DAY 6
Race 5
Entrants here can be fitted into several categories, w/ some members of more than one: speedsters who need an unpressured early lead, some former speedsters who now are showing a rating style, turf debuters, & some hopelessly outclassed entrants: who either don't begin to measure up by the numbers and/or are undergoing a poor form cycle.
So, we've looked here for a good stalker or closer, in good form. Yes, this is a dash & our chosen hero may not win, but this is not our ultimate goal-- it's an in the money contest: we want someone running well late, as opposed to someone who may win or finish up the track.
Among the stalkers & closers the obvious contenders would be: 2, 3, & 6...plus possibly 4,5,7-- these latter may be prompted to fight for the lead or taken back / rated; irregardless re this final group-- none measure up based on one or more of the following: numbers, form, win %, connections %. NOW, we didn't just blithely dismiss any-- for instance: the 5 has a useable line 3 races back, + further could deserve a few extra points for a better trip today, not only re wide, but also re posting a better closing fig if within sight of the leaders. However, there's: a question of form, second & third-itis %, abysmal trainer key stats in relevant Turf categories...
We've pre-selected the 2: nonwithstanding subpar connections stats & turf debut, this is the ideal Allowance animal with the most potential: 3yo vs a bunch of elders, lightly-raced yet possessing improving numbers(adjust last number to account for double trouble please), consistent in the money record, has never been risked in a claiming race, can close yet is able to stay close to the pacesetters... Of the remaining rateable contenders: the oldster here, 3, looks intriguing, but we'd prefer to see better connections & less of a second & third-itis %... 6: It is encouraging to see Lez back aboard, and its past classy Turf dash figs, adjusted for trouble, would allow it to contend for the top spot here, but we're concerned about poor recent form-- both race & workout-wise.
Race 8
Two standouts here: the entry(Mott & Bravo) and the 3. We're on the 3 but may look closer at the entry based on who scratches & Bravo rides...for this contest each entry member is a separate choice.
Race 9
Apart from the Monmouth debuter 7(coming off a subpar race btw), the rest can be divided into two camps: proven MTH losers & MTH hourse for coarse. In this latter category reside three entrants: 2 / 4/ 10.
2: notice its score last year here, when shipping in off subpar PHA races & while also stepping up in class(on paper, that is). Is it repeating that pattern again? Even if so, that number, the top showing in last 12 pp's, only makes it one of several eligible to win....IIFFF / assuming the top two faves on suspicious class plunges & off questionable form don't fire(even a substantially-lesser number than they're accustomed to would decimate this field).
4: Why is this horse running at 1/3 its value, while to boot coming off great works?
10: Most suspicious of all: former 9-yo Allowance / Stakes horse laid up 25 months...
Kind of between a rock & a hard place here because the website handicapper gave out the 20-1 ML #2 as his top choice-- we'll fall back quite a bit & to numerous contestants if we back someone else & it comes in. For now we'll take the 2 & make a final decision at scratch time.
DAY 7
Race 4
Stereotypical toss-up. Horses are so inexperienced that even those with only poor form showing can wake up when trying new surface / distance / jock / etc.
We'll take a chance on the 1 horse, despite its rail post-- its tractability seems advantageous vs. the un-rateable main-contender speedsters...and it faced an extremely fast pace last time. In fact, we'll include it in our Daily Parlay, barring low odds.
Race 6
We'll ride the Dutrow ju-err magic, #6.
Race 7
Main contenders look to be in the middle here: 4-8
We'll take the 4 now, then re-evaluate based on actual ML & scratches.
The whole Day 7 will actually get a second look.
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