whichever gets the best start & cleanest trip will likely be the winner... and she does have a very competent rider aboard. But the odds offer no appeal whatsoever.

7. 8 - 0 3 4 8% An almost ideal contest selection profile: double digit payoff while attracting zilch contestant attention. This horse looks to us as one who only runs well on grass. In her debut, she got bumped out of the gate, then moved up the rail until experiencing heavy traffic blockage the entire length of the stretch. The jockey change to Trujillo is positive: good gate & longshot skills.

8. 10 - 0% Mediocre debut, but one just never knows if connections were just waiting to bear down in second race... although that argument is not supported much by trainer stats: 4 for 42 second career race... 0 for 15 2nd Turf race(only 3 placings total too). The jock is having an abysmal Monmouth meet...

9. 5 - 5 3% No chance-- would have to miraculously show the ability to close. For those of you who frequent exchanges, this may be a good LAY candidate, with that semi-decent Morning Line.

 EDIT: let's also backtrack here-- from no chance to Slightly Possible: if we assume the connections will try to not tangle with #1 early-- then one could also assume one or both debuters would keep #1 honest-- and she would pick up the pieces while laying closeup, then hold off the closers. Not very likely, and her odds preclude selecting her anyhow.

Race 8

Fairly mediocre field... we'll wait until we have adjusted figs & more stats. So far, 2, 3, & maybe 8 seem to have the only realistic win chance. 2 would be a safe choice, while 3 would be more of a longshot & value play with an element of risk.

 EDIT: after adjusted figs and a more in-depth look:

#3 Final Choice

In this race we had to go back to last year for useable pacelines for several of these, as many have had plenty of excuse trips. The race looks like an early tussle between 4, 6 & 7. Of those, according to pace analysis, 4 should quit first-- the other two are about even with a slight edge to 7 if in tip top shape & because it will advantageably track outside the other two; as well its rider is much superior. We expect first place to be taken by one of the closers though-- as for instance, the 2 & 7 have the early number ability to sit just off the pace(or even contest it, thus adding to overall early pressure). The only question for the closers in this race will be one of being in shape AND improving form.

1. 20 - 0% Remove all wet surface pp's, as well as the first couple off extended layoff & the one with the troubled start-- and this horse does not look bad at all... and would have very competitive numbers. We would consider it more if it hadn't been offered for a price(and a very low one at that) last time. Of course it doesn't help to see the abysmal numbers being put up here by both jock and trainer. This horse is not an automatic throwout...it could get a perfect rail skimming, unobstructed trip all race...or not. BUT there are other longshots with more appealing qualities. We'll categorize it as Possible but Unlikely Longshot.

2. 7/2 - 19 22 26% Very, very dangerous-- has a back number to decimate this field...and very able jock. We just don't like that it was offered for a price last time... and worse, its low odds today make it an automatic pass(in light of the question marks especially). BTW that last Turf fig is bogusly high(Bris).

3. 12 - 5% This is our choice-- 3yo has the best chance of taking the leap upwards in form over its older rivals, has a good inside post and is ridden by one of our favorite longshot jockeys. Horse has had many of legitimate excuses in its pp''s that have helped to obscure its form(& thus odds). You won't see 90+-1 again though... and it is worth noting that the trainer has terrible pertinent stats: repeat win: 1 in 21, allowance races: 1 for 11, dirt races: 5% win from last 300. But we wish to ride this young horse's potential, improving form AND high morning line odds. As well too high a number of contestants have selected it, belying its high odds: 5%.... we can not afford to let so many contestants catch a longshot without us.

4. 6 - 4 5% As stated earlier, the most inferior of the early pace contestants...morning line atrociously low 6-1 given its chances.

5. 5 - 1 2 3% How can the ML on this horse be ONLY 5-1? 6yo, lifetime record: 38 2-8-11, @ Monmouth: 21 0-7-6. Trainer-- allowance races: 2% from 51.... has only two total starts in 2008 actually.

6. 5 - 10 9 10% Frontrunner likely will be sandwiched between others early. As well atrocious ML given its actual chances: 5-1

7. 7/2 - 13 16% The best of the early speedsters...with a top jock aboard. Has the numbers to clear early and the ability to press the pace(more likely). May be strung out wide early. Offers zero value as an expected contender for favorite status. Possible, esp. if the closers suffer bad trips / are not in top form. We prefer others at better odds here.

8. 3 - 44 36 31% Our backup choice if #3 scratches. We consider it the best candidate for Safe In the Money Status: it can sit just off the early pace(instead of contesting it) and thus post a much better final number, especially with that superior jockey change. Some doubts remain though: One-- best figure in pp's MUST be duplicated to have a chance. Two-- and very bothersome: last race fig was lengths lower than previous one(according to our figs & in marked opposition to Bris #'s. Three-- quality of past opposition inferior to most here. Still, if in form, it should advantageously be able to track not just the speedsters, but its other closing competitors from that post.

Race 9

Ditto. We'll try to beat the projected  ridiculously-low odds favorite #9 btw. For now, we've selected #4.

 EDIT: after adjusted figs and a more in-depth look:

#4 Final Choice

We "have to" avoid #9: odds-on choice picked by ½ the contestants.... dropping precipitously into a dirt sprint(?) 32 days later w/ no works(as well notice how last year's works are better than this year's).... Bravo off.....

Horrible, horrible race. Since none of the longshots show signs of life, we'll take #4 on 'potential' & closeup early position...in spite of 0 for 2008 jockey-- we'll trust his wily trainer.

 

Good luck. Any further edits tomorrow morning will be in blue color.

Survival at the Shore Daily Methodology

1. Once next day's contest entries are up we immediately make three choices. It really does not matter what they are: whether all consensus choices, faves, longshots, particular post position,  jockey, etc...we 'put anything in "now, before handicapping" EVEN if, like today Sunday, we have a lot of lead time. Anything can happen in life that can cause one to be shut out on race day-- at least we give ourselves a fighting chance with some choice submitted.

2. We jot down the three contest race entries-- with the first two important side-by-side columns listing Morning Line & Survival selection percentage. The latter we will update at each of the following steps. In combination, both factors will usually be the most important determinants of actual selection made-- overriding traditional handicapping. This is because:

A. The posttime favorite inherits scratched choices.

B. Large groups of contestants are eliminated when popular choices fail... we don't want to be affected as well when that occurs.

C. Winning contest selections carry added value, besides the payoff size, "inverse" to how "few" others have picked them-- allowing one to pass / gain the most ground vs more contestants.

D. So that one should zag whenever the public zigs as often as possible.

3. Step 3 is to handicap initially 'utilizing ONLY a racing form, WITHOUT  any adjusted figures-- the provided Bris Ultimate PP's w/ Comments are quite adequate(we use the sister TSN version actually--same difference), except for the figures, which don't make sense quite often-- although they are better than those in the Daily Racing Form.

4. On raceday eve we receive the next day's data from our professional data service.  We now handicap alongside the racing form with this new data, basically adjusted times / comprehensive figures and even more detailed pertinent statistics. This step will either confirm the choices from step 3, or lead us in a different direction. As always, we immediately input the new choices.

5. First thing each morning we manually sync our computer clock-- a useful utility for this is Atomic Clock Sync.

6. By about 5 minutes to 11am on race day, the day's scratches are put up. It will now be crucial to see if missing horses change or affect the race shape-- and edit contest picks accordingly.

7. @5 minutes to 12 the track announcer lists all the day's changes & handicaps the early daily double, finishing up around 12 or so.

8. At 12:05 the handicapping seminar for the card starts-- this is a very useful last chance to glean any unknown tidbits & overlooked details-- Monmouth handicappers are very competent.
As well, any late scratches are announced here "before" being posted elsewhere. FYI the show ends @12:18-- & one needs to get any final contest change in by 12:21. We recommend you refresh the contest page just prior to making any edits-- in the past it has sometimes frozen and/or crashed the browser during confirmation process if  it's been sitting open awhile. Needless to say, one should have the contest page set to remember & autologin your ID & PW.

Survival at the Shore Daily Strategy

Daily strategic MUSTS:

1. Must NOT let any LONGSHOT win without your bet riding on it(at the very least your most hawkish perusal beforehand).
Scour all double-digit ML odds longshots, starting with the largest one first. Classify into one of the following categories:

A. Main contender-- would merit automatic bet in almost all situations...as to be expected, rarely occurs though.
B. Unknown / undeterminable-- merits automatic bet in most situations, as long as you have a safe bet in one other contest race and no other more probable longshot exists.
C. Possible-- is automatic bet again...depending on your required strategy. If out of life preservers, and fairly early in the calendar month, you might require that the other two contest races BOTH have safe choices.
D. Possible but unlikely-- desperation time. Once in a while you may find yourself in a situation where strong / unbeatable favorites rule 2 or 3 of the contest races with no playable longshots in sight. Such a situation would actually make this an automatic bet, even if you have no preservers left. You would have very little to gain by betting 3 favorites(or any single-digit win price entrant for that matter) in one day-- especially because:

2. The bulk of contestants select AND are eliminated by losing favorites-- you want to not be in that crowd when the misfortune occurs and/or a converse situation where say, a bad trip or start allows an unlikely cheap speed longshot  to shake loose and bury you deep in the standings. So, determine if  consensus ML & Contest favorite(s) is legitimate or vulnerable in order to proceed accordingly.  And more important:

3. Is there any sure in the money horse irregardless of odds & chance for the top spot? This type of horse is a much more valuable opportunity(esp. when not too favored), than a mortal win lock favorite.  Remember: two other horses will finish in the money and / plus you would hope some calamity befalls the favorite. This doesn't occur that often at Monmouth though-- be careful of trying to beat a strong favorite with a marginal contender(esp. if not even offered at double-digit odds) that might not allow you to survive the contest day unscathed.

