DAY 10 SUNDAY JUNE 10

Race 4:

Debating between 3 & 9, alternates: 5/7
We hate the 1, Exchange Lay it.

EDIT AFTER SCRATCHES: 3/5 not running, took 9

Race 6:

1/2/6 main contenders, alternates: 4/9/10

EDIT AFTER SCRATCHES: Vacillating between 2 & 6...we'll stay w/ the longshot-- in so doing we're basically saying re the 2: if you're so good, as the pp's indicate, why are you running for a tag... and this low to boot?

Rrace 9:

1/4/8 main contenders, alternates: 5/9/6

EDIT AFTER SCRATCHES: Staying here w/ the longshot as well. MUST have improved from 2 to 3, esp. if it's going to gun from the inside... or we'll also take unforeseen closing ability(not just stalking).

Pending scratches & barring sudden weather / surface change, we're going the longshot route today. We have no choice--  we have too many long prices among our contenders. If we let even one get away, we'll really be in a hole; conversely, if we hit just one we'll sweep to the lead...two might put us beyond reach of all.

We may get eliminated today... so be it.

Good luck.

EDIT AFTER SCRATCHES: We're breathing a sigh of relief after the scratches in the 4th-- 3/9/5 were all strong & now we don't have a quandary of longshot flyer vs solid contender... the decision's made for us. As well our day does not ride on longshots in all races; while we do stay on longshots in the next two, the solid choice here should hit the board and allow us to take a coupla flyers afterwards.
We happen to be riding twice on Trainer Pompay in the bookend races btw. We need for her charge in the last race to have matured enough since last season to put up a bigger number...and hopefully as well to have learned to rate even more.

Buona fortuna.

Day 9 In Progress

We audibled in the 4th race:

to the 2--

better: post/jockey/upside potential/quality of past competition & pace faced/ML odds(2nd fave rather than 1st fave)...  ALTHOUGH a bit less consistent / riskier choice!

2 @ 4-1, 5 @ 8/5... & twice as many contest votes on the fave. We like to be in position to advance while lots of folks lose...potentially(we're in such a position all day actually, as we've disdained the heavy faves in the other two races as well).......... so we won't shed a tear if both the fave & our horse bite the dust... let'em bump & wipe each other out.

If you played our pix, then you had the exacta, tri & super. BTW when you play our choices, if co-faves are included, never stick them both in the 1-2 slots OR only bet enough on those combos to hedge / break even. For example Exactas: key 5 & 2 over and beneath 1/7/6 ONLY. Supers: do your combos manually-- start by boxing all five horses, then remove the combos that have both 5 & 2  in the top two slots(first & third/fourth are ok though), and those that have BOTH of them out of the first two slots.

Our 2 had no excuses, it broke very well(& got odds cut in half as a consequence) & secured the garden stalking position, then the seas parted and it slipped thru, but first the 5 & very late the 6 overtook it. The 2 should do better both at a longer route & while closing from a bit further back-- but it really had no choice in this race, both from the inside post & the short mile distance: if it takes back it then gets trapped in no man's land.

We have no regrets re having audibled off the fave-- we'll do it again anytime. We just took the worst of it with the late odds plunge. Forget about too many elims today, with the first two choices both hitting the board. Actually, check that: we don't like the public choices in the next races, so there's still hope for some bloodletting today...

Of note though: the top-ranked contestant's choice didn't hit...this is one person we're watching like a hawk: he/she's @ $65 in front of the closest competitor; and may go down today...its next two choices in order are: the 1 in the 6th, the 8 in the last... both of which we don't like.

Race 6:

The 9 is actually vying for favoritism-- give us a second to scratch our heads... its lineage is conducive to routing & late development-- apart from lousy connection stats, including a goose egg with debuters. Our 7 a bit cold on the board.... we're satisfied though: we assigned speed numbers to all contender workouts here, & it rules the rest, plus its connections' stats are not as negative as most others'.  The contest consensus 6 we absolutely hate...we're hoping it can grab outright favoritism-- (favorites automatically get assigned all scratchee votes)...

9 dumped rider & broke loose while loading.... finally caught her, very fractious.... should be scratched IMO.... fractious again, rider off-- will load w/o rider, rider now on, still very fractious in gate...they're off. Shoots out first like a bat out of hell, gets overtaken late by the 2-- another with breeding more conducive to routing, negative jock  + trainer ice-cold stats: 0 x 19 debuters, 1 x 39 straight maidens. It did have decent works, but there's NO way we woulda played it-- we woulda rather took the 9 first-- & actually we ALMOST  gave the 9 out as a longshot play.

The very-worst play here was the favorite-- in several races it has not come within several lengths of posting a par time(neither final nor internal) for this class level. So now, despite facing a ton of debuters they're gonna make it the favorite?!!?! Please!!!

We couldn't even get the favored 6 off the board: it did not threaten the top two but did get  the distant third...though we did get the contest's runaway leader off the board again...two down, one to go.

Race 9:

Upcoming favorite, which we dislike, has the most votes today...by a wide margin. Currently @ 3/5, our choice @ 5/2, everything else is @ double-digit odds.

Awwrighteethere... fave did win, but at least contest leader bit the dust. Our hero took a nice bump out of the gate.

A domani.

