One of our clients is running here, so we'll post some handicapping thoughts on this race...which seems fairly susceptible to a longshot winner:
PP# (ML odds)
1: Scratched
2 (12-1) Doesn't compete well on numbers...UNLESS if you factor in lengths lost due to traffic issues in its debut-- speaking off-- second career race makes it eligible for a big fig jump. As well it could be the recipient of a perfect rail trip... or the total opposite. This horse could win as likely as finish up the track. Nevertheless, longshot odds demand inclusion. Contender.
3 (4-1) Offers very poor value & will draw too much attention with Gomez aboard. Yes, anyone attracting Gomez aboard for the first time merits a long look; but according to our numbers, it rates poorly on both pace & final time. Even if say, Gomez attempted a change to a closing style, the final number would have to improve by many lengths to contend here. Toss-Out. (PS now, if the ML odds situation was reversed, it would merit a bet on the hope of a turnaround w/ Gomez.)
4 (5/2) Speedster merits respect-- esp. w/ Bejarano aboard for the first time. However, #8 may make it run faster early than it likes. Otherwise, should #8 not get to the front, it could wind up controlling the pace. Coin toss either way...won't offer value. Marginal Contender. IF you must use, relegate to bottom slots of exotics and don't combine with other short odds candidates.
5 (12-1) So-so number two back. However, should get a ground-saving stalking trip...could inherit the lead and hold off the come from behinders. And longshot odds definitely make it a... Contender.
6 (10-1) Very, very, very live longshot. Has faced much tougher AND actually has the best numbers if you extract internal sprint from its route races. As well its last sprint long ago yields a number better than any in here. Prime Contender.
7 (9/5) Has a lot to recommend it. Because of likely favorite status it becomes one of those cases where you include it in all your tickets while hoping it bounces or some trip calamity befalls it.. Prime Contender.
8 (10-1) We're not too crazy about this horse, BUT it has enough speed to clear the field; and at those odds we wouldn't want to chance not having a loose on the lead longshot. Contender...but it's a Win or finish up the track type.
9 (20-1) This speedster seems very up against it-- its early numbers aren't great, it's prone to tardy departures, it's used to being on a lone lead...Today could find itself hung out to the parking lot battling a much faster pace. Its only chance would be rating ability-- but it hasn't demonstrated that ability yet. Toss-Out...although we will never, ever chide you for betting the longest shot on the board.
If you're playing exotics, #7 is the only fave we would play on top...although not on top of any other fave. Of the other two faves, we would completely eliminate #3(in fact, if you have access to a betting exchange, LAY it)... and #4 we would toss from top slot + we would only use underneath longshots.
Who we like in order:
6/7/ then
5/2/ then
8/4
We don't like 3 & 9...would only use in third or fourth slots of exotics, and then ONLY underneath longshots.
Cash a big one.
#3's disaster was bad for others as well in here-- firstly, it knocked #2 to dead last...secondly, it allowed #4 to control the pace & finish in the money. That's horseracing for you.
BTW re #4-- it hovered @ 10-1 odds for quite a while-- we almost, almost posted an upgrade to prime status along with 6 & 7.
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