PHA-- PHILADELPHIA RACE 6
Race where no one has run to par. Additionally, the odds-on favorite is vulnerable and the obvious contenders sport suspicious $$ drops and/or layoffs.
1-- Its pace figure is inferior to #8...thus will not get an open breather while having to run faster early...this is a very long sprint...you do the math.
So who is eligible to win then?
6-- Its lone 2yo race, despite slow break, is alone enough to contend-- w/o even taking into account a better break, expected improvement as a 3yo, etc. HOWEVER, the long break and steep class drop, w/o at least one more try at the MSW level-- or even a higher claiming price-- especially after attracting substantial handle in its debut-- makes it a tossout... to boot, it likely won't even command value odds.
8-- We hate to see such a long layoff after a sudden, improved effort. Still, it's an obvious contender. However, should something be wrong with it or doesn't break well, #1 could then be left alone on an open lead.
7-- Eligible to pick up the pieces of the pace duel, expect improved effort after an entire ½ year of races on the wrong surface and/or with trip mishaps.
2 and 5-- Very, very interesting debuters. Will carry tons of odds value in a race with subpar foes(ergo can still win the race with a BELOW average effort). VERY LIVE, do NOT leave out of your tickets.
3-- Debuter with supbpar connections and pedigree leaning towards late development and route racing.
4-- Not a lot to recommend numbers-wise...will carry a price though... doesn't need to improve by that much to have a chance here against these numbnuts.
EDIT: There's your $600 Triple, folks-- 7/8/2 ... 7 went off at decent 7½-1.
CRC-- CALDER RACE 5
Race boils down to two possibilities:
A. Which pacesetter imposes its will: 1 or 4...and whether a possible multi-horse duel cooks them enough for:
B. Whether one of these closers: 2 or 8 will have a good, clean enough trip to run them down.
Dang, scratches leave field down to these four: 1(Even)/3(20-1)/4(3-5)/5(8-1)
MTH-- MONMOUTH PICK THREE RACES 6/7/8
RACE 6: 2(4-1)/1(3-1)/7(6-1) ....(odds of main tossouts: 9-5, 5, 6)
RACE 7: 2(4-1)/3(9/2) ............(odds of main tossouts: 3, 7-2, 6, 6)
RACE 8: 4(3-1)/7(12-1)/2(15-1) W/ savers 1(9-5)/3(10-1)/6(4-1)/5(5-2)
TICKETS--
MAIN ONE:
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
4/7/2
18 combos
BACKUP--
btw we're gonna include #7 in the sixth...should be backup, but its odds will be ok.
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
1/3/6/5
24 combos
IFFF you wish to have more money, in this backup, on the higher-odds entrants, then create:
BACKUP2--
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
3/6
12 combos
Since we didn't pare anyone off first coupla races, the main ticket will need to have substantially more money per combo bet.
EDIT: 6th race--give bonus points to #1, none to #7.
Those of you real afraid of #4, can hedge your Pk3 tickets by keying it on top of exactas here w/ main contenders: 4 over 2/1/7 Do it Dutch style, this way you get a guaranteed return of 3-1
EDIT2: We could've also just included #4 in our Pk3's.... but this way we'd be more likely to cash something in case someone surprises in the following legs.
MTH-- MONMOUTH RACE 6
Looks like a possible pace meltdown-- although that's not a guarantee. Horses' connections can read the DRF...sometimes you get most holding back, allowing one or two to steal away early.
Who we like in order:
2-- Look for a fig jump from troubled debut. As long as it gets a clean trip / not buried inside.
1-- Whichever one of these two that gets the better trip should win here.
7-- May be able to stalk duelers, take over, and hold closers off...esp. if they encounter traffic problems.
5-- Unlikely...Actually a LAY candidate. ALTHOUGH its new connections may have something up their sleeves.
4-- Actually possesses best pace and final numbers...to boot it can rate a bit. BUT it's infected with seconditis & will be severely underlayed. At best it should be used in bottom slots only & NOT under other favored entrants. LAY candidate.
3-- Still more unlikely. Loses rider Cotto to boot.
In conclusion, we would only use 2/1/7 on top. Bet a little extra on 2...maybe on 7 as well if odds are generous...bet even less on 1 if odds wind up very low.
EDIT: #'s 1 & 2 bumped each other at the start, trailed the field early.
MTH-- MONMOUTH RACE 7
Two possible winners-- either 2 holds them all off OR 3 does it from behind.