DAY 9 SATURDAY JUNE 9

RECORD TO DATE--  24: 8-4-6

Across-the-Board ROI(based on $2 w/p/s): $2.40  +20%

$2 WIN ROI: $2.18  +9%

Highest-odds winner: 7-1

3 for 3 days: 1 

THIS WEEK SO FAR-- 9: 3-3-0 

Across-the-Board ROI(based on $2 w/p/s): $2.96  +48%

$2 WIN ROI: $2.49  +24½%

Highest-odds winner: 5-1

3 for 3 days: 0

 

The reasons why we survived yesterday hold the key to the mint not just for contests, but for making money in the real world. Friday saw almost half the still-surviving contestants eliminated. Something like the first three consensus choices in each/every race failed to hit the board; and as we speak only 19% of original contestants remain(after just 8 days); even tho' smaller-size fields abounded(high numbers of scratches) & favorites/consensus choices did very well the first 7 days.

Firstly, kindly disregard our contest stats for real world money-making purposes-- we only post them for bona fides reasons: to give you impetus to accept some of our more off the wall concepts. A lot of those races were contest-forced, WE wouldn't bet them- even w/ YOUR in-laws' money(yes, in real life our win & roi rates are much, much higher... they have to be!!! since we get to cherry-pick from a huge simulcast menu, as well of course the entire bet-type menu).

OK, back to yesterday-- firstly, be aware that due to tech difficulties we have not had use of our main handicapping software for most of the contest so far... but that's not a catastrophe because of the main principles we utilize, which allow us to earn a living & win contests no matter which software / figure service we use:

Potential + Run to Par + Form Cycle Status... these categories, plus other related sub-categories, can be summed up in one question(which you should be asking for almost each race you handicap):
"Which one of these is the likeliest to decimate this field and/or go on to climb the ladder to fame & riches"?
Just asking this one question will place you eons ahead of the mad crowds-- simply because they focus too much on what already happened in the pp's: expecting history to repeat itself--  it allows you instead to better predict "what is going to happen TODAY". 
You should expect that in every race lurks one(or more) horse ready to take it to the next level / run significantly faster than par for the race class / condition.
Where/when the public errs the most is:
1. In a race where all entrants(of those with sufficient pacelines on record) have not before or can't/won't run to par today both internal & final fig-wise. Said public  then favors the obvious highest-fig entrants from among that inferior camp.
2. Does not sufficiently forgive subpar efforts due to: seemingly slight surface variation(say good instead of fast/firm), first couple of races off a layoff, subtle bad trip, trainer/jock intention, first couple of tries at new distance range / surface, etc. YET, ironically, IS willing to forgive an animal's bad effort and/or downward form cycle when its connections are willing to run for a significantly-reduced purse and/or shop the animal for a lesser price!!!

And that takes us to the crux of this contest's strategy: the time to try to beat a heavy favorite, apart from when it carries glaring defects, is really only when #1 condition is present and/or multiple still-unproven runners posess significant upward potential.
Especially at premier/short/boutique meets, favorites win at a disproportionately-high proportion(up to almost ½ for all first favorites &  9/10 when odds-on)-- trying to beat them willy-nilly would've gotten one eliminated during the first seven days here, while backing them too much would've eliminated one yesterday...as well as  have kept one far down in the standings during the preceding time.

We could really expound endlessly re expanded subtleties & additional categories + theories... replete w/ individual race examples; but we'll leave that for a future dedicated column.

Onto Saturday's cards:

Race 4:

5 is too much the standout here..."as long as it doesn't get suckered into laying too close to the projected suicidal pace"(we'd prefer to see a better jock aboard).  For that reason there'll likely be plenty of scratches here-- way too many speedballs are entered.
Alternate choices: 1/2/7... maybe 6.

Race 6:

The experienced ones here have put up horribly-subpar internal & final figs, + the debuters for the most part have horrible debut stats re sire & connections.
One notable 'kind of' exception is the 7, alternate choices: 1, 5, entry.
Speaking of entry-- if you just can't come up with something solid here, a viable alternative would be to allow the track wise guys & insiders to steer you: select the outside part of the entry, as it will likely scratch out AND dollars to donuts in this race the live/best debuter will likely be favored. ORRR, IFFFF you have time to play tomorrow after scratches,  just select one of the scratched ones....

Race 9:

3 stands out to us here, alternate choices: 5, 8.
Also, we do NOT like the ML fave 6, and may look to lay it at an Exchange.

 

Good kuck lids -err lick kuds -err luck kids. This dyslexia is killing us.

Day 8 In Progress

Race 4--  Not too keen on the fave dueling...however, no excuse for sorry performance. Winning trainer Alexander claimed him.

We totally & completely missed this race analysis, however, we're glad to lose-- this horse carried the most contestant votes today. If the next two races cooperate, today'll be an elimination bloodbath. Of course, we're sitting very vulnerable as well-- we don't have anything near the top 3/4 consensus choices in the next two races. So it's either us + likely only a scant few others, & at a price, or most of the rest that will be advancing today.

 

Race 6-- Our hopes here ride on Fragoso aboard a turf debuter-- we're encouraged he started off the day with a good winning ride.

Okie, dokie-- in like Flynn @ 12-1...& we got the favorite, third-favorite & Bravo on the fourth-favorite off the board!

Firstly, we totally disregarded the 2nd-favorite & actual winner-- due to both the layoff & departure from Pletcher's barn. Secondly, our hero suffered a ton of traffic problems-- to the point we thought the race was lost. Fragoso did a heckuva job breaking alertly & securing the rail w/o pushing the horse unduly. But from there he endured slow horses in front of him & getting pinned against the rail by those to his immediate right...losing ground and position late backstretch, turn & early stretch.

