MONDAY
We were busy / not around... this was a wide-open race among several closers-- the onus should've been(as always) to ONLY consider the longest shots-- going by final odds, we would've been considering #'s 4, 5 & 7 @ 12, 10 & 26-1 odds respectively(yes, 9-10 to 1 is the cutoff point for inclusion in speculative bets) . Now, who knows how the odds would've been trending & been @ 5 min. to post(@ the safe limit to try and get contest bet in). Maybe the middle-odds horse had been coming down from 8 or 9-- meaning toss out. Maybe the biggest longshot had been coming from 30+-1, in case it would've merited carrying all our contest dollars exclusively.
When we have a LONE LARGE odds contender, 25-1 is our cutoff point-- above it we single it, below it we combo bet it with any other(s) double-digit odds contenders. In case you're wondering why, a 20-1 contender's odds can drop to the teens after the final off-shore money dump... you can then wind up with a single loser w/ odds in the high teens and some other missed winner @ odds just slightly lower, say low teens, that you had tossed from consideration. Anyhow, at that odds level we need twice / thrice as many winners to win the contest--keep in mind we'll only hit between 1 in 10 to 1 in 3 bets... we're better off collecting something at a much higher hit rate; to that end-- sometimes a solid contender @ single digit odds, that is fairly certain to hit the board, may be a better option than boxing 2 or 3 uncertain contenders with odds in the teens each... the total NET wouldn't be that much higher & the hit rate would be much lower.... a risk / reward consideration.
BTW above horses finished 1st, 3rd & 7th: either we would've bet all three(IF the 5 odds had been higher early), or only combined the winner w/ the rear-finishing one, or exclusively singled that larger-odds trailer.
Of note, we did NOT like the place horse no matter @ what enticing odds it would've been offered: Migliore still tends to ride too much towards the front early on(even though he's stated he realizes the late bias)-- with closers he tends to ride mid-pack & start his late move a bit too early... with today's result a typical microcosm: he finishes close but ends up getting passed late.
PS earlier we've stated we dutch contest contenders-- we wish to change this to a reverse Dutch: this rewards larger odds AND minimizes the ground made up on us when the largest-odds contender wins, by those who've exclusively singled the winner w/ a full amount bet of $100. In this race's case the 7's odds are 26-1, 5 = 9 or 10-1, 4 = 11 or 12.... here 26 is a little more than 10 + 12 combined, so $55 to 60 can go on the 7, $25 on the 4, the left over(from $100) can go to the 9.
If say, we had tossed the 9, then the two bet amounts could've been $70 & 3o. Of course, you can reward extra brownie dollars to any contender, based on your handicapping.
WEDNESDAY
As with Monday, there're a few contenders, led odds be your final arbiter. Also one caveat-- any horse with the usual near the front style, which we eliminate outright, has a chance to win IF it endures some early mishap that forces the rider to settle early & make a move late OR maybe a new rider elects to take back early-- prime upset chance for some no-name rider to perhaps bring in a longshot):
1- lousy post for a closer & low % rider... demand great odds premium.
2- deceptively-good jock that shouldn't attract undue betting action.
4- ditto above, except the trainer is 0 in the money for 2007.
10- disregard Hol races, where beaten by others here...if jock is smart enough to lag back early, the win is in sight.
11- demand odds premium, rider not so hot.
BTW above are POST POSITION numbers only.
Good Luck.
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