The other two highly-regarded contenders, 1 & 7 are only lower slots contenders.... and will be severely underlayed if vying for favoritism.
EDIT: #'s 2 & 3 went off @ 5/2 & 7/2. However, at an exchange you got 9/2 & 5. So, if you did a Win Dutch-- at the track your return would be just over Double, while @ exchange you'd almost Triple your starting bet.
EDIT2: #'s 3 & 4 bothered each other at the start, 3 trailed the field early, finished a fairly close fourth..
MTH-- MONMOUTH RACE 8
4-- Might coast all the way on an unchallenged early lead.
7-- Has been saddled all of 2008 with races that don't demonstrate its true capabilities: from initial two off a long layoff to wrong surface / distance to troubled and/or vs bias trips. Great value.
5-- An enigma inside a riddle wrapped in a question-- at times looks like a future star, at times throws up mediocre figs without a seeming excuse. Low ML odds & Bravo aboard guarantee little value. Let's leave this one for underneath slots .... possibly savers on top, but only hooked w/ longshots. NOW....if the public lets this horse get off 4-1 or over, then it's another story.
1-- Capable of taking it all, but as ML fave, let's relegate to underneath slots & on top of longshots....just like 5.
6-- Has been crying for a race with a fast early pace in order to do the most damage. Will offer better value than 5 & 1...although not too much more.
2-- Ditto above, EXCEPT it will sport very, very juicy odds. Deserves inclusion in top slot just on that alone.
3-- Mini-me version of above 2. Among the closers, it will all depend on who gets best trip.
EDIT: #4 stumbled at the start, rushed to the lead, then faded to just lose the show photo.
#6 much the best despite 4 wide trip.
#1 had perfect stalking trip on the fence, which opened up for it to scoot thru... still couldn't get the job done.
MTH-- MONMOUTH PICK THREE RACES 6/7/8
RACE 6: 2(4-1)/1(3-1)/7(6-1) ....(odds of main tossouts: 9-5, 5, 6)
RACE 7: 2(4-1)/3(9/2) ............(odds of main tossouts: 3, 7-2, 6, 6)
RACE 8: 4(3-1)/7(12-1)/2(15-1) W/ savers 1(9-5)/3(10-1)/6(4-1)/5(5-2)
TICKETS--
MAIN ONE:
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
4/7/2
18 combos
BACKUP--
btw we're gonna include #7 in the sixth...should be backup, but its odds will be ok.
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
1/3/6/5
24 combos
IFFF you wish to have more money, in this backup, on the higher-odds entrants, then create:
BACKUP2--
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
3/6
12 combos
Since we didn't pare anyone off first coupla races, the main ticket will need to have substantially more money per combo bet.
EDIT: 6th race-- give bonus points to #1, none to #7.
Those of you real afraid of #4, can hedge your Pk3 tickets by keying it on top of exactas here w/ main contenders: 4 over 2/1/7 Do it Dutch style, this way you get a guaranteed triple return
EDIT2: We could've also just included #4 in our Pk3's.... but this way we'd be more likely to cash something in case someone surprises in the following legs.
DMR-- DELMAR RACE 7
Of the non-debuting horses, we rate them in the following order:
12-- stands out over the rest: has the best fig by 3 lengths... and as well early pace fig by 5 lengths.
8-- barely edges out 7, and at much better odds
7-- then there's a 4 length gap to the next two, who also sport worse early pace numbers.
6-- edges out 5 but lags way farther back early.
5-- be advised, though, that:
NONE of the experienced runners can run to race pars, so.... inspect very minutiously (don't know why the spellchecker is flagging this word) the debuters!!!
EDIT: Annnddd bingo! Firster #4 wins, and coming in second-- #5...the best value of the five entrants with a race under their belt. #12 was done in by the post, being unusually close to early pace and strange, meandering trip... none of the debuters went for the lead, forcing horses more accustomed to closing to take over that chore.
EVD-- EVANGELINE DOWNS RACE 9
6-- Stands out. The rest fight it out for second, they are--- in order:
1-- Poor value, as its entrymate has no chance, although looks second best.
4
7
Tossouts: 1A & 2 The latter is a LAY candidate.
EDIT: Pretty much went as prognosticated. Of note, #2 seemed to be making a threatening move but shuffled back in the stretch....although it's debatable whether it was going to reach the leader. Paid $2.40 Lay price btw.
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