Some thoughts on longshots:

A. Longshot bets are particularly powerful when none of the entrants have run before and/or do not figure to "run to the par time of the race"... EVEN when one or two entrants tower over the rest of the field. In such cases the winner is often the horse that feels the best that day(least injured and/or best juiced up), maybe an often far-outrun-early horse that now projects to sit fairly close to today's expected pace, maybe one whose last or best figure that was posted while seriously outrun is within single digit lengths of its contenders today--such a horse was supposedly not pushed to its best effort / has potential to improve more today. And that brings us to THE ONE MOST IMPORTANT & USEFUL HANDICAPPING TENET:

when handicapping a race, do NOT try to find the most likely winner based on the past numbers of the entrants; BUT RATHER on the horse most likely and/or 'potentially' capable of posting a new career monster figure and/or decimating the field by open lengths. The reasons for such an effort can be many-- but if you handicap like that, which is the opposite of the general betting public-- you will win more often AND at larger prices.

B. Try to disregard all bad pacelines  where the horse was outrun at all points-- particularly the last part of the race. Even if you have to go back 10-12 pacelines, try to always use the highest-fig running line to handicap the race(barring of course some logical reason that would preclude this) AND manually adjust it for any trip eventualities. For sprinters, search for internal fractions of route races that best all other sprint figs. With young horses coming off  extended layoffs and/or adding another year of age, one thing you can do  is to manually construct a projected 'robo' paceline utilizing  each best internal fraction from among all races.
An also ran finish(even multiple consecutive ones) at longshot odds does not mean a horse could not have run better / is off-form, most connections will not want to needlessly push a horse with little chance for the top two spots... better to wait until another day... at juicy odds to boot.

 

BTW Luis Carvajal just struck again(Sunday in the 4th race,  just like in Saturday's 8th): with another Fuhgedabouit horse. This 1 for 38 @ Monmouth / 0 for 34 on Turf trainer the past few seasons(& under 5% win rate 2008) has now won two consecutive days in a row-- taking advantage of the latest front-running Turf win trend in identical fashion by sending a speedster wire to wire on a clear lead right from the gate.

 

PS We could not find time to post a detailed analysis for Sunday(we do need to bet to put food on the table, this contest is more like a capricious hobby or unpaid volunteer work) but even better-- we will do so for Wednesday's card in step by step gradual & unhurried fashion:  taking you thru everything we do from the day before to the morning of the contest.
Be prepared for the most useful & practical analysis you have ever seen-- in marked contrast to what most public handicappers give out: we handicap & invest exclusively for a living, and that is what we intend to do for YOU, albeit in remote fashion.

Monmouth Park Survival at the Shore Contest

As of Saturday night July 12, 29 contest days have transpired(31 racing days actually, but two were cancelled due to technical problems)-- and counting today Sunday, 38 more contest days remain. So, 43% of the contest has transpired-- with 57% left to run...in other words, 1  &  1/3 again more days remain...quite a ways to go still. Don't count though, on too many more getting eliminated for three main reasons:

1. those who make it to thru the end of each month pick up an additional lifesaver
2. Monmouth's extreme favorite bias:  43% Win / 76% In Money so far this meet
3. remaining contestants are collectively far more savvy than those already gone

Of 3,142 starting contestants, 677- slightly over 20% remain. Of the remaining 677,  between 1/5 to 1/6 still have two lifesavers left(this is the group we really need to worry about);  just under ½ still possess one, and the remaining 35+% precariously have none left(& can largely be dismissed, with just under 2/3 of the current month still to run).

Figure on @100+ contestants remaining alive to the very end-- fluctuating from as little as 50, to as many as 200. In other words, this is not solely a 'survivor' contest like other Showdowns & Eliminators elsewhere-- where the winner usually outlasts everyone else without the contest having to run until the last possible day, nor any accumulated winnings coming  into play. In fact, more contestants should remain to the end in this year's Survival version over previous years due to more leniency re lifesavers.

So what does that mean re overall strategy for the remaining portion of the contest? A lot depends not only on $$ behind, but on how many life preservers one has in possession. Let's use as an example our contest entry:

we are at @$465 + 1 preserver...  129 are still alive in front of us... first place currently @$832, $100 less to second place(this one actually more dangerous than the current leader, what with two preservers in possession), another $50 less to third. We can't go crazy yet-- you have to be in it to win it-- but we need to start making up some ground pronto.

A. IF we had two preservers left, we could afford an average daily strategy of one safe choice & two longshots, but--
B. With only one preserver left AND more than half the month left(until we can pick up another one first of next month) the above strategy is very risky. A bad trip in a large field, a bad start in this speed-slanted oval, etc. would leave one having to on average play two safes and one longshot daily. And--
C. the bad part of such a strategy is the mathematics re the sheer number of contestants: there will be 'many contestants ahead of one betting twice as many longshots for something like 2½ weeks'... might as well just quit and start preparing for next year.
D. One not only needs longshots-- but that is only the half of it-- quite a few others ahead in the standings will also be on our longshot winner. Meaning:
E. We need to pick at least one more longshot than everyone ahead of us AND a few medium prices in order to beat all those tied with and behind us who also picked that same longshot... a tall order indeed.
F. Those with multiple preservers are really in the drivers seat-- come the first of next month they pick up another one-- and can then do things like bet exclusively longshots for several days in a row. Enough of them do this, some will hit 2 or 3 and blow the contest wide open.

Just to illustrate how difficult it is to pick a winning longshot: off the top of our head there've been 6 25+ to 1 winning longshots & we've only been on one-- in the other handful of races we've zagged to a different(& losing)  longshot. Take yesterday's contest day, which has been a microcosm of our last 2-3 futile weeks:

7th race-- no standout sure in-the-money horse / on final figs(adjusted) 6 of 9 separated by 2 or less lengths, 2 more within another couple lengths. 
Race projected as multi-horse pace duel-- of  those further back that could take advantage of the possible flameout, the 3(ML 10-1) looked to be outstanding value... and became our choice the night before. However, next morning we audibled to the 8-- the speed of the speed-- who had posted  a monster pace figure open lengths faster than ever before(to boot on the heels of several very subpar efforts)...you always wonder in such a case whether the pace fig is legit-- and even then, whether it can be repeated.. + whether that would cause a bounce. As well the horse could get strung out 4-5 wide on pace on a track favoring inside posts. What convinced us was the possibility of the Dutrow juice guaranteeing at least an in the money finish-- he was a smoking 6 for 11 at the meet +jockey Desormeaux shipped in as well-- despite wide post drawn. And that unfavorable post + 4-1 morning line figured to throw a double digit win mutuel. Alas, it went off as the favorite-- & we had to content ourselves at that being a positive sign. Gates open, 8 goes to its knees a couple of strides out-- Desormeaux lucky to stay aboard. After spotting the field, it steadily loops the field and almost catches $21 frontrunner that won the pace duel. Our original choice got a bit bottled up on the rail and lost position between calls, closed to be fourth and got bumped up to third @12½-1 on a DQ.

Nonwithstanding all that, a big consolation was that almost 70% of contestants lost here; and the remaining two races were conducive to longshots presented a possible double whammy of a longshot winner for us + an eliminated contestant bloodbath.

8th race-- Final analysis:  Contentious race: half the field plus one rates within one second.  2 main win contenders-- 3(ML 10-1) with potential for further improvement  / 5(ML 9-2, Contest most-popular choice) a stalker who could best take advantage of speed bias, having been facing superior early paces recently; however, sports subpar finishing kick.
/ 1 secondary win contender-- 9(ML second favorite, Contest third most-popular selection) a closer with undesirable post & who needs a fast pace up front /
1 Budweiser longshot-- 8(ML 20-1) sporting beacoup weaknesses:  facing accomplished turf runners as a 5yo turf debuting in a stakes race / on its 29th start, the trainer 1 for 38 over the years at Monmouth, 5 for 102 overall this year, 1 for 101 with odds greater than 10-1(worse: 0 of 7 when favored), zero in the moneys from 4 turf debuts,  0 in the moneys from 4 starts with jockey Fragoso(who while very able sported subpar Monmouth win % of 8). The horse's only plus-- adequate Turf pedigree on its mother's side---negatively balanced by subpar father. 

Based on that, the bet becomes a no-brainer: take the 3 while avoiding the other two choices with glaring weaknesses & more importantly, tons of contestant selections. If the 3 scratches take the 8.

The 3 just jumped off the pp's: 5yo gelding sporting improving numbers that coincided with newly-found success @closing style, decent post, shrewd jockey Cotto aboard...the deal clinched by its double-digit Morning Line odds. Opened up 50-1 and we were drooling.... got pounded to 20(drifted to 35 last couple minutes actually)... But as soon as the gates opened we didn't like what we saw: $80 turf debuter sprints to the lead with three horses abreast chasing a length plus behind it--  our hero sandwiched in between. Eventually he got closest to the leader while inheriting the rail-- but in the stretch drive it threw its head around several times, as if not liking being on the fence and/or tiring from being too close to the front early...and faded to fifth... while the frontrunner reached the wire unchallenged.

The only consolation out of this race was that 200+ contestants were so far at zero for the day, with a bottom level claiming race coming up. However.....

10th race-- Alas, the consensus top two choices scratched out: one early, the other one late....leaving 90% of contestants riding on our selection #3(ML 4-1), who inherited favored status. We originally hoped for it to stalk the speed duel & hopefully pay in double digits. But that duel evaporated with the scratches, leaving the 1 to dictate the pace and win.

 

Tomorrow's analysis follows on the next post.

