Monmouth Park Survival at the Shore Online Contest updated daily, + Simulcast Series Challenge(when they occur- every 3-5 weeks) + regular bet picks

Survival at the Shore Strategy http://monmouthpark.com/survival/default.asp

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1. "Concentrate on surviving": the contest is meet-long(& likely won't make it to the end this year)!!! It's just too risky to take shots early in the contest-- 3 daily races bring a false sense of security / may lead one to risk taking a shot in one race when one has fairly secure choices in the other two. Secure, schmecure...this is horseracing!!! All it takes is one encountering running trouble + the other one scratching late & transferring one's choice to a perhaps false favorite....now your contest life depends on some longshot flyer. You might get away with this for a day or two or week, but soon enough you'll get your comeuppance. And even when you take a shot, you may find your choice's possible longshot odds shrunk significantly at post time. Take today's action:

"In spite of not one but TWO 3/5 winners" more than 1/14th were eliminated(7.2051%)...that rate, plus days when faves are not so successful, should probably guarantee the meet outlasts the contest...'especially when we additionally factor in all those eliminated during weekends(esp. holidays) & earlier-post days-- today, more than 1000 entrants(just under 1/3) did not sign in!! We hardly think they were availing themselves of the one free pass allowed in this contest right on the very first day.....so count practically all of them out this weekend, add the usual daily lose rate, and we may see 2/3 - 3/4 gone by Monday end.

You can't win this contest if you're not in it at the end-- this year just concentrate on outlasting all. IF we're wrong, and you see with 1-2 weeks remaining that the meet will end up with not all eliminated, then you can start taking some shots. So.....

2. For reasons previously stated, we place much more value on a horse that figures to be around at the end / have a fairly high probability of being in the money, even if underlayed / offered at short-odds and even if others(collectively) as just as likely to contend for the win slot..RATHER than some overlayed hit or miss longshot that is just as likely to win as to finish off the board. HOWEVER....

3. We scrutinize the first three morning line choices, esp. all projected heavy favorites ad nauseam and demand no weaknesses. All competing jocks will be fixated on stopping the favorite, or at least not allowing it an easy trip, and more importantly-- only when faves go down do significant numbers of contestants fall by the wayside. The only advisable- nay, obligatory time to take a shot-- is in the face of vulnerable favorites...say, when no one in a race projects to post a pace & final time par number.

4. Submit picks early, as soon as advance entries posted!!! You can always edit them at any time until 30 min. to first post. If you put it off until you finish some other project, something else will come up, then you'll wake up late, the internet connection will flummox, your computer will act up....Murphy's Law.

Our Simulcast Series Challenge Strategy: http://monmouthpark.com/ssc.asp

Most are in a Live Bankroll w/p/s format, 10 mandatory bets(no max.) each for min. a tenth of the 'starting' bankroll...2 entries allowed, top finishers get Ntra & World Series berths...keep your live winnings in addition to substantial cash prizes.

This is our favorite tournament format-- most closely resembles real life.

We want to utilize a different approach though-- parlaying w/ in the money.

1. Entry one is a 100% mostly-Show parlay, w/ some tweaks along the way: entire bankroll is parlayed from the first bet until it grows to 6-12 times starting size, depending on frequency & $ size of longshots at contest tracks... thereafter, min. flat bets are made to satisfy contest requirements. Live odds are scrutinized in all remaining contest races and saver min. bets are placed on any live longshots.

2. Entry two is ditto above but only @ 50%: half the bankroll is bet initially, those winnings added to un-bet money, halved again, then on to the next bet, and so forth and so on...in other words, this progression allows for one loss after each win.

3. Bets are usually for Show, sometimes Place based on field size & projected payoffs. How we determine potential payoff?

4. Calculate based on your horse finishing in the money, then take from the rest of the field the top 3 based on pool size & drop number two from that group. That is a fairly realistic result: not ALL top 3 choices will finish in the money, while still realistically projecting the top fave to hit the board...gravy time if it does not.

5. Early in the contest, when our expected price is under $4.00, the entire bet goes to Show(or Place), but if the win odds are 7/2 or greater, then 2/3 will go to show, 1/3 to win. When the expected price is over $4 we tend to forego Win until its payoff nears $20.

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Top prize eligibility usually requires growing starting bankroll 4 to 10 times...in the money / grabbing one of the usually four national championship berths at stake should be accomplished somewhere between 4 to 6 times.

If starting bankrolls are $100 when say, a 25 / 35-1 longshot comes in, figure more than one person hit it with $10 on the nose....and in that group some will additionally have another winning $10 bet on some middle-priced winner + another $10 on some slightly-overlayed fave...for a total bankroll of @ 450-500.... so one would need to get the bankroll progression to about 6X starting size, then finish requirements off with $10 bets the rest of the way, esp. on the nose of any potential longshot contenders.

If two such longshots come in, figure one or two folks at least, will have both.

Three or more, count on multiple folks having all but one...so now you need 10-12 times starting size.

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Why don't we go for longshots ourselves? It's a lottery..some races will have multiple live longshots, so the contest becomes a glorified dart tournament... plus we feel we can handicap well. Additionally, it's real money, not play money at stake...taking wild shots with play money & ideally low entry fees is not as costly as when one gets to keep all accumulated winnings.

PS This last contest's format is slightly changed-- only win / place allowed. Our altered strategy here is 50% progression in a 2/1 - place/win format.

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Parimutuel Bets

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During the course we may find bettable opportunities at this or any other track-- we will post as we find them...they may run the gamut from exotic betting to Laying(betting to lose at an Exchange).