133rd Ky. Derby 2007 ANALysis

Figures Chart available here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pSs3HzAvGM0BOfNCJP3tZcg

This year's running presents too many unknown factors, along with no outstanding locks...in our structured ticket below, of the first 6 contenders, any is just as liable to finish in the money as to trail the field at the finish. So, we will not make a serious investment; we will instead take a flyer on the Super. We will seek value and punish / downgrade contenders who project to attract more money.

Please realize above-mentioned and bet judiciously...after all, if we were so sure of our top two choices(longshots) we'd recommend Win wagers on them.

Before going any further: there's another bet today-- DelaHoya fight tonight. That will be a Dutch of DelaHoya win by KO & Mayweather to win fight outright.

Superfecta ticket:

20,6

with

1,3,8,10

with

18,5,7,17

with

12

640 combos.

Spreadsheet Abbreviations:

Calculations done in four stages, in order:

1. Based on figures, strongly weighted towards TPR.

2. Form cycle applied.

3. Workout form subsequent to last prep race, esp. over Churchill strip applied.

4. Final changes made based on Wet track, in order:

A. Race/workout performance

B. Wet breeding.

From Left to Right:

Post Position number

Whorse

Betting number- nothing provided yet... no entry / field designations. *see below for my rant on this.

ML odds.

Run---- Style from fastest to slowest: P(projects to set or dispute pace because of either having dominant early number or/and unwillingness to rate), OP(sets, disputes or prompts pace), BO(bit off- stalker, maybe prompter), CL(closer midpack, sometimes stalker), CLOS(closer- back of pack / straggler), CLOS FAR.

(Figure scale: 1.85 lengths per point.)

F1----- first half mile

POR---- number of race leader or closest opponent behind, if in lead.

Turn--- 2 furlong figure between first half mile and 6 furlong call.

E2----- 6F call

F3----- 6F to finish

TPR---- E2 + F3...we use this in lieu of a Final Fig.

VS----- same as POR

F1 + 3- serves as a tiebreaker of sorts...penalizing early sloth / awarding tractable early speed.

PP----- either projected OR highest-possible TPR

Form--- P(cycling upward, expect a gradual or better improvement from last or best effort), PP(very substantial improvement possible), PPP(huge, possibly dominating improvement possible), E(should duplicate last fig plus or minus a point or two), N(expect a figure decline, either due to declining form or because of facing a much higher race pace / class than it can handle)

Works-- workout form between last prep race & Derby post time...emphasis given to works over Churchill strip & the immediate 1½ weeks preceding Derby. P's number from one: very good impression, improving in form to two: outstanding impression, ready to run a career top / should make its presence felt in upcoming race to out of sight, ready to run by far the best race of its career & likely be a win contender. Neg - poor form or health W - will move up greatly in wet going vis a vis its estables dry track form.

Equipment & Medication changes.

Status-- this year left it blank-- refer to Superfecta ticket instead... you''ll see 2 win contenders, 4 solid in the money contenders, 4 have a chance to fill the bottom slot in your Tri's / Supers 1 might sneak into Super bottom slot if everything falls in place its way.

WET---- we're audibling with this category due to Weather... *(good wet breeding and or effort in wet race / workout) **(exceptional wet breeding or wet track record) ***(should contend for the win due to unbeaten wet record or big excuse in loss containing two or more dominating wet track efforts which could include a combination of any of the following: dominating win(s) by 3½+ lengths, usually in handily or ridden out fashion / multiple fastest of morning wet works). If left blank: Unknown...no wet races, not even wet works & wet breeding not especially good.

*BTW this is very poor service from Churchill Downs, as is the whole pre-Derby week...everything provided too late, including the famed PP Draw. They need to take a page from Boxing: how to better market by building anticipation. I would hold the Draw on the previous Sunday or Monday, Sunday garner much better ratings than the present weekday morning format. The way they do it now, it's only 1 to 1½ days before racetime when the final field & past performance data finally disseminate in print to the public-- this leaves too tight of a window especially for analysts & serious handicappers...exacerbated because another important day: KY Oaks falls on the eve.

Other missteps include not making a better event of the draw to determine order of selecting post positions, and not including the Oaks in the whole schema of things. Additionally, ESPN puts forth an extremely subpar effort with the draw-- they do not provide either a camera closeup or onscreen graphic for the purposes of detailing running progress!!!

Here's what i would do:

1. Make a whole weekend out of it--either switch the Oaks to Sunday, or add on Sunday a Grade 1/2 1-¼ Mile Dirt Stakes for older horses and/or a Grade 1 Turf Stakes.

2. Make a package of the the Oaks / Derby / Sunday Stakes-- have one combined televised Draw Day to Select Post Positions for all three, then a day or two later, in prime time, the actual Selection counterpart of it.

3. The program should be simultaneously streamed on the web.