2008 Triple Crown Thoughts

FYI we parlayed our Kentucky Derby winnings(Place bet on Big Brown) into a place bet on our hero in the Preakness. BTW Those who followed our exotics betting advice on the Derby, had the Superfecta. If you flip-flop the actual second & third place finishers, the Place payoff would've been much, much larger... but hey, that's racing luck.

We will NOT bet this Belmont because we are rooting against the favorite. Even if we weren''t, the only investment that would make sense would be to resell Belmont Stakes seats-- some well into 5 figures.

We are not rooting for this winner for many reasons:

 

1. Big Brown's feet problems, passed on from his father, are bad for the breed, in particular here in North America; and you can be fairly certain his syndication example just would not occur in another major racing  jurisdiction like say, England... but since money rules here...

2. The bad example + continuation of amoral trend set by his connections-- from one of the principals trying to escape a cloudy past of illegal investment shenanigans, to the trainer completing a Triple Crown trifecta of winning trainers having endured suspensions for illegal medications... again: you can be fairly certain that in another jurisdiction like say, England or Hong Kong both the owner and the trainer would NOT be involved in the Triple Crown or in racing altogether.
But hey, God bless America-- land where the Clintons not only never served a day in prison, but actually came within a whisker of running the country again-- this in spite of running their vitriol mouth and inventing more and more lies continuously... something Big Brown's trainer is mimicking as well.

 

We don't know about you, but we "are thoroughly disgusted" by Big Brown's owners and trainer-- from their thug security to their classless comments criticizing other connections to their illegal medication problems(no matter who the trainer has been)-- we can't think of a more undeserving & ego-centric bunch. And actually, if they had shown some class & courtesy towards others, we wouldn't be writing this article: but enough's enough.

 

We are counting on Big Brown to not win due to several main weaknesses:

1. The post-- likely the others will keep it boxed in. This is very possible, especially in light of his Jockey's comments that he will be very mindful of conserving energy & not trying to spurt away from the field(like in his last failed Triple Crown bid).

2. The cracked foot + overall conditioning: everyone's been raving about his last workout, but we totally disagree:

we feel he didn't handle the track all that well + he seemed to be laboring towards the end of the workout and as well the post-work pullup was very mediocre.

3. Pedigree limitation skewing towards sprints & short routes.

4. The weather-- today is the first real muggy summer day of the season-- and you just never know who it will affect more. Joe Takach devotees should have a betting edge in this race.

 

 

Good luck.

134th Kentucky Derby 2008 Wager

No Superfecta bet this year for us-- we can't toss out enough horses from ALL slots... even our tossouts & the 2nd / 3rd faves(which we don't fancy) are eligible to grab the 3rd / 4th slots.

So, we're doing a Place bet on the 20... which could toss a mutuel higher than Win.
Those winnings will get parlayed onto the following Triple Crown legs.

Good Luck.

 

PS There are a lot of live longshots here 'for the bottom slots'-- if you bet the Super, we recommend tossing the 9 & 10 completely, keying the 20 in the top two slots with all others of your choosing.

134th Kentucky Derby 2008 Thoughts

The contenders in brief, also factoring in pre-Derby workout form, a most Crucial consideration:

 

Level 1-- HOF candidates(or at least 'potentially' so).

 

#20 Big Brown(3-1)-- not gonna tell you much you don't know already. He stands head and shoulders above all-- looks like this year's Barbaro.  Obviously he hasn't had an acid test, but he has the potential, with continued improvement, to be this year's champion &  Breeders' Cup winner. He is much more deserving of favored status(hate to utter that in such a large field) than #10 Colonel John(more on him later), a candidate for underlay of the year.

No one else merits inclusion @ this level-- now, it doesn't mean he's a cinch; but if he wins, it's by double-digit lengths.

 

Level 2-- Main contenders / candidates to finish in the money.

two nice prospects jump out:  improving future Grade 1 winners who should make their presence felt here:

 

#12 Smooth Air(20-1)-- now don't think he's 'that' close in ability to Big Brown based on their last matchup; it was only the former's second race off a ½-year layoff & 3rd career race, plus he wasn't pushed late.

#5 Eight Belles(20-1)-- besides continued improvement, an alert start + clean early trip gives HER a chance to finish in the money.

 

Level 3--  Possible prospects

@ ½the rest of the field actually... some have a chance to best the two horses one level up, but it's hard to make such a case with any degree of certainty: too many questions remain about each. Conversely, it's hard to totally eliminate more than ½ the field in this year's running-- too many of these have numerous legitimate excuses for not having shown their best yet. Let's take them starting from the outside(& likely most-overlooked by the public). ALL these, btw show solid Churchill works / pre-Derby form :

 

#19 Gayego(15-1)-- BTW the name refers to a geographical area of Spain(get your mind out of the gutter, LOL)-- a Gallego(pronounce the double L as if a Y) is someone from Galicia in Spain.
Several things 'ALL have to happen':
'must' continue improving
'must' be able to rate like in his sprint races
'must' post a career-best final fraction

#17 Cowboy Cal(20-1)-- ONLY CHANCE is IF given a rating trip like in his November race.

#16 Denis of Cork(20-1)--needs BOTH an alert start & clean trip...glaring weakness is customary glacial early number.

#15 Adriano(15-1)-- may / must continue improvement.

#11 Z Humor(30-1)--serious questions remain whether he can handle this class of competition / pace... But the odds should  be attractive though...& has looked great training @ Churchil...

#6 Z Fortune(15-1)-- switches to a track more hospitable to his running style, may jump up here.

#4 Court Vision(20-1)--eligible to receive the best trip of its career.

#2 Tale of Ekati(15-1)-- ditto above horse, plus eligible to improve significantly in third off layoff for a trainer known to not unduly push his charges early on.

 

Level 4-- Underlays

might have a chance, but underlaid odds prompt us to downgrade a level or two, if not toss out altogether. This year, the second & third favorites earn this notorious distinction. If you're playing exotics, you gotta figure the vast majority of the masses will be keying the top two/three ML choices; so, if you can't toss a couple of them from the top slots, then there's little sense in betting this race.

 

#10 Colonel John(4-1)--the Left Coast contingent looks very, very weak this year... plus this horse has been facing very, very weak early paces. Maybe we shouldn't hold that against him(he has lain fairly close up early at times), BUT he's being touted co-favorite or close second-- with a wide gap to the next best contender & everyone else. This is a horse whose top number only beats the top number of three other contenders-- by less than a length at that-- and two of them have legitimate excuses trip-wise!!!
One could make a case for him of being capable of posting a much better number because this will be only his third race of the year, and that his last race didn't amount to more than a public workout because a slot in the Derby was already secured(earnings-wise)... plus he lost ground and position early on... and has been working spectacularly @ Churchill Downs..

 

#9 Pyro(6-1)--IIFFF you can toss the last subpar race(was already qualified for the Derby earnings-wise, so he didn't even need to hit the board)-- possible... judging by his solid pre-Derby work form....THEN, a repeat of the Champagne last year gives him a chance...although at unattractively-low odds.

 

Level 5-- severely outclassed / don't belong in this race and/or show substandard Churchill works / pre-Derby form:

#1 Cool Coal Man(20-1)--he's not 'that' outclassed, esp. at expected price, it's just that too many others are more likely-- esp. if forced to loop the field from that inside spot. As well, not crazy re his workout form over the Churchill strip.

#3 Anak Nakal(30-1)--although he's on an upward cycle, his numbers are the lowest in this field...may have a better shot in the Belmont.

#7 Big Truck(50-1)--we doubt this horse would be here if Barclay Tagg didn't have another contender running...

#8 Visionaire(20-1)--disregard disadvantageous last race...although he will need to run a lot faster early(than accustomed to) so as to not lose touch with the field.

#13 Bob Black Jack(20-1)-- 'might scamper away alone early' what with blinkers and The Mig aboard... plus IF the other couple of early-pace contenders decide to rate or break poorly... Otherwise, his early numbers are not overly dominant... ditto his form @ Churchill...

#14 Monba(15-1)-- getting a clean trip AND displaying the ability to rate even further back early would give him a chance...outworked by stablemate though...

#18 Recapturetheglory(20-1)--if this horse was a closer he'd be a serious contender off his final numbers... but he ain't gonna do it here with his customary 'unpressured while slow early' pacesetting ways... in spite of the seeming lack of early speed, as compared to previous Derbies.

Days 6 & 7 -- Monday & Wednesday

MONDAY

We were busy / not around... this was a wide-open race among several closers-- the onus should've been(as always) to ONLY consider the longest shots-- going by final odds, we would've been considering #'s 4, 5 & 7 @ 12, 10 & 26-1 odds respectively(yes, 9-10 to 1 is the cutoff point for inclusion in speculative bets) . Now, who knows how the odds would've been trending & been @ 5 min. to post(@ the safe limit to try and get contest bet in).  Maybe the middle-odds horse had been coming down from 8 or 9-- meaning toss out. Maybe the biggest longshot had been coming from 30+-1, in case it would've merited carrying all our contest dollars exclusively.
When we have a LONE  LARGE odds contender, 25-1 is our cutoff point-- above it we single it, below it we combo bet it with any other(s) double-digit odds contenders. In case you're wondering why, a 20-1 contender's odds can drop to the teens after the final off-shore money dump... you can then wind up with a single loser  w/ odds in the high teens and some other missed winner @ odds just slightly lower, say low teens, that you had tossed from consideration. Anyhow, at that odds level we need twice / thrice as many  winners to win the contest--keep in mind we'll only hit between 1 in 10 to 1 in 3 bets... we're better off collecting something at a much higher hit rate; to that end-- sometimes a solid contender @ single digit odds, that is fairly certain to hit the board, may be a better option than boxing 2 or 3 uncertain contenders with odds in the teens each... the total NET wouldn't be that much higher & the hit rate would be much lower.... a risk / reward consideration.

