CRC CALDER RACE 1
This race does not have a reliable, committed AND dominant pacesetter...could wind up as a fast multi-horse early duel, the opposite-- tentative, slow early bunchup, or even possibly a stolen, lone lead by anyone.
It does not seemingly offer much single-race Exotics value... maybe DD / Pk3 is doable depending on the contender odds in those later races.
Possible Winners:
6-- Looks like a righteous favorite: is lightly-raced w/ ascending pace & final figs, something you rarely see in low claiming ranks. To boot, it's coming off a not so great trip and gets a rider switch to the Jerry Bailey of Calder. Top Contender. Don't be too enthused, though: it's ML fave & there are other contenders.
8-- Similar profile to above, only to a lesser extent. It's coming off two brutal trips & getting a rider switch to an experienced journeyman. The only chink in its armor is that it hasn't YET posted a decent turn time...this could be a function of bad trips & rides so far-- or a permanent defect. The pp draw is not great BUT it affords it a chance to track & sit just off its main rival. Win contender if some misfortune befalls #6, although note it's listed as ML second fave / possible race co-fave.
2-- Faced a much superior Pace of Race last time, than any of these are used to...possible...maybe at a price.
4-- Could wind up as lone pacesetter in the clear, HOWEVER-- early pace number is inferior. Not likely, but if offered at sufficiently high odds, could merit a Win slot saver in your exotics.
1-- Rail horses with a closing or pressing style always pose a dilemma-- either they get perfect or brutal trip...esp. depending on whether you didn't bet them, LOL.
Last out it posted a decent number in spite of practically losing all chance at the start, then being rushed to the lead. However, it will offer very poor value as ML third fave while being piloted by inferior jock.
The following horse, although NOT a win candidate, is very reliable, and usually posts its usual fig no matter how fast / slow the Pace of Race:
3-- Merits inclusion in the lower slots of your exotics.
Tossouts:
7-- inferior figs and seemingly poor form to boot. Although, any large longshot, as this horse projects to be-- is excusable to insert in bottom of exotics slots. Anyone can clunk up in the money, after the main contenders get done beating each other up... it doesn't hurt to include large longshots in the lower slots for $1.
LAYS:
for those of you with access to Betting Exchanges-- we will look to lay either 1 or 3...preferrably 3 IFFFFF offered @ playable odds.
EDIT: 1 offered @ $2.37....we passed...mainly because it was not our first choice(for throwout), & the more others get scratched, the less the chances of losing(the opposite of when Backing: betting a horse to win). As well post position 1 is very dangerous to Lay, no matter how bad the contender-- esp. one not part of the early pace. In fact, we only like to Lay someone on the rail that we can safely toss out as a projected disadvantaged frontrunner.
And one more reason: the very first race of the day is good to watch in case of any unexpected bias.. weather patterns can greatly influence track maintenance.
Of course, if there was plenty of betting value, we might've been tempted to make an exception-- but this race just screamed PASS.
IN MONEY BETS:
6 could be a candidate, depending on whether race betting develops into multiple horses vying for favorite-- as opposed to one heavy favorite. Win odds and lower pool handles will decide this come post time.
EDIT: 1/5
We were getting ready to suggest Win Dutching 6 & 2... then the odds plunged to the bottom on the fave.
Race unfolded(& ended) pretty much as thought. Don't know what the rider of #1 was doing attending such a multi-horse pace duel.
CRC CALDER RACE 4
Quick, concise analysis-- we're passing this race.
1-- Looks like top contender. MUST get clean trip...not crazy about the jock.
6-- May be able to clear early... a better alternative than getting hung outside its main two early rivals.
4-- May be the best pacesetter...has faced much better while getting outrun late...may also finish up the track.
5-- Looks like a tossout: vulnerable to today's Pace of Race...very underlayed.
Other possibles, should 1 encounter trouble & speedsters get cooked by speed duel:
8 & 3
The riders of #'s 6 & 5 must've been intimidated & overly impressed by the odds of the favorite: #6, who can set the fastest fractions of any here, backed off fairly slow fractions, allowing the fave a clear early lead...while #5 took way back to oblivion. ANNNddddd, for the second time today we notice Segundo Caballero too close to the early pace while on a closer drawn on the rail-- only this time his mount fell back a bit & re-rallied.
CRC CALDER RACE 7
Race looks like a tossup. Here's two you might throw OUT:
4-- which is also a prime LAY candidate.
8-- we're not crazy about...although it's hard to get odds like those on Lopez.
We backed off Laying #4 because #3, the only other pace rival, sometimes does not race on the lead-- exactly what happened today, allowing #4 to set a lone lead and just last at the wire.
CRC CALDER RACE 8
3 looks strongest here: superior turn time & early pace...dropping from higher level.... Pascacio Lopez aboard.
1 looks like a LAY candidate.
The winner, #6, took a ton of money in debut for 50K tag-- 9/5...and again took a ton on the drop here to 12½K-- 5/2...and aired. Our choice, #3, needs to learn to relax: stumbled out of the gate and then rushed up to the lead-- only to have to be snatched up to prevent running up on the heels of the frontrunners...effectively dooming its chances.
DMR DELMAR RACE 4
This is who we like, in order...notice the gaps / groupings(ML in parentheses to ensure odds / value guide our betting here):
#11(6-1)
#4(30-1)
#10(5-2)
_______
#3(3-1)
_______
#2(5-1)
#6(6-1)
_________
#9(20-1)
#1(12-1)
#8(15-1)
You can base your Super ticket on those... for example:
#11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)
with
#3(3-1) / #11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)
with
#2(5-1) / #6(6-1) / #3(3-1) / #11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)
with
#9(20-1) / #1(12-1) / #8(15-1) / #2(5-1) / #6(6-1) / #3(3-1) / #11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)
= 216 Combos.
Get into the habit of writing ML & actual odds next to saddlecloth number... and as the actual odds diverge, you can move up or down a notch or two(or even eliminate) the affected selectees, as appropriate.
That helps you save money / pare down a ticket when necessary, as well as catch / reward higher payoffs.
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