Day's Wrap Up

Kentucky Derby

We weren't overly impressed with anyone before this race, and the slow final time bore this out...how very pedestrian & ho-hum this year's 3yo crop is.

(It's one of the reasons we only took a flyer bet in the Superfecta pool(BTW nice payoff w/ the fave on top, co-fave third, fourth-fave second, & the fourth-place finisher not that much of a longshot at 28-1... 29K+. Almost $9 million bet into this pool--that's what allowing 20 separate betting interests w/ no coupled entry / field will do for you!),

Although the race looked promising when 22-4/5 & 46(actually was 46-1/5+ but only 46 was flashed onscreen) was hung up early...they all backed off Hard Spun and he throttled the pace down considerably: the 6F & 1M splits were fairly subpar.

Besides the winner, no one else did any real running at the end except for the 4th place finisher- who actually made up ground on the winner after having to swing out 10 wide turning for home.

***

Credit should still be given to the winning horse and connections though:

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Jockey: Calvin "Borail" Borel turned in the stereotypical ground-saving ride he's become known for. This has been a sort of breakthrough year so far for this 20+ year veteran...he's been riding with extreme, obvious confidence: at the recent Keeneland meet he brought in some longshots and turned in some masterful rides on the Turf particularly, and these past few days at Churchill he's been on a zone.

Here in the Derby, he did crowd a horse or two when he cut over to the rail early and in the stretch, but those are slight indiscretions typically both unavoidable and forgiven due to the huge size of the field. The only thing we'd critique about the ride occurred very late:

excessive whipping at the end with the outcome kinda in the bag, as well as premature and overly-excited celebration just before the wire-- we briefly worried he'd fall off.

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Trainer: Carl Naftzger broke the 2y0 Breeders Cup winner / 2yo champ hex while doing it his way--with only 2 prep races this year. Actually, I believe the latter contributed greatly to breaking the hex: horses get so much in steroids- to say nothing of antiobiotics & other medicines- to withstand the rigors of racing / serious training and help to heal expected minor injuries and illnesses. What this does to the typical precocious 2yo is stunt its growth and make it too heavy: bone plates fuse, virtually stopping vertical growth, while piling on extra bone & muscle. The resultant body type is more suited to sprints than to marathons-- at the same time its 2yo lightly-raced counterparts get a chance to grow up in more unimpeded fashion / end up taller by following year. Who would you favor to win the Boston Marathon--somebody muscular but short or someone taller, longer-legged, leaner?

Naftzger withstood all criticism and stuck to his game plan...he also demonstrated how much of a stand-up guy he is by telling jockey Borel early that the mount would remain his-- despite getting calls from just about every top-name jockey's agent.

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Horse: Street Sense also deserves kudos for its athleticness: although he lags back early, he has quick acceleration & can make multiple moves in a race.

And his winning margin was deceivingly small-- the place horse was able to slow the pace down the backstretch in uncontested mode; had he been pressed, and thus finished out of the money-- Street Sense's winning margin would be 8+ lengths...maybe more with the tiring pacesetters causing extra traffic problems late.

So barring injury, unless someone very good is waiting in the sidelines and/or an extreme speed bias pops up at Pimlico or Belmont, Street Sense has an excellent chance to sweep the Triple Crown.

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On a different note, most of the commentators / announcers for the Derby need to go:

Mike Battaglia, Tom Durkin, Tom Hammond, Bob Neumeier, and Kenny Rice have for years regaled us with their inane banter and interviews, along with useless MOTO analysis and "insights". This year's telecast sunk to new lows past their already-low standards, with too many examples to waste time actually having to type out here-- don't know how some past interviewee hasn't bitch-slapped one of them already.

They resemble a casting of Tatoo, Grandpa Munster, Mister Rogers, Lenny, Squiggy, and Pee Wee Herman.

We can just picture these "ignorant sluts" to paraphrase SNL, waking up every morning feeling so witty and insightful... so unexpendable in their line of work...puleeze!

If the commentary and interviewing is going to be so useless while performed by such unattractive & dull characters-- heck, the governor of Kentucky came off much wittier and entertaining-- you might as well substitute the Beulah Twins.

We can think of so many worthwhile substitutes-- how about some pedigree & form/insider insights with say, Lauren Stich, Joe Takach, Jan Rushton...how about some expert fig, pace, structured bets & handicapping commentary from say, Ernie Dahlman, Jim Cramer, Dave Schwartz, Ken Massa, etc.

And if not substitute entirely, at the very least they each can be interviewed / given a short segment to present.

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DELAHOYA-MAYWEATHER

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Fight didn't live up to its hype-- but that specter always hung in the balance coming in: what with Mayweather's moving up two classes, brittle hands, size disadvantage, but speed & age advantage...he could turn the fight boring and ugly.

ALL the announcers & commentarists here were very disingenous at the end, proclaiming the fans got their money's worth-- while we wouldn't exactly rate it a flop, it certainly didn't match the hype.

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Mayweather: deserves the biggest knocks here...after so much running at the mouth he did very little to show how "great" he supposedly was.

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Delahoya: still relies too much on his left, he needs to bang / even lead with that good right he has. And his jab almost disappeared for this fight-- he threw it infrequently early: when he did it worked, and he stopped throwing it altogether the last 4/5 rounds.

Apart from that he does get high marks for his blocking punches / defense(he had to crouch down & lunge / chase his more elusive opponent, thus leaving himself more vulnerable in the process) and conditioning / preparation / strategy(vis a vis being at a speed disadvantage).