BTW above horses finished 1st, 3rd & 7th: either we would've bet all three(IF the 5 odds had been higher early), or only combined the winner w/ the rear-finishing one, or exclusively singled that larger-odds trailer.

Of note, we did NOT like the place horse no matter @ what enticing odds it would've been offered: Migliore still tends to ride too much towards the front early on(even though he's stated he realizes the late bias)-- with closers he tends to ride mid-pack & start his late move a bit too early... with today's result a typical microcosm: he finishes close but ends up getting passed late. 

PS earlier we've stated we dutch contest contenders-- we wish to change this to a reverse Dutch: this rewards larger odds AND minimizes the ground made up on us when the largest-odds contender wins, by those who've exclusively singled the winner w/ a full amount bet of $100. In this race's case the 7's odds are 26-1, 5 = 9 or 10-1, 4 = 11 or 12.... here 26 is a little more than 10 + 12 combined, so $55 to 60 can go on the 7, $25 on the 4, the left over(from $100) can go to the 9.
If say, we had tossed the 9, then the two bet amounts could've been $70 & 3o. Of course, you can reward extra brownie dollars to any contender, based on your handicapping.

WEDNESDAY

As with Monday, there're a few contenders, led odds be your final arbiter. Also one caveat-- any horse with the usual near the front style, which we eliminate outright, has a chance to win IF it endures some early mishap that forces the rider to settle early & make a move late OR maybe a new rider elects to take back early-- prime upset chance for some no-name rider to perhaps bring in a longshot):

1- lousy post for a closer & low % rider... demand great odds premium.

2- deceptively-good jock that shouldn't attract undue betting action.

4- ditto above, except the trainer is 0 in the money for 2007.

10- disregard Hol races, where beaten by others here...if jock is smart enough to lag back early, the win is in sight.

11- demand odds premium, rider not so hot.

BTW above are POST POSITION numbers only.

Good Luck.

Recap & painful weekly lesson

Let's try and take some lesson out of this disaster:

Firstly, the difference in the outcome was the rider: Rosario patiently outrode Talamo, who moved a bit too soon.

Second and MOST important: on this new-type of surface an early plodder is not an automatic tossout, esp. in a large field: the sheer number of horses almost guarantees a faster pace(ergo the front & anything near it will be backing up that much more late) & affords the plodder a better chance not to lose contact w/ the field.

 

As far as the contest: a consolation is that only @ 30 contestants had the horse-- we can still catch up, as long as there are at least two/three more bombs during the remainder.

Day 5 Sunday July 22

We are absolute morons, yes-- plural.

Last night we bet the standout fave here(because he just towered over this field), hoping for a non-odds-on price today.

Today, while simultaneously playing in two blackjack tourneys online, we tuned in w/ 5 min. to post... looking to ascertain our choice's odds(if too low, we'd either downgrade bet from win to lesser pool, or outright cancel the bet) &  for any playable cap horses.

We noticed three longshots, and discounted the chances of all except for the longest shot: its final figs were not encouraging, but late speed put it in the ballpark.... + new trainer, 2nd start, jock switch added to the intrigue....
then we said NAH! We'll just change the fave bet from win to place or show, since win price was kinda low....got shut out attempting that switch..... .....and.....

you know the rest.......

Multi-tasking & thinking with the clock ticking are not our strongest suits.

Our only contest prayer now is to exclusively bet longshots from here on out, no matter how hopeless.

Good luck all.

Days 3 & 4 Friday & Saturday

Friday: we were on the disqualified and much best show horse @ 12-1(yes, we broke yesterday's plan, but the odds on just about everyone else here were abysmally slow). FYI we disliked the 2nd, 4th & last place finishers, gave a chance to all the rest, most offered at miserly odds.

Saturday: Busy / traveling / shut out.

Day Three Friday July 20

World record holder One Hot Wish will scratch out, + we're not too crazy about its remaining entrymate(even though kind of highly-regarded)... therefore race is wide open(even the maidens have a chance)-- the only sure eliminations are I Dig Her & Warren's Appeal.

We will single anything firmly entrenched beyond cap level... so considerably over 35-1(we want to avoid late action lowering odds to 20-1 or below). Otherwise, if both halves of #1 entry stay in, we may take them in the money.

Day 2 Update

We actually did not make post time. We likely would've thrown the fave out and win-dutched the other three... tripling our total bet(don't think we'd've thrown out the second-fave entry, as the odds on the other two weren't that much higher, plus we liked the second part of the entry also-- a little bit though. Actually, no one in the race was offered at great odds-- maybe a little bit the winner: ruled the field class-wise & was let go @ 9/2. Otherwise, not even our peripheral contenders for the lower exotics slots: 8 & 5 offered any great value.)....

The only surprising part of the race's results was the early duelers holding on for place & show-- but when you see they were able to clear the field while putting up close to 26, 51, 1:16, 1:41 internal fractions-- no wonder.

As far as track profile so far-- it seems that at all distances & surfaces closers do well-- esp. those with superior turn time & that can start getting into contention a bit earlier.

 

Technorati Tags: Betting Picks, Contest Selections, Del Mar, Handicapping, Horse Racing, Online Contest, Wagering Pix

Day Two Thursday July 19

Win Contenders w/ ML odds:

1A: 5
2: 8
7:8
9:8

A lot will depend here on which jock best understands the surface winning profile(closing)... plus, any of these horses is just as likely to finish off the board as to take the whole thing.

1A: Has been facing much better, can the inconsistent Blanc do the job? Won't get great odds, w/ Frankel training...

2: Throw out its initial try in this continent....However, it will have to loop the field from that post,  + Migliore tends to ride forwardly-placed: a further negative....

7: Carries the best jock of all these....who's been riding well lately. Eligible to improve the most as the only 3yo...

8: Not crazy about the jock...although should consequently carry the largest odds....If able to duplicate last race's running style............

 

We doubt any of these will be let go at 25+ to 1.... We'll wind up either backing the 7 in the  money, OR win dutching any offered at sufficiently-large odds...we'll try to post actual contest selection later.

Day One Wednesday July 18

We didn't get a chance to post anything here before the race went off.

FYI To our handicapping service clients we released 1/2/6/7 as win contenders, recommending an exacta box, which hit. (Race results: 2/1/3/7/8/4/6/10/5)

As far as the contest, we were on the longshot 6, who loomed boldly and then hung. Both 6 & 7 may have been too close to early pace... even though it was extremely dwadling-- it looks like the way to win this year(at this short route distance) is to lay way back, then make a move late. In previous times, early speed has given a good account of itself at this exact distance-- but in all divisions of this Oceanside,  winners came from the back of the field & their final quarters ranged in the neighborhood of  22 / 22 & 2....to boot the slowest closing fraction was put up while overcoming traffic issues.

For the record, Victor Espinoza on the winner, gave a heady ride...overcoming tons of traffic trouble(which he may have caused himself by uncharacteristically not taking the overland route, as he's traditionally been wont to do).

Del Mar Online Handicapping Contest

Requisites for winning:

1. You must think ahead & look at the big picture / NOT get caught up in insignificant day to day standings ranks & moves...more on this further down the page.

2. You MUST catch longshots!!!!! Particularly cap horses- 35+-1..... There will be  from one or two to as many as three or four 25+-1 odds winners this meet-- you must NOT let more than one of those get away from you to have any shot at making the top 100, which is really only HALF the battle!

The other half? Well, if you succeed in accomplishing that...with as many as eight thousand  other contestants to deal with-- most of whom realize the importance of shooting for price, there will be a core group of anywhere from 50 to 200 that will have matched you-- you will need to have collected other smaller prices along the way for tiebreaking purposes.

3. Your 'biggest challenge' will be to determine for EACH race if there is any likely, standout winner @ whatever price... & whether any longshots have any legitimate chance. With 43 racing dates available, IF you play longshots willy-nilly: 40+ days of losing stabs offset the mutuels of two longshot winners. You will need also to collect lesser payoffs, and this can be accomplished one of a couple of ways:

win dutching, show betting, etc., depending on how many legitimate win contenders you're left with... and as well their odds. If say, you have an odds-on lock, you might back him for place or show... if you're left with 2-3 contenders, you either should back the longest-odds for place or show OR win-dutch all three: your object is to collect something(that will move you ahead of those that WILL be on those same long-priced winners later on in the contest... ).

Why do we not recommend win plays on lesser odds-horses? Odds as high up as the teens are not worth it: you'll be lucky if you can hit more than 1 in 10 winners here-- you're much better off collecting lesser prices at a higher rate: little by little you may be able to accumulate enough lesser daily winnings to equal one longshot winner's worth of mutuels; and "more importantly"-- anyone you fall temporarily behind(who had a win bet on that lesser-odds horse) is NOT a contest threat... they will eventually fall by the wayside: as they are employing an incorrect strategy. You MUST be considerably in the black on all your other non-longshot plays.

4. Play every day.

5. Pre-select something as early as the night before....you can bet & edit your picks right up until 'close' to post time. Play close attention to their close-off time, which they will adjust during the day to account for delays in previous races, BUT-- their running clock onsite can be a bit behind. Anyhow, you won't really need to cut things that close: odds must be over 20 to warrant a lone win bet, otherwise..... IF you do get shut out before post time for any reason, you can email your pick to miles and/or mary(look up their addresses onsite and add them to your contacts):
have your email client already-opened, filled w/ your pick, & addressed to them before making your pick, just in case.... one click will quickly do: if you have to start opening your email client, searching for their contact addresses, typing out your message, sending it(while hoping your connection does not suffer any slowdowns)... then you're at their mercy when deciding if your message arrived before post time(and remember, their clocks are a bit behind....which they refuse to acknkowledge). BTW their phone #'s are not direct-- you must wait until operator connects you through... gets a hold of them....
Make a choice early...then you can always edit it closer to post time.

