SARATOGA RACE 2
The only thing to report here is that #7 looks like very poor value(2nd ML) & will likely be overwhelmed by a faster than accustomed to Pace of Race. We recommend that you leave it out of your exotics tickets, and those of you with access to an Exchange, should LAY(bet that it will NOT Win) it.
Edit: paid a bit over $2.60... a very decent Lay price.
MONMOUTH RACE 3
Win Candidates:
Race looks like a 'possible' race meltdown, favoring a closer.
Who we like, in order:
3-- Will likely lay closest to frontrunners, and be able to take over late.
1-- This pacesetter has the early numbers to wire the field. It is NOT a likely winner though, in light of negative class drops. HOWEVER, one must respect a possible loose frontrunner at Monmouth...to boot at a price. You just never know-- the jocks on the other frontrunners may decide to allow it to scamper alone, figuring it is physically compromised. This will be a win or finish last type, so what you can do is hook it up in Exotics exclusively in the win slot.
2-- the best pacesetter...improving and rateable...again, speed always dangerous at this oval.
4-- backup closer, in case #3 suffers some trip misfortune(bottled up inside for one) or physical ailment(headache? lol) today. We don't like it that much, as it seems to be infected with seconditis, but should be played because the early pace will likely collapse.
5-- second best pacesetter. Yes, it's a bit down the contender line, but a case can be made for a win: firstly-- it's improving, second-- there's a good chance #1 won't run a lick today, and should #2 suffer some start mishap(look at the head-on start video-- these animals often break like bumper cars), it would leave it on a lone lead.
Eliminations:
#6 is a false favorite-- will have to run faster early than accustomed to AND will not get the luxury of an open lead like in the past. We recommend you toss it. Lay it in Exchanges.
So, let odds be your guide in how you bet this race. For example, make exacta tickets thusly:
1 over 3 & 4. IF it wins, it will have run the other speedsters into the ground, so toss them.
3 over 4, 2 & 5.
4 over 3, 2 & 5.
5 over 3 & 4.
You can play a little more on the lesser-paying combos AND/OR less on tickets including 1 & 5, as those are more saver / backup AND will be longshots anyhow.
Edit: Exacta paid $47+
Lay paid a whopping $3. If you parlayed the first two lays, you've almost doubled your money
MONMOUTH RACE 5
# 3 offers the best value here....#1 can be totally tossed out.
Who can finish second? Who knows-- #5 is wildly inconsistent not only in final times, but in the type of early pace it sets...world-class one race, very slow the next. #6 will be facing a much tougher pace today AND W/O being clear on the lead.
Edit: #1 late scratched. Too bad, we were thinking of a Place bet, with the Lay Parlay money, on the winner #3.
BTW we rarely bet Win: we stick to extremes-- either Show / Place or Exactas / Tris / Supers.
MONMOUTH RACE 8
Not a lot of value here.
#5-- can wire these... is it ready off such a long layoff?
#6-- has back numbers to win here...however, seems to be infected with seconditis... BUT attracts Lezcano aboard...hhmmmm let odds be your final judge.
#3-- can win or finish last. Seems to be going down the class ladder...Lezcano jumps off.
#7-- has a chance, esp. because NONE of the above can be blindly relied upon.
The next one has a chance at the bottom slots ONLY:
#4
The others are hopelessly outclassed:
#'s 2 & 1.
Blech.... odds too low on everyone here.....
ELLIS PARK RACE 6
Nothing too detailed to report, except that #9(3rd ML) is a very poor value: sports lousy figs and that running style is a kiss of death at this track / distance. LAY it.
It MIGHT clunk up in the money, but NOT Win: there are just too many others that can beat it:
#'s 10, 2 & 3 are itching to make up for tardy starts last out & sport various changes like jock, blinkers, lasix... & don't forget to calculate the possibilty of a marked improvement in second lifetime race for two of them.