We feel he needed someone more authoritarian in his corner-- a Dundee, Steward, Mayweather Sr. to point out--nee scream out to jab more. Now Roach did keep pointing that out, but in too soft / calm of a tone. Maybe Roach was more worried about having Delahoya conserve energy for late, for DLH was very tense from the get go. Mayweather, in stark contrast, was way too relaxed at all times-- and it showed in his lackluster effort.

***

As far as our bet, we thought we had lost it late-- that DelaHoya would get the decision...had he just jabbed even a little bit in the later rounds, instead of looking for one big opening, he likely would've got the nod.

133rd Ky. Derby 2007 ANALysis

Figures Chart available here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pSs3HzAvGM0BOfNCJP3tZcg

This year's running presents too many unknown factors, along with no outstanding locks...in our structured ticket below, of the first 6 contenders, any is just as liable to finish in the money as to trail the field at the finish. So, we will not make a serious investment; we will instead take a flyer on the Super. We will seek value and punish / downgrade contenders who project to attract more money.

Please realize above-mentioned and bet judiciously...after all, if we were so sure of our top two choices(longshots) we'd recommend Win wagers on them.

Before going any further: there's another bet today-- DelaHoya fight tonight. That will be a Dutch of DelaHoya win by KO & Mayweather to win fight outright.

Superfecta ticket:

20,6

with

1,3,8,10

with

18,5,7,17

with

12

640 combos.

Spreadsheet Abbreviations:

Calculations done in four stages, in order:

1. Based on figures, strongly weighted towards TPR.

2. Form cycle applied.

3. Workout form subsequent to last prep race, esp. over Churchill strip applied.

4. Final changes made based on Wet track, in order:

A. Race/workout performance

B. Wet breeding.

From Left to Right:

Post Position number

Whorse

Betting number- nothing provided yet... no entry / field designations. *see below for my rant on this.

ML odds.

Run---- Style from fastest to slowest: P(projects to set or dispute pace because of either having dominant early number or/and unwillingness to rate), OP(sets, disputes or prompts pace), BO(bit off- stalker, maybe prompter), CL(closer midpack, sometimes stalker), CLOS(closer- back of pack / straggler), CLOS FAR.

(Figure scale: 1.85 lengths per point.)

F1----- first half mile

POR---- number of race leader or closest opponent behind, if in lead.

Turn--- 2 furlong figure between first half mile and 6 furlong call.

E2----- 6F call

F3----- 6F to finish

TPR---- E2 + F3...we use this in lieu of a Final Fig.

VS----- same as POR

F1 + 3- serves as a tiebreaker of sorts...penalizing early sloth / awarding tractable early speed.

PP----- either projected OR highest-possible TPR

Form--- P(cycling upward, expect a gradual or better improvement from last or best effort), PP(very substantial improvement possible), PPP(huge, possibly dominating improvement possible), E(should duplicate last fig plus or minus a point or two), N(expect a figure decline, either due to declining form or because of facing a much higher race pace / class than it can handle)

Works-- workout form between last prep race & Derby post time...emphasis given to works over Churchill strip & the immediate 1½ weeks preceding Derby. P's number from one: very good impression, improving in form to two: outstanding impression, ready to run a career top / should make its presence felt in upcoming race to out of sight, ready to run by far the best race of its career & likely be a win contender. Neg - poor form or health W - will move up greatly in wet going vis a vis its estables dry track form.

Equipment & Medication changes.

Status-- this year left it blank-- refer to Superfecta ticket instead... you''ll see 2 win contenders, 4 solid in the money contenders, 4 have a chance to fill the bottom slot in your Tri's / Supers 1 might sneak into Super bottom slot if everything falls in place its way.

WET---- we're audibling with this category due to Weather... *(good wet breeding and or effort in wet race / workout) **(exceptional wet breeding or wet track record) ***(should contend for the win due to unbeaten wet record or big excuse in loss containing two or more dominating wet track efforts which could include a combination of any of the following: dominating win(s) by 3½+ lengths, usually in handily or ridden out fashion / multiple fastest of morning wet works). If left blank: Unknown...no wet races, not even wet works & wet breeding not especially good.

*BTW this is very poor service from Churchill Downs, as is the whole pre-Derby week...everything provided too late, including the famed PP Draw. They need to take a page from Boxing: how to better market by building anticipation. I would hold the Draw on the previous Sunday or Monday, Sunday garner much better ratings than the present weekday morning format. The way they do it now, it's only 1 to 1½ days before racetime when the final field & past performance data finally disseminate in print to the public-- this leaves too tight of a window especially for analysts & serious handicappers...exacerbated because another important day: KY Oaks falls on the eve.

Other missteps include not making a better event of the draw to determine order of selecting post positions, and not including the Oaks in the whole schema of things. Additionally, ESPN puts forth an extremely subpar effort with the draw-- they do not provide either a camera closeup or onscreen graphic for the purposes of detailing running progress!!!

Here's what i would do:

1. Make a whole weekend out of it--either switch the Oaks to Sunday, or add on Sunday a Grade 1/2 1-¼ Mile Dirt Stakes for older horses and/or a Grade 1 Turf Stakes.

2. Make a package of the the Oaks / Derby / Sunday Stakes-- have one combined televised Draw Day to Select Post Positions for all three, then a day or two later, in prime time, the actual Selection counterpart of it.

3. The program should be simultaneously streamed on the web.