6. Until proven otherwise, assume a closers' bias at all surfaces and distances...except for maybe the 2yo dashes.

7. Be willing to forgive a recent subpar race-- esp. if distanced / not pushed late, yet given a strong gallop out...and if now going off at large odds-- most such examples were likely pointing for this meet.

8. Physicality should play a huge role this year:

 Race day-- who looks like they do & don't enjoy the new surface and surroundings...

Day 10 In Progress..........

Race 4--

3 min. to post--7/9/1/4 identical favored odds.... 4 been drifting up from almost odds-on level to 3..... 4 has the most contest votes, then our 9...and + whoever becomes posttime favorite will carry significant scratch votes..... we're now favored... hate that.
4 delayed start due to "equipment adjustment".... goes wire to wire. 9 was dozen lengths back early after getting pushed out by one of the pigs...the 8? No chance now. 7 pulled up, 6 suddenly dropped out of it.

For some reason, the track looks(& plays) sealed to us....

We're mentally preparing ourselves for elimination-- we only have longshots in remaining races.

Race 6--

1/2//3/4/7 vying for favoritism.... 3 acting up in the gate...it carries a ton of contest votes, someone else'll be favored-- & carry all the scratch votes...rider off 3... back on.... our 6 sandwiched back to last at the start--- what a day for us. 3 no room the length of the stretch, finally squeezed thru near the wire...claimed by R. Dutrow

Race 9--

1 just took some money: jumped from 11 to 6.....

1 broke sluggishly and gradually lost ground on the rail thereafter.....

Sayonara everyone... see you next @ DelMar contest.

DAY 10 SUNDAY JUNE 10

Race 4:

Debating between 3 & 9, alternates: 5/7
We hate the 1, Exchange Lay it.

EDIT AFTER SCRATCHES: 3/5 not running, took 9

Race 6:

1/2/6 main contenders, alternates: 4/9/10

EDIT AFTER SCRATCHES: Vacillating between 2 & 6...we'll stay w/ the longshot-- in so doing we're basically saying re the 2: if you're so good, as the pp's indicate, why are you running for a tag... and this low to boot?

Rrace 9:

1/4/8 main contenders, alternates: 5/9/6

EDIT AFTER SCRATCHES: Staying here w/ the longshot as well. MUST have improved from 2 to 3, esp. if it's going to gun from the inside... or we'll also take unforeseen closing ability(not just stalking).

Pending scratches & barring sudden weather / surface change, we're going the longshot route today. We have no choice--  we have too many long prices among our contenders. If we let even one get away, we'll really be in a hole; conversely, if we hit just one we'll sweep to the lead...two might put us beyond reach of all.

We may get eliminated today... so be it.

Good luck.

EDIT AFTER SCRATCHES: We're breathing a sigh of relief after the scratches in the 4th-- 3/9/5 were all strong & now we don't have a quandary of longshot flyer vs solid contender... the decision's made for us. As well our day does not ride on longshots in all races; while we do stay on longshots in the next two, the solid choice here should hit the board and allow us to take a coupla flyers afterwards.
We happen to be riding twice on Trainer Pompay in the bookend races btw. We need for her charge in the last race to have matured enough since last season to put up a bigger number...and hopefully as well to have learned to rate even more.

Buona fortuna.

Day 9 In Progress

We audibled in the 4th race:

to the 2--

better: post/jockey/upside potential/quality of past competition & pace faced/ML odds(2nd fave rather than 1st fave)...  ALTHOUGH a bit less consistent / riskier choice!

2 @ 4-1, 5 @ 8/5... & twice as many contest votes on the fave. We like to be in position to advance while lots of folks lose...potentially(we're in such a position all day actually, as we've disdained the heavy faves in the other two races as well).......... so we won't shed a tear if both the fave & our horse bite the dust... let'em bump & wipe each other out.

If you played our pix, then you had the exacta, tri & super. BTW when you play our choices, if co-faves are included, never stick them both in the 1-2 slots OR only bet enough on those combos to hedge / break even. For example Exactas: key 5 & 2 over and beneath 1/7/6 ONLY. Supers: do your combos manually-- start by boxing all five horses, then remove the combos that have both 5 & 2  in the top two slots(first & third/fourth are ok though), and those that have BOTH of them out of the first two slots.

Our 2 had no excuses, it broke very well(& got odds cut in half as a consequence) & secured the garden stalking position, then the seas parted and it slipped thru, but first the 5 & very late the 6 overtook it. The 2 should do better both at a longer route & while closing from a bit further back-- but it really had no choice in this race, both from the inside post & the short mile distance: if it takes back it then gets trapped in no man's land.

We have no regrets re having audibled off the fave-- we'll do it again anytime. We just took the worst of it with the late odds plunge. Forget about too many elims today, with the first two choices both hitting the board. Actually, check that: we don't like the public choices in the next races, so there's still hope for some bloodletting today...

Of note though: the top-ranked contestant's choice didn't hit...this is one person we're watching like a hawk: he/she's @ $65 in front of the closest competitor; and may go down today...its next two choices in order are: the 1 in the 6th, the 8 in the last... both of which we don't like.

Race 6:

The 9 is actually vying for favoritism-- give us a second to scratch our heads... its lineage is conducive to routing & late development-- apart from lousy connection stats, including a goose egg with debuters. Our 7 a bit cold on the board.... we're satisfied though: we assigned speed numbers to all contender workouts here, & it rules the rest, plus its connections' stats are not as negative as most others'.  The contest consensus 6 we absolutely hate...we're hoping it can grab outright favoritism-- (favorites automatically get assigned all scratchee votes)...

9 dumped rider & broke loose while loading.... finally caught her, very fractious.... should be scratched IMO.... fractious again, rider off-- will load w/o rider, rider now on, still very fractious in gate...they're off. Shoots out first like a bat out of hell, gets overtaken late by the 2-- another with breeding more conducive to routing, negative jock  + trainer ice-cold stats: 0 x 19 debuters, 1 x 39 straight maidens. It did have decent works, but there's NO way we woulda played it-- we woulda rather took the 9 first-- & actually we ALMOST  gave the 9 out as a longshot play.

The very-worst play here was the favorite-- in several races it has not come within several lengths of posting a par time(neither final nor internal) for this class level. So now, despite facing a ton of debuters they're gonna make it the favorite?!!?! Please!!!

We couldn't even get the favored 6 off the board: it did not threaten the top two but did get  the distant third...though we did get the contest's runaway leader off the board again...two down, one to go.

Race 9:

Upcoming favorite, which we dislike, has the most votes today...by a wide margin. Currently @ 3/5, our choice @ 5/2, everything else is @ double-digit odds.

Awwrighteethere... fave did win, but at least contest leader bit the dust. Our hero took a nice bump out of the gate.

A domani.

DAY 9 SATURDAY JUNE 9

RECORD TO DATE--  24: 8-4-6

Across-the-Board ROI(based on $2 w/p/s): $2.40  +20%

$2 WIN ROI: $2.18  +9%

Highest-odds winner: 7-1

3 for 3 days: 1 

THIS WEEK SO FAR-- 9: 3-3-0 

Across-the-Board ROI(based on $2 w/p/s): $2.96  +48%

$2 WIN ROI: $2.49  +24½%

Highest-odds winner: 5-1

3 for 3 days: 0

 

The reasons why we survived yesterday hold the key to the mint not just for contests, but for making money in the real world. Friday saw almost half the still-surviving contestants eliminated. Something like the first three consensus choices in each/every race failed to hit the board; and as we speak only 19% of original contestants remain(after just 8 days); even tho' smaller-size fields abounded(high numbers of scratches) & favorites/consensus choices did very well the first 7 days.

Firstly, kindly disregard our contest stats for real world money-making purposes-- we only post them for bona fides reasons: to give you impetus to accept some of our more off the wall concepts. A lot of those races were contest-forced, WE wouldn't bet them- even w/ YOUR in-laws' money(yes, in real life our win & roi rates are much, much higher... they have to be!!! since we get to cherry-pick from a huge simulcast menu, as well of course the entire bet-type menu).

OK, back to yesterday-- firstly, be aware that due to tech difficulties we have not had use of our main handicapping software for most of the contest so far... but that's not a catastrophe because of the main principles we utilize, which allow us to earn a living & win contests no matter which software / figure service we use:

Potential + Run to Par + Form Cycle Status... these categories, plus other related sub-categories, can be summed up in one question(which you should be asking for almost each race you handicap):
"Which one of these is the likeliest to decimate this field and/or go on to climb the ladder to fame & riches"?
Just asking this one question will place you eons ahead of the mad crowds-- simply because they focus too much on what already happened in the pp's: expecting history to repeat itself--  it allows you instead to better predict "what is going to happen TODAY". 
You should expect that in every race lurks one(or more) horse ready to take it to the next level / run significantly faster than par for the race class / condition.
Where/when the public errs the most is:
1. In a race where all entrants(of those with sufficient pacelines on record) have not before or can't/won't run to par today both internal & final fig-wise. Said public  then favors the obvious highest-fig entrants from among that inferior camp.
2. Does not sufficiently forgive subpar efforts due to: seemingly slight surface variation(say good instead of fast/firm), first couple of races off a layoff, subtle bad trip, trainer/jock intention, first couple of tries at new distance range / surface, etc. YET, ironically, IS willing to forgive an animal's bad effort and/or downward form cycle when its connections are willing to run for a significantly-reduced purse and/or shop the animal for a lesser price!!!

