Thursday, June 7, 2007

DAY 7 THURSDAY JUNE 7

Less than 100 eliminated yesterday-- not gut.

Race 4

We remain w/ the 1. Other possibilities at a price could include: 4/8/9...although none will likely be offered at sufficiently-high odds to warrant a look.

Race 6

Our revised contender list: 3/6/8/9...though they all have serious question marks:

3: Returns to trainer it did the best racing for-- putting up numbers which would decimate this field IFFFF able to revisit them.

6: Dutrow juice?

8: Hard to dismiss anything Castro rides nowadays, BUT kinda suspicious why it departed Allowance ranks.

9: Trainer may be getting geared to run this horse back up the class ladder to its former level. Hopefully Rajiv's able to secure a decent stalking spot / stay out of traffic problems, then get first crack at the cheap speed that's for the most part on a downward form cycle here.

Tough contest race to pick-- not only re questionable form for most, but because the ML assigned odds (for 3,8,9 that is)straddle the fence: any of 'em could wind up w/ either single or double -digit odds. The 6 of course, will attract the majority of votes. We'll revisit these choices come scratch-time.

Race 7

Contender list: 2/3/4/6/7/8 Also-- the 5 does not deserve ML favoritism. If able to access an Exchange, Lay it.

2: Posted a great closing fraction in turf sprint.... 3rd off layoff, class drop, & turf route distance give it a chance.

3: Hasn't done much, but has been facing better & most importantly is bred for routing-- to boot classic distances at that.

4: Horse to beat with a clean trip & heady Castro ride.

6: Strong closing kick-- blinkers off, firm turf & improved trip give it a chance.

7: Worth a shot a double digit odds-- it's certainly NOT a  sure tossout.

8: Not much to recommend...but Frankel @ likely double-digit odds makes it worth an extra look.

Apart from our actual contest choice, 4, the rest are pure speculative plays...plus none carry sufficiently-high ML odds to entice us to leave the 4; & additionally, it's not listed ML favorite. We're still focused on Survival mode this early in the contest. IF we take a purely speculative chance here and there, we'd like to be fairly certain of getting 25+-1 odds AND more importantly-- that the other two day's races are not tossups. Yes, if any of our contenders sport double-digit ML odds, we'll always give them a long look.

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