Lousy field-- look for a surprise win by someone who has faced a fast pace last(at least two or more races in a row-- you want to confirm both the legitimacy of the fig(s) and demand a semblance of fitness), yet faded / been outrun by quite a bit at the end: today they may hold on for two reasons...vaunted MTH speed bias & no one here puts up decent closing numbers(vs. a better than average pace of race that is)...
*** Contenders in this category: 1/4/7, although the pace looks to be highly contested.
*** We nevertheless are not ready to risk on a win or out-of-the-money animal(which to boot might be strung out wide while fighting for the lead on this inside-favoring oval), esp. since the next two races are kind of tossups as well: we're looking for somebody semi-fit, not on a downward form cycle--and most importantly, rateable-- we'll take the 3. For now...but as always though-- scratches could change things, in particular here: lighten the projected early pace battle. Another advantage of our choice-- allows us to avoid the likely two co-faves.
*** BTW this race is a tossup-- most entrants here suffer from second- & third-itis + are in questionable form-- if you're inclined to take a shot, nobody is really out of it...there are a couple of longshot possibilities coming out of route races, IFFF either can get lucky: decent break / settle early not too far off the pace / get a good trip(may be able to slip thru, as the other jocks won't likely be focusing on either: 2 & 5.
What we want to avoid at all costs it to ride along with the masses on the vulnerable co-faves:
6: jock has 0 wins, 1 second from 22 Monmouth starts / horse has raced once in '07, once in '06... & is now in for a 5K tag after multiple close, in the money finishes in open Allowances / out of the care of its former Hall of Fame trainer / its win % smacks of 2nd-, 3rd-itis.....
***
8: cold trainer / second-itis record(esp. when you glance at '06, '07, Mth, 6f columns) & winless in '06 & '07 / + its last race was deceptively easy: it's entrymate ran interference for it on the lead, keeping other pace contesters at bay; then it got a breather around the final turn & early stretch, but still gave up the lead, while earning a sub-par fig that likely won''t be enough to beat this field.
Tossup, depending on who's ready to run(is on the juice) today:
*** 2: HAS TO pair up either 2nd or 10th race back to have a chance...pluses-- trainer has high win % from few starters & is not high-profile / won't attract undue parimutuel interest, jock is very capable. Not probable, but there are worse bets.
*** 3: as with above, MUST be ready to toss out its last fig & pair up previous one. Unfortunately, contrary to the 2, it'll be fighting for favoritism.
*** 4: we're counting on the Dutrow 'magic' here....yes, the layoff & price drop might give one pause-- but luring Castro aboard + today's easier class level(considerably lower than appears on paper btw) balance things out: this horse, if it finishes well here, may turn out to be a typical Dutrow win-while-rising-in-class-several-times-in-a-row...won't get a huge price, but this race won't likely see a big-price winner, not with 3-4 co-faves.
*** 5: HAS to run a career top fig just to contend here-- possible but not probable...& it's not sporting longshot ML odds.
*** 6: possible IFFFF first fraction is not too hot...nonwithstanding, it sports a coupla ifs/negs... jock's subpar numbers / debut over this oval / non-longshot ML odds...
*** 7: ML fave & Bravo-- if everything not sure/perfect, then this is one to avoid at all costs... It's the obvious horse to beat: this gelding looks as if it recently hit a late growth spurt(or, if you're a conspiracy theorist: suspiciously improved greatly & immediately fig-wise for its new trainer), BUT its last number was disappointing-- worse than its previous three(alhough still good enough to best these IF it does not continue downward)...if you feel it was due to the slightly-longer route distance, then you've got a play-- although at short odds. It does seem to perform better when laying a bit off the front, but here may have to set the pace-- although that may not be so bad: except for the 6, it may have the lead all to its own on this speed-friendly oval.
*** 1: does not look like it belongs in here AT ALL-- NONE of its lifetime figs make it a win contender here + its subpar-record trainer just does not win off the layoff to boot.
We'll take a bit of a risk & avoid the obvious crowd choice, risky because our choice is not a lock by any means: its debuting over an oval that does not favor at all its historical running style....but maybe Dutrow juice will allow it to lay much closer early.
ONLY TWO entrants class up & fit the race conditions here: co-faves 7 & 9. We'll go w/ the latter & avoid Bravo on the likely actual favorite(between the horse being a year older, maybe bouncing 2nd off long layoff & plane, possibly running into traffic trouble again)...
*** Others that 'might' grab a 'minor' piece of the purse(in order of probability): 4/8/10/6/3
*** Low-odds(strongly-favored) entrants that can be absolutely tossed from WIN consideration(Layed at an exchange): 3-- although it might be able to get a lower piece of the purse.
*** IF race goes off-the-turf, 12 has a great chance.
*** Again, this analysis is VERY preliminary / final choices can change depending on other race scratches...not just within the particular race, but also how sure our other contest race choices loom race-day.
*** Good luck, as always.