And that takes us to the crux of this contest's strategy: the time to try to beat a heavy favorite, apart from when it carries glaring defects, is really only when #1 condition is present and/or multiple still-unproven runners posess significant upward potential.
Especially at premier/short/boutique meets, favorites win at a disproportionately-high proportion(up to almost ½ for all first favorites &  9/10 when odds-on)-- trying to beat them willy-nilly would've gotten one eliminated during the first seven days here, while backing them too much would've eliminated one yesterday...as well as  have kept one far down in the standings during the preceding time.

We could really expound endlessly re expanded subtleties & additional categories + theories... replete w/ individual race examples; but we'll leave that for a future dedicated column.

Onto Saturday's cards:

Race 4:

5 is too much the standout here..."as long as it doesn't get suckered into laying too close to the projected suicidal pace"(we'd prefer to see a better jock aboard).  For that reason there'll likely be plenty of scratches here-- way too many speedballs are entered.
Alternate choices: 1/2/7... maybe 6.

Race 6:

The experienced ones here have put up horribly-subpar internal & final figs, + the debuters for the most part have horrible debut stats re sire & connections.
One notable 'kind of' exception is the 7, alternate choices: 1, 5, entry.
Speaking of entry-- if you just can't come up with something solid here, a viable alternative would be to allow the track wise guys & insiders to steer you: select the outside part of the entry, as it will likely scratch out AND dollars to donuts in this race the live/best debuter will likely be favored. ORRR, IFFFF you have time to play tomorrow after scratches,  just select one of the scratched ones....

Race 9:

3 stands out to us here, alternate choices: 5, 8.
Also, we do NOT like the ML fave 6, and may look to lay it at an Exchange.

 

Good kuck lids -err lick kuds -err luck kids. This dyslexia is killing us.

Day 8 In Progress

Race 4--  Not too keen on the fave dueling...however, no excuse for sorry performance. Winning trainer Alexander claimed him.

We totally & completely missed this race analysis, however, we're glad to lose-- this horse carried the most contestant votes today. If the next two races cooperate, today'll be an elimination bloodbath. Of course, we're sitting very vulnerable as well-- we don't have anything near the top 3/4 consensus choices in the next two races. So it's either us + likely only a scant few others, & at a price, or most of the rest that will be advancing today.

 

Race 6-- Our hopes here ride on Fragoso aboard a turf debuter-- we're encouraged he started off the day with a good winning ride.

Okie, dokie-- in like Flynn @ 12-1...& we got the favorite, third-favorite & Bravo on the fourth-favorite off the board!

Firstly, we totally disregarded the 2nd-favorite & actual winner-- due to both the layoff & departure from Pletcher's barn. Secondly, our hero suffered a ton of traffic problems-- to the point we thought the race was lost. Fragoso did a heckuva job breaking alertly & securing the rail w/o pushing the horse unduly. But from there he endured slow horses in front of him & getting pinned against the rail by those to his immediate right...losing ground and position late backstretch, turn & early stretch.

The first three horses here were much the best, the others will need to improve significantly.

 

Race 8-- we've audibled here to the 4, primarily because of the inferior turn time of the 5. And we root for 2, 6, & 9(especially whichever one of them goes off favored)to finish off the board & complete today's elimination bloodbath. BTW the 15-1 ML 5 that we audibled off is vying for favoritism here, while the actual ML favorite 9 is at double-digit odds & longest shot of the board. 10 is now vying for favoritism after Brad Thomas touted it on his race analysis broadcast.

Mission accomplished + all three others off the board!!! The latter wasn't that likely, as the race had scratched down to 8 entrants. Our hero had shown a huge fig improvement in his 2nd both off the layoff & as 3yo...that day was a speedfest: he was the ONLY non-wire to wire winner, putting up something like 11 & 3 closing furlongs. Today he was not able to either secure the inside or close stalking trip like we hoped-- he was last or next-to last early & had to take the overland route to win. What allowed our hero to win was the patient & confident ride from his jockey: he was laying next to last early(the two trailers well in back of the rest), then the trailer(& eventual place horse / loser of the photo) made his move, and but our jock just let him by...& only moved later at his pleasure-- coming widest of all to win the photo. Of note, the 5 that we audibled off came in third, actually sticking his head in front mid-stretch before succumbing to the top two.

We're gonna take a wild guesstimate-- as many as one thousand were eliminated today, narrowing the field down to some 1-2-3 hundred.

DAY 8 FRIDAY JUNE 8

RECORD TO DATE--  21: 7-3-6

Across-the-Board ROI(based on $2 w/p/s): $2.45  +23%

$2 WIN ROI: $1.91  -4-3/4%

(Yesterday we were involved in three win photos-- getting the nod only once... while our secondary contenders rounded out one super & the exacta in all of them.)

Today's racing is very dangerous: double-digit size fields in all three races-- w/ no standout lock in any of them....a bottom-barrel claimer, maiden route turfer, & entry-level Allowance Turfer with some surface firsters. To boot, fitness/recency/ability to run-to-par/track debut questions plague any potential standouts in all three.

Yes, one could elect to take a free pass(kinda early to be doing so-- unless one is very dedicated & non party animal-like... all it takes is missing one day w/ an earlier-than normal post time or some weekend when one stayed out late the previous night or got caught on the road to some resort)... while also missing out on a couple of potential bombs. We'll stay the course. Refer to review of the 6 horse for a coupla tricks / alternatives useful in a contest card like today's.

All in all, this weekend could turn out to be very crucial-- come Monday the field could be whittled down to as low as a coupla hundred.

Race 4

6 is the standout...will likely be odds-on...sorry. If you need a Bud longshot, take the 7.

EDIT: Contenders here are 6 thru 9

Firstly, none of these can run anywhere close to par-- in fact, only three are capable of running in even remotely competitive fashion vs a par 'pace of race'!! All but two of these not only have never won 2 races, but can't even boast of a single close and in the money finish vs 'conditioned & low-level claimer dregs'. Therefore, anyone boasting an in the money finish while facing open claimers and/or a fast pace is a candidate to demolish this field.

6: just towers over this field with multiple win/in the money/competitive efforts vs open mid to high level claimers & fast early paces...while also one of the lightest-raced here. If it hasn't soured / lost form from racing against much tougher, it could/should win by the proverbial country mile. This horse will by far carry the most contestant votes tomorrow, but it's very dangerous to try to beat it, with the other two races looming so inscrutable. IF this contest allowed betting each race right up until post time, then one could take that chance, with an eye towards charting the tote in the next two races(in order to jump on any significant bet pattern-- a very telling clue in those type of tossups. One viable alternative if you insist on beating this fave-- take the highest-post AE / MTO in the next two races...your selection likely won't make it into the race, thus putting you on the post time favorite. In those inscrutable-type affairs inside information & its money flow have a very good chance of tiding you over. You could also take any mount ridden by the meet's dominant rider(s) going off at fairly high odds, debuting surface/distance, trained by small/obscure/low percentage trainer).

The rest are only contenders in a least-worst sense / maybe the horse to beat fails to fire today sense / try to beat the odds-on favorite sense...

7: is used to facing very fast early paces & there's a slight chance it could find itself alone on an early lead. Apart from aforementioned there's little else recommending it: typically tends to lose ground in the stretch-- poignantly evidenced by its seconditis record.

8: this bottom-level maiden claiming Philly graduate becomes a contender 'only' because it has not faced non-maidens yet-- it thus has NOT shown that it CANNOT handle conditioned claimers!!! It will not find itself alone on the pace call like last time...and will need to improve its final fig substantially-- which it very well is a candidate to accomplish, with only 1 route / 4 previous races under its belt.

9: obvious contender, although it carries huge fitness & affinity for this track questions.

Race 6

Too many unknowns!!!!! Contenders: Entry/4/3/7/11/10/13

We'll take 4: high-priced yearling has nothing but bullet grass works, while advantageously tagged w/ double-digit ML; Fragoso knows how to bring in live longshots.  Whatever you do, do NOT take the 12: sucker bet.

Race 8

6 piques our curiosity, but this race is wide open 'dependant on trip'.

EDIT: Contenders-- 2/4/5/6/10 However, anyone can win. The main problem is the distance: the very short route could well help whoever gets the best trip... not necessarily the best horse will win here.  It could be a lone frontrunner-- the pacesetters in here have also rated in the past-- there's always the chance some aggressive one will grab the lead while simultaneously the other early battlers get caught flatfooted / decide to take back. It could be one of the prompters / stalkers from a garden spot just behind the early duel; and good luck guessing who it might be: maybe one of the speedballs that took back, one of the prompters, or even one of the deep closers which happened to benefit from an auspicious start. Then, from this group and/or the deeper closers: who/will anyone be the recipient of the rail parting or a seam between horses developing late?

2: Speed and the rail. This horse can also rate, but due to post & blinkers on will likely gun. Might scamper off alone early, as his main rivals for the lead have been rating recently / often.

4: Demand 20-1 + odds... as there are plenty of  unanswered questions re surface, ability to face this caliber of pace, connection's cold stats... It will be its third start off layoff & as 3yo, so plenty of upside potential vs these older horses. As well it could find itself sitting in the garden rail spot right behind the frontrunners. 

5: IF this closer can stay within decent range of the leaders.. We're going to audible to this one due to the nice 15-1 ML...for now......

6: Not entirely sold on this horse's newfound closing kick... plus in order to have a chance it can't lag as far back early as it did last race.

10: Possible horse for course, Castro back aboard a great +. However, MUST pair up last year's MTH form, NOT its recent one.

 

Final selections for the latter two races will become clearer once rider assignments & also-eligibles / scratches get sorted out. 

Good Luck.

Rant: weekend races not up yet.