The first three horses here were much the best, the others will need to improve significantly.

 

Race 8-- we've audibled here to the 4, primarily because of the inferior turn time of the 5. And we root for 2, 6, & 9(especially whichever one of them goes off favored)to finish off the board & complete today's elimination bloodbath. BTW the 15-1 ML 5 that we audibled off is vying for favoritism here, while the actual ML favorite 9 is at double-digit odds & longest shot of the board. 10 is now vying for favoritism after Brad Thomas touted it on his race analysis broadcast.

Mission accomplished + all three others off the board!!! The latter wasn't that likely, as the race had scratched down to 8 entrants. Our hero had shown a huge fig improvement in his 2nd both off the layoff & as 3yo...that day was a speedfest: he was the ONLY non-wire to wire winner, putting up something like 11 & 3 closing furlongs. Today he was not able to either secure the inside or close stalking trip like we hoped-- he was last or next-to last early & had to take the overland route to win. What allowed our hero to win was the patient & confident ride from his jockey: he was laying next to last early(the two trailers well in back of the rest), then the trailer(& eventual place horse / loser of the photo) made his move, and but our jock just let him by...& only moved later at his pleasure-- coming widest of all to win the photo. Of note, the 5 that we audibled off came in third, actually sticking his head in front mid-stretch before succumbing to the top two.

We're gonna take a wild guesstimate-- as many as one thousand were eliminated today, narrowing the field down to some 1-2-3 hundred.

DAY 8 FRIDAY JUNE 8

RECORD TO DATE--  21: 7-3-6

Across-the-Board ROI(based on $2 w/p/s): $2.45  +23%

$2 WIN ROI: $1.91  -4-3/4%

(Yesterday we were involved in three win photos-- getting the nod only once... while our secondary contenders rounded out one super & the exacta in all of them.)

Today's racing is very dangerous: double-digit size fields in all three races-- w/ no standout lock in any of them....a bottom-barrel claimer, maiden route turfer, & entry-level Allowance Turfer with some surface firsters. To boot, fitness/recency/ability to run-to-par/track debut questions plague any potential standouts in all three.

Yes, one could elect to take a free pass(kinda early to be doing so-- unless one is very dedicated & non party animal-like... all it takes is missing one day w/ an earlier-than normal post time or some weekend when one stayed out late the previous night or got caught on the road to some resort)... while also missing out on a couple of potential bombs. We'll stay the course. Refer to review of the 6 horse for a coupla tricks / alternatives useful in a contest card like today's.

All in all, this weekend could turn out to be very crucial-- come Monday the field could be whittled down to as low as a coupla hundred.

Race 4

6 is the standout...will likely be odds-on...sorry. If you need a Bud longshot, take the 7.

EDIT: Contenders here are 6 thru 9

Firstly, none of these can run anywhere close to par-- in fact, only three are capable of running in even remotely competitive fashion vs a par 'pace of race'!! All but two of these not only have never won 2 races, but can't even boast of a single close and in the money finish vs 'conditioned & low-level claimer dregs'. Therefore, anyone boasting an in the money finish while facing open claimers and/or a fast pace is a candidate to demolish this field.

6: just towers over this field with multiple win/in the money/competitive efforts vs open mid to high level claimers & fast early paces...while also one of the lightest-raced here. If it hasn't soured / lost form from racing against much tougher, it could/should win by the proverbial country mile. This horse will by far carry the most contestant votes tomorrow, but it's very dangerous to try to beat it, with the other two races looming so inscrutable. IF this contest allowed betting each race right up until post time, then one could take that chance, with an eye towards charting the tote in the next two races(in order to jump on any significant bet pattern-- a very telling clue in those type of tossups. One viable alternative if you insist on beating this fave-- take the highest-post AE / MTO in the next two races...your selection likely won't make it into the race, thus putting you on the post time favorite. In those inscrutable-type affairs inside information & its money flow have a very good chance of tiding you over. You could also take any mount ridden by the meet's dominant rider(s) going off at fairly high odds, debuting surface/distance, trained by small/obscure/low percentage trainer).

The rest are only contenders in a least-worst sense / maybe the horse to beat fails to fire today sense / try to beat the odds-on favorite sense...

7: is used to facing very fast early paces & there's a slight chance it could find itself alone on an early lead. Apart from aforementioned there's little else recommending it: typically tends to lose ground in the stretch-- poignantly evidenced by its seconditis record.

8: this bottom-level maiden claiming Philly graduate becomes a contender 'only' because it has not faced non-maidens yet-- it thus has NOT shown that it CANNOT handle conditioned claimers!!! It will not find itself alone on the pace call like last time...and will need to improve its final fig substantially-- which it very well is a candidate to accomplish, with only 1 route / 4 previous races under its belt.

9: obvious contender, although it carries huge fitness & affinity for this track questions.

Race 6

Too many unknowns!!!!! Contenders: Entry/4/3/7/11/10/13

We'll take 4: high-priced yearling has nothing but bullet grass works, while advantageously tagged w/ double-digit ML; Fragoso knows how to bring in live longshots.  Whatever you do, do NOT take the 12: sucker bet.

Race 8

6 piques our curiosity, but this race is wide open 'dependant on trip'.

