Sunday, June 3, 2007

DAY 5 SUNDAY JUNE 3

(The expected Day 5-- Saturday, was canceled due to technical problems)

RACE 4

Preliminary thoughts-- scratches can alter course of action greatly.

1. Winner should be either 7 or 8...they have a lot of similarities: horse for course, been freshened up, they have the closing numbers suited to today's 9 furlong distance, & their trainers have positive % in several key / pertaining stats...the 7 in particular reunites with trainer who led it to its best successes(in the current pp record). That being said, it remains to be determined with certainty whether it can come back to last year's top form OR if advancing age and/or the previous connections have irreparably diminished it...so our contest choice for now is the 8.

2. If either above scratches, the 12 can be added to win contender status, BUT his trainer & jock EACH are 1 for 2007, he will enjoy a nice wide trip, & will be sporting miserly odds. Parimutuelly-speaking, we would never bet this horse to win, if at all-- we would only hook him in exotics w/ our other contenders(non-fave ones at that).

3. 10 is a 'saver' win contender(not bet alone, ONLY hooked in exotics with other contenders).

4. 1/2/5/9/11...

A. IFFFF by chance, four of these five scratch, the remaining one moves up to win contender status.

B. IFFFF by chance, three of those five scratch, AANNDDD odds allow, the remaining two get added to 'saver' win contender status--conditions in points 2, 3 & 5 required).

5. IF playing exotics, 4 & 6 merit inclusion in 'underneath' slots IF odds surpass 7-1.

RACE 8

#9 just leaps off the page: numbers, success in dashes, tractability along with ability to lay close, age + potential, high % / consistent record, form cycle, connections... contest choice. This is not your stereotypical no-value fave, as a total of four here are vying for ML favoritism.

Other possibles: #2

RACE 10

Tossup, many could surprise:

#3 IFFF able to handle today's pace of race(way faster than it's ever faced)

#4 Not likely, but not an auto tossout.

#2 & 5 & 10 Cheap speed...all other frontrunning foes would need to scratch out in order to consider win candidate.

#6, 7, 9 Not likely...& we'd need to see 25+-1 odds to consider.

#8 ¿Serey magic? Lukewarm contest choice.

#11 Not a win candidate, BUT eligible to garner a minor piece.

Final scratches may drastically alter our actual contest choices in all races today.

Look for surviving contestants to dip below ½ today...maybe even down to 1/3 . Along those lines we're kinda disappointed Wednesday's races put up yesterday-- there're almost 500 contestants who already used up their free pass, ideal candidates to be eliminated if not aware of the imminent start of weekday racing.

Good Luck.

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