Day 7 Wrap-up

Race 4

If we could foretell closing odds, how much easier this contest would be-- 11-1 vs 6/5, vs 9/2 vs 7!?!?  Even late in the betting the odds spread wasn't so great: the fave was @ 5/2, the 9 was as low as 4, the 4 @ 6....BTW re the fave: as they went to load it tumbled to 9/5, then 3/2...after they sprung the gates it hit 6/5. [We do believe that there's widespread betting at simo shops after the race starts--folks bet several main contenders, then call up the bets just prior to loading..they'll then watch the start+ early portion-- cancelling those with poor performance early, doubling up on those with favorable breaks. At tracks with early biases in particular they probably make a killing]. The 1 looked home-free midstretch, the 9 just didn't look like it would get there.  We have two rider critiques here:

9- Cruz went to the whip way too soon(early turn). 1- went a bit too fast at the start, chasing the speedball... it needed to settle down early much sooner than it did. As well we weren't too enthused about putting on blinkers.

All in all, no regrets: this was the safe play by the numbers; we just didn't figure to be odds-on while conversely to boot an in-the-money contender was let go @  double-digit odds.  We figured the actual winner's post time odds would fall somewhere between the other two contenders 4 & 9...while the fave's somewhere @ 5/2; thus making the other unsure contenders unappealing risk vs reward-wise. 

At least we're qualified for today... while having one price play later in the 6th: we audibled from the likely odds-on 6 to the 3(hopefully it should carry double-digit odds). What facilitated that decision is that Dutrow already burned us in this contest with a similar-profile horse...now we hope he repeats again, taking a bunch of contestants with him.

Race 6

Late scratch 5.... how can we eliminate contenders with 6-horse fields abounding?

Uggh, nipped again in the shadow of the wire-- by one of our other contenders...post position is mainly what shied us away from the the winner 9.  The 4 leaned the 3 up against the rail a bit coming off the turn into the stretch... we were tag-teamed here.  And we went off at too low odds...ehhh, at least we got the odds-on fave off the board.

Race 7

Lay the 5 at an Exchange...you should get a 50% payoff.

About time we won a photo! And we get another fave off the board! Our hero broke too well & gained too well of a position early for its own good. Early on, we did not think that it would even finish in the money as a consequence of this-- and coming off the far turn it sure looked like the whole field would engulf it(two horses checked right behind it in fact), but watch Castro's heady use of the whip to hold off the cavalry...and in deep stretch it really seemed as if the 6 would overtake it. Nevertheless, Rajiv sure rode well today...he's always live on a longshot.

 

Weekend picks up shortly. Look for as many as one thousand to be eliminated come Monday: today somewhere between 3-600, + there's another 500 who've used up their free pass, tomorrow's contest races ALL have large fields...let's see how good our forecasting turns out to be.

DAY 7 THURSDAY JUNE 7

Less than 100 eliminated yesterday-- not gut.

Race 4

We remain w/ the 1. Other possibilities at a price could include: 4/8/9...although none will likely be offered at sufficiently-high odds to warrant a look.

Race 6

Our revised contender list: 3/6/8/9...though they all have serious question marks:

3: Returns to trainer it did the best racing for-- putting up numbers which would decimate this field IFFFF able to revisit them.

6: Dutrow juice?

8: Hard to dismiss anything Castro rides nowadays, BUT kinda suspicious why it departed Allowance ranks.

9: Trainer may be getting geared to run this horse back up the class ladder to its former level. Hopefully Rajiv's able to secure a decent stalking spot / stay out of traffic problems, then get first crack at the cheap speed that's for the most part on a downward form cycle here.

Tough contest race to pick-- not only re questionable form for most, but because the ML assigned odds (for 3,8,9 that is)straddle the fence: any of 'em could wind up w/ either single or double -digit odds. The 6 of course, will attract the majority of votes. We'll revisit these choices come scratch-time.

Race 7

Contender list: 2/3/4/6/7/8 Also-- the 5 does not deserve ML favoritism. If able to access an Exchange, Lay it.

2: Posted a great closing fraction in turf sprint.... 3rd off layoff, class drop, & turf route distance give it a chance.

3: Hasn't done much, but has been facing better & most importantly is bred for routing-- to boot classic distances at that.

4: Horse to beat with a clean trip & heady Castro ride.

6: Strong closing kick-- blinkers off, firm turf & improved trip give it a chance.

7: Worth a shot a double digit odds-- it's certainly NOT a  sure tossout.

8: Not much to recommend...but Frankel @ likely double-digit odds makes it worth an extra look.

Apart from our actual contest choice, 4, the rest are pure speculative plays...plus none carry sufficiently-high ML odds to entice us to leave the 4; & additionally, it's not listed ML favorite. We're still focused on Survival mode this early in the contest. IF we take a purely speculative chance here and there, we'd like to be fairly certain of getting 25+-1 odds AND more importantly-- that the other two day's races are not tossups. Yes, if any of our contenders sport double-digit ML odds, we'll always give them a long look.

DAY 6 RECAP

Race 5--

Guess our choice(2nd fave-- too bad it didn't get favored...if we were going to lose, might as well take more contestant choices down in flames with us) didn't take to the weeds....yes, it shouldn't've fought for the lead, but still-- it quit like a pig. All in all, we wouldn't change our pick -- even after the fact: no way would we bet a Luis Rivera mount with YOUR money-- to boot it was the fave(who also carried the votes of all scratched horses).

Race 8--

Great job by Castro on our choice to not let the front get away too much from him...he's been riding so well... Although we were actually hoping our horse would fall down, because it was the posttime fave(as the scratched horses here had garnered heavy backing). Too bad Bravo mount, who imploded, didn't become 1st favorite-- instead of just 2nd...

Race 9--

Finally a fave implodes, along WITH votes of heavily-backed scratched horses. Our choice was not too far back early, then suddenly backed up midway thru the backstretch.

Don't think too many folks got eliminated today-- no more than 300 is our guess...

DAY 6-- WEDNESDAY JUNE 6

We'll stay put w/ selections posted previously. BTW nothing's a lock today:

5th race: Our choice is solid-- ideal fit to the conditions, BUT: 1. it's debuting over a new surface, 2. we're not crazy about connection stats(although the horse has been performing well for them). 3. Late scratches have made a shambles of the race shape: no one may want(be good enough to carry it) the lead OR someone may scamper off alone. Four to five horses here look to vie for favoritism here, & the remaining don't look to go off too long odds-wise.

8th race: Two main contenders here...the likely best one here's the import, but you can never tell for sure how it's going to fare off the layoff and US debut... as well the short ML odds & Bravo aboard are contest uber-negatives. So we take the other one, who towers over all the rest, but it's no lock: it's a closer stuck inside-- at a distance & new rail placement(out 24 feet) that could allow / aid one of the speedsters that might scamper away alone. Who knows, it may turn out to be the actual post-time favorite...definitely no price bonanza here.

9th race: most of the field is within a length or so top-fig-wise. Our selection's posttime odds may not match its ML longshot status, as it's being touted by the wise guys.

 

Our three choices today can all win, or all finish off the board with a bad break here and there... & to boot we may not get great prices either.

 

Good luck.

Early pre-Selections & ANALysis for Days 6 & 7

DAY 6

Race 5

Entrants here can be fitted into several categories, w/ some members of more than one: speedsters who need an unpressured early lead, some former speedsters who now are showing a rating style, turf debuters, & some hopelessly outclassed entrants: who either don't begin to measure up by the numbers and/or are undergoing a poor form cycle.

So, we've looked here for a good stalker or closer, in good form. Yes, this is a dash & our chosen hero may not win, but this is not our ultimate goal-- it's an in the money contest: we want someone running well late, as opposed to someone who may win or finish up the track.

Among the stalkers & closers the obvious contenders would be: 2, 3, & 6...plus possibly 4,5,7-- these latter may be prompted to fight for the lead or taken back / rated; irregardless re this final group-- none measure up based on one or more of the following: numbers, form, win %, connections %. NOW, we didn't just blithely dismiss any-- for instance: the 5 has a useable line 3 races back, + further could deserve a few extra points for a better trip today, not only re wide, but also re posting a better closing fig if within sight of the leaders. However, there's: a question of form, second & third-itis %, abysmal trainer key stats in relevant Turf categories...

We've pre-selected the 2: nonwithstanding subpar connections stats & turf debut, this is the ideal Allowance animal with the most potential: 3yo vs a bunch of elders, lightly-raced yet possessing improving numbers(adjust last number to account for double trouble please), consistent in the money record, has never been risked in a claiming race, can close yet is able to stay close to the pacesetters... Of the remaining rateable contenders: the oldster here, 3, looks intriguing, but we'd prefer to see better connections & less of a second & third-itis %... 6:  It is encouraging to see Lez back aboard, and its past classy Turf dash figs, adjusted for trouble, would allow it to contend for the top spot here, but we're concerned about poor recent form-- both race & workout-wise.

Race 8

Two standouts here: the entry(Mott & Bravo) and the 3. We're on the 3 but may look closer at the entry based on who scratches & Bravo rides...for this contest each entry member is a separate choice.

Race 9

Apart from the Monmouth debuter 7(coming off a subpar race btw), the rest can be divided into two camps: proven MTH losers & MTH hourse for coarse. In this latter category reside three entrants:  2 / 4/ 10.

2: notice its score last year here, when shipping in off subpar PHA races & while also stepping up in class(on paper, that is). Is it repeating that pattern again? Even if so, that number, the top showing in last 12 pp's, only makes it one of several eligible to win....IIFFF / assuming the top two faves on suspicious class plunges & off questionable form don't fire(even a substantially-lesser number than they're accustomed to would decimate this field).

4: Why is this horse running at 1/3 its value, while to boot coming off great works?