EDIT: Contenders-- 2/4/5/6/10 However, anyone can win. The main problem is the distance: the very short route could well help whoever gets the best trip... not necessarily the best horse will win here.  It could be a lone frontrunner-- the pacesetters in here have also rated in the past-- there's always the chance some aggressive one will grab the lead while simultaneously the other early battlers get caught flatfooted / decide to take back. It could be one of the prompters / stalkers from a garden spot just behind the early duel; and good luck guessing who it might be: maybe one of the speedballs that took back, one of the prompters, or even one of the deep closers which happened to benefit from an auspicious start. Then, from this group and/or the deeper closers: who/will anyone be the recipient of the rail parting or a seam between horses developing late?

2: Speed and the rail. This horse can also rate, but due to post & blinkers on will likely gun. Might scamper off alone early, as his main rivals for the lead have been rating recently / often.

4: Demand 20-1 + odds... as there are plenty of  unanswered questions re surface, ability to face this caliber of pace, connection's cold stats... It will be its third start off layoff & as 3yo, so plenty of upside potential vs these older horses. As well it could find itself sitting in the garden rail spot right behind the frontrunners. 

5: IF this closer can stay within decent range of the leaders.. We're going to audible to this one due to the nice 15-1 ML...for now......

6: Not entirely sold on this horse's newfound closing kick... plus in order to have a chance it can't lag as far back early as it did last race.

10: Possible horse for course, Castro back aboard a great +. However, MUST pair up last year's MTH form, NOT its recent one.

 

Final selections for the latter two races will become clearer once rider assignments & also-eligibles / scratches get sorted out. 

Good Luck.

Rant: weekend races not up yet.

Day 7 Wrap-up

Race 4

If we could foretell closing odds, how much easier this contest would be-- 11-1 vs 6/5, vs 9/2 vs 7!?!?  Even late in the betting the odds spread wasn't so great: the fave was @ 5/2, the 9 was as low as 4, the 4 @ 6....BTW re the fave: as they went to load it tumbled to 9/5, then 3/2...after they sprung the gates it hit 6/5. [We do believe that there's widespread betting at simo shops after the race starts--folks bet several main contenders, then call up the bets just prior to loading..they'll then watch the start+ early portion-- cancelling those with poor performance early, doubling up on those with favorable breaks. At tracks with early biases in particular they probably make a killing]. The 1 looked home-free midstretch, the 9 just didn't look like it would get there.  We have two rider critiques here:

9- Cruz went to the whip way too soon(early turn). 1- went a bit too fast at the start, chasing the speedball... it needed to settle down early much sooner than it did. As well we weren't too enthused about putting on blinkers.

All in all, no regrets: this was the safe play by the numbers; we just didn't figure to be odds-on while conversely to boot an in-the-money contender was let go @  double-digit odds.  We figured the actual winner's post time odds would fall somewhere between the other two contenders 4 & 9...while the fave's somewhere @ 5/2; thus making the other unsure contenders unappealing risk vs reward-wise. 

At least we're qualified for today... while having one price play later in the 6th: we audibled from the likely odds-on 6 to the 3(hopefully it should carry double-digit odds). What facilitated that decision is that Dutrow already burned us in this contest with a similar-profile horse...now we hope he repeats again, taking a bunch of contestants with him.

Race 6

Late scratch 5.... how can we eliminate contenders with 6-horse fields abounding?

Uggh, nipped again in the shadow of the wire-- by one of our other contenders...post position is mainly what shied us away from the the winner 9.  The 4 leaned the 3 up against the rail a bit coming off the turn into the stretch... we were tag-teamed here.  And we went off at too low odds...ehhh, at least we got the odds-on fave off the board.

Race 7

Lay the 5 at an Exchange...you should get a 50% payoff.

About time we won a photo! And we get another fave off the board! Our hero broke too well & gained too well of a position early for its own good. Early on, we did not think that it would even finish in the money as a consequence of this-- and coming off the far turn it sure looked like the whole field would engulf it(two horses checked right behind it in fact), but watch Castro's heady use of the whip to hold off the cavalry...and in deep stretch it really seemed as if the 6 would overtake it. Nevertheless, Rajiv sure rode well today...he's always live on a longshot.

 

Weekend picks up shortly. Look for as many as one thousand to be eliminated come Monday: today somewhere between 3-600, + there's another 500 who've used up their free pass, tomorrow's contest races ALL have large fields...let's see how good our forecasting turns out to be.

DAY 7 THURSDAY JUNE 7

Less than 100 eliminated yesterday-- not gut.

Race 4

We remain w/ the 1. Other possibilities at a price could include: 4/8/9...although none will likely be offered at sufficiently-high odds to warrant a look.

Race 6

Our revised contender list: 3/6/8/9...though they all have serious question marks:

3: Returns to trainer it did the best racing for-- putting up numbers which would decimate this field IFFFF able to revisit them.

6: Dutrow juice?

8: Hard to dismiss anything Castro rides nowadays, BUT kinda suspicious why it departed Allowance ranks.

9: Trainer may be getting geared to run this horse back up the class ladder to its former level. Hopefully Rajiv's able to secure a decent stalking spot / stay out of traffic problems, then get first crack at the cheap speed that's for the most part on a downward form cycle here.

Tough contest race to pick-- not only re questionable form for most, but because the ML assigned odds (for 3,8,9 that is)straddle the fence: any of 'em could wind up w/ either single or double -digit odds. The 6 of course, will attract the majority of votes. We'll revisit these choices come scratch-time.

Race 7

Contender list: 2/3/4/6/7/8 Also-- the 5 does not deserve ML favoritism. If able to access an Exchange, Lay it.

