Day 9 In Progress

We audibled in the 4th race:

to the 2--

better: post/jockey/upside potential/quality of past competition & pace faced/ML odds(2nd fave rather than 1st fave)...  ALTHOUGH a bit less consistent / riskier choice!

2 @ 4-1, 5 @ 8/5... & twice as many contest votes on the fave. We like to be in position to advance while lots of folks lose...potentially(we're in such a position all day actually, as we've disdained the heavy faves in the other two races as well).......... so we won't shed a tear if both the fave & our horse bite the dust... let'em bump & wipe each other out.

If you played our pix, then you had the exacta, tri & super. BTW when you play our choices, if co-faves are included, never stick them both in the 1-2 slots OR only bet enough on those combos to hedge / break even. For example Exactas: key 5 & 2 over and beneath 1/7/6 ONLY. Supers: do your combos manually-- start by boxing all five horses, then remove the combos that have both 5 & 2  in the top two slots(first & third/fourth are ok though), and those that have BOTH of them out of the first two slots.

Our 2 had no excuses, it broke very well(& got odds cut in half as a consequence) & secured the garden stalking position, then the seas parted and it slipped thru, but first the 5 & very late the 6 overtook it. The 2 should do better both at a longer route & while closing from a bit further back-- but it really had no choice in this race, both from the inside post & the short mile distance: if it takes back it then gets trapped in no man's land.

We have no regrets re having audibled off the fave-- we'll do it again anytime. We just took the worst of it with the late odds plunge. Forget about too many elims today, with the first two choices both hitting the board. Actually, check that: we don't like the public choices in the next races, so there's still hope for some bloodletting today...

Of note though: the top-ranked contestant's choice didn't hit...this is one person we're watching like a hawk: he/she's @ $65 in front of the closest competitor; and may go down today...its next two choices in order are: the 1 in the 6th, the 8 in the last... both of which we don't like.

Race 6:

The 9 is actually vying for favoritism-- give us a second to scratch our heads... its lineage is conducive to routing & late development-- apart from lousy connection stats, including a goose egg with debuters. Our 7 a bit cold on the board.... we're satisfied though: we assigned speed numbers to all contender workouts here, & it rules the rest, plus its connections' stats are not as negative as most others'.  The contest consensus 6 we absolutely hate...we're hoping it can grab outright favoritism-- (favorites automatically get assigned all scratchee votes)...

9 dumped rider & broke loose while loading.... finally caught her, very fractious.... should be scratched IMO.... fractious again, rider off-- will load w/o rider, rider now on, still very fractious in gate...they're off. Shoots out first like a bat out of hell, gets overtaken late by the 2-- another with breeding more conducive to routing, negative jock  + trainer ice-cold stats: 0 x 19 debuters, 1 x 39 straight maidens. It did have decent works, but there's NO way we woulda played it-- we woulda rather took the 9 first-- & actually we ALMOST  gave the 9 out as a longshot play.

The very-worst play here was the favorite-- in several races it has not come within several lengths of posting a par time(neither final nor internal) for this class level. So now, despite facing a ton of debuters they're gonna make it the favorite?!!?! Please!!!

We couldn't even get the favored 6 off the board: it did not threaten the top two but did get  the distant third...though we did get the contest's runaway leader off the board again...two down, one to go.

Race 9:

Upcoming favorite, which we dislike, has the most votes today...by a wide margin. Currently @ 3/5, our choice @ 5/2, everything else is @ double-digit odds.

Awwrighteethere... fave did win, but at least contest leader bit the dust. Our hero took a nice bump out of the gate.

A domani.