Race 6:
We did not edit our picks today, leaving them all in as originally submitted. Our contenders finished 2nd & 3rd...we had the latter one, as Pletcher's horse projected to be heavy chalk(& we didn't like what the claiming price drop intimated)-- went from 6/5 to 3/5 to 1/2 in just two late tote flashes, while ours drifted up to 9...we'll take that any day.
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For clarification purposes-- esp. since we did not signal either as a parimutuel bet-- these were only contest choices: safe picks to finish in the money... as opposed to regular bets that get backed to win.
At Monmouth & this class level in particular the dominant speed usually wins-- & good luck deciphering which one before this race went off. BTW Lezcano did a good job of staying in contact early vs what turned out to be a torrid pace: 21.48 / 43.93 / 56.46
YES, Bravo on a maiden dropdown adding blinkers merited consideration, BUT that was obvious to the masses(or so we figured): he was co-second ML choice + w/ the negatives of the trainer having horrible stats any way you diced them & nothing positive in the lone running line(no show of early speed, no heavy betting action, nothing).
IFFFF we were to take such a flyer, we'd rather've given a shot to similar-profile but higher-ML odds horses: 1(scratched), 4 & 6, even the debuter 3.
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Bottom Line re Contest Strategy: if we're to take either the ML fave OR Bravo(on one of the top three ML choices), we're going to demand just about everything be right-- since the masses will be all over such beasts.
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Race 8:
12 is a Lay...should get min. $2.70. Our contest choice not a pari bet: we would prefer to see an extra half-furlong in distance(when backing a closer), smaller-sized field, less opponents making a turf / route debut, either towering or very-rapidly increasing figs...
Basically our contest choice here backs up / complements Race 6's-- between both we have a very good chance of one finishing in the money.
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Race 10:
Our 5 scratched, so we've been auto-switched to the odds-on 7... Now we hope it finishes off the board, to get more contestants eliminated.
There don't seem to be any money bet opportunities here-- nothing sufficiently-high in odds to Lay-- best thing offered is the 8 @ max. $2.25 payoff...pass.
IFFF we'd had one of our other contenders scratched OR had some heavily-backed horse that could be tossed, we'd take a flyer on an Exacta Box....pass.
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EDIT:
Nice exacta-- $300+...but would've cost $50 to bet(5 boxed + 1 other underneath them). ..Too bad the fave held on in the show photo: very few elims today-- besides those who didn't log in both yesterday & today.
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PS Standings update up just after 10:30 PM last night...previously we've seen them up as soon as 6:30....