2: Posted a great closing fraction in turf sprint.... 3rd off layoff, class drop, & turf route distance give it a chance.

3: Hasn't done much, but has been facing better & most importantly is bred for routing-- to boot classic distances at that.

4: Horse to beat with a clean trip & heady Castro ride.

6: Strong closing kick-- blinkers off, firm turf & improved trip give it a chance.

7: Worth a shot a double digit odds-- it's certainly NOT a  sure tossout.

8: Not much to recommend...but Frankel @ likely double-digit odds makes it worth an extra look.

Apart from our actual contest choice, 4, the rest are pure speculative plays...plus none carry sufficiently-high ML odds to entice us to leave the 4; & additionally, it's not listed ML favorite. We're still focused on Survival mode this early in the contest. IF we take a purely speculative chance here and there, we'd like to be fairly certain of getting 25+-1 odds AND more importantly-- that the other two day's races are not tossups. Yes, if any of our contenders sport double-digit ML odds, we'll always give them a long look.

DAY 6 RECAP

Race 5--

Guess our choice(2nd fave-- too bad it didn't get favored...if we were going to lose, might as well take more contestant choices down in flames with us) didn't take to the weeds....yes, it shouldn't've fought for the lead, but still-- it quit like a pig. All in all, we wouldn't change our pick -- even after the fact: no way would we bet a Luis Rivera mount with YOUR money-- to boot it was the fave(who also carried the votes of all scratched horses).

Race 8--

Great job by Castro on our choice to not let the front get away too much from him...he's been riding so well... Although we were actually hoping our horse would fall down, because it was the posttime fave(as the scratched horses here had garnered heavy backing). Too bad Bravo mount, who imploded, didn't become 1st favorite-- instead of just 2nd...

Race 9--

Finally a fave implodes, along WITH votes of heavily-backed scratched horses. Our choice was not too far back early, then suddenly backed up midway thru the backstretch.

Don't think too many folks got eliminated today-- no more than 300 is our guess...

DAY 6-- WEDNESDAY JUNE 6

We'll stay put w/ selections posted previously. BTW nothing's a lock today:

5th race: Our choice is solid-- ideal fit to the conditions, BUT: 1. it's debuting over a new surface, 2. we're not crazy about connection stats(although the horse has been performing well for them). 3. Late scratches have made a shambles of the race shape: no one may want(be good enough to carry it) the lead OR someone may scamper off alone. Four to five horses here look to vie for favoritism here, & the remaining don't look to go off too long odds-wise.

8th race: Two main contenders here...the likely best one here's the import, but you can never tell for sure how it's going to fare off the layoff and US debut... as well the short ML odds & Bravo aboard are contest uber-negatives. So we take the other one, who towers over all the rest, but it's no lock: it's a closer stuck inside-- at a distance & new rail placement(out 24 feet) that could allow / aid one of the speedsters that might scamper away alone. Who knows, it may turn out to be the actual post-time favorite...definitely no price bonanza here.

9th race: most of the field is within a length or so top-fig-wise. Our selection's posttime odds may not match its ML longshot status, as it's being touted by the wise guys.

 

Our three choices today can all win, or all finish off the board with a bad break here and there... & to boot we may not get great prices either.

 

Good luck.

Early pre-Selections & ANALysis for Days 6 & 7

DAY 6

Race 5

Entrants here can be fitted into several categories, w/ some members of more than one: speedsters who need an unpressured early lead, some former speedsters who now are showing a rating style, turf debuters, & some hopelessly outclassed entrants: who either don't begin to measure up by the numbers and/or are undergoing a poor form cycle.

So, we've looked here for a good stalker or closer, in good form. Yes, this is a dash & our chosen hero may not win, but this is not our ultimate goal-- it's an in the money contest: we want someone running well late, as opposed to someone who may win or finish up the track.

Among the stalkers & closers the obvious contenders would be: 2, 3, & 6...plus possibly 4,5,7-- these latter may be prompted to fight for the lead or taken back / rated; irregardless re this final group-- none measure up based on one or more of the following: numbers, form, win %, connections %. NOW, we didn't just blithely dismiss any-- for instance: the 5 has a useable line 3 races back, + further could deserve a few extra points for a better trip today, not only re wide, but also re posting a better closing fig if within sight of the leaders. However, there's: a question of form, second & third-itis %, abysmal trainer key stats in relevant Turf categories...

We've pre-selected the 2: nonwithstanding subpar connections stats & turf debut, this is the ideal Allowance animal with the most potential: 3yo vs a bunch of elders, lightly-raced yet possessing improving numbers(adjust last number to account for double trouble please), consistent in the money record, has never been risked in a claiming race, can close yet is able to stay close to the pacesetters... Of the remaining rateable contenders: the oldster here, 3, looks intriguing, but we'd prefer to see better connections & less of a second & third-itis %... 6:  It is encouraging to see Lez back aboard, and its past classy Turf dash figs, adjusted for trouble, would allow it to contend for the top spot here, but we're concerned about poor recent form-- both race & workout-wise.

Race 8

Two standouts here: the entry(Mott & Bravo) and the 3. We're on the 3 but may look closer at the entry based on who scratches & Bravo rides...for this contest each entry member is a separate choice.

Race 9

Apart from the Monmouth debuter 7(coming off a subpar race btw), the rest can be divided into two camps: proven MTH losers & MTH hourse for coarse. In this latter category reside three entrants:  2 / 4/ 10.

