Sunday, June 3, 2007

Day 5 / Weekend 2 Recap

Ho, hum. Just over ½ original contestants remain after two partial weekends. We were hoping to additionally eliminate next week the 500 or so entrants who've used up their free pass(if say, most were to overlook weekday racing commencing this week), but with Wed. entries up since yesterday(+ Thurs. up today), that's a longshot.

Race 4:

A. We got fooled by the underlayed winner 1. There was no clue its latest connections entertained any thoughts of changing its running style back to how it achieved its best successes over a year ago.

B. We zagged instead of zigging re our two win contenders(underlayed as well): the one we used finished up the track, the unused one placed(enduring a smidgen of a traffic jam)-- & at better odds. What a contrast in racing trips too, for two horses next to each other post position-wise-- as Murphy's Law usually dictates: the one we ended up utilizing brought up the rear while on an overland route, and the one we discarded was able to secure good inside position and contend for the win.

Race 8:

Our choice finished third...BTW great candidate for including in show parlaying: with 4 entrants vying for favoritism, you know at least 1 / possibly 2 or more will fail to hit the board, thus throwing a decent show price of at least $3.00. In such instances the Place slot holds little attraction + carries excessive risk/reward baggage: for a few cents to @ $1 more it usually's not worth it(keep in mind that most leading contenders will not usually get whipped to death to improve finish position once the Win looks out of reach)... and a Win bet holds no attraction for us until the Win price passes $9. When it does, we'll usually bet in the following manner & ratio: either Show or Place 2 or 3 Units AND 1 Unit to Win; and if we also find a vulnerable favorite in the same race we may instead proceed to Exotics.

BTW great job from Bravo on the race winner: securing inside from his wide post... one of the reasons we didn't fancy this entrant, along with the undue attention its rider usually brings. The place finisher we didn't fancy too much either for the win, but it's hard to toss turf speedsters completely out of the money, esp. because rail placement was moved out recently & rains have not abounded-- the resultant firmer going aids their chances.

Race 10:

Monmouth NEVER included the 1 horse, who was MTO in scratch report...leading us to believe race was taken off the Turf; thus prompting us to edit our pick to the only MTO entrant(who btw sported far superior dirt figs & as well form).

Yes, it worked out better for us in the end: we got switched to the post time fave(who actually won), BUTTTT we scrupulously avoid being on a race time fave: not only does it attract undue votes, but all scratched selections get transferred to it... most contestants get eliminated when consensus choice(s) fail to hit the board, a vulnerable spot to be avoided whenever possible. Tongue out

Good Luck-- we'll post something re the next two contest selections a bit later.

No comments: