Race 4
If we could foretell closing odds, how much easier this contest would be-- 11-1 vs 6/5, vs 9/2 vs 7!?!? Even late in the betting the odds spread wasn't so great: the fave was @ 5/2, the 9 was as low as 4, the 4 @ 6....BTW re the fave: as they went to load it tumbled to 9/5, then 3/2...after they sprung the gates it hit 6/5. [We do believe that there's widespread betting at simo shops after the race starts--folks bet several main contenders, then call up the bets just prior to loading..they'll then watch the start+ early portion-- cancelling those with poor performance early, doubling up on those with favorable breaks. At tracks with early biases in particular they probably make a killing]. The 1 looked home-free midstretch, the 9 just didn't look like it would get there. We have two rider critiques here:
9- Cruz went to the whip way too soon(early turn). 1- went a bit too fast at the start, chasing the speedball... it needed to settle down early much sooner than it did. As well we weren't too enthused about putting on blinkers.
All in all, no regrets: this was the safe play by the numbers; we just didn't figure to be odds-on while conversely to boot an in-the-money contender was let go @ double-digit odds. We figured the actual winner's post time odds would fall somewhere between the other two contenders 4 & 9...while the fave's somewhere @ 5/2; thus making the other unsure contenders unappealing risk vs reward-wise.
At least we're qualified for today... while having one price play later in the 6th: we audibled from the likely odds-on 6 to the 3(hopefully it should carry double-digit odds). What facilitated that decision is that Dutrow already burned us in this contest with a similar-profile horse...now we hope he repeats again, taking a bunch of contestants with him.
Race 6
Late scratch 5.... how can we eliminate contenders with 6-horse fields abounding?
Uggh, nipped again in the shadow of the wire-- by one of our other contenders...post position is mainly what shied us away from the the winner 9. The 4 leaned the 3 up against the rail a bit coming off the turn into the stretch... we were tag-teamed here. And we went off at too low odds...ehhh, at least we got the odds-on fave off the board.
Race 7
Lay the 5 at an Exchange...you should get a 50% payoff.
About time we won a photo! And we get another fave off the board! Our hero broke too well & gained too well of a position early for its own good. Early on, we did not think that it would even finish in the money as a consequence of this-- and coming off the far turn it sure looked like the whole field would engulf it(two horses checked right behind it in fact), but watch Castro's heady use of the whip to hold off the cavalry...and in deep stretch it really seemed as if the 6 would overtake it. Nevertheless, Rajiv sure rode well today...he's always live on a longshot.
Weekend picks up shortly. Look for as many as one thousand to be eliminated come Monday: today somewhere between 3-600, + there's another 500 who've used up their free pass, tomorrow's contest races ALL have large fields...let's see how good our forecasting turns out to be.
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