2: notice its score last year here, when shipping in off subpar PHA races & while also stepping up in class(on paper, that is). Is it repeating that pattern again? Even if so, that number, the top showing in last 12 pp's, only makes it one of several eligible to win....IIFFF / assuming the top two faves on suspicious class plunges & off questionable form don't fire(even a substantially-lesser number than they're accustomed to would decimate this field).

4: Why is this horse running at 1/3 its value, while to boot coming off great works?

10: Most suspicious of all: former 9-yo Allowance / Stakes horse laid up 25 months...

Kind of between a rock & a hard place here because the website handicapper gave out the 20-1 ML #2 as his top choice-- we'll fall back quite a bit & to numerous contestants if we back someone else & it comes in. For now we'll take the 2 & make a final decision at scratch time.

 

DAY 7

Race 4

Stereotypical toss-up. Horses are so inexperienced that even those with only poor form showing can wake up when trying new surface / distance / jock / etc.

We'll take a chance on the 1 horse, despite its rail post-- its tractability seems advantageous vs. the un-rateable main-contender speedsters...and it faced an extremely fast pace last time. In fact, we'll include it in our Daily Parlay, barring low odds.

Race 6

We'll ride the Dutrow ju-err magic, #6.

Race 7

Main contenders look to be in the middle here: 4-8

We'll take the 4 now, then re-evaluate based on actual ML  & scratches.

The whole Day 7 will actually get a second look.

Day 5 / Weekend 2 Recap

Ho, hum. Just over ½ original contestants remain after two partial weekends. We were hoping to additionally eliminate next week the 500 or so entrants who've used up their free pass(if say, most were to overlook weekday racing commencing this week), but with Wed. entries up since yesterday(+ Thurs. up today), that's a longshot.

Race 4:

A. We got fooled by the underlayed winner 1. There was no clue its latest connections entertained any thoughts of changing its running style back to how it achieved its best successes over a year ago.

B. We zagged instead of zigging re our two win contenders(underlayed as well): the one we used finished up the track, the unused one placed(enduring a smidgen of a traffic jam)-- & at better odds. What a contrast in racing trips too, for two horses next to each other post position-wise-- as Murphy's Law usually dictates: the one we ended up utilizing brought up the rear while on an overland route, and the one we discarded was able to secure good inside position and contend for the win.

Race 8:

Our choice finished third...BTW great candidate for including in show parlaying: with 4 entrants vying for favoritism, you know at least 1 / possibly 2 or more will fail to hit the board, thus throwing a decent show price of at least $3.00. In such instances the Place slot holds little attraction + carries excessive risk/reward baggage: for a few cents to @ $1 more it usually's not worth it(keep in mind that most leading contenders will not usually get whipped to death to improve finish position once the Win looks out of reach)... and a Win bet holds no attraction for us until the Win price passes $9. When it does, we'll usually bet in the following manner & ratio: either Show or Place 2 or 3 Units AND 1 Unit to Win; and if we also find a vulnerable favorite in the same race we may instead proceed to Exotics.

BTW great job from Bravo on the race winner: securing inside from his wide post... one of the reasons we didn't fancy this entrant, along with the undue attention its rider usually brings. The place finisher we didn't fancy too much either for the win, but it's hard to toss turf speedsters completely out of the money, esp. because rail placement was moved out recently & rains have not abounded-- the resultant firmer going aids their chances.

Race 10:

Monmouth NEVER included the 1 horse, who was MTO in scratch report...leading us to believe race was taken off the Turf; thus prompting us to edit our pick to the only MTO entrant(who btw sported far superior dirt figs & as well form).

Yes, it worked out better for us in the end: we got switched to the post time fave(who actually won), BUTTTT we scrupulously avoid being on a race time fave: not only does it attract undue votes, but all scratched selections get transferred to it... most contestants get eliminated when consensus choice(s) fail to hit the board, a vulnerable spot to be avoided whenever possible.

Good Luck-- we'll post something re the next two contest selections a bit later.

DAY TWO In Progress

Race 6:

We did not edit our picks today, leaving them all in as originally submitted. Our contenders finished 2nd & 3rd...we had the latter one, as Pletcher's horse projected to be heavy chalk(& we didn't like what the claiming price drop intimated)-- went from 6/5 to 3/5 to 1/2 in just two late tote flashes, while ours drifted up to 9...we'll take that any day.

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For clarification purposes-- esp. since we did not signal either as a parimutuel bet-- these were only contest choices: safe picks to finish in the money... as opposed to regular bets that get backed to win.

At Monmouth & this class level in particular the dominant speed usually wins-- & good luck deciphering which one before this race went off. BTW Lezcano did a good job of staying in contact early vs what turned out to be a torrid pace: 21.48 / 43.93 / 56.46

YES, Bravo on a maiden dropdown adding blinkers merited consideration, BUT that was obvious to the masses(or so we figured): he was co-second ML choice + w/ the negatives of the trainer having horrible stats any way you diced them & nothing positive in the lone running line(no show of early speed, no heavy betting action, nothing).

IFFFF we were to take such a flyer, we'd rather've given a shot to similar-profile but higher-ML odds horses: 1(scratched), 4 & 6, even the debuter 3.

***

Bottom Line re Contest Strategy: if we're to take either the ML fave OR Bravo(on one of the top three ML choices), we're going to demand just about everything be right-- since the masses will be all over such beasts.