As well, all three debuters look live in here, to boot, only one horse in here has topped the race pars for pace or final time: #10
Edit: NO money to be made here...to boot a large field to deal with. We were offered just under $2.32 payoff on #9 and decided it was too measly. However, if YOU took it and kept the LAY PARLAY going, you're now @ 230%. Once you hit 300%, pull back original unit + 1 unit profit, and restart a new progression.
ELLIS PARK RACE 9
We won't be betting this race, but: #8 offers very, very good value...while #3 is the totally underlayed opposite.
Edit: Looks like we were on the same wavelength as everyone else, as our choice became very undervalued-- drifting between 8/5 & 2-1, and the projected undervaluee went off at a smidgen under 3-1...and actually won.
ARLINGTON PARK RACE 7
We're going to be LAYING #8(co-second ML)... it looks like it won't be able to handle today's expected Pace of Race.
Edit: wound up being favored... don't know why: Bill Mott doesn't use cobra venom(squeaky clean trainer) & Rene Douglas(the Jerry Bailey of Chicago tracks) wouldn't've been allowed to carry the horse during the race anyhow. Got a sliver under $2.60 payoff.
SACRAMENTO FAIR RACE 4
Heavy ML fave #1 obviously looks strong... although it will likely be pushed by the live debuter... no money to be made, and no certainty either. However, since four of these area closely bunched odds-wise behind the fave, we may be able to find playable LAY odds:
we will look first at #5, then at #3.
Edit: First choice 5 offered @ $2.29 - 2.32, second choice 3 offered @ $2.10....guess which we took?
If YOU've been matching our LAY Parlay, you should be @ 294%, almost triple your starting unit.340%...time to pull back & re-start. We passed once, are @ 269%.296%
We recommend you pull back now, since only one more betting race remains today, we'll post amounts under that race.
DEL MAR RACE 7
Win Candidates:
#5-- the one to beat...projects to be alone on the lead AND to boot is improving both pace and final time from race to race. The fly in the ointment is already-beaten #8, who may go on a kamikaze dueling mission with blinkers added. If so:
#7-- can take it all...what with getting an extra ½ furlong + a possible huge fig leap in its second career race. SCR
These next are more saver / bottom exotics slots candidates. Their win chance depends on the top pacesetter getting cooked AND the top closer suffering a bad trip.
Let's move both the following to the scratchee's slot... as they're both double-digit odds.
#'s 6 & 3 The former should be offered at generous odds... for that reason alone it could even deserve a Win Slot Saver bet.
And let's relegate the following two(2 & 9) to bottom of exotics slots ONLY....AND not together or directly underneath #5(in other words, ONLY one fave/co-fave per ticket.
A further notch below those is:
#2-- MUST break cleanly AND get a clear trip(not get bottled up inside or forced to loop everyone)... will likely be UNDERLAYED.
An even further notch below above BUT offering great value:
#9-- is improving numbers-wise, but needs a fast, contested pace to have the best chance.
If you're playing Super / Tri, #8 has a small chance at the third / fourth / fifth slots. We will look to LAY it.
Let's Lay 8, and use that projected win money for exotics-- and leave #8 "completely out" of all exotics... or only underneath two longshots. BTW that price will likely be $2.45
EDIT 1: We recommend you pull back the same amount as us: 215%, and bet the remaining 69%...44% for us. You can now bank TWO units profit, as well as the original starting unit...leaving a bet for this race of 40% Unit.
We have a goal of a minimum 125% daily profit. So, we will bank that & original unit....then bet the remaining 71% Unit.
EDIT 2: WOW.... almost everyone went for the lead-- setting a fast 21.8 first fraction-- #'s 2 & 6 were up with the expected 5 & 8...as well, #'s 3 & 4 were stalking right on the heels of those first four battlers. What the??? The jocks must've found Valenzuela's secret cocaine stash just before the race...
And as for #8-- looks like the blinkers allowed it to relax early...instead of the expected......
We actually got shut out of a bet here--- the last two minutes to post nothing was offered on #8.
We'll next take a peek at a couple of Penn National & Evangeline Downs races...
Edit: found nothing there... will get a head start on tomorrow.
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