RECORD TO DATE-- 24: 8-4-6
Across-the-Board ROI(based on $2 w/p/s): $2.40 +20%
$2 WIN ROI: $2.18 +9%
Highest-odds winner: 7-1
3 for 3 days: 1
THIS WEEK SO FAR-- 9: 3-3-0
Across-the-Board ROI(based on $2 w/p/s): $2.96 +48%
$2 WIN ROI: $2.49 +24½%
Highest-odds winner: 5-1
3 for 3 days: 0
The reasons why we survived yesterday hold the key to the mint not just for contests, but for making money in the real world. Friday saw almost half the still-surviving contestants eliminated. Something like the first three consensus choices in each/every race failed to hit the board; and as we speak only 19% of original contestants remain(after just 8 days); even tho' smaller-size fields abounded(high numbers of scratches) & favorites/consensus choices did very well the first 7 days.
Firstly, kindly disregard our contest stats for real world money-making purposes-- we only post them for bona fides reasons: to give you impetus to accept some of our more off the wall concepts. A lot of those races were contest-forced, WE wouldn't bet them- even w/ YOUR in-laws' money(yes, in real life our win & roi rates are much, much higher... they have to be!!! since we get to cherry-pick from a huge simulcast menu, as well of course the entire bet-type menu).
OK, back to yesterday-- firstly, be aware that due to tech difficulties we have not had use of our main handicapping software for most of the contest so far... but that's not a catastrophe because of the main principles we utilize, which allow us to earn a living & win contests no matter which software / figure service we use:
Potential + Run to Par + Form Cycle Status... these categories, plus other related sub-categories, can be summed up in one question(which you should be asking for almost each race you handicap):
"Which one of these is the likeliest to decimate this field and/or go on to climb the ladder to fame & riches"?
Just asking this one question will place you eons ahead of the mad crowds-- simply because they focus too much on what already happened in the pp's: expecting history to repeat itself-- it allows you instead to better predict "what is going to happen TODAY".
You should expect that in every race lurks one(or more) horse ready to take it to the next level / run significantly faster than par for the race class / condition.
Where/when the public errs the most is:
1. In a race where all entrants(of those with sufficient pacelines on record) have not before or can't/won't run to par today both internal & final fig-wise. Said public then favors the obvious highest-fig entrants from among that inferior camp.
2. Does not sufficiently forgive subpar efforts due to: seemingly slight surface variation(say good instead of fast/firm), first couple of races off a layoff, subtle bad trip, trainer/jock intention, first couple of tries at new distance range / surface, etc. YET, ironically, IS willing to forgive an animal's bad effort and/or downward form cycle when its connections are willing to run for a significantly-reduced purse and/or shop the animal for a lesser price!!!
And that takes us to the crux of this contest's strategy: the time to try to beat a heavy favorite, apart from when it carries glaring defects, is really only when #1 condition is present and/or multiple still-unproven runners posess significant upward potential.
Especially at premier/short/boutique meets, favorites win at a disproportionately-high proportion(up to almost ½ for all first favorites & 9/10 when odds-on)-- trying to beat them willy-nilly would've gotten one eliminated during the first seven days here, while backing them too much would've eliminated one yesterday...as well as have kept one far down in the standings during the preceding time.
We could really expound endlessly re expanded subtleties & additional categories + theories... replete w/ individual race examples; but we'll leave that for a future dedicated column.
Onto Saturday's cards:
Race 4:
5 is too much the standout here..."as long as it doesn't get suckered into laying too close to the projected suicidal pace"(we'd prefer to see a better jock aboard). For that reason there'll likely be plenty of scratches here-- way too many speedballs are entered.
Alternate choices: 1/2/7... maybe 6.
Race 6:
The experienced ones here have put up horribly-subpar internal & final figs, + the debuters for the most part have horrible debut stats re sire & connections.
One notable 'kind of' exception is the 7, alternate choices: 1, 5, entry.
Speaking of entry-- if you just can't come up with something solid here, a viable alternative would be to allow the track wise guys & insiders to steer you: select the outside part of the entry, as it will likely scratch out AND dollars to donuts in this race the live/best debuter will likely be favored. ORRR, IFFFF you have time to play tomorrow after scratches, just select one of the scratched ones....
Race 9:
3 stands out to us here, alternate choices: 5, 8.
Also, we do NOT like the ML fave 6, and may look to lay it at an Exchange.
Good kuck lids -err lick kuds -err luck kids. This dyslexia is killing us.
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