***

Race 8:

12 is a Lay...should get min. $2.70. Our contest choice not a pari bet: we would prefer to see an extra half-furlong in distance(when backing a closer), smaller-sized field, less opponents making a turf / route debut, either towering or very-rapidly increasing figs...

Basically our contest choice here backs up / complements Race 6's-- between both we have a very good chance of one finishing in the money.

***

Race 10:

Our 5 scratched, so we've been auto-switched to the odds-on 7... Now we hope it finishes off the board, to get more contestants eliminated.

There don't seem to be any money bet opportunities here-- nothing sufficiently-high in odds to Lay-- best thing offered is the 8 @ max. $2.25 payoff...pass.

IFFF we'd had one of our other contenders scratched OR had some heavily-backed horse that could be tossed, we'd take a flyer on an Exacta Box....pass.

***

EDIT:

Nice exacta-- $300+...but would've cost $50 to bet(5 boxed + 1 other underneath them). ..Too bad the fave held on in the show photo: very few elims today-- besides those who didn't log in both yesterday & today.

***

PS Standings update up just after 10:30 PM last night...previously we've seen them up as soon as 6:30....

DAY TWO SUNDAY MAY 27

Race 6: Two contenders here: 7 & 8. Preliminarily, we've selected 8(odds), although 7 seems a more sure pick(re consistency & not lagging back so far early). We'll re-asess after scratches tomorrow. Race 8: Only one fits profile here: 9 Now, fig-wise it's not a standout-- it HAS to continue improving & stay out of trip trouble...Bravo should help with that-- then again, most lemming contestants usually are on Bravo. Parimutuelwise: we might bet him tomorrow IF we don't find a good price Laying someone else...we'll finalize this tomorrow depending on odds. Race 10: Eery replay of yesterday's 10th analysis: Win contenders: 4/5(favor this one)/7/9/10/11...6 in the money possibly, but not Win. PS re Monday: Races look totally inscrutable: none of the contenders can run to par(both pace & final fig-wise) in the first two races...We have to decide between taking a pass or a shot at longshots...slightly leaning towards the former. For now, we took Bailero in the 10th- trainer & jock are absolutely on fire(1A also has a shot...maybe 9 IF it can handle running against the type of early pace projected here. Race basically boils down to which closer/stalker gets the best & most relaxed trip behind the projected sizzling pace), + both Stewart mounts in the earlier two races-- what's he doing riding those high-odds horses....he's pretty good at bringing in $$ horses... NOTE: just realized won't have a choice to pass on the race-- picks can be edited, but there's no way to unselect everything.

DAY ONE- SATURDAY MAY 26

Belated Posting-- we tried making the live Simulcast Challenge-- so couldn't post Survivor analysis pre-race. *** As it turned out, we missed that tournament. *** Here's that analysis...shortened btw. We did go 3 for 3 today, but don't get any ideas we're chalk-eaters. *** We're tied for 8th from 3442 contestants, $3 from the top... but, as we've said before, that means nothing...surviving is the key. *** One fourteenth of the field eliminated today, in spite of two 3/5 winners, BUT...1000+ did not log in to make a pick...& may not again this weekend, thus eliminating them totally. *** Race 8: Allowance races today hold a unique handicapping methodology lesson, per Quinn & Quirin: Look for the stereotypical horse for this class-- young, lightly-raced & improving numbers-wise race to race(hopefully not just one of the three internal race fig segments is improving, but two & possibly all three). Toss out seconditis & pro-maiden candidates, the more races the worse, the older the worse, the more gaps in races/works the worse, the more inept the connections the worse. *** We recommend you scan the pp's and circle your candidates before glancing at any pace/speed/connections figs-- in this day and age we tend to focus too much on the figs accomplished yesterday instead of thinking re what projected number improvement is possible today. Afterwards, you can then utilize the rest of your arsenal to prune out your contenders. *** In this race only two contenders merit consideration, one a likely fave-- the other at a middle price: 6 & 9 Fortuitously, the first one scratched out, leaving us w/ a nice 13+-1 price. We'll also include this horse in our parimutuel show parlay progression for the day. As well, the 10 is worth laying at an exchange-- should get a 30% price. *** Race 9 *** Not much to choose from here. The ML fave is a confirmed frontrunning-quitter...however, he projects to be open lengths in front of the closest speedster...factor in Monmouth's speed bias & we'll take it, hoping for an in the money finish; as the rest are totally uninspiring-- none can run to par for this class, and they're either cheap speed or closing plodders..."none" of the latter are on any kind of significant upward form cycle. *** Race 10 *** Win contenders: 4/5/7/9/10/11...6 might hit the board, but is NOT a win contender. We favor the 5 slightly-- it will be our choice. Those looking to Lay, take whomever's the most-favored among the rest, including the 6. Scratches: 3/4/5/10 We now were left w/ 7/9/11...which is precisely the order in which we fancied them. Likely wouldn't get a great price on the 7, but we felt it the most likely of the rest to hit the board. *** Layers, either 1 or 6 is worth taking-- we'll include a $2.68 price offered on the 6 & include it in our show parlay progression today. *** PS the 7 sure raised our blood pressure today, as we were sitting on a possible 3 for 3 day(a separate bonus prize category): breaks thru the gate pre-start, breaks poorly, circles the field late. *** As mentioned earlier, got shut out of the live contest.