10: Most suspicious of all: former 9-yo Allowance / Stakes horse laid up 25 months...

Kind of between a rock & a hard place here because the website handicapper gave out the 20-1 ML #2 as his top choice-- we'll fall back quite a bit & to numerous contestants if we back someone else & it comes in. For now we'll take the 2 & make a final decision at scratch time.

 

DAY 7

Race 4

Stereotypical toss-up. Horses are so inexperienced that even those with only poor form showing can wake up when trying new surface / distance / jock / etc.

We'll take a chance on the 1 horse, despite its rail post-- its tractability seems advantageous vs. the un-rateable main-contender speedsters...and it faced an extremely fast pace last time. In fact, we'll include it in our Daily Parlay, barring low odds.

Race 6

We'll ride the Dutrow ju-err magic, #6.

Race 7

Main contenders look to be in the middle here: 4-8

We'll take the 4 now, then re-evaluate based on actual ML  & scratches.

The whole Day 7 will actually get a second look.

Day 5 / Weekend 2 Recap

Ho, hum. Just over ½ original contestants remain after two partial weekends. We were hoping to additionally eliminate next week the 500 or so entrants who've used up their free pass(if say, most were to overlook weekday racing commencing this week), but with Wed. entries up since yesterday(+ Thurs. up today), that's a longshot.

Race 4:

A. We got fooled by the underlayed winner 1. There was no clue its latest connections entertained any thoughts of changing its running style back to how it achieved its best successes over a year ago.

B. We zagged instead of zigging re our two win contenders(underlayed as well): the one we used finished up the track, the unused one placed(enduring a smidgen of a traffic jam)-- & at better odds. What a contrast in racing trips too, for two horses next to each other post position-wise-- as Murphy's Law usually dictates: the one we ended up utilizing brought up the rear while on an overland route, and the one we discarded was able to secure good inside position and contend for the win.

Race 8:

Our choice finished third...BTW great candidate for including in show parlaying: with 4 entrants vying for favoritism, you know at least 1 / possibly 2 or more will fail to hit the board, thus throwing a decent show price of at least $3.00. In such instances the Place slot holds little attraction + carries excessive risk/reward baggage: for a few cents to @ $1 more it usually's not worth it(keep in mind that most leading contenders will not usually get whipped to death to improve finish position once the Win looks out of reach)... and a Win bet holds no attraction for us until the Win price passes $9. When it does, we'll usually bet in the following manner & ratio: either Show or Place 2 or 3 Units AND 1 Unit to Win; and if we also find a vulnerable favorite in the same race we may instead proceed to Exotics.

BTW great job from Bravo on the race winner: securing inside from his wide post... one of the reasons we didn't fancy this entrant, along with the undue attention its rider usually brings. The place finisher we didn't fancy too much either for the win, but it's hard to toss turf speedsters completely out of the money, esp. because rail placement was moved out recently & rains have not abounded-- the resultant firmer going aids their chances.

Race 10:

Monmouth NEVER included the 1 horse, who was MTO in scratch report...leading us to believe race was taken off the Turf; thus prompting us to edit our pick to the only MTO entrant(who btw sported far superior dirt figs & as well form).

Yes, it worked out better for us in the end: we got switched to the post time fave(who actually won), BUTTTT we scrupulously avoid being on a race time fave: not only does it attract undue votes, but all scratched selections get transferred to it... most contestants get eliminated when consensus choice(s) fail to hit the board, a vulnerable spot to be avoided whenever possible.

Good Luck-- we'll post something re the next two contest selections a bit later.

DAY 5 final contest picks & In Progress bet recommends

Only one change-- 10th race, we'll guess is erroneously reported as staying on the Turf, since lone MTO #1 hasn't been reported scratched...he'll be our actual contest pick.

No pari bet recommends as of now...we may include one or two contest picks in our daily Parlay, maybe not...or we may instead look to lay some false contender...or maybe nothing $$ worthwhile will materialize.

Stay tuned.We will add edits to this post, rather than commence brand new ones.

 

EDIT: We took the day off...had we stuck around, our 8th race selection($3.00) would've been part of daily show parlay.

MORE RANTING

Just dropped almost 100 places in standings on day with no contest race. Other times you'll often see remaining survivor count change during days with no racing / after 2-3 dark days. Software must be real glitchy.

And re Sunday 10th race, track live feed reports race as run over the turf-- while contest picks handicapper reports it switched to dirt...we see no mention of lone MTO horse scratched, so we ASSume race is on dirt..& switch our contest pick to the MTO horse, #1.

DAY 5 SUNDAY JUNE 3

(The expected Day 5-- Saturday, was canceled due to technical problems)

RACE 4

Preliminary thoughts-- scratches can alter course of action greatly.

1. Winner should be either 7 or 8...they have a lot of similarities: horse for course, been freshened up, they have the closing numbers suited to today's 9 furlong distance, & their trainers have positive % in several key / pertaining stats...the 7 in particular reunites with trainer who led it to its best successes(in the current pp record). That being said, it remains to be determined with certainty whether it can come back to last year's top form OR if advancing age and/or the previous connections have irreparably diminished it...so our contest choice for now is the 8.

2. If either above scratches, the 12 can be added to win contender status, BUT his trainer & jock EACH are 1 for 2007, he will enjoy a nice wide trip, & will be sporting miserly odds. Parimutuelly-speaking, we would never bet this horse to win, if at all-- we would only hook him in exotics w/ our other contenders(non-fave ones at that).

3. 10 is a 'saver' win contender(not bet alone, ONLY hooked in exotics with other contenders).

4. 1/2/5/9/11...

A. IFFFF by chance, four of these five scratch, the remaining one moves up to win contender status.

B. IFFFF by chance, three of those five scratch, AANNDDD odds allow, the remaining two get added to 'saver' win contender status--conditions in points 2, 3 & 5 required).

5. IF playing exotics, 4 & 6 merit inclusion in 'underneath' slots IF odds surpass 7-1.

RACE 8

#9 just leaps off the page: numbers, success in dashes, tractability along with ability to lay close, age + potential, high % / consistent record, form cycle, connections... contest choice. This is not your stereotypical no-value fave, as a total of four here are vying for ML favoritism.

Other possibles: #2

RACE 10

Tossup, many could surprise:

#3 IFFF able to handle today's pace of race(way faster than it's ever faced)

#4 Not likely, but not an auto tossout.

#2 & 5 & 10 Cheap speed...all other frontrunning foes would need to scratch out in order to consider win candidate.

#6, 7, 9 Not likely...& we'd need to see 25+-1 odds to consider.

#8 ¿Serey magic? Lukewarm contest choice.

#11 Not a win candidate, BUT eligible to garner a minor piece.

Final scratches may drastically alter our actual contest choices in all races today.

Look for surviving contestants to dip below ½ today...maybe even down to 1/3 . Along those lines we're kinda disappointed Wednesday's races put up yesterday-- there're almost 500 contestants who already used up their free pass, ideal candidates to be eliminated if not aware of the imminent start of weekday racing.

Good Luck.

DAY FOUR RECAP

Today's results almost reflect how risky playing for price can be in this contest-- we didn't squeak by a whole lot. It just doesn't take much sometimes: one entrant contesting pace instead of taking back, another one not liking the surface...and now your contest hopes ride on a single entrant who might not like the surface / weather, or due to its running style endure commonplace turf bad trip / be done in by the bias, etc. Had that happened, it would've been especially galling to be eliminated while most of the crowd betting faves advanced.

*** *** *** Of note today...8th Race: as previously stated, turf rail out 12 feet(website incorrectly posted normal placement)...Field kind of weak quality-wise. If you wonder why Bravo on the winner disputed the pace: the sod here can get a bit firm at times, and this is exacerbated when running over the nice, unused section of the course(w/ rail placement significantly out)... Bravo was just taking advantage of this-- although I as the owner or trainer would've preferrered to see the horse take back a smidgen. Photo-loser DeCarlo was sharp also in keeping the leaders within range.

*** *** ***

Contrast that mostly Older Mare Allowance times: 23.66 - 46.78 - 1:09.85 - 1:34.05 - 1:40.12 WITH earlier 6th Race mostly 3YO Filly Maiden Claimer's: 23.04 - 45.63 - 1:09.54 - 1:34.04 - 1:40.35 ... Not just the runaway filly winner ran a faster early pace, but as well the next 3/4 back of her. *** We would mark down not just the winner, but the first 3 fillies for watching: the second-place finisher did all she could from so far back, ticking off her finishing furlongs in 12 flat...And the show horse held on fairly well while tracking the torrid pace: she actually middle-moved averaging less than 11 & 4/5.

CONTEST TECHNICAL GLITCH & RANT CONTINUATION

Everyone gets a free pass tomorrow, BUT what is more troublesome is Sunday races not up: a look at the overnights reveals why-- MTH entries are closing very late because they're having trouble filling fields: http://www.monmouthpark.com/overnights_extras.asp?racedate=6/3/2007 *** FYI Turf Rail Placement is incorrect, as posted onsite. Today's was 12 feet out, not 0.

Survivor RANT

It's now Friday morning, and races are not up for tomorrow or Sunday...they all shoulda been up as early as Wednesday & as late as yesterday: Thursday. Maybe Monmouth, which suffers from a dearth of horses at times, allows a very late entry time in order to fill fields. Then again, Memorial Weekend races for all days including Monday, were up way in advance.... HHMMMM, EHHHH........what're ya gonna do?!? *** EDIT 1: Picks for Friday stand-- no changes. *** EDIT 2: Friday racing started & still no card up for weekend, not even tomorrow's. Every cloud has a silver lining though: we'll take as a tiny positive that this may cause extra eliminations(contestants failing to sign up to make picks for the card).