Monmouth Park Survival at the Shore Online Contest updated daily, + Simulcast Series Challenge(when they occur- every 3-5 weeks) + regular bet picks

Survival at the Shore Strategy http://monmouthpark.com/survival/default.asp

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1. "Concentrate on surviving": the contest is meet-long(& likely won't make it to the end this year)!!! It's just too risky to take shots early in the contest-- 3 daily races bring a false sense of security / may lead one to risk taking a shot in one race when one has fairly secure choices in the other two. Secure, schmecure...this is horseracing!!! All it takes is one encountering running trouble + the other one scratching late & transferring one's choice to a perhaps false favorite....now your contest life depends on some longshot flyer. You might get away with this for a day or two or week, but soon enough you'll get your comeuppance. And even when you take a shot, you may find your choice's possible longshot odds shrunk significantly at post time. Take today's action:

"In spite of not one but TWO 3/5 winners" more than 1/14th were eliminated(7.2051%)...that rate, plus days when faves are not so successful, should probably guarantee the meet outlasts the contest...'especially when we additionally factor in all those eliminated during weekends(esp. holidays) & earlier-post days-- today, more than 1000 entrants(just under 1/3) did not sign in!! We hardly think they were availing themselves of the one free pass allowed in this contest right on the very first day.....so count practically all of them out this weekend, add the usual daily lose rate, and we may see 2/3 - 3/4 gone by Monday end.

You can't win this contest if you're not in it at the end-- this year just concentrate on outlasting all. IF we're wrong, and you see with 1-2 weeks remaining that the meet will end up with not all eliminated, then you can start taking some shots. So.....

2. For reasons previously stated, we place much more value on a horse that figures to be around at the end / have a fairly high probability of being in the money, even if underlayed / offered at short-odds and even if others(collectively) as just as likely to contend for the win slot..RATHER than some overlayed hit or miss longshot that is just as likely to win as to finish off the board. HOWEVER....

3. We scrutinize the first three morning line choices, esp. all projected heavy favorites ad nauseam and demand no weaknesses. All competing jocks will be fixated on stopping the favorite, or at least not allowing it an easy trip, and more importantly-- only when faves go down do significant numbers of contestants fall by the wayside. The only advisable- nay, obligatory time to take a shot-- is in the face of vulnerable favorites...say, when no one in a race projects to post a pace & final time par number.

4. Submit picks early, as soon as advance entries posted!!! You can always edit them at any time until 30 min. to first post. If you put it off until you finish some other project, something else will come up, then you'll wake up late, the internet connection will flummox, your computer will act up....Murphy's Law.

Our Simulcast Series Challenge Strategy: http://monmouthpark.com/ssc.asp

Most are in a Live Bankroll w/p/s format, 10 mandatory bets(no max.) each for min. a tenth of the 'starting' bankroll...2 entries allowed, top finishers get Ntra & World Series berths...keep your live winnings in addition to substantial cash prizes.

This is our favorite tournament format-- most closely resembles real life.

We want to utilize a different approach though-- parlaying w/ in the money.

1. Entry one is a 100% mostly-Show parlay, w/ some tweaks along the way: entire bankroll is parlayed from the first bet until it grows to 6-12 times starting size, depending on frequency & $ size of longshots at contest tracks... thereafter, min. flat bets are made to satisfy contest requirements. Live odds are scrutinized in all remaining contest races and saver min. bets are placed on any live longshots.

2. Entry two is ditto above but only @ 50%: half the bankroll is bet initially, those winnings added to un-bet money, halved again, then on to the next bet, and so forth and so on...in other words, this progression allows for one loss after each win.

3. Bets are usually for Show, sometimes Place based on field size & projected payoffs. How we determine potential payoff?

4. Calculate based on your horse finishing in the money, then take from the rest of the field the top 3 based on pool size & drop number two from that group. That is a fairly realistic result: not ALL top 3 choices will finish in the money, while still realistically projecting the top fave to hit the board...gravy time if it does not.

5. Early in the contest, when our expected price is under $4.00, the entire bet goes to Show(or Place), but if the win odds are 7/2 or greater, then 2/3 will go to show, 1/3 to win. When the expected price is over $4 we tend to forego Win until its payoff nears $20.

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Top prize eligibility usually requires growing starting bankroll 4 to 10 times...in the money / grabbing one of the usually four national championship berths at stake should be accomplished somewhere between 4 to 6 times.

If starting bankrolls are $100 when say, a 25 / 35-1 longshot comes in, figure more than one person hit it with $10 on the nose....and in that group some will additionally have another winning $10 bet on some middle-priced winner + another $10 on some slightly-overlayed fave...for a total bankroll of @ 450-500.... so one would need to get the bankroll progression to about 6X starting size, then finish requirements off with $10 bets the rest of the way, esp. on the nose of any potential longshot contenders.

If two such longshots come in, figure one or two folks at least, will have both.

Three or more, count on multiple folks having all but one...so now you need 10-12 times starting size.

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Why don't we go for longshots ourselves? It's a lottery..some races will have multiple live longshots, so the contest becomes a glorified dart tournament... plus we feel we can handicap well. Additionally, it's real money, not play money at stake...taking wild shots with play money & ideally low entry fees is not as costly as when one gets to keep all accumulated winnings.

PS This last contest's format is slightly changed-- only win / place allowed. Our altered strategy here is 50% progression in a 2/1 - place/win format.

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Parimutuel Bets

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During the course we may find bettable opportunities at this or any other track-- we will post as we find them...they may run the gamut from exotic betting to Laying(betting to lose at an Exchange).